PT's Podcasts

Pitch or Ditch 4/30/10

2010-04-30T09:12:00.000-07:00

Pitch or Ditch 4/30/10

Danks vs Pettitte
Lackey vs D. Hernandez
Blackburn vs Carmona
Cahill vs Morrow
Bannister vs Niemann
Pineiro vs Porcello
Lewis vs Lee
Stammen vs Nolasco
Niese vs Kendrick
Wandy vs Hanson
Cueto vs Penny
Bush vs Richard
Morton vs Billingsley
Lopez vs Wells
Cook vs Zito

RED- PITCH
BLUE- PITCH 'If you feel lucky'

Jason Swist

To get more from Todd Farino, RC Rizza, and Rhett Oldham. Listen to our weekly podcast at www.blogtalkradio.com/fantasy-baseball-tonight. Listen to us LIVE every Wednesday at 10pm EST for 90 minutes of pure fantasy baseball talk.

Pitch & Ditch 4/29/10

2010-04-29T08:16:00.000-07:00

I am just going to quick post today. Being a Thursday not many games I i like most pitchers.

Pitch or Ditch 4/29/10

Burnett vs Matusz
Floyd vs Feldman ( Floyd was one pitcher I was targeting in the preseason but I need to see him bounce back 1st before I start him.)
Duchscherer vs Romero
Pavano vs Willis
Hochevar vs Garza (As if you don't know by now I am a fan of Hochevar)
Arroyo vs Oswalt
Kennedy vs Lilly
D. Davis vs LeBlanc
Jurrjens vs Wainwright
Burres vs Kershaw

RED- PITCH
BLUE- PITCH 'If you feel lucky'

Jason Swist

To get more from Todd Farino, RC Rizza, and Rhett Oldham. Listen to our weekly podcast at www.blogtalkradio.com/fantasy-baseball-tonight. Listen to us LIVE every Wednesday at 10pm EST for 90 minutes of pure fantasy baseball talk.

Pitch or Ditch 4/27/10

2010-04-26T22:33:00.000-07:00

Hey What's up everyone? I am just sitting back watching Giants beat on Roy Halladay and drinking me some Carlos Sliva Kool-Aid. This just doesn't sound right. We where unable to see if Oliver Perez pitch a Gem due to a rain out but due to this teams in weekly leagues get Johan Santana for two starts. Also if anyone has any question about there teams feel free to leave there questions in the comment section of this post and I will try to get to them as fast as i can.

Pitch or Ditch 4/27/10

Hughes vs Millwood (Hughes is showing why he won the 5th starters job and has another good match up)
Liriano vs Verlander (Liriano 3-1 career vs DET and 64 k's in 51 innings. Verlander 5-6 career vs MIN and 70 k's in 90 innings i thought it would of been the other way with these guys numbers.)
Buchholz vs Marcum (Both guys been pitching good but not many wins to show for it.)
Sheets vs W. Davis (I am surprise in both of them so far but I would like to see more strikeouts in both.)
Buehrle vs C.J. Wilson ( I am not a fan of Buehrle, too safe for me. I like upside and Wilson has showed me he has it.)
Snell vs Greinke (Greinke needs to pitch complete games to get the wins and I feel and with Seattle bats not doing much he has a chance for his 1st win of the season.)
Talbot vs Saunders (Saunders 2-0 career vs CLE and should in prove that number.)
Kuroda vs J. Santana ( Not going to throw Johan numbers out there we all know they are sick but Johan is still not his self yet and not sure what we will get from him game to game. If Kuroda is the pitcher I really feel he is understanding the American game and can be LA's best pitcher.)
Garland vs A. Sanchez ( Stay away from both)
Harang vs Norris (Hanang needs to start winning and pitching or he will be in the Pen just like BIG Z is. Norris needs to try to go longer into games, if he can do that can be a real sleeper this year.)
L. Hernandez vs Gorzelanny ( As I been saying Livan is a inning eater and in point leagues get him in your line up. In my NL only money league I picked him up so I am all in with you guys.)
(PIT-?) vs Wolf ( The Brew Crew and The Wolf Pack who is 9-1 career vs Pittsburgh's just owns this guys.)
Lowe vs Carpenter ( Mr. Rhett Oldham can sit back and enjoy this win from Carpenter.)
E. Jackson vs Jimenez (Jimenez pitch count is something we need to keep an eye on and if you can get a great deal I would think about moving him in a trade.)
Moyer vs Wellemeyer ( Noting here play another day.)

Bonus Game: Haeger vs O. Perez ( I made it threw yesterday telling you to start Perez, Will my luck run out?)

RED- PITCH
BLUE- PITCH "If you feel lucky"

Jason Swist

To get more from Todd Farino, RC Rizza, and Rhett Oldham. Listen to our weekly podcast at www.blogtalkradio.com/fantasy-baseball-tonight. Listen to us LIVE every Wednesday at 10pm EST for 90 minutes of pure fantasy baseball talk.

Pitch or Ditch 4/26/10

2010-04-25T21:00:00.000-07:00

Hello everyone, Sorry about Morton yesterday he hurt me also. Richard pitched good but still can't get the win. I am take some Big time gambles today but I feel lucky.

Pitch or Ditch 4/26/10

Beckett vs Eveland (Not a fan Beckett but you have to. Eveland 2-0, 1.93 but 0-2, 17.36 vs BOS last year... So ?)
Bonderman vs Harrison ( I am Pass on this game.)
King Felix vs Davies ( The King will keep on Rock & Rolling)
Huff vs Weaver ( Weaver is ACE and a great match up so what would you think?)
Kuroda vs O. Perez ( I was thinking to make them my "If you feel lucky" picks. Perez is a BIG gamble worth to take.)
Latos vs J. Johnson ( I am pitching both but don't feel Latos will win.)
Lannan vs Silva ( I not drinking the Silva Kool-aid but I take a free sample.)
Duke vs Gallardo (Gallardo need to start getting some wins)
Hudson vs Lohse (If you have better options pass on both)
Haren vs Hammel (Haren needs to catch a break, he has 75k's in 71 career innings vs COL)
Halladay vs J. Sanchez (The best match up of the day but Halladay is unstoppable.)

RED- Pitch
BLUE- If you feel Lucky

Jason Swist

To get more from Todd Farino, RC Rizza, and Rhett Oldham. Listen to our weekly podcast at www.blogtalkradio.com/fantasy-baseball-tonight. Listen to us LIVE every Wednesday at 10pm EST for 90 minutes of pure fantasy baseball talk.

Pitch or Ditch 4/25/10

2010-04-24T22:16:00.000-07:00

Sorry everyone about not posting the last few days had some computer issues and was use my cell phone as my computer and didn't know how to post the blog on there. I am going to change the set up a little. The players in RED will be my Pitch and non-red will be ditch. I also will set it up on with the pitching match ups that day and I will still give you my 'If you feel lucky' picks. those will be in .
Having a few days to regroup I ready to get on a hot streak.

Pitch or Ditch 4/25/10

J. Vargas vs Danks (Danks looks like the ace of White Sox staff.)
Morrow vs Price (I thought Price would have more up and downs, I am sold on Morrow let's see it again.)
Slowey vs Bannister ( Slowey's last game 9k's where did that come from?)
Porcello vs Lewis ( I say start both guys Porcello may get the win but Lewis may have better stats.)
Vazquez vs Kazmir ( I not ready yet to throw in Kazmir. Vazquez + NYY = You pitch him.)
D. Hernandez vs Wakefield ( This maybe Wakefield last start with Dice-K coming back. I take a chance.)
Masterson vs G. Gonzalez ( Both have upside and both have good match ups)
Morton vs Myers (Before Morton last game he was pitching OK just had some bad luck, I need to roll the dice with someone.)
Billingsley vs Olsen ( If he wasn't play WAS I would of sat Billingsley.)
Wells vs Bush ( Not much here move on.)
Penny vs Cain ( Cain is no Zito lol. Penny 2-0 he he for real?)
Kendrick vs Lopez
Volstad vs De La Rosa ( I am a fan of Volstad but I don't like the match up. Can De La Rose be the next Rockie to throw a No No?)
Richard vs Bailey ( Richard is due to get a Win and pitching well, I would like to see a few more k's)
Hanson vs Pelfrey ( Hanson is a Star can Pelfrey keep shining?)

Jason Swist

To get more from Todd Farino, RC Rizza, and Rhett Oldham. Listen to our weekly podcast at www.blogtalkradio.com/fantasy-baseball-tonight. Listen to us LIVE every Wednesday at 10pm EST for 90 minutes of pure fantasy baseball talk.

Pitch & Ditch 4/20/10

2010-04-20T06:45:00.000-07:00

We Have a bunch of games today and I am leaning towards pitching most guys but I am not 100% sold on most of them. With a lot of games I was able to find a good group of gambles that can payoff.

Pitch & Ditch 4/20/10

No Brainer : (Your staff ace or Top Pitcher)

Billingsley
Haren
Vazquez ( Has a nice match up and should get his 1st win.)
Porcello ( I don't see how he that good of pitcher but some how does it each week.)
Price ( Up graded from a gamble to an ace in just a few weeks. WOW)

Pitch: (Good pitchers or good match ups)

Kendrick ( I thought we would of got more from him. I will give him another shot.)
Hanson
De La Rosa ( He could be the next to throw a no hitter for COL.)
Zambrano ( We never know what we will get from him but if you drafted him i guess you have to play him.)
Pelfrey ( Win, Save last week can he do it again.)
Bailey ( This is another guy I thought we would get more from.)
Myers ( He has been looking good so far but he does play for HOU.)
Sanchez ( The K machine)
Lohse
Lewis ( I feel its a bad match up for him and everyone that picked him up last week may drop him this week.)
Masterson ( I don't think the 9 strikeout last week where for real.)
Slowey
Kazmir ( If I had him I would wait one more week.)
Danks
D. Hernandez

Ditch: (Bad Pitchers or bad match ups or I would like to scout the pitcher more.)

Olsen
Bush
Wakefield ( he better watch out Dice-K will be back soon.)
Gonzalez ( has upside but Stay far away from him this week.)
Davies
Vargas

If you feel Lucky: (A Gamble)

Volstad ( His kid has a great match up and has been throwing good. Throws a lot of Balls but I watch his last game and there where a few borderline calls.)
Latos ( I Seem to been pumping this kid so I may have to up grade him to just pitch.)
Morton ( 9 to 1, K to walk. He has been pitching good just some bad luck.)
Eveland ( I haven't seen him pitch yet but the numbers don't lie.)

Jason Swist

Pitch & Ditch 4/18/10

2010-04-18T08:58:00.000-07:00

Not much time today to go into detail but I was able to view the match up last night. Good Luck

Pitch & Ditch 4/18/10

No Brainer : (Your staff ace or Top Pitcher)

Wainwright
Hamels
Garza
Lester
B. Anderson

Pitch: (Good pitchers or good match ups)

Smith
Jurrjens
W. Rodriguez
Dempster
Zito
Kershaw
Arroyo
Santana
Romero
Pavano
Matusz
Harden
Scherzer
Floyd
Pettitte

Ditch: (Bad Pitchers or bad match ups or I would like to scout the pitcher more.)

D. Davis
Marquis
Robertson
Maine
Maholm
Kennedy
LeBlanc
Snell

If you feel Lucky: (A Gamble)

Hochevar
Carmona ( This one for you Dan Jay.)

Jason Swist

Pitch & Ditch 4/17/10

2010-04-17T08:52:00.000-07:00

Good Morning guy's and girls. I am still trying to work out my bugs and trying to get on a hot streak. I could just add some big names to 'If you feel Lucky' but I don't want to go the easy way. I view all the match ups on CBS, ESPN and MLB.com, looking over the career stats vs each team and trying to give you my best guess on who to Pitch or Ditch. Over all most know who to pitch but i just want to fine that needle in the haystack for you. So hope today I can turn things around.

Pitch & Ditch 4/17/10

No Brainer : (Your staff ace or Top Pitcher)

Jimenez
Lincecum
Nolasco
Santana ( He just doesn't look like the Santana we all know. So what don't we know?)
Shields
Peavy ( Needs to prove he is a Top pitcher.)
Verlander ( I am ready for him to have a 10-12 K today.)

Pitch: (Good pitchers or good match ups)

Kawakami
Oswalt
Wolf
Haeger ( I believe we saw his best pitching day ready this year.)
Moyer
Garcia
Cueto
Correia ( I am can see 7-8 Ks today but doesn't win enough games.)
Saunders
Duchscherer
Buchholz
Feldman ( Seem to win but through match up.)
Burnett
Westbrook ( Not as bad as I thought he was.)
Rowland-Smith ( I saw a lot from him in spring but hasn't carried over to the regular season.)

Ditch: (Bad Pitchers or bad match ups or I would like to scout the pitcher more.)

McCutchen
Benson ( I wold put his wife out there before him.)
Tallet
Meche
Blackburn
Guthrie

If you feel Lucky: (A Gamble)

Gorzelanny ( Didn't get the win his outing, this time VS HOU so I am Rolling the dice.)
L. Hernandez ( He is hungry for innings if in a Points league give him a shot.)

Jason Swist

Pitch & Ditch 4/16/10

2010-04-16T07:57:00.000-07:00

"Hey everyone, With no early games today I took longer to get out my picks so i could view the match ups and I was able to dig up some real gambles. I hope everyone was able to grab Bud Norris yesterday and didn't listen to me about Tim Wakefield.

Pitch & Ditch 4/16/10

No Brainer : (Your staff ace or Top Pitcher)

Gallardo ( Needs to step it up, Got paid last week and has to show he is an Ace.)
Halladay ( Is a good pitcher. LOL)
Carpenter ( Has to out pitch Oliver Perez what do you think?)
Weaver ( He is on his way to becoming an Ace.)
Greinke ( Will he get any help from his team.)
Sabathia
F.Hernandez

Pitch: (Good pitchers or good match ups)

Lowe
Wellemeyer ( Is a gamble but Had a nice spring, i am giving him another chance.)
Duke ( Is winning but not helping much anywhere else.)
Jackson
Marcum ( I am keeping an eye on him still not sure if he is for real.)
Beckett ( I dropped him from No Brainers.)
Baker
Millwood
Braden
CJ Wilson ( Another guy I am watching.)
Buehrle ( One the the safest bets out there.)

Ditch: (Bad Pitchers or bad match ups or I would like to scout the pitcher more.)

Hammel
Paulino
Silva ( Don't think it will take much longer for the NL bats to Figure him out.)
Lannan
Sanchez
Padilla
Perez
Garland
W.Davis ( Rookie is a Rookie, I will be scouting out his game tonight.)
Talbot

If you feel Lucky: (A Gamble)

Bonderman ( Looked good he's 1st time out and pitching at SEA just a great match up.)
Leake ( Yes a Rookie but this kid is special.)"

Pitch & Ditch 4/15/10

2010-04-14T19:45:00.000-07:00

Hey everyone, Sorry didn't post the blog yesterday but I did do one but had issues downloading it.
My 'If you feel lucky' pitcher where G. Gonzalez and C.Volstad.

Pitch & Ditch 4/15/10

No Brainer : (Your staff ace or Top Pitcher)

De La Rosa (Last year was his break out but he is breaking out again as a Ace.)
J. Johnson ( Slow start but feel he should bounce back this game.)
Haren

Pitch: (Good pitchers or good match ups)

Hudson
Zambrano ( You never know what you are going to get)
Happ ( 3-0 Career VS. WAS, I am betting on he will be 4-0 after this game.)
Harang ( I am not a fan and he doesn't win enough but If you draft him you need to put him in your line up.)
Wakefield ( 15-4 Career VS MIN they just have trouble vs Wakefield.)
Sheets
Hughes ( The 5th starter in New York always has a chance to win a game.)

Ditch: (Bad Pitchers or bad match ups or I would like to scout the pitcher more.)

Suppan
Olsen
Lohse
Pelfrey
Liriano ( I am still need to see him do something before I pitch him.)
D. Hernandez
Kazmir ( Coming of the DL and VS the NYY I am Passing.)
Huff ( a nice 1st game but that maybe his best game all year.)
Garcia
Eveland

If you feel Lucky: (A Gamble)

Latos ( Just has too much talent and I am gambling most time he pitches.)
Kuroda ( I really think he is understanding the American game.)
Norris ( 2-0 VS STL last year through match up and coming off a bad game that he only last 2.2 innings but HOU has to win some games and Norris does give you the K's)

To get more from Todd Farino, RC Rizza, and Rhett Oldham. Listen to our weekly podcast at www.blogtalkradio.com/fantasy-baseball-tonight. Listen to us LIVE every Wednesday at 10pm EST for 90 minutes of pure fantasy baseball talk.

Pitch & Ditch 4/13/10

2010-04-12T21:01:00.000-07:00

Not many big name pitchers today and most options are clear cut. I did find one gamble that should pan out.
I am having trouble finding the probable pitchers the night before I am using CBS, MLB, ESPN and finding different match ups on each site. so you may see some of my picks not even pitch that today I guess because its to early in the season for the site to know the probables.

Pitch & Ditch 4/13/10

No Brainer : (Your staff ace or Top Pitcher)

Floyd ( TOR is hot so maybe a through match up but Floyd has upside.)
B. Anderson ( Yesterday I said SEA was better then OAK I think I was wrong)
Kershaw
Cain (Has the best match up of the night.)

Pitch: (Good pitchers or good match ups)

Niemann
Matusz (I was wrong his 1st start and I maybe wrong again)
Willis ( Good match and I will give he a chance)
Romero
E. Santana
Pettitte
Arroyo ( had a good 1st game and I don't think he can do it back to back)
Kennedy

Ditch: (Bad Pitchers or bad match ups or I would like to scout the pitcher more.)

Bannister
Fister
Maine
G. Smith
Maholm ( I do have him in a deep NL league hope i didn't wait too long to cut him.)

If you feel Lucky: (A Gamble)

Robertson ( As I said last week we should be able to get a few good starts out of him before NL hitters figure him out.)

Jason Swist
PrimeTime21

Pitch & Ditch 4/12/10

2010-04-12T10:20:00.000-07:00

Hey everyone, Sorry for the late blog but the little one been keeping me busy.
Lets take a quick look at last week. My "if you feel Lucky" Category pitchers that maybe on your wavier wire. I want 4-6 with 59 strikeouts, Not over all great but from the wavier wire I will take it. Hopefully I can start the week off hot, I am able to view more stats and review the match ups in more details now that we have some games in the book.

Pitch & Ditch 4/12/10

No Brainer : (Your staff ace or Top Pitcher)

Jurrjens ( Great match up in SD.)
Lester (Todd's Man crush)
Hamels ( Looking to go 2-0)
Nolasco
Garza ( My Man Crush)
Wainwright
Peavy

Pitch: (Good pitchers or good match ups)

Harden ( Just keep pitching and stay off the DL)
Scherzer ( I can see a BIG K day)
Dempster
W. Rodriguez ( IF Houston Win's a game its because of him.)
Cueto
Zito ( In 2nd half form This could be the year SF paid for.)

Ditch: (Bad Pitchers or bad match ups or I would like to scout the pitcher more.)

Carmona ( Still don't believe)
Pavano ( 1st starter at Target Field remember this for Trivia Pursuit)
Guthrie
Tallet
D. Davis
Marquis
Correia ( Can get some K's but I don't feel lucky with him)
Duchscherer ( I am still waiting on him)

If you feel Lucky: (A Gamble)

Hochevar ( My Sleeper this year but would like to see more K's from him)
Ohlendorf ( SF doesn't have the greatest line up and in a pitchers Park, Let roll with him)
Rowland-Smith ( SEA is a better team then OAK and RRS has skill)

Jason Swist
Prime Time 21

Pitch & Ditch 4/11/10

2010-04-10T23:36:00.000-07:00

Just a quick email tonight, I will review the week during the Sunday night game.

Pitch & Ditch 4/11/10

No Brainer : (Your staff ace or Top Pitcher)

Verlander
Burnett
Shields
J. Santana
Halladay
Lincecum

Pitch: (Good pitchers or good match ups)

Buehrle
Buchholz
Saunders
Braden
Oswalt
Jackson
Wolf
Feldman
Haeger
G. Smith
Garland

Ditch: (Bad Pitchers or bad match ups or I would like to scout the pitcher more.)

Westbrook
Millwood
Blackburn
Meche
Snell
Leake

If you feel Lucky: (A Gamble)

A. Sanchez
Marcum

To get more from Todd Farino, RC Rizza, and Rhett Oldham. Listen to our weekly podcast at www.blogtalkradio.com/fantasy-baseball-tonight. Listen to us LIVE every Wednesday at 10pm EST for 90 minutes of pure fantasy baseball talk.

Pitch & Ditch 4/10/10

2010-04-09T20:55:00.000-07:00

Hey everyone, Saturday starts will be the 1st time this season that we will see pitchers
there 2nd time around and we all hope our Big ace will turn things around. On Sunday night i will go over my 'If you feel lucky' picks and see how i did. Most of these pitchers are on the wavier wire or on your bench. Also on Sunday i will go over 2 start pitchers that you may want to pick up if you are in a weekly league.

Pitch & Ditch 4/10/10

No Brainer : (Your staff ace or Top Pitcher)

Sabathia (8.44 ERA and playing a Hot Tampa team looks like a slow start for CC this year.)
King Felix( Going to Texas will be through but I do feel SEA bats will wake up.)
Beckett (9.64 ERA and playing KC should be able to cut that ERA in half.)
Greinke ( Bad Match he will have to do it all to get the Win.)
Gallardo ( He just got paid $$$$$)
Carpenter
J. Johnson
Haren ( Always a fast starter but trade him after the All Star break.)

Pitch: (Good pitchers or good match ups)

Baker ( I thought he was overrated this preseason.)
Weaver ( Angels offense doesn't look go yet but Weaver is becoming an Ace.)
Harang( Will give you the K's but just can't win games.)
Sheets(3.60 ERA in his 1st start I want to see more but you have to start him.)
Moyer
Kawakami

Ditch: (Bad Pitchers or bad match ups or I would like to scout the pitcher more.)

Garcia (He still pitches?)
Harrison
D. Hernandez
Eveland
Bonderman
Talbot
O. Perez
Paulino ( Was one of my deep deep sleepers K's will be there but nothing else.)
Padilla ( Was one of my 'if you feel lucky' his 1st start this time I am not rolling the dice.)
McCutchen
Hammel
Gorzelanny

If you feel Lucky: (A Gamble)

W.Davis ( The Rays look like the real deal this year and the NYY bats are still sleeping. We all know what Lenny Melnick would say " A rookie is a rookie" But i am picking him up and taking a chance.)

Latos (Has the stuff to be a future ace but doesn't have the head. Yes he has a through match up and at Coors but he could put things together at anytime and have a great game.)

Wellemeyer ( Looked good in spring and won the 5th spot in the rotation plus does have the hottest hitter in baseball in Edgar Renteria)

Jason Swist
PrimeTime21

To get more from Todd Farino, RC Rizza, and Rhett Oldham. Listen to our weekly podcast at www.blogtalkradio.com/fantasy-baseball-tonight. Listen to us LIVE every Wednesday at 10pm EST for 90 minutes of pure fantasy baseball talk.

2010 Top 20 SP, version 2

2009-11-21T16:15:00.000-08:00

The Starting Line
by Evan "the Censor" Dickens
evan@fantasybaseballsearch.com

Now that 2009 is officially behind us (and if you think I'm going to use this space to congratulate a team for buying a World Series championship, you're insane) and the Cy Young awards have been handed out (thankfully to the two who were clearly the most deserving--good job, voters, for not getting caught up in wins), what better time to update my ranking of starting pitchers for 2010. Not a whole lot of movement here, though I've had the chance to consider the final month of the season and digest some of the 2010 rankings released by other sites. As of today, here is my draft order for 2010.

1. Tim Lincecum (no change) - No doubt at all; the only real question is how early he goes in the first round. I am willing to take him seventh (after Pujols, Hanley, A-Rod, Braun, Utley, and Howard). The weed bust is a non-issue.

2. Zach Greinke (+1) - Probably can get him late in the second round. Don't forget that he had 17 fewer walks than Lincecum in 4 more IP.

3. Felix Hernandez (+3) - You know everything about his dominance and incredible fastball movement--but did you know he was 1.1 IP behind Verlander for the major league lead?

4. CC Sabathia (+6) - Had to let my Yankee hatred cool after he became an absolute guarantee in the last six weeks of the season. Other than a mulligan for the last day of the season in Tampa, his previous 10 starts: 8-0, 13 ER in 71 IP. Sick.

5. Johan Santana (-3) - I still think there could be quite a bit of value here, but clearly there won't be a reason to reach for him unless there are absolutely zero injury concerns.

6. Roy Halladay (+1) - Can't understate the value of pitching for a contract (and yet again almost leading the majors in IP while posting a 7.5+ K/9), but subject to change based on an offseason trade.

7. Cliff Lee (+4) - No hyperbole: Game 1 of the World Series was one of the most awe-inspiring pitching performances I've seen in the last 7 years. He is a true ace.

8. Chris Carpenter (-2) - 17 wins in 192 IP is pretty intense, but I am pretty gun-shy about an injury-prone SP with a sub-7 K/9.

9. Dan Haren (-5) - Gave up 5+ ER six times in August and September--still a K/BB freak though, and could thrive on an improved team.

10. Justin Verlander (-1) - Ended up leading the majors in IP--who saw that coming? And does that make anyone else just a bit nervous about next year?

11. Javier Vazquez
12. Adam Wainwright
13. Jon Lester
14. Josh Johnson
15. Jake Peavy
16. Ubaldo Jimenez
17. Josh Beckett
18. Tommy Hanson
19. Yovani Gallardo
20. Matt Cain

Outside looking in: Jair Jurrjens, Ted Lilly, Brandon Webb, Wandy Rodriguez, Jered Weaver

I probably will be updating this again sometime in January. If you have any comments, I love to hear them: just leave them on the blog or email me at evan@fantasybaseballsearch.com. See you soon!

~Evan the Censor

Stat SPaz 9/20/09: FIP vs. ERA, pt. 1

2009-09-20T20:53:00.000-07:00

The Starting Line
by Evan "the Censor" Dickens
evan@fantasybaseballsearch.com

First a note: The absolute most pure analysis of seasonal SP stats would require me to wait until the postseason--but I'm nothing if not anxious. So let's start dissecting 2009!

ERA is a standard fantasy statistic, and for good reason--it is theoretically the correct measurement of any pitcher's ability to limit runs that don't result from fielding errors. Of course, there are plenty of holes, such as the fact that inadequate (but not erroneous) fielding can play a big part in a pitcher's ERA suffering, as well as the fact that bad relievers can make a mess of a starter's ERA by welcoming home inherited runners.

As a result, some saber-heads have developed a metric called Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP) which discards all statistics that a pitcher does not have much control over. I won't break down the entire detail of the equation--you know at this point whether you give any credence to this stat spaz silliness, so you're either on board or you're not--but think of it as a pure distillation of a pitcher's skill peripherals, and a discarding of those pesky luck stats. Ultimately FIP serves as an ERA predictor, before the effects of luck.

Many pitchers have demonstrated the accuracy of FIP. Cliff Lee's 3.00 ERA corresponds tidily with his 3.02 FIP. James Shields' disappointing 4.09 ERA was sadly predicted by his 4.06 FIP. Tim Lincecum's exquisite 2.30 ERA is predicted, and actually surpassed, by his 2.22 FIP (which is why he's so far and away the #1 pitcher next year).

Not all pitchers have such correlation, and that's where you can get some useful information about who to target--and who to avoid--next year. In this, the first of a two-part series, I will look at the unlucky pitchers: the ones with an ERA significantly higher than their FIP. But just in case you don't think there's any use in even looking at this, let's see what you would have known if you looked at pitchers with a high (ERA-FIP) in the last two years. For the record, I'm discarding starters who are fantasy-irrelevant (after all, the difference between a 5.80 FIP and a 4.70 ERA doesn't do much for anyone's team).

Thanks as always to the amazing fangraphs.com, my source for this data.

2007
Jeremy Bonderman - 5.01 ERA vs. 4.19 FIP
Greg Maddux - 4.14 ERA vs. 3.58 FIP
Joe Blanton - 3.95 ERA vs. 3.50 FIP
Wandy Rodriguez - 4.58 ERA vs. 4.18 FIP

Bonderman dropped his ERA nearly a point in 2008 before injury scrapped his season. Maddux was overcome with age as his strikeouts plummeted in 2008, and Blanton was beset by a scary (likely injury-driven) loss of control, though he proved to be quite a prize in 2009. The real story here was Rodriguez who was a lot better in every key statistic in a shortened 2008, and then got really good in 2009.

2008
Kevin Millwood - 5.07 ERA vs. 4.02 FIP
Javier Vazquez - 4.67 ERA vs. 3.74 FIP
Andy Pettitte - 4.54 ERA vs. 3.71 FIP
Josh Beckett - 4.03 ERA vs. 3.24 FIP
Justin Verlander - 4.84 ERA vs. 4.18 FIP

See any of these names that wouldn't adequately described as a "value" pick if you were lucky enough to take them? Although Millwood has trailed off in late season, likely due to some fatigue, he was a much more solid and rosterable option for three months. Pettitte has been a nice surprise, probably as a waiver pickup, as his BABIP has normalized from last year's .339. I still hate Beckett personally but boy he was good for most of 2009. The real prizes here, though, are Verlander and Vazquez, who are both Top 10 pitchers for 2010 that were clearly undervalued at draft time. You would have wanted to take both of these guys at least two rounds higher than they were taken in your league--trust me.

Now let's see what we can learn from this year...

2009
Ricky Nolasco - 5.34 ERA vs. 3.50 FIP
Carl Pavano - 4.82 ERA vs. 3.96 FIP
Derek Lowe - 4.53 ERA vs. 3.78 FIP
Paul Maholm - 4.51 ERA vs. 3.81 FIP
Jason Hammel - 4.35 ERA vs. 3.66 FIP

Let me be clear about this: there is absolutely nothing that Nolasco has done in 2009 that makes me doubt for an instant that he is one of the 20 best starting pitchers in the majors. His K/9 has actually increased to a career-high 9.09 and his walk rate is still nice and low at 2.17. He is simply the unluckiest pitcher in years. If you doubt it, then good, join my league and take him off your draft board. If you believe in statistics, regression, and skill peripherals, you need to draft Nolasco next year. The value you're likely to get for him could be equivalent to the value you got from Chris Carpenter this year. If you don't believe in those things, you probably stopped reading a long time ago.

The other four could provide some value at the back of the draft next year. Pavano's high BABIP and very low BB/9 bodes well for a good fifth starter; he posted a career high K/BB in 2009 (and it's been a long career). Lowe is what he is, a consistent pitcher with a solid ground-ball IP-eating skillset. Maholm is actually very similar to Lowe; a solid GB pitcher with low HR rates and a really good curveball. Hammel is the real dark horse; now that his walks are under control he just keeps getting better and his curveball is devastating. He could prove to be a very solid part of the young Rockies rotation next year and should definitely not go undrafted (and should not be unowned in your league if you're still in contention).

Not all of these guys are guaranteed game-changers for 2010, but they are definitely pitchers that you don't want to underrate at draft time--the odds that they will be significantly better next year are very good, and with Nolasco, I guarantee it.

Stay tuned, at some point soon we'll take a look at the lucky ones that are deserving of multiple grains of salt...see you then!

~Evan the Censor

2010 Top 20 SP, version 1

2009-09-06T14:59:00.000-07:00

The Starting Line
by Evan "the Censor" Dickens
evan@fantasybaseballsearch.com

With 2009 winding its way to a close, it's time to start planning for 2010. Since I'm as big a fan of jumping the gun as anyone, why wait any longer to release my first draft of 2010 starting pitcher rankings. It's a very crowded field; even with 5 "outside looking in" picks I had to remove some names from this list. Please be aware it's a very rough draft at this point and there will be plenty of offseason considerations that will affect these rankings, but if I'm doing a 2010 draft today, here is the order I'll be taking starters in.

1. Tim Lincecum - Not really a question at this point; even with only 15 or 16 wins he's a top eight pick in 100% of drafts and has had a two-year run reminiscent of what Pedro and Randy were doing ten years ago. He should be the unanimous Cy Young winner.

2. Johan Santana - This is obviously dependent on him being fully healthy, but try not to forget how fantastic he was before the All-Star break this year.

3. Zack Greinke - The major league ERA leader is good enough to make his own luck; imagine how good his stats would be if the Royals weren't the worst team in baseball.

4. Dan Haren - Standard August swoon hasn't been enough to push his ERA past 2.78, or his major league leading WHIP past an incredible 0.95. Career high K/9 in 2009.

5. Felix Hernandez - Still, somehow, only 23 years old, he has arrived as everything we knew he could be and still has talent we haven't seen yet. Prepare for Felix vs. Greinke Cy Young battles for years to come.

6. Chris Carpenter - On one hand, the 6.8 K/9 is not second-round stuff--but a 2.28 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, and one win for every 10.4 innings pitched? Health will remain a bit of a question, though.

7. Roy Halladay - A repeat performance of a 7.5+ K/9 vindicates the top five pick this year, and don't forget that he'll be pitching for a contract next year.

8. Javier Vazquez - A K/BB that defies the mind--he'll finish in the top five in the majors in Ks, with a WHIP under 1.10. The only question is, can he repeat this, because he's got plenty of mediocre years under his belt.

9. Justin Verlander - The sudden surge in strikeouts has been a joy to behold (he'll likely finish second to only Lincecum), but the same consistency issues as Vazquez above will discount him for one more year.

10. CC Sabathia - The drop in strikeouts is surprising, but his WHIP is still solid and the reality is that he is going to be the odds-on favorite to lead the major leagues in wins every single year, and that can't be overlooked.

11. Cliff Lee
12. Brandon Webb
13. Adam Wainwright
14. Josh Johnson
15. Jon Lester
16. Jake Peavy
17. Clayton Kershaw
18. Josh Beckett
19. Ubaldo Jimenez
20. Matt Cain

Outside looking in: Ted Lilly, Chad Billingsley, Yovani Gallardo, Cole Hamels, Jered Weaver

I would love to hear any comments you have, as I'm certain this list will go through plenty of revision as 2009 wraps up and there is time to digest offseason news. Please post your comments on the blog or email me at evan@fantasybaseballsearch.com and stay tuned, as I'll be updating this every month in the offseason. Happy September!

~Evan the Censor

The Starting Line: Clay Buchholz - 8/25/09

2009-08-26T22:11:00.000-07:00

The Starting Line
by Evan "the Censor" Dickens
evan@fantasybaseballsearch.com

Clay Buchholz v CHW, 8/24/2009
ND, 4.2 IP, 7 ER, 6 H, 3 BB, 3 K

On ESPN's excellent Baseball Tonight earlier this week, Buck Showalter was discussing the potential strength of the Red Sox as a playoff team. One of his main points was that "They're going to bring one of the best top three starter groups you're going to see." And I immediately ran to my computer to see who the Red Sox had traded for, because the last I knew it was Josh Beckett, Jon Lester, and then a lot of prayer and fasting until Beckett's next turn. I can only assume he was talking about Tim Wakefield--which still doesn't make that much sense--but I sure hope he wasn't talking about Clay Buchholz, bcause I'll tell you something: I don't trust Buchholz any more in a playoff rotation than I do in a fantasy rotation, which is to say not at all.

Buchholz made his way to the rotation on a fill-in basis for an injured Tim Wakefield, and then as John Smoltz and Brad Penny melted down in tremendous fashion and Justin Masterton was traded for Victor Martinez, there was just no reason for him to leave the rotation. And fantasy owners, with their eye on his beautiful no-hitter from 2007 and his gaudy 2009 minor league stats (8.09 K/9, 2.97 K/BB, 2.36 ERA), probably ran to grab him not wanting to miss out on the next big thing.

The first three starts in the bigs were confirmation, especially the 3.0 GB/FB rate and 11 K's in 15 IP. Not superstar numbers, and too many walks, but Buchholz was looking like a real pitcher, and schmucks like me got him on the roster just in time for the 8/2 start @ Baltimore--where Buchholz blew his load completely, giving up 7 ER in 4 horrible IP. I expelled him to purgatory immediately and watched him throw three straight exceptional quality starts: 4 ER in 20 IP, including at the Yankees and at Toronto. The cracks were there, though: in those 20 IP Buchholz only struck out 10 and walked 9. Those are two stomach-turning ratios. In case you missed those and only saw the 15-day ERA, you probably grabbed him for Monday's start against the White Sox--where he gave up 7 ER in 4.2 IP.

I quit! I give up! Clay Buchholz clearly has no interest in showing any type of consistency at this point and his major league ratios are positively unacceptable. He is throwing 61% of pitches for strikes, just barely above the minimum acceptable. His 5.65 K/9 in 43 major league innings, which should be an adequate sample size, is completely inferior to his 8.6 K/9 of prior major league stints. And his walks, always a sore spot, are well past infected now--a 4.81 BB/9, if sustained, would be among the highest in the major leagues.

A 1.17 K/9 rate means you can't shut guys down, and you can't stop putting guys on the bases. If Buchholz's 15% HR/FB rate continues, a lot of guys are going to take a base on balls and then jog home when the next guy hits the ball out of the park. Pitchers like Buchholz who are oozing immaturity are torture, because they turn their best matchups into gasoline (see: Oliver Perez). I don't trust Buchholz anywhere, for any reason right now, because as long as I don't trust him he'll probably keep winning games. All it will take is one waiver wire pickup in a moment of weakness and here comes the disaster. Pass on Buchholz for 2009 and pray that someone can help him straighten his control out soon.

~Evan the Censor

The Starting Line: Zach Duke - 8/23/09

2009-08-23T15:50:00.000-07:00

The Starting Line
by Evan "the Censor" Dickens
evan@fantasybaseballsearch.com

Zach Duke v CIN, 8/22/2009
W, 7.0 IP, 2 ER, 8 H, 0 BB, 2 K

Raise your hand if you honestly have been paying no attention to Zach Duke this year. It's okay, I don't particularly blame you, but if that's the case you probably aren't aware that he's actually 22nd in the major leagues right now in ERA with a sparkling 3.38--and you're probably similar to the owners in the 38% of Yahoo leagues where Duke is a free agent right now. Is there a reason for this guy to remain unowned?

Duke is not a strikeout pitcher, and that's putting it mildly. His 4.32 K/9 is even more unsettling when you see what a substantial increase it is from the previous two seasons. Duke is the definition of a contact pitcher, with some of the highest contact% and swing% rates in the majors, and of course when you rely on contact like that you need your offspeed stuff to be particularly sharp--and that's where Duke has seen his biggest improvements. His curveball and his changeup combined now make up 36.7% of his pitches, way up from 30.1% and 30.7% in 2008 and 2007, and the measurement of their effectiveness is significantly higher. Batters are falling for these pitches and making bad contact and Duke is seeing that pay dividends. Meanwhile his 2.03 BB/9 rate is at a career low and he's throwing an above-average 65% of pitches for strikes.

Is there reason to be afraid? Absolutely; there's definitely some room for regression with a .282 BABIP and a 77% strand rate. But there was plenty of room for positive regression after the last two seasons, where Duke's average BABIP was an unfortunate .343. It's a bit scary to see Duke's GB/FB rate falling from 1.73 in 2007 down to a career low 1.34 this year, but he's been able to keep the ball in the park. The Pirates have been surprisingly helpful too, giving him a very strong 5.36 RS/9 (as demonstrated in Saturday's game).

I doubt I'll be targeting Duke in a draft next year--after all, the Pirates pitchers take musical chairs as the staff ace every year and if you've taken Perez in 2005, Duke in 2006, Snell in 2007, Gorzelanny in 2008, or Maholm in 2009, you remember the pain. But the true Zach Duke is a serviceable pitcher with very low strikeouts who will provide positive support to your WHIP and ERA in good matchups. As long as his offspeed pitches keep working, that's worth more than 62% ownership.

Remember that I'm always happy to analyze specific starting pitchers when requested--just email me at evan@fantasybaseballsearch.com. Enjoy the end of summer!

~Evan

The Starting Line: Jarrod Washburn - 8/21/09

2009-08-22T09:16:00.000-07:00

The Starting Line
by Evan "the Censor" Dickens
evan@fantasybaseballsearch.com

Jarrod Washburn v SEA, 8/20/2009
ND, 6.0 IP, 6 ER, 5 H (4 HR), 1 BB, 4 K

I've been greatly amused by all the hand-wringing that has taken place after Washburn was traded from Seattle to Detroit and subsequently has had three of his four starts turn into major disasters (16 ER in 19.1 IP). What happened to the front line starter, the sub-3 ERA, the Cy Young contender that Detroit was able to steal away without even giving up a Top 10 prospect?

What happened is that Seattle knew they had lightning in a bottle and had to dump it before the rocket came back to earth (sorry for the ugly mixing of metaphors). Hopefully some fantasy owners were able to do the same, because all the evidence was there that this was still Jarrod Washburn. The same Jarrod Washburn who averaged 5.12 K/9 over his last three full seasons; the same Jarrod Washburn who pitched with a 0.88 GB/FB rate over those three seasons; the same Washburn with kind of a mediocre 88-mph fastball that he relies on pretty heavily.

Does that sound like an appealing mix? Low GB/FB rate, very limited strikeouts, not a very heavy fastball. Sounds like a recipe for a lot of runs, and guess what: it should be, if not for the glorious and elusive BABIP. Washburn still holds the lowest BABIP in the majors with an amazing .243--and you know by now if you're a reader that there is all kinds of luck in there, and all kinds of room for regression. There have been no improvements in Washburn's key skill stats, other than a slightly reduced walk rate. His K/9 is still a middling 5.23; his GB/FB rate is still 0.88; he still throws an unimpressive 62% of pitches for strikes. This is not a Jason Marquis-type situation, where there is demonstative improvement in a key statistic. It's still Jarrod Washburn, folks, but a version of Washburn that's been fortunate to see so few balls fall in. What's happened with the Tigers so far may be the beginning of the wheels coming off of that.

Sorry folks, but this is regression. Hopefully you had Washburn on your team long enough to make some positive strides, but would you have wanted him on your fantasy team at this time last year? Then why would your decision be any different now?

"It was good while it lasted." - Sawyer Brown

The Starting Line: Aaron Harang - 8/15/09

2009-08-15T17:03:00.000-07:00

The Starting Line
by Evan "the Censor" Dickens
evan@fantasybaseballsearch.com

Aaron Harang v WAS, 8/14/2009
L, 7.0 IP, 2 ER, 6 H, 3 BB, 6 K

The question was asked in frustration last year as the dust settled on Aaron Harang's horrific season: how could a pitcher who had such a solid recent track record put together such a pitiful 6-17 record over the course of the season? Now, 75% of the way through the following season, the same hair-pulling agony is taking place: how does someone post a 6-14 record before the second half of August has even arrived? Can a pitcher like Harang really lose 35 games in two years? How does any major league pitcher lose that much?

The answer is not found in deviation's in Harang's skill set over the last three years, since he was quite the stud in 2007. His K/9 has fluctuated in a healthy range of 7.5-8.5, consistent with his career average; walks, though hitting a career low in 2007, are still safely below 2.5. Despite deviations, no complaints about a 3.37 K/BB rate that Harang is putting up in 2009, just outside the top 15 among ERA-qualifying starters. No real quarrels either with his 0.87 GB/FB rate; it's not great but not far away from the 0.96 and 0.97 he put up in his great '06 and '07 seasons. HR/FB rate is up, but not appreciably; Harang has really never made avoiding the long ball part of his game.

What Harang does is wear down lineups and go deep in games. He finished #1 and #4 in total batters faced in 2006 and 2007 and is on pace to again finish in the top ten this year. I can't stress how important that level of stamina is--and I think the Phillies' bizarrely miscalculated signing of Pedro Martinez will demonstrate that. Harang is subject to bad innings sometimes, but he is allowed to stay in and clean up some of that damage. It's the difference between babied pitchers who give up 6 ER in 2.2 IP, and guys like Harang who give up the same 6 ER but get to spread it out over 7 IP anyway. The effect on your ERA over a season is more helpful than you realize.

As long as Harang's K/BB is intact and he's able to throw such an efficient 3.8 pitches per batter faced, I want him on my team--so why are these losses coming? It's a combination of two pretty obvious stats: horrid hit rate and ghastly run support. The latter is probably the more excruciating, especially if you're an underachieving Reds hitter, and it continues a trend. In 2008 Harang's 3.22 RS/9 was third-worst in the majors; teammate Johnny Cueto was tenth-worst at 4.19 (as a point of reference, the major league median was 4.95). Now 2009 is here...meet the new Reds, same as the old Reds; Harang yet again has the third-worst RS/9 in the majors at 3.30. Of the ten pitchers with the worst run support in baseball this year, only Shields has a BABIP above .300 (.308). Harang's BABIP after Friday's start is now a torturous .342, tied with Ricky Nolasco and second only to Jason Hammel among ERA qualifiers.

The BABIP is definitely due for some regression so Harang's 1.47 WHIP is on its way down, I'm pretty comfortable with that. But it's hard to assume that at some point, the Reds offense is simply going to start producing at least the level they provide Arroyo (4.57 RS/9). Maybe if they did, Harang wouldn't have had to take four losses in quality starts this year, but assuming that will change is dangerous. I am not about to bench him against decent matchups, but if he ends up in tough duels with good starters, his offense is prone to fold like one big red lawn chair. If that keeps happening, the ratios will improve and strikeouts will still be good, but those elusive wins will have to be found in other places.

I'm always happy to cover specific pitchers based on requests--please e-mail any requests you have to evan@fantasybaseballsearch.com. Have a great weekend!

~Evan the Censor

The Starting Line: Jonathan Sanchez - 8/11/09

2009-08-11T23:05:00.000-07:00

The Starting Line
by Evan "the Censor" Dickens
evan@fantasybaseballsearch.com

Jonathan Sanchez v LAD, 8/10/2009
L, 5.0 IP, 4 ER, 5 H, 3 BB, 6 K

Looking at the Rotowire story log for Jonathan Sanchez shows two amusingly contrasting stories. First, there's the 6/17 story which describes how Bruce Bochy is about to send Sanchez to the bullpen (and rightfully so) for his total lack of effectiveness of his changeup. The other story is Sanchez throwing a fielder-aborted perfect game (thanks for nothing, Juan Uribe) on 7/10. 11 K's and 0 BB's? Who is this kid? And who is the real Jonathan Sanchez?

The real one, unfortunately, is the one characterized by Sanchez's ugly 5-10 record so far in 2009 and even uglier peripherals. The dominance element of great pitching does not elude Sanchez, who has posted a strong 9.5 K/9 this year and great plate control stats--he is in the top 15 among starters in Z-Swing% (pitches in the zone taken) and O-Contact% (pitches outside of the zone swung and missed). Clearly Sanchez can use his slider to kill batters in multiple ways.

But the control element has missed him entirely and it's not getting any better. Sanchez now has run his BB/9 all the way up to 5.03--the worst in the majors. He is throwing only 61% of his pitches for strikes (showing no improvement from last year) and still throwing a full 4.0 pitches per batter faced, which runs up pitch counts rapidly when you put that many batters on base. Despite the aberration of Sanchez's perfect game, he has now walked 13 batters in his last four starts and is also posting a sub-1 GB/FB ratio.

You can't ask for a line better than what Sanchez posted on 7/10--but you also can't expect him to repeat it anytime soon when batters are getting walked at such an alarming rate (I can't stress this enough--5.03 BB/9) and he can't keep the ball down. For now, Jonathan Sanchez is a case of all kinds of talent that is far from refined enough to trust on your fantasy team, unless you have a safe lead in WHIP and need some serious help in strikeouts. He's owned in 48% of Yahoo leagues so there is clearly demand--I would rather be the one trading him than trading for him as the deadline approaches.

~Evan the Censor

Stat SPaz Week continued: BABIP

2009-08-01T17:37:00.000-07:00

The Starting Line
by Evan "the Censor" Dickens
evan@fantasybaseballsearch.com

Sorry for the unexpected delay there, folks--didn't mean to leave you hanging for a week on what I've always described as my favorite acronym to say as a word; namely, BABIP, also known as Batting Average on Balls In Play, also known as "BAH-Bip", also known as the greatest pure measurement of luck that you can find for starting pitchers. I have done plenty of explaining before on exactly why this proves out to be a luck statistic--and why having the best, i.e. lowest, BABIP is a sure sign of a pitcher about to come back to earth (and vice versa). So no lengthy explanations there, let's just look at the numbers, beginning with some recent historical background:

2004
Best: .247 - Al Leiter, NYM
Worst: .338 - Derek Lowe, BOS

2005
Best: .252 - Barry Zito, OAK
Worst: .343 - Zack Greinke, KC

2006
Best: .237 - Chris Young, SD
Worst: .337 - Rodrigo Lopez, BAL

2007
Best: .252 - Chris Young, SD
Worst: .350 - Scott Olsen, FLA

2008
Best: .245 - Dave Bush, MIL
Worst: .366 - Kevin Millwood, TEX

Surprised Kevin Millwood has had a major rebound this year? Surprised that Zack Greinke and Derek Lowe have been much better recently than they were during the years noted above? Surprised that Barry Zito has been such an enormous bust of a free agent? Such is the nature of BABIP, a completely fluky statistic that one pitcher can lead the league in one year, and finish at the bottom the very next (which Scott Olsen almost did). Research and intelligence has proven that hit rate (the casual name for BABIP) is a big deal in identifying who's going to crash, and who's due for a rise.

So who is it anyway? Here's where we stand for 2009:

Five Best 2009 BABIP through 7/31/2009:
1. .249 - Jarrod Washburn, DET
2. .250 - Scott Feldman, TEX
3. .251 - Dan Haren, ARI
4. .254 - J.A. Happ, PHI
5. .257 - Mark Buehrle, CWS

All five of these pitchers are pitching above their hands--even Haren is not as good as his heavenly stats, which everyone should know by now, and I hope that no one has actually bought into Feldman or Happ who are both ready to crash. But Washburn and Buehrle are two pitchers who likely carry significant value in your fantasy league and are equally likely to have showed you all the best parts of their season so far. Investigating sell-high opportunities for them could be be decision that wins you a championship.

Five Worst 2009 BABIP through 7/31/2009:
1. .348 - Ricky Nolasco, FLA
2. .347 - Aaron Harang, CIN
3. .347 - Todd Wellemeyer, STL
4. .341 - Jon Lester, BOS
5. .335 - Carl Pavano, CLE

Nolasco was such an obvious buy-low when he went down to the minors, at the time sporting an unreal BABIP over .450. He is, again, pitching like the pitcher that I knew he was and that's only going to continue, so unfortunately not much buy-low opportunity left there. The real opportunity here may be Harang who has been frustrating owners for more than a year now, and the scariest part of this list: Lester is actually even better than we've seen so far.

Hope you've enjoyed my wild ride through stat-land--nothing I love more! I'll get back to analyzing individual pitchers soon; if you have any requests, as always please email them to evan@fantasybaseballsearch.com. See you soon!

~Evan the Censor

Stat SPaz Week, Day 4: HR/FB

2009-07-23T16:42:00.001-07:00

The Starting Line
by Evan "the Censor" Dickens
evan@fantasybaseballsearch.com

After our initial jaunt through some of my favorite skill-based statistics, it's now time to turn the tables and look at statistics that identify some of the luckier (and unluckier) pitchers in baseball--which is the real information that you want when targeting buy and sell options as trade season hits the critical point over the next week.

The theory behind HR/FB is this--for the most part, with sensible adjustments for homer-friendly ballparks, you can reasonably expect that across the major leagues, fly balls are relatively interchangeable and will tend to leave the park at the same rate. In other words, if a pitcher is going to give up a fly ball, it's not because of any particular skill that more of his fly balls stay in the park than leave. The major league average is right about 10%--for any given pitcher, you can reasonably expect one out of every ten fly balls to land in the stands. Significantly higher or lower percentages indicate some potential regression--and that regression is that much more important for pitchers with higher FB%.

By the way, it's very important to note that this is a luck statistic only for pitchers. Clearly, it's a different story for batters, but pitchers are assumed to face an even distribution of batters over the course of a season.

First, some historical perspective on HR/FB:

2004
Best: 5.6% - Tim Hudson, OAK
Worst: 18.2% - Greg Maddux, CHC

2005
Best: 4.9% - Dontrelle Willis, FLA
Worst: 18.9% - Derek Lowe, LAD

2006
Best: 5.7% - John Lackey, LAA
Worst: 16.9% - Cory Lidle, NYY

2007
Best: 4.1% - Chris Young, SD
Worst: 17.7% - A.J. Burnett, TOR

2008
Best: 5.1% - Cliff Lee, CLE
Worst: 16.1% - Brandon Backe, HOU

Pretty evident that those with unsustainably low HR/FB percentages had them in years that we can look back on and say "Boy, they had a great year that year...what happened afterwards?" Lackey is a notable exception, and Lee looks almost as good...for now. But you'll notice by looking at any given pitcher's five-year history that if they play in a relatively neutral park, HR/FB is subject to wild fluctuations. In my world, we call that Luck!

Now, let's look at the top and bottom five so far this year.

Five Best 2009 HR/FB through 7/22/2009:
1. 2.9% - Zack Greinke, KC
2. 3.3% - Joel Pineiro, STL
3. 4.7% - Clayton Kershaw, LAD
4. 4.8% - Dallas Braden, OAK
5. 4.9% - Tim Wakefield, BOS

Seem like a few pitchers on that list are having unexpectedly good years? Here's part of the reason. Greinke's total absense of HR is downright scary and there's no possible way it can continue for him. He's not exactly a major GB pitcher, either; a 38% FB rate bears out to a guaranteed ERA increase on the horizon. Not saying he's a fraud--he's just not this good! Don't worry too much about Pineiro who has the best GB rate in the majors, but Wakefield is on the other end of the spectrum--his 45% FB rate is a massive danger sign and he has never posted a HR/FB lower than 9% before. When he comes back, brace yourself for the regression (that, seriously, you always knew was coming).

Five Worst 2009 HR/FB through 7/22/2009:
1. 18.0% - Josh Geer, SD
2. 16.8% - Chris Volstad, FLA
3. 16.5% - Braden Looper, MIL
4. 15.9% - Ricky Romero, TOR
5. 15.4% - Trevor Cahill, OAK

Five relatively unappealing pitchers? Partially because their unlucky HR rate has showed you the worst they have to offer. Volstad and Cahill in particular have high enough FB rates, and enough talent, that you might be able to make the case that there is speculative skill underneath their mediocre numbers. Don't go running to pick these guys up--but don't let their 2009 difficulties define them in the future.

Tomorrow, the Censor's favorite acronym to pronounce as a single word! See you then.

~Evan the Censor

Stat SPaz Week, Day 3: O-Swing & Miss%

2009-07-21T22:51:00.000-07:00

The Starting Line
by Evan "the Censor" Dickens
evan@fantasybaseballsearch.com

After reviewing two very standard fantasy baseball stats, I have to admit that this week's stat is something that I have cobbled together from other stats, but I find fascinating and very useful in identifying the truly dominant pitchers.

The O-Swing% measures the percentage of times that a pitcher induces a batter to swing at a pitch that is outside of the strike zone. Conversely, the O-Contact% is the percentage of those swings outside the strike zone that make contact. What I've done is taken the inverse of O-Contact% and applied it to O-Swing% to invent my own stat--the O-Swing & Miss%! This is the measurement of what percent of an SP's pitches outside of the strike zone induce a swing and miss. This, to me, may be the best measurement of strikeout effectiveness (better than K/9 even) because a pitcher is only getting these swings and misses if their stuff and their location are so good that batters are either a) completely fooled, or b) afraid to take the pitch. I can't give historical data on this, but to compensate I'll give you the top and the bottom ten so far this year.

Ten Best 2009 O-Swing & Miss% through 7/20/09:
1. 14.9% - Chad Billingsley
2. 14.7% - Felix Hernandez
3. 14.5% - Javier Vazquez
4. 14.4% - Dan Haren
5. 14.1% - Tim Lincecum
6. 13.9% - Ryan Dempster
7. 13.6% - Jorge de la Rosa
8. 13.1% - Jon Lester
9. 13.0% - Francisco Liriano
8. 12.8% - Roy Halladay

Now there's a list of ten fantasy pitches I want to own--SPs that I know have the skill-set to consistently dominate their competition. If you're still in a league that de la Rosa is not owned in, make sure you remedy that immediately, and if you need any more proof that Lester's strikeout ability is for real, here it is.

Ten Worst 2009 O-Swing & Miss% through 7/20/09:
1. 4.4% - Mike Pelfrey
2. 4.5% - Brad Penny
3. 4.5% - Livan Hernandez
4. 4.9% - J.A. Happ
5. 5.2% - Vicente Padilla
6. 5.6% - John Lannan
7. 5.7% - Randy Wolf
8. 5.7% - Tim Wakefield
9. 5.9% - Jeremy Guthrie
10. 6.1% - Derek Lowe

Almost zero fantasy interest on that list, other than Lowe potentially, and the reason is clear. When you can't get guys to swing and miss at your pitches out of the strike zone, you're either going to walk everybody or have to send lots of pitches up the middle and pitch to contact. Ground-ball pitchers on this list (like Lowe) can deal with this; guys like Happ and Wolf, though, who still put up decent K numbers are major red flags because those strikeouts are all coming from pitches up the middle. These softies don't belong on my roster.

Hopefully you've found these last three days to be worthwhile. The Censor's taking a break tomorrow and then we'll take a look at the season so far for some of the major "luck stats": BABIP, HR/FB, and LOB%. Hooray for stats! Send me an email if you have any questions or feel free to leave a comment below.

~Evan the Censor