The Starting Line
by Evan "the Censor" Dickens
evan@fantasybaseballsearch.com

With 2009 winding its way to a close, it's time to start planning for 2010. Since I'm as big a fan of jumping the gun as anyone, why wait any longer to release my first draft of 2010 starting pitcher rankings. It's a very crowded field; even with 5 "outside looking in" picks I had to remove some names from this list. Please be aware it's a very rough draft at this point and there will be plenty of offseason considerations that will affect these rankings, but if I'm doing a 2010 draft today, here is the order I'll be taking starters in.

1. Tim Lincecum - Not really a question at this point; even with only 15 or 16 wins he's a top eight pick in 100% of drafts and has had a two-year run reminiscent of what Pedro and Randy were doing ten years ago. He should be the unanimous Cy Young winner.

2. Johan Santana - This is obviously dependent on him being fully healthy, but try not to forget how fantastic he was before the All-Star break this year.

3. Zack Greinke - The major league ERA leader is good enough to make his own luck; imagine how good his stats would be if the Royals weren't the worst team in baseball.

4. Dan Haren - Standard August swoon hasn't been enough to push his ERA past 2.78, or his major league leading WHIP past an incredible 0.95. Career high K/9 in 2009.

5. Felix Hernandez - Still, somehow, only 23 years old, he has arrived as everything we knew he could be and still has talent we haven't seen yet. Prepare for Felix vs. Greinke Cy Young battles for years to come.

6. Chris Carpenter - On one hand, the 6.8 K/9 is not second-round stuff--but a 2.28 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, and one win for every 10.4 innings pitched? Health will remain a bit of a question, though.

7. Roy Halladay - A repeat performance of a 7.5+ K/9 vindicates the top five pick this year, and don't forget that he'll be pitching for a contract next year.

8. Javier Vazquez - A K/BB that defies the mind--he'll finish in the top five in the majors in Ks, with a WHIP under 1.10. The only question is, can he repeat this, because he's got plenty of mediocre years under his belt.

9. Justin Verlander - The sudden surge in strikeouts has been a joy to behold (he'll likely finish second to only Lincecum), but the same consistency issues as Vazquez above will discount him for one more year.

10. CC Sabathia - The drop in strikeouts is surprising, but his WHIP is still solid and the reality is that he is going to be the odds-on favorite to lead the major leagues in wins every single year, and that can't be overlooked.

11. Cliff Lee
12. Brandon Webb
13. Adam Wainwright
14. Josh Johnson
15. Jon Lester
16. Jake Peavy
17. Clayton Kershaw
18. Josh Beckett
19. Ubaldo Jimenez
20. Matt Cain

Outside looking in: Ted Lilly, Chad Billingsley, Yovani Gallardo, Cole Hamels, Jered Weaver

I would love to hear any comments you have, as I'm certain this list will go through plenty of revision as 2009 wraps up and there is time to digest offseason news. Please post your comments on the blog or email me at evan@fantasybaseballsearch.com and stay tuned, as I'll be updating this every month in the offseason. Happy September!

~Evan the Censor

Labels: 2010, Johan Santana, rankings, starting pitchers, Tim Lincecum, Zack Greinke

The Starting Line
by Evan "the Censor" Dickens
evan@fantasybaseballsearch.com

After our initial jaunt through some of my favorite skill-based statistics, it's now time to turn the tables and look at statistics that identify some of the luckier (and unluckier) pitchers in baseball--which is the real information that you want when targeting buy and sell options as trade season hits the critical point over the next week.

The theory behind HR/FB is this--for the most part, with sensible adjustments for homer-friendly ballparks, you can reasonably expect that across the major leagues, fly balls are relatively interchangeable and will tend to leave the park at the same rate. In other words, if a pitcher is going to give up a fly ball, it's not because of any particular skill that more of his fly balls stay in the park than leave. The major league average is right about 10%--for any given pitcher, you can reasonably expect one out of every ten fly balls to land in the stands. Significantly higher or lower percentages indicate some potential regression--and that regression is that much more important for pitchers with higher FB%.

By the way, it's very important to note that this is a luck statistic only for pitchers. Clearly, it's a different story for batters, but pitchers are assumed to face an even distribution of batters over the course of a season.

First, some historical perspective on HR/FB:

2004
Best: 5.6% - Tim Hudson, OAK
Worst: 18.2% - Greg Maddux, CHC

2005
Best: 4.9% - Dontrelle Willis, FLA
Worst: 18.9% - Derek Lowe, LAD

2006
Best: 5.7% - John Lackey, LAA
Worst: 16.9% - Cory Lidle, NYY

2007
Best: 4.1% - Chris Young, SD
Worst: 17.7% - A.J. Burnett, TOR

2008
Best: 5.1% - Cliff Lee, CLE
Worst: 16.1% - Brandon Backe, HOU

Pretty evident that those with unsustainably low HR/FB percentages had them in years that we can look back on and say "Boy, they had a great year that year...what happened afterwards?" Lackey is a notable exception, and Lee looks almost as good...for now. But you'll notice by looking at any given pitcher's five-year history that if they play in a relatively neutral park, HR/FB is subject to wild fluctuations. In my world, we call that Luck!

Now, let's look at the top and bottom five so far this year.

Five Best 2009 HR/FB through 7/22/2009:
1. 2.9% - Zack Greinke, KC
2. 3.3% - Joel Pineiro, STL
3. 4.7% - Clayton Kershaw, LAD
4. 4.8% - Dallas Braden, OAK
5. 4.9% - Tim Wakefield, BOS

Seem like a few pitchers on that list are having unexpectedly good years? Here's part of the reason. Greinke's total absense of HR is downright scary and there's no possible way it can continue for him. He's not exactly a major GB pitcher, either; a 38% FB rate bears out to a guaranteed ERA increase on the horizon. Not saying he's a fraud--he's just not this good! Don't worry too much about Pineiro who has the best GB rate in the majors, but Wakefield is on the other end of the spectrum--his 45% FB rate is a massive danger sign and he has never posted a HR/FB lower than 9% before. When he comes back, brace yourself for the regression (that, seriously, you always knew was coming).

Five Worst 2009 HR/FB through 7/22/2009:
1. 18.0% - Josh Geer, SD
2. 16.8% - Chris Volstad, FLA
3. 16.5% - Braden Looper, MIL
4. 15.9% - Ricky Romero, TOR
5. 15.4% - Trevor Cahill, OAK

Five relatively unappealing pitchers? Partially because their unlucky HR rate has showed you the worst they have to offer. Volstad and Cahill in particular have high enough FB rates, and enough talent, that you might be able to make the case that there is speculative skill underneath their mediocre numbers. Don't go running to pick these guys up--but don't let their 2009 difficulties define them in the future.

Tomorrow, the Censor's favorite acronym to pronounce as a single word! See you then.

~Evan the Censor

Labels: Chris Volstad, HR/FB, Tim Wakefield, Zack Greinke