The Starting Line
by Evan "the Censor" Dickens
evan@fantasybaseballsearch.com

Now that 2009 is officially behind us (and if you think I'm going to use this space to congratulate a team for buying a World Series championship, you're insane) and the Cy Young awards have been handed out (thankfully to the two who were clearly the most deserving--good job, voters, for not getting caught up in wins), what better time to update my ranking of starting pitchers for 2010. Not a whole lot of movement here, though I've had the chance to consider the final month of the season and digest some of the 2010 rankings released by other sites. As of today, here is my draft order for 2010.

1. Tim Lincecum (no change) - No doubt at all; the only real question is how early he goes in the first round. I am willing to take him seventh (after Pujols, Hanley, A-Rod, Braun, Utley, and Howard). The weed bust is a non-issue.

2. Zach Greinke (+1) - Probably can get him late in the second round. Don't forget that he had 17 fewer walks than Lincecum in 4 more IP.

3. Felix Hernandez (+3) - You know everything about his dominance and incredible fastball movement--but did you know he was 1.1 IP behind Verlander for the major league lead?

4. CC Sabathia (+6) - Had to let my Yankee hatred cool after he became an absolute guarantee in the last six weeks of the season. Other than a mulligan for the last day of the season in Tampa, his previous 10 starts: 8-0, 13 ER in 71 IP. Sick.

5. Johan Santana (-3) - I still think there could be quite a bit of value here, but clearly there won't be a reason to reach for him unless there are absolutely zero injury concerns.

6. Roy Halladay (+1) - Can't understate the value of pitching for a contract (and yet again almost leading the majors in IP while posting a 7.5+ K/9), but subject to change based on an offseason trade.

7. Cliff Lee (+4) - No hyperbole: Game 1 of the World Series was one of the most awe-inspiring pitching performances I've seen in the last 7 years. He is a true ace.

8. Chris Carpenter (-2) - 17 wins in 192 IP is pretty intense, but I am pretty gun-shy about an injury-prone SP with a sub-7 K/9.

9. Dan Haren (-5) - Gave up 5+ ER six times in August and September--still a K/BB freak though, and could thrive on an improved team.

10. Justin Verlander (-1) - Ended up leading the majors in IP--who saw that coming? And does that make anyone else just a bit nervous about next year?

11. Javier Vazquez
12. Adam Wainwright
13. Jon Lester
14. Josh Johnson
15. Jake Peavy
16. Ubaldo Jimenez
17. Josh Beckett
18. Tommy Hanson
19. Yovani Gallardo
20. Matt Cain

Outside looking in: Jair Jurrjens, Ted Lilly, Brandon Webb, Wandy Rodriguez, Jered Weaver

I probably will be updating this again sometime in January. If you have any comments, I love to hear them: just leave them on the blog or email me at evan@fantasybaseballsearch.com. See you soon!

~Evan the Censor

Labels: 2010, rankings, starting pitchers

The Starting Line
by Evan "the Censor" Dickens
evan@fantasybaseballsearch.com

First a note: The absolute most pure analysis of seasonal SP stats would require me to wait until the postseason--but I'm nothing if not anxious. So let's start dissecting 2009!

ERA is a standard fantasy statistic, and for good reason--it is theoretically the correct measurement of any pitcher's ability to limit runs that don't result from fielding errors. Of course, there are plenty of holes, such as the fact that inadequate (but not erroneous) fielding can play a big part in a pitcher's ERA suffering, as well as the fact that bad relievers can make a mess of a starter's ERA by welcoming home inherited runners.

As a result, some saber-heads have developed a metric called Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP) which discards all statistics that a pitcher does not have much control over. I won't break down the entire detail of the equation--you know at this point whether you give any credence to this stat spaz silliness, so you're either on board or you're not--but think of it as a pure distillation of a pitcher's skill peripherals, and a discarding of those pesky luck stats. Ultimately FIP serves as an ERA predictor, before the effects of luck.

Many pitchers have demonstrated the accuracy of FIP. Cliff Lee's 3.00 ERA corresponds tidily with his 3.02 FIP. James Shields' disappointing 4.09 ERA was sadly predicted by his 4.06 FIP. Tim Lincecum's exquisite 2.30 ERA is predicted, and actually surpassed, by his 2.22 FIP (which is why he's so far and away the #1 pitcher next year).

Not all pitchers have such correlation, and that's where you can get some useful information about who to target--and who to avoid--next year. In this, the first of a two-part series, I will look at the unlucky pitchers: the ones with an ERA significantly higher than their FIP. But just in case you don't think there's any use in even looking at this, let's see what you would have known if you looked at pitchers with a high (ERA-FIP) in the last two years. For the record, I'm discarding starters who are fantasy-irrelevant (after all, the difference between a 5.80 FIP and a 4.70 ERA doesn't do much for anyone's team).

Thanks as always to the amazing fangraphs.com, my source for this data.

2007
Jeremy Bonderman - 5.01 ERA vs. 4.19 FIP
Greg Maddux - 4.14 ERA vs. 3.58 FIP
Joe Blanton - 3.95 ERA vs. 3.50 FIP
Wandy Rodriguez - 4.58 ERA vs. 4.18 FIP

Bonderman dropped his ERA nearly a point in 2008 before injury scrapped his season. Maddux was overcome with age as his strikeouts plummeted in 2008, and Blanton was beset by a scary (likely injury-driven) loss of control, though he proved to be quite a prize in 2009. The real story here was Rodriguez who was a lot better in every key statistic in a shortened 2008, and then got really good in 2009.

2008
Kevin Millwood - 5.07 ERA vs. 4.02 FIP
Javier Vazquez - 4.67 ERA vs. 3.74 FIP
Andy Pettitte - 4.54 ERA vs. 3.71 FIP
Josh Beckett - 4.03 ERA vs. 3.24 FIP
Justin Verlander - 4.84 ERA vs. 4.18 FIP

See any of these names that wouldn't adequately described as a "value" pick if you were lucky enough to take them? Although Millwood has trailed off in late season, likely due to some fatigue, he was a much more solid and rosterable option for three months. Pettitte has been a nice surprise, probably as a waiver pickup, as his BABIP has normalized from last year's .339. I still hate Beckett personally but boy he was good for most of 2009. The real prizes here, though, are Verlander and Vazquez, who are both Top 10 pitchers for 2010 that were clearly undervalued at draft time. You would have wanted to take both of these guys at least two rounds higher than they were taken in your league--trust me.

Now let's see what we can learn from this year...

2009
Ricky Nolasco - 5.34 ERA vs. 3.50 FIP
Carl Pavano - 4.82 ERA vs. 3.96 FIP
Derek Lowe - 4.53 ERA vs. 3.78 FIP
Paul Maholm - 4.51 ERA vs. 3.81 FIP
Jason Hammel - 4.35 ERA vs. 3.66 FIP

Let me be clear about this: there is absolutely nothing that Nolasco has done in 2009 that makes me doubt for an instant that he is one of the 20 best starting pitchers in the majors. His K/9 has actually increased to a career-high 9.09 and his walk rate is still nice and low at 2.17. He is simply the unluckiest pitcher in years. If you doubt it, then good, join my league and take him off your draft board. If you believe in statistics, regression, and skill peripherals, you need to draft Nolasco next year. The value you're likely to get for him could be equivalent to the value you got from Chris Carpenter this year. If you don't believe in those things, you probably stopped reading a long time ago.

The other four could provide some value at the back of the draft next year. Pavano's high BABIP and very low BB/9 bodes well for a good fifth starter; he posted a career high K/BB in 2009 (and it's been a long career). Lowe is what he is, a consistent pitcher with a solid ground-ball IP-eating skillset. Maholm is actually very similar to Lowe; a solid GB pitcher with low HR rates and a really good curveball. Hammel is the real dark horse; now that his walks are under control he just keeps getting better and his curveball is devastating. He could prove to be a very solid part of the young Rockies rotation next year and should definitely not go undrafted (and should not be unowned in your league if you're still in contention).

Not all of these guys are guaranteed game-changers for 2010, but they are definitely pitchers that you don't want to underrate at draft time--the odds that they will be significantly better next year are very good, and with Nolasco, I guarantee it.

Stay tuned, at some point soon we'll take a look at the lucky ones that are deserving of multiple grains of salt...see you then!

~Evan the Censor

Labels: 2010, FIP, Jason Hammel, Ricky Nolasco

The Starting Line
by Evan "the Censor" Dickens
evan@fantasybaseballsearch.com

With 2009 winding its way to a close, it's time to start planning for 2010. Since I'm as big a fan of jumping the gun as anyone, why wait any longer to release my first draft of 2010 starting pitcher rankings. It's a very crowded field; even with 5 "outside looking in" picks I had to remove some names from this list. Please be aware it's a very rough draft at this point and there will be plenty of offseason considerations that will affect these rankings, but if I'm doing a 2010 draft today, here is the order I'll be taking starters in.

1. Tim Lincecum - Not really a question at this point; even with only 15 or 16 wins he's a top eight pick in 100% of drafts and has had a two-year run reminiscent of what Pedro and Randy were doing ten years ago. He should be the unanimous Cy Young winner.

2. Johan Santana - This is obviously dependent on him being fully healthy, but try not to forget how fantastic he was before the All-Star break this year.

3. Zack Greinke - The major league ERA leader is good enough to make his own luck; imagine how good his stats would be if the Royals weren't the worst team in baseball.

4. Dan Haren - Standard August swoon hasn't been enough to push his ERA past 2.78, or his major league leading WHIP past an incredible 0.95. Career high K/9 in 2009.

5. Felix Hernandez - Still, somehow, only 23 years old, he has arrived as everything we knew he could be and still has talent we haven't seen yet. Prepare for Felix vs. Greinke Cy Young battles for years to come.

6. Chris Carpenter - On one hand, the 6.8 K/9 is not second-round stuff--but a 2.28 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, and one win for every 10.4 innings pitched? Health will remain a bit of a question, though.

7. Roy Halladay - A repeat performance of a 7.5+ K/9 vindicates the top five pick this year, and don't forget that he'll be pitching for a contract next year.

8. Javier Vazquez - A K/BB that defies the mind--he'll finish in the top five in the majors in Ks, with a WHIP under 1.10. The only question is, can he repeat this, because he's got plenty of mediocre years under his belt.

9. Justin Verlander - The sudden surge in strikeouts has been a joy to behold (he'll likely finish second to only Lincecum), but the same consistency issues as Vazquez above will discount him for one more year.

10. CC Sabathia - The drop in strikeouts is surprising, but his WHIP is still solid and the reality is that he is going to be the odds-on favorite to lead the major leagues in wins every single year, and that can't be overlooked.

11. Cliff Lee
12. Brandon Webb
13. Adam Wainwright
14. Josh Johnson
15. Jon Lester
16. Jake Peavy
17. Clayton Kershaw
18. Josh Beckett
19. Ubaldo Jimenez
20. Matt Cain

Outside looking in: Ted Lilly, Chad Billingsley, Yovani Gallardo, Cole Hamels, Jered Weaver

I would love to hear any comments you have, as I'm certain this list will go through plenty of revision as 2009 wraps up and there is time to digest offseason news. Please post your comments on the blog or email me at evan@fantasybaseballsearch.com and stay tuned, as I'll be updating this every month in the offseason. Happy September!

~Evan the Censor

Labels: 2010, Johan Santana, rankings, starting pitchers, Tim Lincecum, Zack Greinke

The Starting Line
by Evan "the Censor" Dickens
evan@fantasybaseballsearch.com

Clay Buchholz v CHW, 8/24/2009
ND, 4.2 IP, 7 ER, 6 H, 3 BB, 3 K

On ESPN's excellent Baseball Tonight earlier this week, Buck Showalter was discussing the potential strength of the Red Sox as a playoff team. One of his main points was that "They're going to bring one of the best top three starter groups you're going to see." And I immediately ran to my computer to see who the Red Sox had traded for, because the last I knew it was Josh Beckett, Jon Lester, and then a lot of prayer and fasting until Beckett's next turn. I can only assume he was talking about Tim Wakefield--which still doesn't make that much sense--but I sure hope he wasn't talking about Clay Buchholz, bcause I'll tell you something: I don't trust Buchholz any more in a playoff rotation than I do in a fantasy rotation, which is to say not at all.

Buchholz made his way to the rotation on a fill-in basis for an injured Tim Wakefield, and then as John Smoltz and Brad Penny melted down in tremendous fashion and Justin Masterton was traded for Victor Martinez, there was just no reason for him to leave the rotation. And fantasy owners, with their eye on his beautiful no-hitter from 2007 and his gaudy 2009 minor league stats (8.09 K/9, 2.97 K/BB, 2.36 ERA), probably ran to grab him not wanting to miss out on the next big thing.

The first three starts in the bigs were confirmation, especially the 3.0 GB/FB rate and 11 K's in 15 IP. Not superstar numbers, and too many walks, but Buchholz was looking like a real pitcher, and schmucks like me got him on the roster just in time for the 8/2 start @ Baltimore--where Buchholz blew his load completely, giving up 7 ER in 4 horrible IP. I expelled him to purgatory immediately and watched him throw three straight exceptional quality starts: 4 ER in 20 IP, including at the Yankees and at Toronto. The cracks were there, though: in those 20 IP Buchholz only struck out 10 and walked 9. Those are two stomach-turning ratios. In case you missed those and only saw the 15-day ERA, you probably grabbed him for Monday's start against the White Sox--where he gave up 7 ER in 4.2 IP.

I quit! I give up! Clay Buchholz clearly has no interest in showing any type of consistency at this point and his major league ratios are positively unacceptable. He is throwing 61% of pitches for strikes, just barely above the minimum acceptable. His 5.65 K/9 in 43 major league innings, which should be an adequate sample size, is completely inferior to his 8.6 K/9 of prior major league stints. And his walks, always a sore spot, are well past infected now--a 4.81 BB/9, if sustained, would be among the highest in the major leagues.

A 1.17 K/9 rate means you can't shut guys down, and you can't stop putting guys on the bases. If Buchholz's 15% HR/FB rate continues, a lot of guys are going to take a base on balls and then jog home when the next guy hits the ball out of the park. Pitchers like Buchholz who are oozing immaturity are torture, because they turn their best matchups into gasoline (see: Oliver Perez). I don't trust Buchholz anywhere, for any reason right now, because as long as I don't trust him he'll probably keep winning games. All it will take is one waiver wire pickup in a moment of weakness and here comes the disaster. Pass on Buchholz for 2009 and pray that someone can help him straighten his control out soon.

~Evan the Censor

Labels: Clay Buchholz

The Starting Line
by Evan "the Censor" Dickens
evan@fantasybaseballsearch.com

Zach Duke v CIN, 8/22/2009
W, 7.0 IP, 2 ER, 8 H, 0 BB, 2 K

Raise your hand if you honestly have been paying no attention to Zach Duke this year. It's okay, I don't particularly blame you, but if that's the case you probably aren't aware that he's actually 22nd in the major leagues right now in ERA with a sparkling 3.38--and you're probably similar to the owners in the 38% of Yahoo leagues where Duke is a free agent right now. Is there a reason for this guy to remain unowned?

Duke is not a strikeout pitcher, and that's putting it mildly. His 4.32 K/9 is even more unsettling when you see what a substantial increase it is from the previous two seasons. Duke is the definition of a contact pitcher, with some of the highest contact% and swing% rates in the majors, and of course when you rely on contact like that you need your offspeed stuff to be particularly sharp--and that's where Duke has seen his biggest improvements. His curveball and his changeup combined now make up 36.7% of his pitches, way up from 30.1% and 30.7% in 2008 and 2007, and the measurement of their effectiveness is significantly higher. Batters are falling for these pitches and making bad contact and Duke is seeing that pay dividends. Meanwhile his 2.03 BB/9 rate is at a career low and he's throwing an above-average 65% of pitches for strikes.

Is there reason to be afraid? Absolutely; there's definitely some room for regression with a .282 BABIP and a 77% strand rate. But there was plenty of room for positive regression after the last two seasons, where Duke's average BABIP was an unfortunate .343. It's a bit scary to see Duke's GB/FB rate falling from 1.73 in 2007 down to a career low 1.34 this year, but he's been able to keep the ball in the park. The Pirates have been surprisingly helpful too, giving him a very strong 5.36 RS/9 (as demonstrated in Saturday's game).

I doubt I'll be targeting Duke in a draft next year--after all, the Pirates pitchers take musical chairs as the staff ace every year and if you've taken Perez in 2005, Duke in 2006, Snell in 2007, Gorzelanny in 2008, or Maholm in 2009, you remember the pain. But the true Zach Duke is a serviceable pitcher with very low strikeouts who will provide positive support to your WHIP and ERA in good matchups. As long as his offspeed pitches keep working, that's worth more than 62% ownership.

Remember that I'm always happy to analyze specific starting pitchers when requested--just email me at evan@fantasybaseballsearch.com. Enjoy the end of summer!

~Evan

Labels: Zach Duke

The Starting Line
by Evan "the Censor" Dickens
evan@fantasybaseballsearch.com

Jarrod Washburn v SEA, 8/20/2009
ND, 6.0 IP, 6 ER, 5 H (4 HR), 1 BB, 4 K

I've been greatly amused by all the hand-wringing that has taken place after Washburn was traded from Seattle to Detroit and subsequently has had three of his four starts turn into major disasters (16 ER in 19.1 IP). What happened to the front line starter, the sub-3 ERA, the Cy Young contender that Detroit was able to steal away without even giving up a Top 10 prospect?

What happened is that Seattle knew they had lightning in a bottle and had to dump it before the rocket came back to earth (sorry for the ugly mixing of metaphors). Hopefully some fantasy owners were able to do the same, because all the evidence was there that this was still Jarrod Washburn. The same Jarrod Washburn who averaged 5.12 K/9 over his last three full seasons; the same Jarrod Washburn who pitched with a 0.88 GB/FB rate over those three seasons; the same Washburn with kind of a mediocre 88-mph fastball that he relies on pretty heavily.

Does that sound like an appealing mix? Low GB/FB rate, very limited strikeouts, not a very heavy fastball. Sounds like a recipe for a lot of runs, and guess what: it should be, if not for the glorious and elusive BABIP. Washburn still holds the lowest BABIP in the majors with an amazing .243--and you know by now if you're a reader that there is all kinds of luck in there, and all kinds of room for regression. There have been no improvements in Washburn's key skill stats, other than a slightly reduced walk rate. His K/9 is still a middling 5.23; his GB/FB rate is still 0.88; he still throws an unimpressive 62% of pitches for strikes. This is not a Jason Marquis-type situation, where there is demonstative improvement in a key statistic. It's still Jarrod Washburn, folks, but a version of Washburn that's been fortunate to see so few balls fall in. What's happened with the Tigers so far may be the beginning of the wheels coming off of that.

Sorry folks, but this is regression. Hopefully you had Washburn on your team long enough to make some positive strides, but would you have wanted him on your fantasy team at this time last year? Then why would your decision be any different now?

"It was good while it lasted." - Sawyer Brown

Labels: Jarrod Washburn

The Starting Line
by Evan "the Censor" Dickens
evan@fantasybaseballsearch.com

Aaron Harang v WAS, 8/14/2009
L, 7.0 IP, 2 ER, 6 H, 3 BB, 6 K

The question was asked in frustration last year as the dust settled on Aaron Harang's horrific season: how could a pitcher who had such a solid recent track record put together such a pitiful 6-17 record over the course of the season? Now, 75% of the way through the following season, the same hair-pulling agony is taking place: how does someone post a 6-14 record before the second half of August has even arrived? Can a pitcher like Harang really lose 35 games in two years? How does any major league pitcher lose that much?

The answer is not found in deviation's in Harang's skill set over the last three years, since he was quite the stud in 2007. His K/9 has fluctuated in a healthy range of 7.5-8.5, consistent with his career average; walks, though hitting a career low in 2007, are still safely below 2.5. Despite deviations, no complaints about a 3.37 K/BB rate that Harang is putting up in 2009, just outside the top 15 among ERA-qualifying starters. No real quarrels either with his 0.87 GB/FB rate; it's not great but not far away from the 0.96 and 0.97 he put up in his great '06 and '07 seasons. HR/FB rate is up, but not appreciably; Harang has really never made avoiding the long ball part of his game.

What Harang does is wear down lineups and go deep in games. He finished #1 and #4 in total batters faced in 2006 and 2007 and is on pace to again finish in the top ten this year. I can't stress how important that level of stamina is--and I think the Phillies' bizarrely miscalculated signing of Pedro Martinez will demonstrate that. Harang is subject to bad innings sometimes, but he is allowed to stay in and clean up some of that damage. It's the difference between babied pitchers who give up 6 ER in 2.2 IP, and guys like Harang who give up the same 6 ER but get to spread it out over 7 IP anyway. The effect on your ERA over a season is more helpful than you realize.

As long as Harang's K/BB is intact and he's able to throw such an efficient 3.8 pitches per batter faced, I want him on my team--so why are these losses coming? It's a combination of two pretty obvious stats: horrid hit rate and ghastly run support. The latter is probably the more excruciating, especially if you're an underachieving Reds hitter, and it continues a trend. In 2008 Harang's 3.22 RS/9 was third-worst in the majors; teammate Johnny Cueto was tenth-worst at 4.19 (as a point of reference, the major league median was 4.95). Now 2009 is here...meet the new Reds, same as the old Reds; Harang yet again has the third-worst RS/9 in the majors at 3.30. Of the ten pitchers with the worst run support in baseball this year, only Shields has a BABIP above .300 (.308). Harang's BABIP after Friday's start is now a torturous .342, tied with Ricky Nolasco and second only to Jason Hammel among ERA qualifiers.

The BABIP is definitely due for some regression so Harang's 1.47 WHIP is on its way down, I'm pretty comfortable with that. But it's hard to assume that at some point, the Reds offense is simply going to start producing at least the level they provide Arroyo (4.57 RS/9). Maybe if they did, Harang wouldn't have had to take four losses in quality starts this year, but assuming that will change is dangerous. I am not about to bench him against decent matchups, but if he ends up in tough duels with good starters, his offense is prone to fold like one big red lawn chair. If that keeps happening, the ratios will improve and strikeouts will still be good, but those elusive wins will have to be found in other places.

I'm always happy to cover specific pitchers based on requests--please e-mail any requests you have to evan@fantasybaseballsearch.com. Have a great weekend!

~Evan the Censor

Labels: Aaron Harang