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There are several offense players right now that are playing very well that weren't drafted in the top 12 rounds or at all. We'd like to point out some players that you should consider for your team that you could get at a low price in a trade or even find on free agency in your league. If you went high for closers and low for some of these guys congratulations! Kevin Youkilis (40/126, 23 runs, 25 RBI, 6 Hrs, 1 SB, .317 Avg) (19th Round Draft Pick)- We got Youkilis in the 19 th round of our expert draft as a backup. He's filled in admirably in the wake of injuries and has been awesome. Most of the time he's a great start at Fenway and not on the road, but if you can get him cheap or in free agency we recommend it. He also qualifies for 1B and 3B in most leagues. Nate McClouth (45/135, 31 runs, 28 RBI, 9 Hrs, 3 SB, .333 Avg) (NOT DRAFTED)- This guy is on a tear. Most likely you can't get him or even trade for him cause his value is too high. If he goes into a small slump make an offer for him and see if the owner will bite. Otherwise watch his great season. Ryan Church (40/122, 27 runs, 24 RBI, 6 Hrs, 1 SB, .328 Avg) (19-25th Round Draft Pick)- We expected good things out of Ryan when he came over from Washington, but this is amazing. 6 Home runs and a .328 batting average. He is streaky, but I got him in Free Agency last week, so look for him. Conner Jackson (39/115, 27 runs, 28 RBI, 5 Hrs, 2 SB, .339 Avg) (15 - 20th Round Draft Pick)- We were high on this guy coming in and he hasn't let us down. He's pounded out 5 home runs and is batting at a .339 clip. He may still be a free agent in your league. Trade for him if you can, he will only improve his numbers except for average. Jacoby Ellsbury (27/96, 27 runs, 12 RBI, 3 Hrs, 13 SB, .281 Avg) (13-15th Round Draft Pick)- We staked allot of our reputation in this guy and he hasn't let down. He's been slowed by the Red Sox showcasing Coco Crisp for trades and by a minor groin injury. He still has 27 runs and 13 SBs in less than 100 at bats. Get this guy, especially if Stolen bases are big in your league. He is 23 for 23 in his career. Matt Kemp (38/116, 19 runs, 25 RBI, 3 Hrs, 9 SB, .328 Avg) (11-15th Round Draft Pick)- Another player we were high on since we got to see him play plenty out here in Las Vegas. He was drafted in several leagues much higher, but was cut after his slow start. I got him in a few leagues as a free agent. Trade for him if you can, now is the time. Josh Hamilton (40/137, 17 runs, 36 RBI, 7 Hrs, 0 SB, .292 Avg) (12-18th Round Draft Pick) - A great story and his move to Texas has been great for him. 7 home runs and 36 RBI. If you can trade for him, consider it. His stock is still undervalued, so a good deal could be made. Carlos Quentin (28/104, 23 runs, 24 RBI, 8 Hrs, 2 SB, .270 Avg) (NOT DRAFTED)- Not the greatest player on this list, but he's a possible free agent who is absolutely crushing the ball. Ryan Ludwick (40/126, 23 runs, 25 RBI, 6 Hrs, 1 SB, .317 Avg) (NOT DRAFTED)- He's not guaranteed a starting spot, but his play may create one for him. Batting .317 with 6 home runs and he's a free agent in many leagues. Mike Jacobs (29/107, 16 runs, 24 RBI, 9 Hrs, 1 SB, .271 Avg) (20-25th Round Draft Pick) - We humped this guy in Spring Training and now look at him. 9 home runs and 24 RBI. Trade for him! Josh Willingham (31/91, 16 runs, 16RBI, 6 Hrs, 2 SB, .341 Avg) (16-21th Round Draft Pick)- He's hurt right now with some back issues, but before he went down he was batting .341 with 6 home runs. He is the real deal and as long as his back holds up he will be dominating. Trade for him while he's hurt. Great value.
Tuesday, May 6, 2008
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 As we hit early May, after completing over a month of the season, I thought it would be interesting to look at a metric I like to check out every so often: xFIP. This is a statistic provided by The Hardball Times, and is similar to DIPS ERA, using the components of HRs allowed, strikeouts, and walks to estimate what the pitcher's ERA "should" be absent luck. It's easier to calculate than DIPS and gives a reasonable estimate. However, I just described the basic FIP stat. I'm actually going to be using xFIP which normalizes the HRs allowed component to a league-average and is based on the number of HRs allowed per outfield fly. This metric now eliminates the flaw in the basic FIP formula that includes actual HRs allowed, rather than expected HRs allowed, which has been shown to be mostly luck related and regress toward 10%-11% of fly balls allowed. The lists below aren't the exact top 10 leaders and laggards, but rather the more interesting pitchers near the top and bottom. I also only included pitchers who have thrown at least 20 innings so far this year. Just to be clear, an xFIP below actual ERA suggests that the pitcher has been unlucky, whereas an xFIP above actual ERA suggests that the pitcher has been lucky. Read the rest of the article to find out who made each list!
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Here is the latest report on our Expert League:
Sunday, May 4, 2008
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This has been a challenging week for The True GURU. Even though this blog isn't going to give you any real fantasy advice, it's what I'm been thinking about this week and I thought I would share it with the readers. I got a decent hammering on my opinions on closers and how the other experts reasoned their view of them. I think I went too far challenging what an expert is and more so trying to define if someone is an expert. I talked to several of my colleagues in the industry this week and there were many points of view on the question of an expert. One industry expert said, "look at the credentials in writing or fantasy baseball job related experience." Another expert pointed out wins in big leagues like TOUT Wars and such. There were more supporting point of views for experts being able to look into numbers with sabermetrics and find answers just like Bill James and the Boston Red Sox did. Finally, there is the experts who have a history of making great picks whatever the method. As a fantasy manager, I've used expert advice in the past as I'm sure we all have. Some of that advice has been great, some of it has been bad. When I was deciding on how I would do my radio show and blog, I wanted to figure out why that advice was bad and try to deliver advice that was more accurate to more league managers. Let's face it, this discussion between experts on closers almost has little relevance except in the mind of the expert himself if you aren't playing his game. Think about it for a moment. The expert will create his ideal fantasy baseball situation to apply his advice he offers and sell it to you from that POV. Say you took that advice not to take closers early in the draft and you were in a points league with an innings limit. That would probably be bad advice. Even an H2H 5x5 roto league with inning limits, it would probably be bad advice. Hold on, what if it was a roto 5x5 league with no maximum on innings, it would probably be good advice. It's hard if not impossible to give advice on those players that are impacted by league rules. We all know it doesn't matter what league you are in, some players are just golden. I wanted to try and focus on a players potential in several league types (points, roto, H2H) and not just my own and try to lessen the chance bad advice simply on the variation in league rules. Try to combine several theories like Sabermetrics, statistics and others to give a more concrete decision. At least that's my goal. After talking with my friend and co-host Patrick DiCaprio we came up with what we think an expert might be. We think we've solved this fascinating case on what the definition of an expert. In our discussing, we removed the fact that just because you are an amazing writer, a web site reporter/owner, you win allot of leagues, or make great picks is the definition of an expert, but are at the very least fine reasons to support a person's case. What makes us an expert is the people who listen to us, read us, and take our advice. If that advice is good and consistent, they will comeback and they will be the ones who consider us experts. It is our listeners and readers who determine that we are an expert. It has nothing to do with whether I think I'm an expert or if I think Patrick DiCaprio is an expert. Its you (in this case, the reader). You determine if the advice we offer for your team in your league is the advice you want and need. It's you who decides if our overall philosophy matches yours. It's you that determines if our strategy for winning is a strategy you can and will use. That is what its all about. So after this blog you will here nothing more about me or anyone else being an expert. I'll leave that up to you. And by the way, Patrick, RC, an I prefer to be called "gurus" instead of experts if you so offer the courtesy. Todd "The True GURU" Farino The Fantasy Baseball Gurus Show Sundays at 7pm EST on Blogtalk Radio.
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There's No Place Like Home - Article found on ESPN. We wanted to share it with our readers.By AJ Mass of ESPNIf you can't find what you're looking for in your own backyard, perhaps you'll never be able to find it all. While most players will tell you they prefer sleeping in their own bed at night, most of the time they're still able to produce away from the friendly confines of their home ballpark. However, while some players' home numbers glow like a beautiful Technicolor picture, their road numbers come through in dreary black and white. As a fantasy owner, you can hope your fortitude will lead you to do the right thing (bench a player) when you see a twister on the distant horizon, but it takes a lot of nerve to actually pull that trigger, especially when your heart might be telling you something different. Unless you want to end up in bed with a cold compress on your head, you should pick up the warning signs these guys are throwing your way:
Kosuke Fukudome, OF, Cubs (Home batting average: .407; road batting average: .227). Fukudome has "blown in" from Kagoshima, Japan and seems to have found a home inside the ivy-covered walls of Wrigley Field. Away from Wrigley, however, that's a horse of a different color.
Jason Bay, OF, Pirates (Home runs at home: 5; home runs on the road: 1). What's interesting here is the Pirates have only 11 homers at home as a team, and they've actually hit more of them on the "yellow-brick" road.
David Ortiz, DH, Red Sox (RBIs at home: 17; RBIs on the road: 4). Big Papi is more like the Wizard at home; on the road, maybe the scarecrow, flopping around on the ground trying to collect all that lost straw?
Ichiro Suzuki, OF, Mariners (Home stolen bases: 5; road stolen bases: 1).
It's 90 feet between the bases no matter where those bases might happen to reside, but apparently Ichiro's feet simply aren't as fleet if he's not breathing in that fresh "Emerald City" air.
Paul Maholm, SP, Pirates (Home ERA: 0.89 ERA; Road ERA: 8.10 ERA). At home, Maholm is a good, good witch. On the road, his ERA is the most wicked of them all. Have a little fire, Paul! It's time to step up your game and cut down on those long balls you've been giving up in the opposing team's parks.
Jake Peavy, SP, Padres (Home K/9 rate: 9.29; road K/9 rate: 4.50).
We know Petco gives pitchers "da nerve" to take a few chances with their pitch selection, but should it really have that much of an effect on strikeouts? Hmm, sure seems like it does.
Brian Bannister, SP, Royals (Home batting average of balls in play: .183; road BIPA: .288) Sure seems like Bannister knows all too well when he's not in Kansas, er, Kansas City anymore. At the very least, he seems to have the flying monkeys known as luck working against him more when he's on the road.
Troy Percival, RP, Rays (Saves at home: 4; saves on the road: 1):
Okay, so this is more because the Rays win more at home (and also haven't played many on the road yet), but this is also a theme that carries over from last season. The Rays went 29-52 on the road in 2007. If the Rays can't play well enough in their road grays to find the need to call on Troy, then all that rust may well lead to this tin man's demise.
Now that you've been given ample warning of a few players to avoid when the schedule forces them away from the family farm, the choice is yours whether to leave them active. You can be a happy little bluebird and ignore it, but beware of the house falling from the sky and crushing your championship dreams, ruby slippers and all.
Thursday, May 1, 2008
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OK, so I've gotten hammered in the last few days by some of my expert friends in the industry who feel that closers are a one category play and should not be heavily invested in. Even know I completely disagree with that I do understand the argument being presented. However, do represent a new breed of expert. One who not only doesn't think that the roto 5x5 is the almighty way of playing fantasy baseball, but also recognizes that thousands of leagues don't play that style either. I'm working on getting those Numbers to show just how many leagues this year weren't 5x5 roto, but I believe when dispensing advice you have to consider H2H and points leagues in the discussion. Now, my background is primarily H2H, but my theory still stands on roto 5x5. The point I was desperately trying to get across was that when you are drafting, you have to draft according to several factors like rules, what other teams are doing, and your strategy. You also have to make sure you have a balanced team. Now, consider the option that you wait on a closer till the 14 th round and you got low tier closer. OK, sure there is a possibility that he would be a great player, but there is also the chance he can stink and lose his job in April (refer to Corpas). Same goes for hitters, some hitters have terrible season like Andruw Jones who was a top pick until last season. Allot of teams got screwed when they picked him. Of course, nearly no one picked Mike Lowell until the extreme later rounds and he exploded. The point is pick your team where you feel its best. If you want to gaurantee a strong bullpen get Papelbon, KROD, etc.. If you want to take a chance and get more offense, do that. I just don't think your draft philosophy going into the draft should be one of tight set rules like no closers till later. You may not get enough closers! Finally, they are simply not 1 category players. Even in a roto 5x5 league categories are very tight at the end of the year. What if (the dreaded what if) you were in 8 th place in strikeouts nd needed 45 more strikeouts to get to 5 th places getting you 3 more points. Your closers are Brain Wilson, George Sherill, and Gagne. Now imagine your closers are Papelbon, Putz, and Valverde. You get the 50 more strikeouts, and three more roto points and now you are winning the league. I can do the same thing with wins, WHIP, and ERA. Closers are not one category pitchers.
Wednesday, April 30, 2008
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So yesterday I went on The Fantasy Baseball Mafia radio show and hammered it out with Tony Cincotta concerning closers. Tony, at least on the show was in favor of the Melnick position of not necessarily drafting closers. The way he presented this position was to ask me, "When was Jose Valverde drafted last year?" "Where did Joe Borowski get picked?"
He even went on to ask me about JJ Putz. I could tell as these questions were being fired at me that Tony was passionate about his position on this subject, but he threw his expertise and his argument out the door when he decided to attack my position with that kind of evidence.
Here's the deal in this argument and it's almost silly. The Melnick supporters will claim you can get a closer later in the draft or in free agency so why draft early at all?
Now let me clarify my position to make sure it's understood because it's clear Tony Cincotta did not understand my position at all. I believe that there is nothing wrong with taking 1 or 2 closers in the top 11 rounds. Then follow that up in the next 15-16 rounds of the draft by taking 2 more closers. So I certainly support taking closers later in the draft, but the difference is I strongly support the need to get a closer who is stable and has a closer pedigree like a Papelbon or Rivera.
So back to Tony's questions on Valverde, etc... His questions were fluff because of the only question I needed to retaliated with was, "Where was Ryan Braun drafted last year?"
AND BINGO WAS HIS NAME.
You see if you want to take the argument that you can find diamonds in the rough for closing, that's a good strategy and a wise one. You must then also admit that you can find diamonds in the rough for hitting. Last year just to name a few rough diamonds Mike Lowell, Ryan Braun, Hunter Pence, Brandon Phillips, and Curtis Granderson.
Then factor in this argument. This whole debate concerns a 5x5 rotisserie league right? So in a 5x5 rotisserie league there are 5 hitting and 5 pitching categories, so at least according to the general numbers its EVEN amongst the impact hitters and pitchers can have on your total score.
Add one more factor into he argument before we form a solution. The save category is a special one. It is the only category that a single specific player can score in. Only the closer can score a save making the closer a special player because no other player on your team scores in single category like a closer does.
So now we've all established that there are closers and hitters out there late in the draft or in free agency. We also established that in the 5x5 league pitchers are just as important as hitters and that closers carry special value with the saves category. Then what is the issue here? How can you not look at that and say, "Maybe taking reliable proven closers early isn't so bad." But wait there is more. Let's assume you decide to wait, and as we all know when you get into the later rounds, the draft pick choices get slim. All of a sudden starting pitchers and closers seem to jump out at managers looking for a quick pck before their 60 seconds is up and they start vanishing. So if you though you would pick up 3-4 closers in the last 10 rounds think again, you'll be lucky to get 1.
Then consider free agency, will a big name closer develop? Most likely. Will you get said closer in free agency with your high noon draw in free agency, maybe.
So I guess what the Melnick supporters are saying is, "Let's gamble with our team and hope that not only does a dominating closer emerge, but we get him". Let's gamble by ignoring closers and hoping we can right that ship in free agency. LOL.
Sounds like experts to me! Almost like pitch and ditch, does an expert really do that constantly?
Alright, as most of you know I've been running an expert league this season. It is comprised of 12 experts from the industry including Lenny Melnick's partner Paul Greco. Let's examine an expert league and see how the experts have played the closer war.
Statistical evidence from the expert draft:
Number of expert who draft closers in the first 11 rounds: 12 ( 7 of them in the first 9 rounds)
Number of closers drafted in the first 11 rounds: 19
In this league so far the hottest commodity people are looking for in trades in April are CLOSERS. Guess which player is being traded the least and coveted by each team, closers.
So there you have it. the Melnick point of view can work in a perfect world, but in a league of experts where you won't always be the fastest in free agency or the smartest later in the draft its a rookie move and bad advice at best. Maybe Lenny Melnick plays in leagues where he is the far superior manager and can pull off moves like that. None ofthe leagues I play in would let me dominate in that way. I firmly believe that the foundation of your team is your bullpen and it provides much more than saves. It shortens the big season-long roto match or even the H2H variety by giving you a huge advantage in saves. Great closers save your WHIP and ERA by throwing 10-20 inning's per week (depending on the size of your bullpen). They also add valuable strikeouts. Most closers get 1-2 per outing. Trust me, getting 10-15 strikeouts per week helps a ton in that category.
So take care of your closers because they are taking care of you.
Tuesday, April 29, 2008
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OK, The first salvos in this battle were fired much earlier in spring training. Now the war rages into the season over the value of a closer in a 5x5 Rotisserie League or any league type for that matter! Is this mindless over exaggeration of one man's view on this controversy or is it a serious conflict needing to be resolved? Well, after the first month of the season some of the supporters who comprise "Them" came out on Melnick & Greco's radio show last Wednesday (4/23/08). Lenny Melnick and his partner in crime Paul Greco agreed that not only should you not draft closers in the early rounds 1-6, but you should consider not drafting closers at all? They cited on their show that getting Todd Jones or Joe Borowski in the later rounds and getting good offense in the earlier rounds rather then closers was the better strategy. Even getting a closer like Sherill in free agency is better.
 I got two questions for them1. What if someone else grabs these "raindrop closers" from free agency before you do?
2. Is there no love for offense beyond round 7??? Well The True GURU (That's me) thinks they are spot on WRONG. This couldn't be worse advice and this type of strategy is a death blow to any fantasy team in a rotisserie 5x5 league. No one could have predicted how closers would have performed to this point before the season started. IF and I say "IF" you were smart and drafted Franky Rodriguez, Jonathan Papelbon, Joe Nathan, Mariano  Rivera, Huston Street, or Bobby Jenks as opposed to waiting a little longer and getting Manny Corpas or Jose Valverde would you be better off? Or even waiting longer to get Hoffman, Borowski, or Jones? Right now, I'd be doing great drafting closers in the early rounds. Being those closers mentioned above (not Corpas or Valverde) average nearly 8 saves each and .5 blown saves. Why has it got stuck in some experts heads and now the average fantasy baseball managers head that they should value offense over pitching and by a large margin in roto 5x5 leagues? The joke in itself is they both account for 5 categories so they should be even at the very least! In my Humboldt, Nevada opinion, pitching carries just as much power as offense, and RPs or closers are the most important players on your team after 2-3 of your stud offensive players and/or STARTING ACES. There is ONLY one category SAVES that can be scored by ONLY one type of player the CLOSER. Only relief pitchers can get saves, not Justin Verlander, Josh Beckett, or Albert Pujols, just closers a.k.a RPs. So, having a strong bullpen of the "Us" compared to the later drafted bullpen of the "Them" on the average should score big for the "Us" and will shorten the weekly or yearly match up to 9 categories and put your opponent in the hole to start 0-1. The significant here is in a head-to-head league where your opponent has to take 6 of 9 categories to win the week, while you only have to win 5 of 9. Numerically and statistically that is in your favor, and even in a standard roto league, if you can get a 10 score in saves, that's a huge advantage over the rest of the league. Also, closers will throw 68-80 innings per year and will impact the other four pitching categories especially when the average starter goes about 175 innings. Maybe? What about leagues with inning limits? I'd rather have the scoring power of 80 Closer inning's x 5 Closers then to have the scoring power of 5 SP's or mid-level offensive players x 5. Think about it in a league where points per inning mean the difference between winning and losing a championship. So they will impact the other 4 categories, not wins as much, but without a doubt you are looking at per Closer: 50-80 strikeouts, 1.00-2.40 ERA, and a WHIP around .80-1.12. Yes, that will help quite a bit if you consider the big picture where up to 33% of your innings will come from your bullpen. Now look at "Them". Say they draft those Closers later who maybe won't get as many saves, who will get cranked often like Jones, Borowski , Corpas, and find someone with less strikeouts. Well, you might have to assume they are at a disadvantage in this area of the team. Wait a minute, they do have their reasons. "Them" claims getting better offense for the 2 picks you used in rounds 3-6 to get closers is a far superior strategy. Wow, what about some of the offensive players and starting pitchers available after round 6 or even 7? Mmm lets open the imagination bubble and see who we can visualize... Josh Willingham is looking good for a 17th round pick, Ellsbury is great for an 11th round pick. How about Vernon Wells, Paul Konerko, Chris Young, 30 home runs from Brad Hawpe, James Loney, Shane Victorino, Jason Bay, Mike Lowell, Josh Hamilton, Jeremy Hermida, Edgar Renteria, Pat Burrell, Willy Taveras, Aaron Hill, Johnny Damon, Kosuke Fukudome , Placido Polanco, Evan Longoria, Orlando Hudson , Joey, Votto, bla bla bla.....
Finally, all the supporters of "Them" will argue "look how good Sherill, Lyon, Soria, B. Wilson, etc... are doing." Yes, look at how they are doing. Say to yourself wow and pat yourself on the back. After you complete the celebration dance ponder this; Assume for a second that by waiting later in the draft to get closers that you may in fact not get the closers you wanted because other people grabbed them first? That happened to me in the expert league and I ended up with Corpas, Valverde, and Wood. So assume you may not get more then one of the above closers. Then ask yourself this question; Would you want to count on Brandon Lyon or Brain Wilson in September with the championship on the line? Who even knew they'd still be a closer let alone dependableat that time of the year!! Or would you rather have Rivera or KROD knowing you are in ALLSTATE (in good hands). So the wrap up is, you can be with "Us" sitting pretty dominating saves and probably doing well in pitching and getting offensive stars later in the draft or you can be with "Them" and lose your league. Guys, the bottomline is fantasy baseball and drafting is a thinking man's game. If you can't say to yourself that a top-notch closer carries the same value as a late 3rd, 4th, 5th, or 6th round draft pick, well maybe you should reconsider your strategy in order to win. The best experts get the players they have to have in the first 10 rounds of the draft, and then find the diamonds in the last 15 rounds. If the experts who support "Them" expect you to depend on their own advice on drafting closers, then they should know when to take closers over offense in the draft and what valuable offensive stars await them in the later rounds to make up for the offense lost to getting good closers . Only if they are truly "Experts" that is. Todd "The True GURU" Farino
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Sunday, April 27, 2008
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Wow, closers are at it again. Check out the closers report to get the latest update (4/27/2008) on closers: Closer Report
Tuesday, April 22, 2008
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Its still very early, but Jacoby Ellsbury has made quite a splash this season. After all the talk I made of Ellsbury and the beatings I took grabbing him in mock drafts and the disagreements with my co-host Patrick DiCaprio, I've been vindicated. Currently Ellsbury is batting .294 and in only 51 at bats he has 18 runs and 8 stolen bases. In my past blog about my expectations for Ellsbury I said that he would hit 12 home runs, the range being 10-12. After that blog was posted on Melnick and Greco Fantasy Sports I was hammered for my lofty predictions for Ellsbury. Well, its only April 22, but the kid has 3 home runs and 9 RBI to go with his other impressive stats. So here are some facts that I will give to all the Jacoby Ellsbury non-believers: 1. If he is still in free agency in your league, GET HIM! 2. He's not just a 1 or 2 category player. He can get you average, runs, and a few home runs. 3. He is the start in center field. Whether or not Coco Crisp is ready to play or even on the team, he will simply spell Ellsbury now and then. This kid is a star, and will be American League rookie of the year. The True GURU
Monday, April 21, 2008
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Fantasy Baseball Search Expert League Weekly Report Vol.1 Iss 2  Contributors:
Todd "The True GURU" Farino, Patrick "The General" DiCaprio
This was a wild week 3 in our expert league. We had very close match ups and some surprises as well. The two match ups of the week went down to the wire and were decided in the last game Sunday evening. Checkout the results of Fantasy Baseball Search Vs. Fantasy Geeks and Fantasy Fanatics Vs. Fantasy Baseball Generals.
Trades this week: Pro Fantasy Games traded Derek Lee and Derek Lowe to Melnick and Greco for Brandon Phillips and Chad Qualls.
Notable Free Agent Pick Ups:
Players Added:
Players Dropped:
RotoDoc.com 5
Melnick And Greco 4
Troy over at Rotodoc.com played his team to near perfection earning a big win this week over Melnick and Greco (M&G). Even know he was over matched offensively he managed to win both runs and stolen bases relying on key speedster Jacoby Ellsbury who had an amazing 9 runs and 4 stolen bases this week. That alone won him both those categories. M&G's power slid this week and only managed 4 home runs, which was a tie, but managed to take both RBI and average with .284. The key batters for M&G were Chris Young and Victor Martinez.
 On the pitching side Rotodoc pulled out a 3-2 victory taking saves, WHIP and ERA. He had an outstanding week from Jonathan Papelbon with 3 saves along with Huston Street coming out with 2 saves. His starters also performed well with Haren and Ervin Santana notching 3 wins. IN the end it wasn't good enough to stop Paul Greco and his "Pitch and Ditch" strategy who got 6 wins and 37 strikeouts to take those categories. Paul managed to get 6 wins from six different picture's. Felix Hernandez was a star in this one get 8 K's and a 1.00 ERA in his win.
Overall this match up was very tight and could have gone both ways. Rotodoc held off Melnick and Greco's furious pitching attack and still grabbed 3 categories and would have swept the categories if it wasn't for Paul pitcher streaming. Good job to both of you.
Fantasy Baseball Search 6
Baseball Geeks 4
This was one of if not the best match up of the week. It literally went down to the wire to decide if the game wou ld be 5-5 or 6-4. Everything depended on Brad Lidge coming out for his save Sunday night. If he gives up 1 or less hits, Fantasy Geeks wins WHIP, if he gives up 2 or more hits/walks Fantasy Baseball Search retains WHIP. He did give up a walk and a hit. Even know FBS only won 3 offensive categories, he had his best offensive output for the week and ended up crushing his opponent in home runs hitting 14. His offense was led by Chipper Jones and his 4 home runs and .565 batting average. Hanley Ramirez and Josh Willingham also had a great week for me. On the flip side Fantasy Geeks won batting average big with a team average of .335 and also narrowly won runs 43-40. Miguel Cabrera, Carlos Guillen, G. Soto, and Tori Hunter led the way for the Fantasy Geeks.
On the pitching side it was much the same, but much different. Both fantasy owners replied on pitcher streaming to round out their rotations, and the mistake proved to be costly for Fantasy Baseball Search and ended up losing me ERA. FBS easily won saves, but after that nothing was an easy win. I pulled out WHIP 1.43 to Rob's 1.44. Just as close was my 2-1 Wins victory. My pitching staff was guided by great starts from Fausto Carmona and Oliver Perez. Kerry Wood chipped in two perfect innings and a save to notch the WHIP category.
Fantasy Geeks threw 6 starting pitchers and only managed 1 win from a great performance from John Smoltz. Smoltz and Harang combined for 24 of his 49 strikeouts as he easily won that category 49-30. He also took ERA thanks to a rogue and stupid start of Braden Looper by Fantasy Baseball Search. Overall this was an extremely close match up that came down to quick and smart manager moves. Rob made the better moves late, but Todd's smart play early forced Rob's hand into desperation.
Fantasy Baseball Geeks 7
Pro Fantasy Games 3
Enter Pro F antasy Games. In his first match up taking over on Tuesday for the junkie Stoney's Lounge he got slammed by the surging Sean Sultaire of Fantasy Baseball Geeks. FGB's lost two close categories in home runs and RBIs along with average. After that he did not look back. winning runs and stolen bases. Pro Fantasy Games out slugged him with the help of Derek Lee and Alex Rodriguez. FBG's ripped stolen bases 7-1 led by Jose Reyes and Carlos Gomez.
Pitching was a shutout for Fantasy Baseball Geeks 5-0. He clearly dominated all 5 categories and did it with stellar pitching from Rich Hill, Daisuke Matsuzaka, and Adam Wainwright. Also, Billy Wagner and Frank Rodriguez saves an astonishing 7 games that week between them! Pro Fantasy Games pitching struggles and managed only 2 wins and 3 saves. Todd Jones was effective this week, but Clay Buckholz and Derek Lowe were awful. This was a match that Sean Sultaire held from the beginning and never relinquished.
Roto Authority 6
Fantasy Baseball Mafia 3
The luster is clearly off the FBM squad as my number one overall team gives them a licking. Facing the specter of a rout this week, Evan Dickens decides to leave the Wiretap radio show in order to prepare for his eventual demise in week 4. So far RotoAuthority is the best team in the league.
Brian Bannister and George Sherrill were the culprits this week in the FBM loss. Bannister had a 9.00 ERA and 2.00 WHIP as he comes crashing back to earth after a hot start. Sherrill was even worse with a 16.875 ERA and a 2.625 WHIP. SHerrill has traditionally had problems with right handed hitters, aside form a fortunate 2007 with a mere 76 righty batters faced, so it is possible that his tenure could be short lived. This would spell fantasy disaster for the FBM squad, who this week face the Powerhouse Fantasy Baseball Generals team.
RotoAuthority is right now the class of the league, facing the top notch competition of the East division with aplomb. They were one homerun and two RBI away from a complete rout of the team touted by RC Rizza and Todd Farino as the best team in the league.
Mock Draft Central 6
Junkyard Jake 4
Despite his well reasoned pleas and the fact that MDC's logo is a giant pear, RC's entreaties lead only to a moral victory. MDC is looking very tough so far as their top starter and speed strategy has vaulted them to second place in the tough division. RC's team puts up a very fine showing, and helps out the rest of the teams in the Major League division as he keeps Mock Draft Central in everyone's sights.
Still this was a solid showing and wake up call for the Junkyard Jake squad, as they faced one of the Titans of the league with a strong showing. In many weeks Jake would have routed his opponent, he just happened to run into a tough matchup. Jake's plucky squad even beat the vaunted speedsters of MDC 8-7 in steals, with even Conor Jackson pitching in to help the cause. This could have been an 8-2 victory against many other teams.
MDC's pitching heavy strategy is looking very strong so far, as even John Danks, Jair Jurrjens and Cliff Lee, all of whom were waiver bait in the preseason have turned in shining performances under Geoff Stein's leadership. Who knows if it will continue, but MDC has the horses at the top of the rotation to be a contender every week.
Fantasy Baseball Generals 5
Fantasy Fanatics 4
Thanks to Chase Utley and a two homer game, the Generals eke out a victory in the Major League division. Said Utley, "I am tired of hearing my owner made fun of by Todd "Boston Rob" Farino." The Fanatics offense wakes up and gets 4 HR from Manny Ramirez, as the Generals' reliever strategy flops again.
This was a hard fought matchup all week with both teams struggling for ground all week. Despite getting a promotion to the closer's job, Generals' wunderkind Rafael Betancourt is facing some bad luck so far, with a 38% hit rate that will go down henceforth. More leaks are apparent with Takashi Saito having a very rough week with a 13.5 ERA and a 2.5 WHIP. Saito is fine skills wise though with a 2.84 xERA and is beset by a 50% strand rate. So it looks like the Generals are primed for a rebound in the luck department in the near future.
The Fanatics are off to a slow start at 8-19 but they are looking to rebound soon. They were hurt by Mark Buehrle, about whom all should be concerned, and by Chien Ming Wang who just ran into a buzzsaw this week. Buehrle has an xERA of 5.18 and is within normal limits in strand rate so it could be a long season for him. One analyst even predicted Buehrle to have an ERA close to 5.00 this year.
Overall this was a close week for most teams and it doesn't get any easier this week.
Sunday, April 20, 2008
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Yankees 3B Alex Rodriguez left the game today with a quadricps injury. He said he felt it in his swing, and then as he ran down the baseline, he felt a "twinge." Rodriguez has been an incredibly durable player throughout his career, so it is tough to gauge how long this might keep him out of action. Complicating matters further, his wife is about to give birth to a child which would most likely keep him out of action a couple of days. Although there has been no definite reports, it would surprise me to see A-Rod miss a few games as a precaution while he visits that classy wife of his in the hospital. She will be a very good mother, who doesn't need a mother who would wear a shirt that said f#!k you across the back? Remember that last year? Disgusting. The big news of the day was the promotion in Kansas City of SP Luke Hochevar. Fighting Chance Fantasy was all over the breaking news, giving you a crack at adding him to your roster before your competition got to him. I was very excited about his potential, and picked him up in three different leagues. And then he got shelled. Hochevar cruised for 3.2 innings, before getting in trouble with two out in the fourth, when a 1-1 game quickly turned into a 5-1 game. That is the other problem with young pitchers, if they don’t walk everybody, they are prone to the big inning. However, I'm not coming off the bandwagon just yet. Hochevar will start again Friday against the Indians, and let’s hope for better results. Is Jed Lowrie going to stick with the Red Sox in this callup? The answer is most likely no, but he certainly is making a strong case for himself. Lowrie hit two doubles today and drove in his fifth run in just his third major league game. He is now batting .417 and even if he doesn't stick around this time, he is certainly putting the pressure on Julio Lugo to perform this year. David Ortiz has raised his batting average 49 points in the last three days. Big Papi also drove in a run for the third consecutive day, as he looks like he is batting his way out of this season beginning funk. Even though it was a weak homer, that grand slam Friday night was just what the doctor ordered. Ortiz was 2-4 on Sunday, and should be back on track to put up gaudy fantasy numbers again in 2008. He has been pegged as a problem child, but Marlins' hurler Scott Olsen is off to a flying start. Olsen improved to 3-0 after allowing just one run over seven innings with three strikeouts. The potential has always been there, but it has been his attitude that has gotten him in trouble in previous years. Olsen could be quite the sleeper if he can keep up this type of production, and should find his way on to a roster in your league after today’s performance. Four guys hit two home runs today around the majors. In Philly, Mr. Super-Awesome Chase Utley continued his barrage of statistics going deep in the first, and again in the fifth. He is now batting .342, took over the ML HR league lead with his eighth, and has 17 RBI. Not much more you can say, he is one of the best. Hanley Ramirez further proved he was worthy of that high draft pick, as he hit his fourth and fifth homers of the season. After stealing three bases in the last two days, Ramirez decided to flex his muscles on Sunday. He has now driven in 14 runs, and is hitting .366. Hanley does it all, and is proving himself as one of the top two or three guys in fantasy baseball at age 24. After committing an error that put his team behind, Edwin Encarnacion knew he had to make up for it with his bat. Edwin did just that as he started the rally against Eric Gagne that would give the Reds the win in 10 innings. Encarnacion also hit one in the fifth inning to bring his season total to four. He has been a little bit of a disappointment to fantasy owners who thought he might break out this year, perhaps this will be a starting point to an improvement in his production. The Pirates catcher Ryan Doumit finishes this group of double tater guys. He still isn’t seeing everyday at bats over Ronny Paulino, but is making his case for that. With his two solo shots today, Doumit is now hitting .320 to Paulino’s .240, but it is Paulino's defense that continues to keep him in the lineup. Monitor this situation if you have a crappy catcher. Doumit has some offensive potential, so if he starts playing everyday, he is worth a look. The Dodgers outfield situation is probably the most frustrating situation in fantasy baseball in 2008. Andruw Jones, Matt Kemp, Andre Eithier, and Juan Pierre all want to play everyday, however this isn’t beer league softball, there is no shortfielder. The funny thing is, the one guy who is struggling the most, Jones, is the one who almost never sits. But I suppose a $100 million contract will help your PT. The other three are all hitting over .280, while Jones flounders at .169. Let us all thank Scott Boras for negotiating another huge contract for a guy who just doesn’t produce like he should. If you own one of these four guys, you have to hold on to them, they all have too much potential to be cut. This isn't the holy thing to do, but all you can do is root for an injury to one of the other guys who aren’t on your team. Injury News Reigning NL MVP Jimmy Rollins has hit the DL for the first time in his career. A day after actually getting an at bat in a game, Rollins and the Phillies decided that they needed to sit him for two weeks, and bring up someone that they knew would be able to play. Rollins was having a good start to the season, and this is a blow to his fantasy owners. All you can do is wait two weeks, and plug him back into your lineup then. For those who don’t own him, is he available cheap in your league? It was a bad day for quad injuries. Similar to A-Rod, Chipper Jones left Sunday’s game with the same injury as he tried to leg out a double. Apparently Larry injured the quad on April 9th and has been playing with some pain. Bobby Cox was quoted as saying that he is questionable for Monday night, but it isn't something that will keep him out for long. Those of you with daily transactions might want to bench him Monday, and then see what happens from there. Now to the good news on the injury front. Brewers stud pitcher Yovani Gallardo was great in his first start off the DL. Gallardo went seven, gave up just one run and fanned four. Unfortunately, his team couldn't score for him today, so he ended up with a no decision, but this was a good reward for his owners that were patient as they waited for him to come off the DL. Put him back on your active roster immediately, and expect big things from Yovani in 2008. Rays hurler Matt Garza pitched a minor league game today and was pronounced ready to rejoin the rotation. Garza gave up four runs and eight hits in just 3.2 innings, but manager Joe Madden said he would pitch Friday against the Red Sox. He wasn't off to a good start before the injury, so be cautious on expecting too much from him right away. If he is truly healthy, he could make an impact for the rest of the season. Astros 2B Kaz Matsui returned to the lineup over the weekend, and if you are in desperate need of middle infield, he could be a good option. After batting near .300 and stealing 30+ bases in just over 100 games in 2007, Matsui might not run as much for Houston, but that tiny ballpark means his power numbers could be a little better. Further away is Cardinals pitcher Mark Mulder. Mulder threw six shutout innings for the Cardinals AA affiliate, and is supposed to make his third rehab start on Friday. Tony LaRussa has said Mulder will need two more starts before he can prove that he is ready to rejoin the rotation. Mulder is so far away from the time in his career when he was effective, I don't know how much you can expect from him. But if these two surgeries finally fixed whatever has been ailing him for the last few years, maybe he can return to the pitcher he once was. Although it wasn't due to injury, Joba Chamberlain returned to the Yankees bullpen today after tending to his ailing father. Joba didn't retire a batter, gave up two hits and a run. He has been incredibly effective again this season, and as long as he is right mentally, he should continue to be an effective 8th inning guy, before he gets placed into the rotation at some point in 2008. Quick Hitters One day after he trashed the organization, Frank Thomas and the Blue Jays came to a "mutual agreement" to part ways, and the Big Hurt was cut. If you have the roster room, it is ok to stash him, I'm sure some team will scoop him up as their DH. But if you have a shallow roster, it is time to cut him loose. The best pitcher that gets no fantasy love, Aaron Harang was incredible again. Harang gave up just one run over eight innings, and fanned eight. He gets blown up every fifth or sixth start, but the other outings Harang is just awesome. A low ERA, high strikeouts, and now that the Reds are supposed to start to compete, maybe he can top 15 wins. Yanks bulldog Andy Pettitte threw a gem on Sunday as he threw seven shutout innings and whiffed five. Considering his rocky offseason, it is more incredible that Pettitte hasn't allowed more than three runs in any start. Continue to ride Pettitte's great start, as he should continue to produce as he has for the last 10 years. Young starter John Danks has had a great start to the season. Outside of one complete stinker, Danks hasn't allowed more than one run in three of his four starts. Danks threw seven innings of one run ball, fanning eight. Once a member of the Rangers' DVD trio of pitching prospects, it appears that the change in scenery is what Danks needed. If you need a starter, Danks should be available in your league. Another young starter, Jair Jurrjens has been a great surprise for the Braves. Jurrjens went seven and struck out eight as he shut down the Dodgers. He has given up two runs or less in three of his four starts and has struck out a decent number of batters as well. Keep an eye on this guy, and if he has one more good start, he is worthy of a roster spot. A final great appearance by a young pitcher, Dana Eveland continues to surprise and is now sitting at 2-1 with a sub 2.00 ERA. Eveland is still walking guys a little more than you would like to see, but he has been incredibly effective, and if he is still available, see if you can find a spot for him. If John Bowker could play the Cardinals everyday, and get regular at-bats, he could be the next Albert Pujols. Bowker his his third homer of the season on Sunday, all against St. Louis, and has made the most of the playing time that has been given to him. I don't think he is worth an add until he gets everyday at-bats. Visit fightingchancefantasy.wordpress.com for a Beyond the Boxscore article everyday. As always, your questions (adds, drops, trades, etc) and comments are welcome at fightingchancefantasy@gmail.com. I guarantee a response within 18 hours.
Friday, April 18, 2008
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The Fantasy Sports Forum.comEvery season we see plenty of closers who start the season in that role, but don't finish there. The start of this season will be no different and the clock is already ticking on several closers in the NL who do not have a very firm hold on their job. Since the closer position is probably the most scrutinized, it's natural that this topic would lead to a poll, suggested by an owner in one of my leagues, Pat Vitale. So from a poll, a roundtable debate was created. Question:Which closer will be the first to lose his job? Choices:Trevor Hoffman, Kerry Wood, Eric Gagne, Takashi Saito, or Brandon Lyon. Read the debate at: http://www.thefantasysportsforum.com/article.php?ID=259
Thursday, April 17, 2008
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Hey, on The Fantasy Baseball GURUS Show it was discussed that we projected Chone Figgins to have the kind of season, that by the end of it he would be ranked as a #2 or #3 pick. Instead of the 5 th or 6 th round he's been going in. So far Figgins is off to a great start with a .393 batting average. He has 24 hits in 61 at bats, but what is more impressive are his 7 stolen bases. He has added 9 runs and 3 RBI, which neither are impressive enough to warrant comment, but Figgins is proving that not only can he dominate 2 categories, but he can make a run at runs. Get it? Run at runs. Obviously, we think his average will come down, but his stolen bases will remain high and we project him to exceed our SB projections of 55 and now we see him hitting 60. The sky is the limit for this guy. He is playing with relatively no pressure on him in a fun town and on a fun team. Its not like Reyes and the Mets where the pressure on Reyes is extreme. Comparing Reyes, who has been slowed by a hamstring injury is batting .292 with 1 home run, 1 stolen base, 7 RBI and 7 runs. Not to shabby, but certainly not #1 pick material. I was listening to our friend Tony Cincotta over at Fantasy Baseball Mafia and he brought up the same type of questions I brought up in spring training. If you remove stolen bases from Reyes is he just ans ordinary player? Good question Tony. We think he will get his bases in due time, but anyone ad everyone who gave up a second or third round pick for that guy with Hanley Ramirez waiting, and Figgins down in round 5 must be breaking their hands on walls in the Cardinals dugout right now. Get Figgins while you can.
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