The Starting Line
by Evan "the Censor" Dickens
evan@fantasybaseballsearch.com

With 2009 winding its way to a close, it's time to start planning for 2010. Since I'm as big a fan of jumping the gun as anyone, why wait any longer to release my first draft of 2010 starting pitcher rankings. It's a very crowded field; even with 5 "outside looking in" picks I had to remove some names from this list. Please be aware it's a very rough draft at this point and there will be plenty of offseason considerations that will affect these rankings, but if I'm doing a 2010 draft today, here is the order I'll be taking starters in.

1. Tim Lincecum - Not really a question at this point; even with only 15 or 16 wins he's a top eight pick in 100% of drafts and has had a two-year run reminiscent of what Pedro and Randy were doing ten years ago. He should be the unanimous Cy Young winner.

2. Johan Santana - This is obviously dependent on him being fully healthy, but try not to forget how fantastic he was before the All-Star break this year.

3. Zack Greinke - The major league ERA leader is good enough to make his own luck; imagine how good his stats would be if the Royals weren't the worst team in baseball.

4. Dan Haren - Standard August swoon hasn't been enough to push his ERA past 2.78, or his major league leading WHIP past an incredible 0.95. Career high K/9 in 2009.

5. Felix Hernandez - Still, somehow, only 23 years old, he has arrived as everything we knew he could be and still has talent we haven't seen yet. Prepare for Felix vs. Greinke Cy Young battles for years to come.

6. Chris Carpenter - On one hand, the 6.8 K/9 is not second-round stuff--but a 2.28 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, and one win for every 10.4 innings pitched? Health will remain a bit of a question, though.

7. Roy Halladay - A repeat performance of a 7.5+ K/9 vindicates the top five pick this year, and don't forget that he'll be pitching for a contract next year.

8. Javier Vazquez - A K/BB that defies the mind--he'll finish in the top five in the majors in Ks, with a WHIP under 1.10. The only question is, can he repeat this, because he's got plenty of mediocre years under his belt.

9. Justin Verlander - The sudden surge in strikeouts has been a joy to behold (he'll likely finish second to only Lincecum), but the same consistency issues as Vazquez above will discount him for one more year.

10. CC Sabathia - The drop in strikeouts is surprising, but his WHIP is still solid and the reality is that he is going to be the odds-on favorite to lead the major leagues in wins every single year, and that can't be overlooked.

11. Cliff Lee
12. Brandon Webb
13. Adam Wainwright
14. Josh Johnson
15. Jon Lester
16. Jake Peavy
17. Clayton Kershaw
18. Josh Beckett
19. Ubaldo Jimenez
20. Matt Cain

Outside looking in: Ted Lilly, Chad Billingsley, Yovani Gallardo, Cole Hamels, Jered Weaver

I would love to hear any comments you have, as I'm certain this list will go through plenty of revision as 2009 wraps up and there is time to digest offseason news. Please post your comments on the blog or email me at evan@fantasybaseballsearch.com and stay tuned, as I'll be updating this every month in the offseason. Happy September!

~Evan the Censor

Labels: 2010, Johan Santana, rankings, starting pitchers, Tim Lincecum, Zack Greinke

The Starting Line
by Evan "the Censor" Dickens
evan@fantasybaseballsearch.com

Johan Santana v PHI, 5/6/2009
W, 7.0 IP, 0 ER, 2 H, 3 BB, 10 K

I was going to write something about Zach Greinke on Monday...but really couldn't come up with any words. It was, and is, hard to put the numbers he is generating into words. After six starts, he is putting up numbers across the board that are phenomenal. He is the darling not just of fantasy, but of sports in general.

But Johan Santana is still the best pitcher in the major leagues. And he's doing it with his team gagging on a spoon behind him.

We've now seen six starts out of both Santana and Greinke. They now share the major league strikeout lead with 54--but Santana has done it in five fewer innings. Greinke's ERA of 0.40 is surely extraordinary, but Santana has now pushed his below 1.00 as well--equally absurd. Both are the only pitchers in the majors other than Dan Haren with a sub-0.90 WHIP. No one would ever complain about either leading their fantasy team--but observe, for a moment, the situations that Santana continues to thrive in.

Wednesday, his team is facing their hated archrivals the Phillies, at their new home Citi Field. It's a playoff atmosphere. Santana's offense, as usual (he now has the fifth-worst run support in the majors, exactly what you want to be doing for your ace), puts up nothing--and he brushed it off, as only he can do, throwing 72% of his pitches for strikes and carving up hitters. Striking out double digits while throwing only 3.7 pitches per batter faced is incredible. And it took until the seventh inning before Phillies errors finally got a run on the board, and the Mets were able to sweat out the 1-0 victory. It is disgusting how poorly the Mets support him, but that's not the point.

Before the season started, there were pundits who thought Santana wasn't even the top-ranked SP anymore. They figured it had to be time for injuries to bite him. They were in love with Lincecum's strikeouts and CC's durability, and somehow glazed over the fact that Santana had just put up a career-high ERA. They laughed at me (sometimes live on the air) when I said Santana was still a first-rounder. How does this 12.25 K/9 rate look now? Wish you had used your first round pick on that instead of Jimmy Rollins? And Santana does this under constant, excruciating pressure for a franchise that provides no run support in a city that grinds and flattens its superstars. And he has yet to bat an eyelash.

I take nothing away from Greinke, he's clearly the best pitcher in the AL right now and the MVP of fantasy considering his draft position (and I don't know how I managed to avoid drafting him in any league). But his city is just happy to be at .500--and his division is terrible. He pitches with no pressure; he's basically freerolling at this point. The fate of the Big Apple and the dramatic circus of the Mets weighs on the shoulders of Johan Santana with every start, and all he does is look better and better every day. He is so obviously the greatest pitcher of his era, and he is in his prime and pitching like an absolute superstar when it matters most. That's why there is still none better than Johan Santana.

~Evan the Censor

Labels: Johan Santana