The Starting Line
by Evan "the Censor" Dickens
evan@fantasybaseballsearch.com

Jarrod Washburn v SEA, 8/20/2009
ND, 6.0 IP, 6 ER, 5 H (4 HR), 1 BB, 4 K

I've been greatly amused by all the hand-wringing that has taken place after Washburn was traded from Seattle to Detroit and subsequently has had three of his four starts turn into major disasters (16 ER in 19.1 IP). What happened to the front line starter, the sub-3 ERA, the Cy Young contender that Detroit was able to steal away without even giving up a Top 10 prospect?

What happened is that Seattle knew they had lightning in a bottle and had to dump it before the rocket came back to earth (sorry for the ugly mixing of metaphors). Hopefully some fantasy owners were able to do the same, because all the evidence was there that this was still Jarrod Washburn. The same Jarrod Washburn who averaged 5.12 K/9 over his last three full seasons; the same Jarrod Washburn who pitched with a 0.88 GB/FB rate over those three seasons; the same Washburn with kind of a mediocre 88-mph fastball that he relies on pretty heavily.

Does that sound like an appealing mix? Low GB/FB rate, very limited strikeouts, not a very heavy fastball. Sounds like a recipe for a lot of runs, and guess what: it should be, if not for the glorious and elusive BABIP. Washburn still holds the lowest BABIP in the majors with an amazing .243--and you know by now if you're a reader that there is all kinds of luck in there, and all kinds of room for regression. There have been no improvements in Washburn's key skill stats, other than a slightly reduced walk rate. His K/9 is still a middling 5.23; his GB/FB rate is still 0.88; he still throws an unimpressive 62% of pitches for strikes. This is not a Jason Marquis-type situation, where there is demonstative improvement in a key statistic. It's still Jarrod Washburn, folks, but a version of Washburn that's been fortunate to see so few balls fall in. What's happened with the Tigers so far may be the beginning of the wheels coming off of that.

Sorry folks, but this is regression. Hopefully you had Washburn on your team long enough to make some positive strides, but would you have wanted him on your fantasy team at this time last year? Then why would your decision be any different now?

"It was good while it lasted." - Sawyer Brown

Labels: Jarrod Washburn

The Starting Line
by Evan "the Censor" Dickens
evan@fantasybaseballsearch.com

Sorry for the unexpected delay there, folks--didn't mean to leave you hanging for a week on what I've always described as my favorite acronym to say as a word; namely, BABIP, also known as Batting Average on Balls In Play, also known as "BAH-Bip", also known as the greatest pure measurement of luck that you can find for starting pitchers. I have done plenty of explaining before on exactly why this proves out to be a luck statistic--and why having the best, i.e. lowest, BABIP is a sure sign of a pitcher about to come back to earth (and vice versa). So no lengthy explanations there, let's just look at the numbers, beginning with some recent historical background:

2004
Best: .247 - Al Leiter, NYM
Worst: .338 - Derek Lowe, BOS

2005
Best: .252 - Barry Zito, OAK
Worst: .343 - Zack Greinke, KC

2006
Best: .237 - Chris Young, SD
Worst: .337 - Rodrigo Lopez, BAL

2007
Best: .252 - Chris Young, SD
Worst: .350 - Scott Olsen, FLA

2008
Best: .245 - Dave Bush, MIL
Worst: .366 - Kevin Millwood, TEX

Surprised Kevin Millwood has had a major rebound this year? Surprised that Zack Greinke and Derek Lowe have been much better recently than they were during the years noted above? Surprised that Barry Zito has been such an enormous bust of a free agent? Such is the nature of BABIP, a completely fluky statistic that one pitcher can lead the league in one year, and finish at the bottom the very next (which Scott Olsen almost did). Research and intelligence has proven that hit rate (the casual name for BABIP) is a big deal in identifying who's going to crash, and who's due for a rise.

So who is it anyway? Here's where we stand for 2009:

Five Best 2009 BABIP through 7/31/2009:
1. .249 - Jarrod Washburn, DET
2. .250 - Scott Feldman, TEX
3. .251 - Dan Haren, ARI
4. .254 - J.A. Happ, PHI
5. .257 - Mark Buehrle, CWS

All five of these pitchers are pitching above their hands--even Haren is not as good as his heavenly stats, which everyone should know by now, and I hope that no one has actually bought into Feldman or Happ who are both ready to crash. But Washburn and Buehrle are two pitchers who likely carry significant value in your fantasy league and are equally likely to have showed you all the best parts of their season so far. Investigating sell-high opportunities for them could be be decision that wins you a championship.

Five Worst 2009 BABIP through 7/31/2009:
1. .348 - Ricky Nolasco, FLA
2. .347 - Aaron Harang, CIN
3. .347 - Todd Wellemeyer, STL
4. .341 - Jon Lester, BOS
5. .335 - Carl Pavano, CLE

Nolasco was such an obvious buy-low when he went down to the minors, at the time sporting an unreal BABIP over .450. He is, again, pitching like the pitcher that I knew he was and that's only going to continue, so unfortunately not much buy-low opportunity left there. The real opportunity here may be Harang who has been frustrating owners for more than a year now, and the scariest part of this list: Lester is actually even better than we've seen so far.

Hope you've enjoyed my wild ride through stat-land--nothing I love more! I'll get back to analyzing individual pitchers soon; if you have any requests, as always please email them to evan@fantasybaseballsearch.com. See you soon!

~Evan the Censor

Labels: Aaron Harang, BABIP, Jarrod Washburn, Mark Buehrle, Ricky Nolasco