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SP Mat Latos,Padres, Following his call up by the Padres in July 2009, Mat Latos proceeded to notch 4 victories over his first 5 starts, including a one-hitter against the Reds in late July. Over these impressive 5 games Latos had an ERA of 2.43, a WHIP of .95, and was striking out about 7 batters per nine innings. Unfortunately, the 22 right-hander wasn’t able to keep up pace in 2009, ending the season with a 4-5 record and an ERA 4.62, but don’t let this discourage you from taking a chance on this promising young pitcher in this year’s draft. Latos throws with good control, featuring a fastball in the 95 MPH range, and excellent complimentary pitches with good movement. During his time in the minors, Latos showed steady progress, culminating last year, where he finished with a 1.37 ERA, and a WHIP of only .747. Latos is currently going in about the 25th round in fantasy drafts.
OF Jeff Francoeur,NY Mets, - After his last couple disappointing seasons with Atlanta, it’s easy to forget Jeff Francoeur’s auspicious rookie season back in 2005, when he hit 14 HRs in only 70 games. He followed up his 2005 rookie debut with a 29 HR campaign in 2006, and although his homeruns dropped to 15 in 2007, he still delivered over 100 RBIs for the Braves that year. In 2008, Francoeur reached the low point of his young career, batting just .239 with 11 HRs in 155 games. Right before the Braves gave up on the once promising power hitter in 2009 and traded him to the Mets, he was lumbering through another mediocre season, with just 5 HRs and a .250 average through 82 games. While he is clearly no sure thing entering 2010, it is encouraging that Francoeur hit .311 with 10 HRs in 75 games with the Mets last year, and seems like a great value in the late rounds of fantasy drafts.
To get more from Todd Farino, RC Rizza, and Rhett Oldham. Listen to our weekly podcast at www.blogtalkradio.com/fantasy-baseball-tonight. Listen to us LIVE every Wednesday at 10pm EST for 90 minutes of pure fantasy baseball talk.
Let me start this post by saying that the Blue Jays are a mess across the board. Their offense and bullpen lack defined role players and their starting pitching lacks experience. That being said, they have a whole bunch of possible closers with the addition of Kevin Gregg. I've been stating that I don't think Scott Downs or Jason Frasor make good choices at closer for the Blue Jays. Not only are both pitchers in the final year of there contracts, but Downs is better as a lefty specialist and Frasor as the primary setup man.
So what statement were the Blue Jays making by signing Gregg? It's says allot. First, management isn't confident in the backend of the bullpen and didn't like the choices they had at closer. Granted Gregg isn't the best closer and has knee issues, he will at very least compete for the job and help formulate and credible backend for the Blue Jays bullpen.
I believe at this point the job is Gregg's to lose. The Blue Jay's got the man they wanted. I veteran closer who if healthy can be a reliable 30 save closer. The problem for fantasy owners is he will never get that many saves. I project 22 saves for Gregg and only 27 save opportunities for the Blue Jays as a whole. The Blue Jays just lack offensive support to give them late inning leads.
To get more from Todd Farino, RC Rizza, and Rhett Oldham. Listen to our weekly podcast at www.blogtalkradio.com/fantasy-baseball-tonight. Listen to us LIVE every Wednesday at 10pm EST for 90 minutes of pure fantasy baseball talk.
Elvis Andrus started a blaze when he was announced as the starting shortstop in 2009, uncleeting veteran Michael Young. The hype about this speedster was there early in the year, and I had him as a sleeper. Andrus poses raw talent and energy that is still maturing. In 2009, Andrus stole 33 bases, but there was a more important observation in his stolen bases. In the first two months of 2009 he stole a total of six bases. Watching Andrus early in the year I saw he was hesitant or not sure about trying to steal a base. As he developed that skill, by June he stole more bases (7) then he did in the first two months of the season (6). The point, He's still getting better and we have more to see. Expect Andrus to steal 50+ bases in 2010.
As for batting, Andrus will improve his contact rate, which will certainly improve his average and runs. The RBIs will not be there for him, but every other stat should be very good. Andrus did display some power with six home runs in 2009 and the only thing I can say is this guy can hit a homerun at anytime. He will have the hot summer Texas air to help him, but he also can hit the ball out of any park. The word coming from Texas is that he's focusing on his contact, which would negatively impact his power numbers. I don't expect many home runs, but I will say this, don't be shocked if Elvis Andrus's power numbers amaze us come season end. The True Guru Projections: .288 BA, 8 Hrs, 42 RBI, 103 Runs, 50 SB
To get more from Todd Farino, RC Rizza, and Rhett Oldham. Listen to our weekly podcast at www.blogtalkradio.com/fantasy-baseball-tonight. Listen to us LIVE every Wednesday at 10pm EST for 90 minutes of pure fantasy baseball talk.
Last year was a miserable year for Jake Peavy. Not only was he unhappy with the Padres, but he wasn't happy about being traded especially to the American League. Then throw a long DL stint in there and it was a wasted year for Peavy.
2010 will be much better for the former 29 (in May) year old all star. He headlines a solid pitching staff for the Chicago White Sox and with his agressive style of pitching, Peavy should have no problem adjusting the AL hitters. Last season in three starts, Peavy was 3-0 with 18 strikeouts and a 1.35 ERA in 20 innings. He looked healed and back to the Jake Peavy we all knew from years past. One issue that I've heard around the fantasy baseball world was that Peavy was getting old. He's not even 29 yet. Peavy is in his prime and is ready for a monster season. If all goes well and Peavy stays healthy, he can compete for the Cy Young award.
As far as fantasy baseball relevance, expect lots of strikeouts and enough wins to make him a stud pitcher. His ERA will naturally rise going to the the American League, but overall he is one of the better values in this years draft with an ADP of 85.
The True Guru Projections: 16 Wins, 220 Ks, 3.15 ERA, 1.17 WHIP
To get more from Todd Farino, RC Rizza, and Rhett Oldham. Listen to our weekly podcast at www.blogtalkradio.com/fantasy-baseball-tonight. Listen to us LIVE every Wednesday at 10pm EST for 90 minutes of pure fantasy baseball talk.
As I prepare for my fantasy drafts this season, I tend to really work on the middle round decisions and the late round gems. After all, that is where you win your fantasy leagues. But as I turn my attention to the top of the draft board I am seeing some disurbing trends that threaten to take me out of my comfort zone.
The Top 25 used to be a place that was a very safe place to play. Sure we would debate if Chase Utley were a Top 8 or Top 15 player but we knew he would be there. We would talk about Ryan Howard's batting average or taking a pitcher early, almost always that was Johann Santana. The debates were interesting but in the end, the players were relatively consistent. Not anymore!
As I was looking at our rankings on FantasyBaseballSearch.com, and I was surprised at how some players have risen and fallen. Our site is not afraid of bucking the trend and our site administrator, Todd Farino, encourages counterintuitive thought. Some of the ranking raised an eyebrow so I decided to look at other sites and compare. To my astonishment, beyond Albert Pujois and Hanley Ramirez, no one agrees with how the players should be ranked.
Let's take a look at some sites, look at where the players are ranked, and dedicate a risk factor of one to ten on each of them with one being a safe bet and ten being a high risk selection. The sites I will use are:
FantasyBaseballSearch.com
Yahoo.com
ESPN.com
MockDraftCentral.com (Note: They determined ADP and is not necessarily a rank)
Remember, you don't win your league with your top four picks but you sure as heck can lose your league with bad ones.
JUSTIN UPTON, OF- D'BACKS Brandon Funston is working the man crush over at yahoo with a number 12 ranking. Mock Draft is at 26, ESPN is at 20, and we are #23. I know this guy is full of talent but I just can't see myself late in the first round stepping up and taking Upton as a cornerstone player. Great upside but that would flat out be scary. RISK FACTOR: 9
JOE MAUER, C -TWINS I guess I am the only guy that remembers Joe hitting the operating table like an ambulance chasing attorney! Disjointed Joe was constantly fighting an array of nagging ailments. Last years 28 dingers were awesome but he only had 29 homers in THE THREE PREVIOUS YEARS COMBINED! You know you are getting average but taking him 10 through 17, not me. RISK FACTOR: 8
JASON BAY, OF-NY METS Lot of debate on how CITI Field will affect Bay and just as important, the motivation after the big contract. FantasyBaseballSearch and MDC are almost identical at 24 and 25 but ESPN and Yahoo are at 40 and 38 respectively. I agree with the big boys on this one. I see much greater value further down the draft board and would pass on him anywhere in the first four rounds. RISK FACTOR: 9
DAVID WRIGHT, 3B-NY METS Ten Home Runs, five at home, five on the road, and I am supposed to take him as a bounce back candidate in the second round. Of the four sites, we are the most bullish at 27 Wright is far from a sure thing in the second round. I think he will bounce back but I will not pull the trigger in the first two rounds. RISK FACTOR: 7
TIM LINCECUM, P-GIANTS Great pitcher, Cy Young, filthy stuff, huge K numbers. What is not to like? How about taking him with your 8th pick overall. All four sites are right together so step up and take him in the first round. No way! I am not burning my first round pick on a guy that only won 15 games a year ago and has never won 20 games in his career. If I am taking a pitcher in the first round he has to deliver in ALL catagories. RISK FACTOR: 4
Finally, who is number three. I am still working through this as I slot my draft board and I am still undecided. Here are our choices:
AROD Mr Consistency is back, low steal total but with a full year is still pounding the rock. (YAHOO AND MOCK DRAFT)
Ryan Braun Check out his last three year numbers: .308/34/106/99/16. Yea, still has upside. I wish he played a different position, but I think this is the second best player in baseball. Hanley plays shortstop, so you have to take him number two, but Braun is a beast. (FANTASYBASEBALLSEARCH AND ESPN)
As you can see, the top tier of players is far from a sure thing. I hope we all guess right!
To get more from Todd Farino, RC Rizza, and Rhett Oldham. Listen to our weekly podcast at www.blogtalkradio.com/fantasy-baseball-tonight. Listen to us LIVE every Wednesday at 10pm EST for 90 minutes of pure fantasy baseball talk.
After a slow start last season, Huston Street came on and developed into a top 10 closer for the Rockies. He had some injury issues near the end of the season or his numbers would have been even better. Street could easily make the top five by the end of 2010. The Rockies are a formidable team with a slew of young players. Reasons I like Street are simple. He has a solid K/9, consistent, and he was born to close. At 26, Street is in his prime and heatlhy. Street makes a great #1 closer and he should have no problem.
The True Guru Strategy: Street is one of the highest value closers you can get. The NL West is notorious for tight games, so Street should have plenty of opportunities. If he stays healthy, Street will easily clear 40 saves. Currently his ADP is round 15. That is insane. He's a steal in the seventh round and a good take in the sixth. Wait as late as you can, but don't get burned.
On February 3, we will broadcast our premiere episode of 2010 and we'll do it with a bang. Join hosts Todd "The True Guru" Farino, RC Rizza, and new host Rhett Oldham as we get hot and heavy into fantasy baseball talk. Listen in and have questions ready for our special guest Lenny Melnick of Fantasypros911.com
To get more from Todd Farino, RC Rizza, and Rhett Oldham. Listen to our weekly podcast at www.blogtalkradio.com/fantasy-baseball-tonight. Listen to us LIVE every Wednesday at 10pm EST for 90 minutes of pure fantasy baseball talk.
Padres, Following his call up by the Padres in July 2009, Mat Latos proceeded to notch 4 victories over his first 5 starts, including a one-hitter against the Reds in late July. Over these impressive 5 games Latos had an ERA of 2.43, a WHIP of .95, and was striking out about 7 batters per nine innings. Unfortunately, the 22 right-hander wasn’t able to keep up pace in 2009, ending the season with a 4-5 record and an ERA 4.62, but don’t let this discourage you from taking a chance on this promising young pitcher in this year’s draft. Latos throws with good control, featuring a fastball in the 95 MPH range, and excellent complimentary pitches with good movement. During his time in the minors, Latos showed steady progress, culminating last year, where he finished with a 1.37 ERA, and a WHIP of only .747. Latos is currently going in about the 25th round in fantasy drafts.
NY Mets, - After his last couple disappointing seasons with Atlanta, it’s easy to forget Jeff Francoeur’s auspicious rookie season back in 2005, when he hit 14 HRs in only 70 games. He followed up his 2005 rookie debut with a 29 HR campaign in 2006, and although his homeruns dropped to 15 in 2007, he still delivered over 100 RBIs for the Braves that year. In 2008, Francoeur reached the low point of his young career, batting just .239 with 11 HRs in 155 games. Right before the Braves gave up on the once promising power hitter in 2009 and traded him to the Mets, he was lumbering through another mediocre season, with just 5 HRs and a .250 average through 82 games. While he is clearly no sure thing entering 2010, it is encouraging that Francoeur hit .311 with 10 HRs in 75 games with the Mets last year, and seems like a great value in the late rounds of fantasy drafts.
