The Starting Line

2010 Top 20 SP, version 2

2009-11-21T16:15:00.000-08:00

The Starting Line
by Evan "the Censor" Dickens
evan@fantasybaseballsearch.com

Now that 2009 is officially behind us (and if you think I'm going to use this space to congratulate a team for buying a World Series championship, you're insane) and the Cy Young awards have been handed out (thankfully to the two who were clearly the most deserving--good job, voters, for not getting caught up in wins), what better time to update my ranking of starting pitchers for 2010. Not a whole lot of movement here, though I've had the chance to consider the final month of the season and digest some of the 2010 rankings released by other sites. As of today, here is my draft order for 2010.

1. Tim Lincecum (no change) - No doubt at all; the only real question is how early he goes in the first round. I am willing to take him seventh (after Pujols, Hanley, A-Rod, Braun, Utley, and Howard). The weed bust is a non-issue.

2. Zach Greinke (+1) - Probably can get him late in the second round. Don't forget that he had 17 fewer walks than Lincecum in 4 more IP.

3. Felix Hernandez (+3) - You know everything about his dominance and incredible fastball movement--but did you know he was 1.1 IP behind Verlander for the major league lead?

4. CC Sabathia (+6) - Had to let my Yankee hatred cool after he became an absolute guarantee in the last six weeks of the season. Other than a mulligan for the last day of the season in Tampa, his previous 10 starts: 8-0, 13 ER in 71 IP. Sick.

5. Johan Santana (-3) - I still think there could be quite a bit of value here, but clearly there won't be a reason to reach for him unless there are absolutely zero injury concerns.

6. Roy Halladay (+1) - Can't understate the value of pitching for a contract (and yet again almost leading the majors in IP while posting a 7.5+ K/9), but subject to change based on an offseason trade.

7. Cliff Lee (+4) - No hyperbole: Game 1 of the World Series was one of the most awe-inspiring pitching performances I've seen in the last 7 years. He is a true ace.

8. Chris Carpenter (-2) - 17 wins in 192 IP is pretty intense, but I am pretty gun-shy about an injury-prone SP with a sub-7 K/9.

9. Dan Haren (-5) - Gave up 5+ ER six times in August and September--still a K/BB freak though, and could thrive on an improved team.

10. Justin Verlander (-1) - Ended up leading the majors in IP--who saw that coming? And does that make anyone else just a bit nervous about next year?

11. Javier Vazquez
12. Adam Wainwright
13. Jon Lester
14. Josh Johnson
15. Jake Peavy
16. Ubaldo Jimenez
17. Josh Beckett
18. Tommy Hanson
19. Yovani Gallardo
20. Matt Cain

Outside looking in: Jair Jurrjens, Ted Lilly, Brandon Webb, Wandy Rodriguez, Jered Weaver

I probably will be updating this again sometime in January. If you have any comments, I love to hear them: just leave them on the blog or email me at evan@fantasybaseballsearch.com. See you soon!

~Evan the Censor

Stat SPaz 9/20/09: FIP vs. ERA, pt. 1

2009-09-20T20:53:00.000-07:00

The Starting Line
by Evan "the Censor" Dickens
evan@fantasybaseballsearch.com

First a note: The absolute most pure analysis of seasonal SP stats would require me to wait until the postseason--but I'm nothing if not anxious. So let's start dissecting 2009!

ERA is a standard fantasy statistic, and for good reason--it is theoretically the correct measurement of any pitcher's ability to limit runs that don't result from fielding errors. Of course, there are plenty of holes, such as the fact that inadequate (but not erroneous) fielding can play a big part in a pitcher's ERA suffering, as well as the fact that bad relievers can make a mess of a starter's ERA by welcoming home inherited runners.

As a result, some saber-heads have developed a metric called Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP) which discards all statistics that a pitcher does not have much control over. I won't break down the entire detail of the equation--you know at this point whether you give any credence to this stat spaz silliness, so you're either on board or you're not--but think of it as a pure distillation of a pitcher's skill peripherals, and a discarding of those pesky luck stats. Ultimately FIP serves as an ERA predictor, before the effects of luck.

Many pitchers have demonstrated the accuracy of FIP. Cliff Lee's 3.00 ERA corresponds tidily with his 3.02 FIP. James Shields' disappointing 4.09 ERA was sadly predicted by his 4.06 FIP. Tim Lincecum's exquisite 2.30 ERA is predicted, and actually surpassed, by his 2.22 FIP (which is why he's so far and away the #1 pitcher next year).

Not all pitchers have such correlation, and that's where you can get some useful information about who to target--and who to avoid--next year. In this, the first of a two-part series, I will look at the unlucky pitchers: the ones with an ERA significantly higher than their FIP. But just in case you don't think there's any use in even looking at this, let's see what you would have known if you looked at pitchers with a high (ERA-FIP) in the last two years. For the record, I'm discarding starters who are fantasy-irrelevant (after all, the difference between a 5.80 FIP and a 4.70 ERA doesn't do much for anyone's team).

Thanks as always to the amazing fangraphs.com, my source for this data.

2007
Jeremy Bonderman - 5.01 ERA vs. 4.19 FIP
Greg Maddux - 4.14 ERA vs. 3.58 FIP
Joe Blanton - 3.95 ERA vs. 3.50 FIP
Wandy Rodriguez - 4.58 ERA vs. 4.18 FIP

Bonderman dropped his ERA nearly a point in 2008 before injury scrapped his season. Maddux was overcome with age as his strikeouts plummeted in 2008, and Blanton was beset by a scary (likely injury-driven) loss of control, though he proved to be quite a prize in 2009. The real story here was Rodriguez who was a lot better in every key statistic in a shortened 2008, and then got really good in 2009.

2008
Kevin Millwood - 5.07 ERA vs. 4.02 FIP
Javier Vazquez - 4.67 ERA vs. 3.74 FIP
Andy Pettitte - 4.54 ERA vs. 3.71 FIP
Josh Beckett - 4.03 ERA vs. 3.24 FIP
Justin Verlander - 4.84 ERA vs. 4.18 FIP

See any of these names that wouldn't adequately described as a "value" pick if you were lucky enough to take them? Although Millwood has trailed off in late season, likely due to some fatigue, he was a much more solid and rosterable option for three months. Pettitte has been a nice surprise, probably as a waiver pickup, as his BABIP has normalized from last year's .339. I still hate Beckett personally but boy he was good for most of 2009. The real prizes here, though, are Verlander and Vazquez, who are both Top 10 pitchers for 2010 that were clearly undervalued at draft time. You would have wanted to take both of these guys at least two rounds higher than they were taken in your league--trust me.

Now let's see what we can learn from this year...

2009
Ricky Nolasco - 5.34 ERA vs. 3.50 FIP
Carl Pavano - 4.82 ERA vs. 3.96 FIP
Derek Lowe - 4.53 ERA vs. 3.78 FIP
Paul Maholm - 4.51 ERA vs. 3.81 FIP
Jason Hammel - 4.35 ERA vs. 3.66 FIP

Let me be clear about this: there is absolutely nothing that Nolasco has done in 2009 that makes me doubt for an instant that he is one of the 20 best starting pitchers in the majors. His K/9 has actually increased to a career-high 9.09 and his walk rate is still nice and low at 2.17. He is simply the unluckiest pitcher in years. If you doubt it, then good, join my league and take him off your draft board. If you believe in statistics, regression, and skill peripherals, you need to draft Nolasco next year. The value you're likely to get for him could be equivalent to the value you got from Chris Carpenter this year. If you don't believe in those things, you probably stopped reading a long time ago.

The other four could provide some value at the back of the draft next year. Pavano's high BABIP and very low BB/9 bodes well for a good fifth starter; he posted a career high K/BB in 2009 (and it's been a long career). Lowe is what he is, a consistent pitcher with a solid ground-ball IP-eating skillset. Maholm is actually very similar to Lowe; a solid GB pitcher with low HR rates and a really good curveball. Hammel is the real dark horse; now that his walks are under control he just keeps getting better and his curveball is devastating. He could prove to be a very solid part of the young Rockies rotation next year and should definitely not go undrafted (and should not be unowned in your league if you're still in contention).

Not all of these guys are guaranteed game-changers for 2010, but they are definitely pitchers that you don't want to underrate at draft time--the odds that they will be significantly better next year are very good, and with Nolasco, I guarantee it.

Stay tuned, at some point soon we'll take a look at the lucky ones that are deserving of multiple grains of salt...see you then!

~Evan the Censor

2010 Top 20 SP, version 1

2009-09-06T14:59:00.000-07:00

The Starting Line
by Evan "the Censor" Dickens
evan@fantasybaseballsearch.com

With 2009 winding its way to a close, it's time to start planning for 2010. Since I'm as big a fan of jumping the gun as anyone, why wait any longer to release my first draft of 2010 starting pitcher rankings. It's a very crowded field; even with 5 "outside looking in" picks I had to remove some names from this list. Please be aware it's a very rough draft at this point and there will be plenty of offseason considerations that will affect these rankings, but if I'm doing a 2010 draft today, here is the order I'll be taking starters in.

1. Tim Lincecum - Not really a question at this point; even with only 15 or 16 wins he's a top eight pick in 100% of drafts and has had a two-year run reminiscent of what Pedro and Randy were doing ten years ago. He should be the unanimous Cy Young winner.

2. Johan Santana - This is obviously dependent on him being fully healthy, but try not to forget how fantastic he was before the All-Star break this year.

3. Zack Greinke - The major league ERA leader is good enough to make his own luck; imagine how good his stats would be if the Royals weren't the worst team in baseball.

4. Dan Haren - Standard August swoon hasn't been enough to push his ERA past 2.78, or his major league leading WHIP past an incredible 0.95. Career high K/9 in 2009.

5. Felix Hernandez - Still, somehow, only 23 years old, he has arrived as everything we knew he could be and still has talent we haven't seen yet. Prepare for Felix vs. Greinke Cy Young battles for years to come.

6. Chris Carpenter - On one hand, the 6.8 K/9 is not second-round stuff--but a 2.28 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, and one win for every 10.4 innings pitched? Health will remain a bit of a question, though.

7. Roy Halladay - A repeat performance of a 7.5+ K/9 vindicates the top five pick this year, and don't forget that he'll be pitching for a contract next year.

8. Javier Vazquez - A K/BB that defies the mind--he'll finish in the top five in the majors in Ks, with a WHIP under 1.10. The only question is, can he repeat this, because he's got plenty of mediocre years under his belt.

9. Justin Verlander - The sudden surge in strikeouts has been a joy to behold (he'll likely finish second to only Lincecum), but the same consistency issues as Vazquez above will discount him for one more year.

10. CC Sabathia - The drop in strikeouts is surprising, but his WHIP is still solid and the reality is that he is going to be the odds-on favorite to lead the major leagues in wins every single year, and that can't be overlooked.

11. Cliff Lee
12. Brandon Webb
13. Adam Wainwright
14. Josh Johnson
15. Jon Lester
16. Jake Peavy
17. Clayton Kershaw
18. Josh Beckett
19. Ubaldo Jimenez
20. Matt Cain

Outside looking in: Ted Lilly, Chad Billingsley, Yovani Gallardo, Cole Hamels, Jered Weaver

I would love to hear any comments you have, as I'm certain this list will go through plenty of revision as 2009 wraps up and there is time to digest offseason news. Please post your comments on the blog or email me at evan@fantasybaseballsearch.com and stay tuned, as I'll be updating this every month in the offseason. Happy September!

~Evan the Censor

The Starting Line: Clay Buchholz - 8/25/09

2009-08-26T22:11:00.000-07:00

The Starting Line
by Evan "the Censor" Dickens
evan@fantasybaseballsearch.com

Clay Buchholz v CHW, 8/24/2009
ND, 4.2 IP, 7 ER, 6 H, 3 BB, 3 K

On ESPN's excellent Baseball Tonight earlier this week, Buck Showalter was discussing the potential strength of the Red Sox as a playoff team. One of his main points was that "They're going to bring one of the best top three starter groups you're going to see." And I immediately ran to my computer to see who the Red Sox had traded for, because the last I knew it was Josh Beckett, Jon Lester, and then a lot of prayer and fasting until Beckett's next turn. I can only assume he was talking about Tim Wakefield--which still doesn't make that much sense--but I sure hope he wasn't talking about Clay Buchholz, bcause I'll tell you something: I don't trust Buchholz any more in a playoff rotation than I do in a fantasy rotation, which is to say not at all.

Buchholz made his way to the rotation on a fill-in basis for an injured Tim Wakefield, and then as John Smoltz and Brad Penny melted down in tremendous fashion and Justin Masterton was traded for Victor Martinez, there was just no reason for him to leave the rotation. And fantasy owners, with their eye on his beautiful no-hitter from 2007 and his gaudy 2009 minor league stats (8.09 K/9, 2.97 K/BB, 2.36 ERA), probably ran to grab him not wanting to miss out on the next big thing.

The first three starts in the bigs were confirmation, especially the 3.0 GB/FB rate and 11 K's in 15 IP. Not superstar numbers, and too many walks, but Buchholz was looking like a real pitcher, and schmucks like me got him on the roster just in time for the 8/2 start @ Baltimore--where Buchholz blew his load completely, giving up 7 ER in 4 horrible IP. I expelled him to purgatory immediately and watched him throw three straight exceptional quality starts: 4 ER in 20 IP, including at the Yankees and at Toronto. The cracks were there, though: in those 20 IP Buchholz only struck out 10 and walked 9. Those are two stomach-turning ratios. In case you missed those and only saw the 15-day ERA, you probably grabbed him for Monday's start against the White Sox--where he gave up 7 ER in 4.2 IP.

I quit! I give up! Clay Buchholz clearly has no interest in showing any type of consistency at this point and his major league ratios are positively unacceptable. He is throwing 61% of pitches for strikes, just barely above the minimum acceptable. His 5.65 K/9 in 43 major league innings, which should be an adequate sample size, is completely inferior to his 8.6 K/9 of prior major league stints. And his walks, always a sore spot, are well past infected now--a 4.81 BB/9, if sustained, would be among the highest in the major leagues.

A 1.17 K/9 rate means you can't shut guys down, and you can't stop putting guys on the bases. If Buchholz's 15% HR/FB rate continues, a lot of guys are going to take a base on balls and then jog home when the next guy hits the ball out of the park. Pitchers like Buchholz who are oozing immaturity are torture, because they turn their best matchups into gasoline (see: Oliver Perez). I don't trust Buchholz anywhere, for any reason right now, because as long as I don't trust him he'll probably keep winning games. All it will take is one waiver wire pickup in a moment of weakness and here comes the disaster. Pass on Buchholz for 2009 and pray that someone can help him straighten his control out soon.

~Evan the Censor

The Starting Line: Zach Duke - 8/23/09

2009-08-23T15:50:00.000-07:00

The Starting Line
by Evan "the Censor" Dickens
evan@fantasybaseballsearch.com

Zach Duke v CIN, 8/22/2009
W, 7.0 IP, 2 ER, 8 H, 0 BB, 2 K

Raise your hand if you honestly have been paying no attention to Zach Duke this year. It's okay, I don't particularly blame you, but if that's the case you probably aren't aware that he's actually 22nd in the major leagues right now in ERA with a sparkling 3.38--and you're probably similar to the owners in the 38% of Yahoo leagues where Duke is a free agent right now. Is there a reason for this guy to remain unowned?

Duke is not a strikeout pitcher, and that's putting it mildly. His 4.32 K/9 is even more unsettling when you see what a substantial increase it is from the previous two seasons. Duke is the definition of a contact pitcher, with some of the highest contact% and swing% rates in the majors, and of course when you rely on contact like that you need your offspeed stuff to be particularly sharp--and that's where Duke has seen his biggest improvements. His curveball and his changeup combined now make up 36.7% of his pitches, way up from 30.1% and 30.7% in 2008 and 2007, and the measurement of their effectiveness is significantly higher. Batters are falling for these pitches and making bad contact and Duke is seeing that pay dividends. Meanwhile his 2.03 BB/9 rate is at a career low and he's throwing an above-average 65% of pitches for strikes.

Is there reason to be afraid? Absolutely; there's definitely some room for regression with a .282 BABIP and a 77% strand rate. But there was plenty of room for positive regression after the last two seasons, where Duke's average BABIP was an unfortunate .343. It's a bit scary to see Duke's GB/FB rate falling from 1.73 in 2007 down to a career low 1.34 this year, but he's been able to keep the ball in the park. The Pirates have been surprisingly helpful too, giving him a very strong 5.36 RS/9 (as demonstrated in Saturday's game).

I doubt I'll be targeting Duke in a draft next year--after all, the Pirates pitchers take musical chairs as the staff ace every year and if you've taken Perez in 2005, Duke in 2006, Snell in 2007, Gorzelanny in 2008, or Maholm in 2009, you remember the pain. But the true Zach Duke is a serviceable pitcher with very low strikeouts who will provide positive support to your WHIP and ERA in good matchups. As long as his offspeed pitches keep working, that's worth more than 62% ownership.

Remember that I'm always happy to analyze specific starting pitchers when requested--just email me at evan@fantasybaseballsearch.com. Enjoy the end of summer!

~Evan

The Starting Line: Jarrod Washburn - 8/21/09

2009-08-22T09:16:00.000-07:00

The Starting Line
by Evan "the Censor" Dickens
evan@fantasybaseballsearch.com

Jarrod Washburn v SEA, 8/20/2009
ND, 6.0 IP, 6 ER, 5 H (4 HR), 1 BB, 4 K

I've been greatly amused by all the hand-wringing that has taken place after Washburn was traded from Seattle to Detroit and subsequently has had three of his four starts turn into major disasters (16 ER in 19.1 IP). What happened to the front line starter, the sub-3 ERA, the Cy Young contender that Detroit was able to steal away without even giving up a Top 10 prospect?

What happened is that Seattle knew they had lightning in a bottle and had to dump it before the rocket came back to earth (sorry for the ugly mixing of metaphors). Hopefully some fantasy owners were able to do the same, because all the evidence was there that this was still Jarrod Washburn. The same Jarrod Washburn who averaged 5.12 K/9 over his last three full seasons; the same Jarrod Washburn who pitched with a 0.88 GB/FB rate over those three seasons; the same Washburn with kind of a mediocre 88-mph fastball that he relies on pretty heavily.

Does that sound like an appealing mix? Low GB/FB rate, very limited strikeouts, not a very heavy fastball. Sounds like a recipe for a lot of runs, and guess what: it should be, if not for the glorious and elusive BABIP. Washburn still holds the lowest BABIP in the majors with an amazing .243--and you know by now if you're a reader that there is all kinds of luck in there, and all kinds of room for regression. There have been no improvements in Washburn's key skill stats, other than a slightly reduced walk rate. His K/9 is still a middling 5.23; his GB/FB rate is still 0.88; he still throws an unimpressive 62% of pitches for strikes. This is not a Jason Marquis-type situation, where there is demonstative improvement in a key statistic. It's still Jarrod Washburn, folks, but a version of Washburn that's been fortunate to see so few balls fall in. What's happened with the Tigers so far may be the beginning of the wheels coming off of that.

Sorry folks, but this is regression. Hopefully you had Washburn on your team long enough to make some positive strides, but would you have wanted him on your fantasy team at this time last year? Then why would your decision be any different now?

"It was good while it lasted." - Sawyer Brown

The Starting Line: Aaron Harang - 8/15/09

2009-08-15T17:03:00.000-07:00

The Starting Line
by Evan "the Censor" Dickens
evan@fantasybaseballsearch.com

Aaron Harang v WAS, 8/14/2009
L, 7.0 IP, 2 ER, 6 H, 3 BB, 6 K

The question was asked in frustration last year as the dust settled on Aaron Harang's horrific season: how could a pitcher who had such a solid recent track record put together such a pitiful 6-17 record over the course of the season? Now, 75% of the way through the following season, the same hair-pulling agony is taking place: how does someone post a 6-14 record before the second half of August has even arrived? Can a pitcher like Harang really lose 35 games in two years? How does any major league pitcher lose that much?

The answer is not found in deviation's in Harang's skill set over the last three years, since he was quite the stud in 2007. His K/9 has fluctuated in a healthy range of 7.5-8.5, consistent with his career average; walks, though hitting a career low in 2007, are still safely below 2.5. Despite deviations, no complaints about a 3.37 K/BB rate that Harang is putting up in 2009, just outside the top 15 among ERA-qualifying starters. No real quarrels either with his 0.87 GB/FB rate; it's not great but not far away from the 0.96 and 0.97 he put up in his great '06 and '07 seasons. HR/FB rate is up, but not appreciably; Harang has really never made avoiding the long ball part of his game.

What Harang does is wear down lineups and go deep in games. He finished #1 and #4 in total batters faced in 2006 and 2007 and is on pace to again finish in the top ten this year. I can't stress how important that level of stamina is--and I think the Phillies' bizarrely miscalculated signing of Pedro Martinez will demonstrate that. Harang is subject to bad innings sometimes, but he is allowed to stay in and clean up some of that damage. It's the difference between babied pitchers who give up 6 ER in 2.2 IP, and guys like Harang who give up the same 6 ER but get to spread it out over 7 IP anyway. The effect on your ERA over a season is more helpful than you realize.

As long as Harang's K/BB is intact and he's able to throw such an efficient 3.8 pitches per batter faced, I want him on my team--so why are these losses coming? It's a combination of two pretty obvious stats: horrid hit rate and ghastly run support. The latter is probably the more excruciating, especially if you're an underachieving Reds hitter, and it continues a trend. In 2008 Harang's 3.22 RS/9 was third-worst in the majors; teammate Johnny Cueto was tenth-worst at 4.19 (as a point of reference, the major league median was 4.95). Now 2009 is here...meet the new Reds, same as the old Reds; Harang yet again has the third-worst RS/9 in the majors at 3.30. Of the ten pitchers with the worst run support in baseball this year, only Shields has a BABIP above .300 (.308). Harang's BABIP after Friday's start is now a torturous .342, tied with Ricky Nolasco and second only to Jason Hammel among ERA qualifiers.

The BABIP is definitely due for some regression so Harang's 1.47 WHIP is on its way down, I'm pretty comfortable with that. But it's hard to assume that at some point, the Reds offense is simply going to start producing at least the level they provide Arroyo (4.57 RS/9). Maybe if they did, Harang wouldn't have had to take four losses in quality starts this year, but assuming that will change is dangerous. I am not about to bench him against decent matchups, but if he ends up in tough duels with good starters, his offense is prone to fold like one big red lawn chair. If that keeps happening, the ratios will improve and strikeouts will still be good, but those elusive wins will have to be found in other places.

I'm always happy to cover specific pitchers based on requests--please e-mail any requests you have to evan@fantasybaseballsearch.com. Have a great weekend!

~Evan the Censor

The Starting Line: Jonathan Sanchez - 8/11/09

2009-08-11T23:05:00.000-07:00

The Starting Line
by Evan "the Censor" Dickens
evan@fantasybaseballsearch.com

Jonathan Sanchez v LAD, 8/10/2009
L, 5.0 IP, 4 ER, 5 H, 3 BB, 6 K

Looking at the Rotowire story log for Jonathan Sanchez shows two amusingly contrasting stories. First, there's the 6/17 story which describes how Bruce Bochy is about to send Sanchez to the bullpen (and rightfully so) for his total lack of effectiveness of his changeup. The other story is Sanchez throwing a fielder-aborted perfect game (thanks for nothing, Juan Uribe) on 7/10. 11 K's and 0 BB's? Who is this kid? And who is the real Jonathan Sanchez?

The real one, unfortunately, is the one characterized by Sanchez's ugly 5-10 record so far in 2009 and even uglier peripherals. The dominance element of great pitching does not elude Sanchez, who has posted a strong 9.5 K/9 this year and great plate control stats--he is in the top 15 among starters in Z-Swing% (pitches in the zone taken) and O-Contact% (pitches outside of the zone swung and missed). Clearly Sanchez can use his slider to kill batters in multiple ways.

But the control element has missed him entirely and it's not getting any better. Sanchez now has run his BB/9 all the way up to 5.03--the worst in the majors. He is throwing only 61% of his pitches for strikes (showing no improvement from last year) and still throwing a full 4.0 pitches per batter faced, which runs up pitch counts rapidly when you put that many batters on base. Despite the aberration of Sanchez's perfect game, he has now walked 13 batters in his last four starts and is also posting a sub-1 GB/FB ratio.

You can't ask for a line better than what Sanchez posted on 7/10--but you also can't expect him to repeat it anytime soon when batters are getting walked at such an alarming rate (I can't stress this enough--5.03 BB/9) and he can't keep the ball down. For now, Jonathan Sanchez is a case of all kinds of talent that is far from refined enough to trust on your fantasy team, unless you have a safe lead in WHIP and need some serious help in strikeouts. He's owned in 48% of Yahoo leagues so there is clearly demand--I would rather be the one trading him than trading for him as the deadline approaches.

~Evan the Censor

Stat SPaz Week continued: BABIP

2009-08-01T17:37:00.000-07:00

The Starting Line
by Evan "the Censor" Dickens
evan@fantasybaseballsearch.com

Sorry for the unexpected delay there, folks--didn't mean to leave you hanging for a week on what I've always described as my favorite acronym to say as a word; namely, BABIP, also known as Batting Average on Balls In Play, also known as "BAH-Bip", also known as the greatest pure measurement of luck that you can find for starting pitchers. I have done plenty of explaining before on exactly why this proves out to be a luck statistic--and why having the best, i.e. lowest, BABIP is a sure sign of a pitcher about to come back to earth (and vice versa). So no lengthy explanations there, let's just look at the numbers, beginning with some recent historical background:

2004
Best: .247 - Al Leiter, NYM
Worst: .338 - Derek Lowe, BOS

2005
Best: .252 - Barry Zito, OAK
Worst: .343 - Zack Greinke, KC

2006
Best: .237 - Chris Young, SD
Worst: .337 - Rodrigo Lopez, BAL

2007
Best: .252 - Chris Young, SD
Worst: .350 - Scott Olsen, FLA

2008
Best: .245 - Dave Bush, MIL
Worst: .366 - Kevin Millwood, TEX

Surprised Kevin Millwood has had a major rebound this year? Surprised that Zack Greinke and Derek Lowe have been much better recently than they were during the years noted above? Surprised that Barry Zito has been such an enormous bust of a free agent? Such is the nature of BABIP, a completely fluky statistic that one pitcher can lead the league in one year, and finish at the bottom the very next (which Scott Olsen almost did). Research and intelligence has proven that hit rate (the casual name for BABIP) is a big deal in identifying who's going to crash, and who's due for a rise.

So who is it anyway? Here's where we stand for 2009:

Five Best 2009 BABIP through 7/31/2009:
1. .249 - Jarrod Washburn, DET
2. .250 - Scott Feldman, TEX
3. .251 - Dan Haren, ARI
4. .254 - J.A. Happ, PHI
5. .257 - Mark Buehrle, CWS

All five of these pitchers are pitching above their hands--even Haren is not as good as his heavenly stats, which everyone should know by now, and I hope that no one has actually bought into Feldman or Happ who are both ready to crash. But Washburn and Buehrle are two pitchers who likely carry significant value in your fantasy league and are equally likely to have showed you all the best parts of their season so far. Investigating sell-high opportunities for them could be be decision that wins you a championship.

Five Worst 2009 BABIP through 7/31/2009:
1. .348 - Ricky Nolasco, FLA
2. .347 - Aaron Harang, CIN
3. .347 - Todd Wellemeyer, STL
4. .341 - Jon Lester, BOS
5. .335 - Carl Pavano, CLE

Nolasco was such an obvious buy-low when he went down to the minors, at the time sporting an unreal BABIP over .450. He is, again, pitching like the pitcher that I knew he was and that's only going to continue, so unfortunately not much buy-low opportunity left there. The real opportunity here may be Harang who has been frustrating owners for more than a year now, and the scariest part of this list: Lester is actually even better than we've seen so far.

Hope you've enjoyed my wild ride through stat-land--nothing I love more! I'll get back to analyzing individual pitchers soon; if you have any requests, as always please email them to evan@fantasybaseballsearch.com. See you soon!

~Evan the Censor

Stat SPaz Week, Day 4: HR/FB

2009-07-23T16:42:00.001-07:00

The Starting Line
by Evan "the Censor" Dickens
evan@fantasybaseballsearch.com

After our initial jaunt through some of my favorite skill-based statistics, it's now time to turn the tables and look at statistics that identify some of the luckier (and unluckier) pitchers in baseball--which is the real information that you want when targeting buy and sell options as trade season hits the critical point over the next week.

The theory behind HR/FB is this--for the most part, with sensible adjustments for homer-friendly ballparks, you can reasonably expect that across the major leagues, fly balls are relatively interchangeable and will tend to leave the park at the same rate. In other words, if a pitcher is going to give up a fly ball, it's not because of any particular skill that more of his fly balls stay in the park than leave. The major league average is right about 10%--for any given pitcher, you can reasonably expect one out of every ten fly balls to land in the stands. Significantly higher or lower percentages indicate some potential regression--and that regression is that much more important for pitchers with higher FB%.

By the way, it's very important to note that this is a luck statistic only for pitchers. Clearly, it's a different story for batters, but pitchers are assumed to face an even distribution of batters over the course of a season.

First, some historical perspective on HR/FB:

2004
Best: 5.6% - Tim Hudson, OAK
Worst: 18.2% - Greg Maddux, CHC

2005
Best: 4.9% - Dontrelle Willis, FLA
Worst: 18.9% - Derek Lowe, LAD

2006
Best: 5.7% - John Lackey, LAA
Worst: 16.9% - Cory Lidle, NYY

2007
Best: 4.1% - Chris Young, SD
Worst: 17.7% - A.J. Burnett, TOR

2008
Best: 5.1% - Cliff Lee, CLE
Worst: 16.1% - Brandon Backe, HOU

Pretty evident that those with unsustainably low HR/FB percentages had them in years that we can look back on and say "Boy, they had a great year that year...what happened afterwards?" Lackey is a notable exception, and Lee looks almost as good...for now. But you'll notice by looking at any given pitcher's five-year history that if they play in a relatively neutral park, HR/FB is subject to wild fluctuations. In my world, we call that Luck!

Now, let's look at the top and bottom five so far this year.

Five Best 2009 HR/FB through 7/22/2009:
1. 2.9% - Zack Greinke, KC
2. 3.3% - Joel Pineiro, STL
3. 4.7% - Clayton Kershaw, LAD
4. 4.8% - Dallas Braden, OAK
5. 4.9% - Tim Wakefield, BOS

Seem like a few pitchers on that list are having unexpectedly good years? Here's part of the reason. Greinke's total absense of HR is downright scary and there's no possible way it can continue for him. He's not exactly a major GB pitcher, either; a 38% FB rate bears out to a guaranteed ERA increase on the horizon. Not saying he's a fraud--he's just not this good! Don't worry too much about Pineiro who has the best GB rate in the majors, but Wakefield is on the other end of the spectrum--his 45% FB rate is a massive danger sign and he has never posted a HR/FB lower than 9% before. When he comes back, brace yourself for the regression (that, seriously, you always knew was coming).

Five Worst 2009 HR/FB through 7/22/2009:
1. 18.0% - Josh Geer, SD
2. 16.8% - Chris Volstad, FLA
3. 16.5% - Braden Looper, MIL
4. 15.9% - Ricky Romero, TOR
5. 15.4% - Trevor Cahill, OAK

Five relatively unappealing pitchers? Partially because their unlucky HR rate has showed you the worst they have to offer. Volstad and Cahill in particular have high enough FB rates, and enough talent, that you might be able to make the case that there is speculative skill underneath their mediocre numbers. Don't go running to pick these guys up--but don't let their 2009 difficulties define them in the future.

Tomorrow, the Censor's favorite acronym to pronounce as a single word! See you then.

~Evan the Censor

Stat SPaz Week, Day 3: O-Swing & Miss%

2009-07-21T22:51:00.000-07:00

The Starting Line
by Evan "the Censor" Dickens
evan@fantasybaseballsearch.com

After reviewing two very standard fantasy baseball stats, I have to admit that this week's stat is something that I have cobbled together from other stats, but I find fascinating and very useful in identifying the truly dominant pitchers.

The O-Swing% measures the percentage of times that a pitcher induces a batter to swing at a pitch that is outside of the strike zone. Conversely, the O-Contact% is the percentage of those swings outside the strike zone that make contact. What I've done is taken the inverse of O-Contact% and applied it to O-Swing% to invent my own stat--the O-Swing & Miss%! This is the measurement of what percent of an SP's pitches outside of the strike zone induce a swing and miss. This, to me, may be the best measurement of strikeout effectiveness (better than K/9 even) because a pitcher is only getting these swings and misses if their stuff and their location are so good that batters are either a) completely fooled, or b) afraid to take the pitch. I can't give historical data on this, but to compensate I'll give you the top and the bottom ten so far this year.

Ten Best 2009 O-Swing & Miss% through 7/20/09:
1. 14.9% - Chad Billingsley
2. 14.7% - Felix Hernandez
3. 14.5% - Javier Vazquez
4. 14.4% - Dan Haren
5. 14.1% - Tim Lincecum
6. 13.9% - Ryan Dempster
7. 13.6% - Jorge de la Rosa
8. 13.1% - Jon Lester
9. 13.0% - Francisco Liriano
8. 12.8% - Roy Halladay

Now there's a list of ten fantasy pitches I want to own--SPs that I know have the skill-set to consistently dominate their competition. If you're still in a league that de la Rosa is not owned in, make sure you remedy that immediately, and if you need any more proof that Lester's strikeout ability is for real, here it is.

Ten Worst 2009 O-Swing & Miss% through 7/20/09:
1. 4.4% - Mike Pelfrey
2. 4.5% - Brad Penny
3. 4.5% - Livan Hernandez
4. 4.9% - J.A. Happ
5. 5.2% - Vicente Padilla
6. 5.6% - John Lannan
7. 5.7% - Randy Wolf
8. 5.7% - Tim Wakefield
9. 5.9% - Jeremy Guthrie
10. 6.1% - Derek Lowe

Almost zero fantasy interest on that list, other than Lowe potentially, and the reason is clear. When you can't get guys to swing and miss at your pitches out of the strike zone, you're either going to walk everybody or have to send lots of pitches up the middle and pitch to contact. Ground-ball pitchers on this list (like Lowe) can deal with this; guys like Happ and Wolf, though, who still put up decent K numbers are major red flags because those strikeouts are all coming from pitches up the middle. These softies don't belong on my roster.

Hopefully you've found these last three days to be worthwhile. The Censor's taking a break tomorrow and then we'll take a look at the season so far for some of the major "luck stats": BABIP, HR/FB, and LOB%. Hooray for stats! Send me an email if you have any questions or feel free to leave a comment below.

~Evan the Censor

Stat SPaz Week, Day 2: GB/FB

2009-07-20T21:29:00.000-07:00

The Starting Line
by Evan "the Censor" Dickens
evan@fantasybaseballsearch.com

My stat spaz continues today with a look at groundball to flyball rate--a very important, and very controllable, indication of a player's ability to limit damage by keeping balls close to the ground. Admittedly a high GB/FB alone does not a fantasy ace make, nor vice versa, but find me a groundball pitcher with a low walk rate. Here's where the best and worst of GB/FB have been over the recent years:

2004
Best: 3.53 - Brandon Webb, ARI
Worst: 0.57 - Eric Milton, PHI
2005
Best: 4.00 - Brandon Webb, ARI
Worst: 0.65 - John Patterson, WAS
2006
Best: 4.06 - Brandon Webb, ARI
Worst: 0.45 - Chris Young, SD
2007
Best: 3.38 - Derek Lowe, LAD
Worst: 0.53 - Chris Young, SD
2008
Best: 3.15 - Brandon Webb, ARI
Worst: 0.70 - Oliver Perez, NYM

Looking at recent years makes me realize something...how much I've missed watching Brandon Webb pitch this year. Now let's take a look at how the top and bottom five are shaking out this year.

Best 2009 GB/FB through 7/19/2009:
1. 2.70 - Joel Pineiro, STL
2. 2.26 - Aaron Cook, COL
3. 2.19 - Jason Marquis, COL
4. 2.06 - Roy Halladay, TOR
5. 2.03 - Ubaldo Jimenez, COL

Is it irony that three Coors Field pitchers are in the top five in GB rate? No one's going to call Pineiro or Cook aces (or even "rosterable") any time soon, but Marquis in particular hitting a career high in this area is evidence of why he's having such a solid season. If all you knew about Jimenez, a future ace to be sure, was that he's got the fastest average fastball in the majors, you'd probably expect to see all kinds of fly balls. His ability to combine dominant stuff with such a high groundball rate is really incredible--if his location of offspeed pitches improves, he will be the absolute real deal. Rare is the pitcher who can limit flyballs and still get heavy strikeouts.

Worst 2009 GB/FB through 7/19/2009:
1. 0.61 - Ted Lilly, CHC
2. 0.62 - Jered Weaver, LAA
3. 0.66 - Johan Santana, NYM
4. 0.72 - Scott Baker, MIN
5. 0.78 - Justin Verlander, DET

These sure look like five better pitchers than the above group, so don't be mistaken about this stat. These guys are good. But they're also, with maybe the obvious exception in the middle there, flammable in dangerous situations. No more evidence of that is needed than what happened to Lilly in HR-happy Philadelphia on Monday night. Be very careful of Verlander, who has posted a dramatic 7.7% HR/FB (a luck stat I'll be discussing later this week)--with his fly-ball tendencies, regression in HR rate could get ugly fast. All of these guys not named Johan (and Justin, for now) should lead you to at least think about it when starting them in dangerous environments like Yankee Stadium, Coors Field, Minute Maid, etc.

Tomorrow my column swings for the fence--and misses! See you then.

~Evan the Censor

Stat SPaz Week, Day 1: K/BB

2009-07-19T16:32:00.001-07:00

The Starting Line
by Evan "the Censor" Dickens
evan@fantasybaseballsearch.com

The Censor is taking a break from analysis of individual pitchers for a few days (though I'm always happy to take requests for specific pitcher analysis via e-mail) to become a complete, unabashed stat whore. At this point of the season, which we'll refer to roughly as the "midway" point, it's time to see who the top performers, the surprises, and the obvious overachievers are. In doing so, I'm going to look at three of my favorite skill stats, and three of my favorite "luck stats", looking at the top and the bottom five in each category, and we'll see what type of information we can glean.

Today we start with my #1 favorite statistic for analyzing the quality of starting pitching: K/BB, otherwise known as strikeout to walk rate. I want my pitchers to do two things really well: dominate hitters and rack up strikeouts, and control the strike zone, thus keeping their WHIP (and by extension their ERA) down. K/BB measures the ability of a pitcher to dominate the strike zone while still keeping patient hitters off the bases. As some background, I will highlight the best and the worst of the stats I review over the five previous seasons (limited to ERA-qualifying starters). Here is the recent history of K/BB:

2004
Best: 8.25 - Ben Sheets, MIL
Worst: 0.85 - Kirk Reuter, SF
2005
Best: 7.89 - Carlos Silva, MIN
Worst: 1.19 - Horacio Ramirez, ATL
2006
Best: 6.54 - Curt Schilling, BOS
Worst: 1.01 - Steve Trachsel, NYM
2007
Best: 5.65 - CC Sabathia, CLE
Worst: 1.14 - Livan Hernandez, ARI
2008
Best: 5.28 - Roy Halladay, TOR
Worst: 1.06 - Daniel Cabrera, BAL

Interesting to see the top end of the K/BB range declining sharply every year for quite a few years now. That pattern may be changing in 2009. Here are the best and worst K/BB in 2009:

Best 2009 K/BB through 7/18/09:
1. 7.61 - Dan Haren, ARI
2. 6.24 - Roy Halladay, TOR
3. 5.91 - Javier Vazquez, ATL
4. 5.67 - Zack Greinke, KC
5. 4.74 - Cole Hamels, PHI

These are five elite pitchers, and their leadership in this statistic only underscores their fantasy ace status. Haren has a scary-low BABIP (a story for another day) but even if his luck doesn't quite hold up, clearly he has all kinds of skills to back up a large part of his performance. The real story is Vazquez who is posting a career-high K/9 and career-low BB/9--an absolutely phenomenal feat considering he is now in his 12th year in the majors. Every statistical indicator shows he is pitching better than his 2.95 ERA and his absence from the All-Star team was a travesty. If someone thinks they're smart to sell him high, don't be afraid to pay for him, he's an ace. If you have an ignorant owner who will unload Hamels and his 4.72 ERA, he's only going to get better.

Worst 2009 K/BB through 7/18/09:
1. 1.04 - Trevor Cahill, OAK
2. 1.17 - Jeff Suppan, MIL
3. 1.19 - Micah Owings, CIN
4. 1.22 - Jon Garland, ARI
5. 1.30 - John Lannan, WAS

No surprise here--if you need more evidence that this is a fantasy skill stat, take a look at five guys who belong on nobody's fantasy team. No surprises here. Obviously it's time to give up on Owings (and you're a year late) but the only real disappointment here to me is Cahill--a rookie, to be fair, and one who never projected to be a high-K guy, but his total and complete lack of plate dominance is a bit troubling. He seems to almost pitch scared at times, afraid to challenge hitters and trying way too hard to finesse his way out of every situation. There is plenty of talent there, and his name isn't one to forget just yet. The rest of these guys should have been forgotten in fantasy-land long ago.

Back tomorrow with more adventures in the land of the stat spaz!

~Evan the Censor

The Starting Line: Ted Lilly - 7/11/09

2009-07-11T23:35:00.001-07:00

The Starting Line
by Evan "the Censor" Dickens
evan@fantasybaseballsearch.com

Ted Lilly v STL, 7/11/2009
W, 8.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 H, 1 BB, 4 K

Lilly was great again Saturday night, as he has been most of the year without exception--which of course is why he's an All-Star. Lilly now has a sparkling ERA of 3.18 with a stellar 9 wins and a very strong 7.64 K/9. What has really kept Lilly's numbers in ace territory is his incredible improvement in control--his 1.86 BB/9 is a career low and good for 11th best among ERA-qualifying starters. With a significant increase in his percentage of pitches for strikes, his efficiency has increased and he's increased his average start length by a full half-inning.

But even with a fantastic 4.22 K/BB (which you remember is my favorite stat) I still can't get past a glaring number in Lilly's line: the incredibly troubling, career-worst 0.61 GB/FB rate--which is the worst in the entire majors. In other words, no one gives up fly balls at a higher rate than Lilly, which is why he sees 30 HR every year. With his command of the strike zone he can keep most of the homers to solo shots, but his profile has to give you pause when he's going into HR-friendly parks. Don't forget his season-opener when he gave up four HRs in one start in Minute Maid Park in Houston.

Strikeouts and walks are a major part of the equation, and all of Lilly's other strong peripherals were demonstrated by Saturday's start, in which he threw a solid 67% of pitches for strikes and went through batters at a 3.68 pitches/batter clip, which is how he can get through 8 IP and barely cross 100 pitches. He's having a great season and is certainly fantasy relevant--but don't forget that ugly FB%--especially when Lilly trots into parks where more of those FBs are prone to head into the stands.

A reminder: I'm always happy to cover any specific pitcher you'd like me to analyze; if you have any requests, please send them to evan@fantasybaseballsearch.com. Enjoy the All-Star festivities!

~Evan the Censor

The Starting Line: Jason Marquis - 7/6/2009

2009-07-07T23:41:00.001-07:00

The Starting Line
by Evan "the Censor" Dickens
evan@fantasybaseballsearch.com

Jason Marquis v WAS, 7/6/2009
W, 8.0 IP, 0 ER, 7 H, 2 BB, 3 K

No pitcher has the entire fantasy expert world rushing to call "B.S." faster than newly minted All-Star Jason Marquis and his major league-leading 11 wins and lovely 3.61 ERA. When a pitcher who's been so mediocre for so many years rockets into as strong a season as this, there are quite a few immediate tests that a starting pitcher guru like runs the numbers through.

First test is the dominance and control numbers. Marquis has never been a strikeout machine, he doesn't pitch in a manner designed to miss bats, so his unsightly 4.14 K/9--a career low even for him--is still not exactly a warning sign. More important is his walk rate, which has also dropped to a career low of 2.91 BB/9, which is an entirely controllable stat. Marquis is getting through batters at an exceptional efficiency clip, averaging only 3.4 pitches per batter faced. This is who he is--a control pitcher who isn't trying to miss your bat, but just trying to get you to hit it where he wants.

And that reflects itself in the out distribution, which is where Marquis is really shining: his 2009 GB/FB rate of 2.18 is a career high, far above his 1.55 career average. Ground ball pitchers don't reach that level by accident--they reach that level when they improve their control and locate better, which is what Marquis is doing. A ground ball rate of 2.18 is a very positive sign and one that makes us more confident to buy in.

Finally, we glance through the "luck" stats and see if there is anything unsustainable. Marquis has a 2009 BABIP of .275--a bit on the lucky side, but far from remarkable rates like Scott Feldman's .238 and Dan Haren's .247. Some regression is expected but not a discomforting amount. Although I don't put too much stock in strand rate, Marquis actually has been unlucky in that area; his 71.9% LOB is in the bottom third of ERA qualifiers, miles away from Matt Cain's mind-blowing 86.1% LOB. His HR/FB of 8.7% is a bit low, but if it does regress the effect will be minor due to exceptionally low 26.5% FB%. So you can rule out crazy luck as the reason behind this surge.

Marquis is not the pitcher that Cliff Lee was last year. But he's also not an unfair recipient of cheap wins; there is something important to be said for a pitcher who is putting up career-best numbers in walk rate and ground ball rate, and as long as those metrics continue in this direction, Marquis can be relied on for continuing wins and strong ERA for a rapidly improving Rockies team. The Censor will be one of the last experts calling B.S. this time around, and only time will tell if Marquis makes me look as smart as Cliff Lee did in 2008.

~Evan the Censor~

The Starting Line: Jorge de la Rosa - 7/3/09

2009-07-04T15:02:00.000-07:00

The Starting Line
by Evan "the Censor" Dickens
evan@fantasybaseballsearch.com

Jorge de la Rosa v ARI, 7/3/2009
W, 8.0 IP, 0 ER, 4 H, 4 BB, 6 K

There may not be a pitcher with a more agonizingly tantalizing blend of talent and unpredictability (this side of Oliver Perez, at least) than Jorge de la Rosa. When he is dominant, he looks amazing with his fireball fastball and devastating changeup--in fact, only Javier Vazquez has a higher swing-and-miss percentage among all ERA qualifiers this year; a full 26.4% of batter swings whiff right past de la Rosa's pitch.

But when he's bad, he is so bad as to incite fantasy writers to vow that he is forever unusable in mixed leagues and similar raging diatribes. I wrote a few of those myself after de la Rosa's 2.1 IP, 7 ER tee-ball fest against the Rays in June, the only game in an 18-game stretch that the Rockies lost. Now, however, with Friday's start and the two quality wins he picked up in his previous starts, he's back to looking like a real fantasy pitcher again, and his numbers demand that you give him consideration.

I can guarantee that he's the best source of strikeouts you'll find on your league's wire--his 9.37 K/9 is seventh in the majors--and for that reason alone, he may be worth a spec pickup. But there are plenty of statistical reasons to think that you still have an opportunity to pick up a highly-skilled player for cheap: his BABIP of .329 has plenty of room to regress to the downside, which will bring down his 1.44 WHIP considerably (though walks will likely continue to be a problem) and his strand rate of 65.6% is the fourth lowest among ERA qualifiers. There are some luck elements to that stat as well, and if that regresses, we'll see a significant decrease in de la Rosa's ERA--which, at 5.14 currently, probably looks too ugly to pick up.

But looking at the underlying stats, you can know better than that. With an FIP (predictive ERA) of 3.81, his skill set is too good and his ceiling of dominance too high to let him languish on any waiver wire. He can be benched in questionable matchups (don't let Coors scare you though, home runs are not his hangup) but can always be counted on to stack up strikeouts. If only the control could be improved, and some of the luck factors could regress, we'd be looking at de la Rosa as much more of the fantasy stalwart that he teases sometimes, rather than the waiver wire sniper start that all your leaguemates currently are treating him as.

Remember--if you'd like the Censor to cover any specific starting pitcher, I'm happy to do so. Just fire an e-mail off to evan@fantasybaseballsearch.com. Happy holidays!

~Evan the Censor~

The Starting Line: Brian Bannister - 6/20/09

2009-06-21T14:38:00.001-07:00

The Starting Line
by Evan "the Censor" Dickens
evan@fantasybaseballsearch.com

Brian Bannister v STL, 6/20/2009
L, 8.0 IP, 2 ER, 6 H, 0 BB, 4 K

When Bannister has had positive stretches during his short career (August 2007, April 2008), most analysts have written it off as "Ride it while you can, but there's no way Bannister is this good." When he's been bad--as he was during pretty much the rest of his miserable 2008 after a nice April--it's more a matter of "Well, that's Brian Bannister, cut and forget." But don't look now--other than an ugly week in late May, Bannister is starting to look like a competent major league pitcher.

He's never been a strikeout specialist--this year's 5.53 K/9 rate is actually close to a career high. His BB/9 rate of 2.89 is in lockstep with his career average too. Bannister's problem in 2008--and 16 losses and a 5.76 ERA is definitely a problem--was an unacceptable 0.92 GB/FB rate, and a bit of bad luck with HR/FB, all adding up to an ugly 1.43 HR/9 and a lot of big innings that knocked Bannister out of games early to the tune of only 5.7 IP/start (gotta love the Royals sticking with him for 32 starts though).

Bannister's key improvement this year--a believable one that is not necessarily a "luck" trend--is a significantly increased GB/FB rate, currently at a career high of 1.40. That, along with a more normalized HR/FB, means a lot fewer HR and longer games for Bannister. His BABIP of .298 is at a very healthy level where there's not an implicit fear of hit regression.

A healthy ground ball rate is very important for a low-strikeout pitcher who relies on an 89 mph fastball as Bannister does, and if he can keep this type of GB strength up, he will be able to limit damage much more successfully than he has in the past. Watch that GB/FB closely and if it stays well above 1.0, Bannister is a starter you can take a look at against mediocre offenses--but remember he will never be a fireballing Greinke-type, so avoid overreliance, especially against offenses that could really pound him.

Don't forget that you can e-mail me anytime at evan@fantasybaseballsearch.com if there's a specific pitcher of SP stat that you'd like me to write about. Be careful, though--two weeks ago I got a request for Erik Bedard and he hasn't made a start since. The curse of the Censor!

~Evan the Censor

The Starting Line: Chris Carpenter - 6/14/09

2009-06-14T22:26:00.001-07:00

The Starting Line
by Evan "the Censor" Dickens
evan@fantasybaseballsearch.com

Chris Carpenter @ CLE, 6/14/2009
L, 7.0 IP, 3 ER, 2 HR, 5 H, 1 BB, 3 K

Anyone who got to watch Cliff Lee pitch today got to see an absolute treat, and hopefully everyone will now shut up about Lee being the "Estaban Loaiza of 2008" as he has fully proven me right--even I didn't think he'd get his ERA back down to 2.88 this soon. But that's not what I want to talk about, and to be honest I don't even want to talk about Carpenter all that much either.

Carpenter is a great pitcher with incredible fastball location and a mean slider and curveball. He's been fantastic this year; coming into Sunday's game his ERA was a remarkable 1.23 and everyone proclaimed that the 2005 Cy Young winner was back in full form. And while I think he's a great pitcher, there was one statistic in his 2009 portfolio that I could not get past: HR/FB. In 2009, Chris Carpenter had only given up one home run in seven starts--an unbelievable HR/FB rate of 2.9%. That is most definitely not sustainable.

HR/FB is not a perfectly regressing stat like BABIP, especially for pitchers in parks that are very large or very small. But in general, you expect to see 7-10% of fly balls go for home runs. When you have a pitcher who is giving up fly balls, but none of them are leaving the yard, you know that there is trouble coming. Wandy Rodriguez certainly proved to be the poster child for this, giving up four homers in one start after only giving up in his first 11. So who are some other pitchers that you should be worried about their unsustainably low HR/FB?

Let's start with Jair Jurrjens. His GB/FB rate is under one, and he's been able to stay out of trouble with a tasty 4.1% HR/FB. That won't last and will hurt more with his lack of groundballs. Chad Billingsley is another candidate--his 7.5% career HR/FB rate has stayed at 2.6% so far this year which has sure helped his 2.73 ERA, but he's due to give up about ten home runs over the next six weeks. And blasphemy--yes, Zack Greinke is going to have some trouble later this year as well. His career HR/FB rate of 9.1% and career GB/FB rate of 0.95 should translate to about 2o HR in a season--and Greinke sits at 2 HR allowed in 2009.

This is no reason to sell high or give up on any of these three pitchers, or Carpenter for that matter. But understand that their miniscule ERAs are not fully reflective of the pitcher they are, and that quite a few of their pitches are overdue to leave the yard. I want Carpenter on my team, without question, but I also know that there's a full point or more of ERA coming home to roost, and the 2 HR allowed on Sunday are the beginning of that normalcy.

Thanks for reading,

~Evan the Censor

The Starting Line: Rick Porcello - 6/12/09

2009-06-13T21:51:00.001-07:00

The Starting Line
by Evan "the Censor" Dickens
evan@fantasybaseballsearch.com

Rick Porcello @ PIT, 6/12/2009
W, 7.0 IP, 1 ER, 6 H, 1 BB, 2 K

You could have known a lot earlier that Porcello was going to be great--if you read my preseason column identifying the top ten minor league pitchers who were going to have a major league impact (not that I want to prop myself up, of course). I had this to say about Porcello, who was #7 on my list: "His upside projects to the Fausto Carmona of 2007." I said that not really expecting that his upside was going to show up in 2009.

Porcello, who won't even turn 21 until after Christmas this year, has a whopping 125 IP of minor league experience--all in 2008 and all in A. With the shakiness at the back of the Tigers rotation, he was kept on the major roster to start the year and pitched exactly like a 20-year-old pitcher to start the season: 9 ER, 5 HR, and 2 losses in his first three starts (all on the road). As he has found his confidence, though, we've seen what makes Porcello great.

It's not the strikeouts, let's make that clear (thus the Carmona reference). Porcello has not struck out more than 5 batters in a game this year and his 5.03 K/9 this year is probably right about what you can expect. He gets batters out in other ways, though: as a stellar control and ground ball pitcher. His pitch efficiency of 3.7 pitches per batter faced is fantastic, as evidenced by the fact that he has yet to top 100 pitches in his 12 starts. Part of that is caution, but the kid gloves obviously aren't that strong if Porcello has pitched deep enough to rack up 7 wins.

But the ground ball numbers, for a kid this young, are really incredible. Porcello's GB rate of 56.0% is sixth in the majors among ERA qualifiers, and he's one of only seven pitchers with a GB/FB rate above 2.0. Contrast this to a guy like Max Scherzer and you know what you're getting: fewer strikeouts, to be sure, but deeper games, lower pitch counts, more wins, and consistency as long as his great sinking fastball is in the right spot.

If you want me to make the craziest statement I could imagine, it's this: after all the sports shows talked about how Randy Johnson may be the last 300-game winner, this is the exact type of kid that may be the next to get there. He pitches intelligently, consistently, and does not play with fire--since those first three starts, only 5 HR given up in 50 IP. He's pitching well ahead of his incredibly young age and may win 17 games before he's old enough to legally drink. If Porcello has somehow not been picked up in your league, he should be 100% owned because he's going to be a three-category star with a great career in front of him.

As a reminder--if there are any specific pitchers you'd like covered in this column, please email me at evan@fantasybaseballsearch.com or leave a blog comment. Peace out!

~Evan the Censor

The Starting Line: Kevin Slowey - 6/7/09

2009-06-07T19:54:00.000-07:00

The Starting Line
by Evan "the Censor" Dickens
evan@fantasybaseballsearch.com

Kevin Slowey @ SEA, 6/7/2009
L, 4.2 IP, 4 ER, 10 H, 2 BB, 2 K

I actually watched the Mariners-Twins game on Sunday afternoon intending to write a blog about Erik Bedard, who has proven himself to be every bit the exceptional value pick that I thought he would be and still has one of the illest curveballs in baseball. But I think the more important SP-related take from this game is a bit of regret on my part--I thought this may be the year that Slowey established himself as a true fantasy ace, but the leaks that were apparent on Sunday make me think I might have been a year too early.

Kevin Slowey is a control pitcher--in fact, he is the epitome of control pitchers. The ML-leading 0.93 BB/9 Slowey posted prior to Sunday's start, if maintained, would be the first sub-1.00 BB/9 since Carlos Silva in 2005. In fact, no one other than Greg Maddux has posted a BB/9 lower than 1.24 since 2005--as a reference, Cliff Lee led the majors last year with a 1.37 BB/9. Slowey isn't necessarily a dominant pitcher--his 6.7 career K/9 is good, not great--and he is definitely not a groundball pitcher; his 0.74 GB/FB is actually seventh-lowest in the majors. What he's able to do is scatter base hits and because he makes almost no location mistakes, he can limit damage and keep a high strand rate--very reminiscent of Tom Glavine in his prime.

The problem today was that Slowey ran into CB Bucknor, a home plate umpire with a strike zone the size of a index card. Bucknor was completely fair, consistently denying Erik Bedard the outside corner, but Bedard can always go back to his dynamite curveball. Slowey doesn't have the same strikeout pitch that can overcome a tight strike zone, and once his pitch counts started running up you could see some anxiety creep in. For Slowey to actually walk two batters in a game is incredible (that brings his total to 9 for the entire season) but the 10 hits is a clear consequence of not being able to use the outside part of the strike zone the way he'd like, and it happened against a really awful Seattle offense that has been floundering mightily.

I think that by the end of the year, Slowey will have 12 or 13 wins, and a WHIP around 1.20 with an ERA close to the 3.99 he put up last year--but just like 2008, he will probably average at least 1.0 H/IP, and until he can ramp up his underused offspeed pitches to really cut batters off the way Bedard does with his curveball, he's going to run into disasters like this now and then. A control pitcher like Slowey comes around rarely, but the translation to real ace is a level that Slowey is clearly not quite ready for.

Thanks for reading--all comments, questions, vulgar flames, and requests for discussion of specific pitchers to evan@fantasybaseballsearch.com. Have a great week!

~Evan the Censor

Three Sell-High Candidates

2009-06-06T08:34:00.000-07:00

The Starting Line
by Evan "the Censor" Dickens
evan@fantasybaseballsearch.com

Now that the season is roughly one-third in the books, we have a healthy enough sample size to determine who is for real, and who is putting up numbers that can only be described as a kind mirage. To that end, here are three pitchers for whom luck has been on their side, and who can be reasonably expected to see a downturn in the very near future.

Kevin Millwood - There's no possible way a sub-3.00 ERA can continue for Millwood, and in fact he's a prime candidate to put up a +4 the rest of the season. Millwood is missing disaster with all kinds of good fortune, but his .262 BABIP is due for an increase and his relatively high walk numbers mean that the WHIP damage could be substantial. Millwood is putting up a career-low K/9 of 5.08--pretty incredible when you consider he's got thirteen years of career behind him--and giving up HR at an ugly 1.27 HR/9 rate, far above his career high. When more hits start falling against him, as they will, his ERA is due for a sharp rise. Sell high.

Josh Outman - Outman has been a great story through his first nine starts for the uber-young Athletics rotation, outpitching all the other highly touted prospects surrounding him. In his first nine starts, he's put up a 3.02 ERA and a strong 7.0 K/9. However, he's also been the beneficiary of quite a bit of luck: only Scott Feldman has a lower BABIP than Outman's incredible .242. He has been putting runners on the bases at a good clip thanks to his ugly 3.7 BB/9 and 59% of pitches thrown for strikes, but has been able to strand 78% of those runners by getting balls to drop in the right place. He can't control that forever, and those walks will come home to roost with a healthy ERA increase sooner than later.

Matt Cain - I know everyone thinks this kid is the next fantasy ace (and has thought that for three years now)--and in fact, if someone in your league thinks that, get them to overpay for him right now. Cain's walks have always been too high, as they are again (3.7 BB/9) but for some reason his strikeout rate has slowed dramatically, from a career 7.7 K/9 all the way down to 6.7 K/9 this season. His flyball rate still exceeds his groundball rate by quite a bit, and though he's been able to keep his HR/FB very low in the past, if that ratio climbs it's bad news. The bottom line is that there is no way any pitcher with a 1.32 WHIP can maintain an ERA under 3.00 for an entire season--Cain will not strand 88% of the runners he puts on base, as he has this year so far. But every league has at least one owner with a Cain mancrush; find that guy and make him pay for these inflated stats.

Coming soon--the Censor takes a look at three guys for whom the best part of 2009 is certainly yet to come. Have a great weekend!

~Evan the Censor

The Starting Line: Clayton Richard - 5/29/09

2009-05-30T16:52:00.001-07:00

The Starting Line
by Evan "the Censor" Dickens
evan@fantasybaseballsearch.com

Clayton Richard @ KC, 5/29/2009
W, 7.0 IP, 2 ER, 6 H, 1 BB, 7 K

I have to be honest with you--in the hunt for young, up-and-coming arms at the beginning of the year, I did not have Clayton Richard on my radar. In fact, I basically implied that the 25-year-old was holding a roster spot for the vastly superior young arm Aaron Poreda. Richard spent a relatively nondescript month as a reliever until Jose Contreras pitched his way into oblivion, and now Richard has his chance to shine as the fifth starter--and so far, he has sure taken that chance, and established himself as someone who needs to be on your radar.

After a transition start at Cleveland that can safely be ignored, Richard now has three good starts under his belt, with great numbers: 20.0 IP, 1.35 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, 8.1 K/9, and an above-average 2.57 K/BB. He looks composed and ready, and you can likely chalk that up to the three full seasons of minor league ball that he pitched--not many young arms have the luxury of chalking up 450 total IP before beginning their first full major league season. The patience the White Sox have had has paid off, apparently.

If Richard is just now coming onto your radar, join the club; he was completely wasted in a relief role. He doesn't exactly have the dynamite fastball or putaway slider that a spot reliever really needs, and in a relief role he didn't have much of a chance to use his offspeed pitches effect--now we have a chance to see how good his changeup really is.

Richard is definitely a major league starter. Unfortunately, his effectiveness is stopping the world from seeing what Poreda is capable of, but Bartolo Colon is one cheeseburger away from the DL at any given moment. For now, Richard is someone who should at least be on your radar, and is probably already a good option for a sniper start. Expect the K/9 rate to settle somewhere around his career average of 6.06, but his walk rate should stay low and he will be able to limit the home run effectively. Despite the White Sox's near-attempt to waste him in relief, Clayton Richard has arrived and given time, will almost certainly be a boost to someone's fantasy team later in 2009.

Remember--if there's a pitcher you'd like covered in the Starting Line, feel free to leave a blog comment or send me an email.

~Evan the Censor

The Starting Line: Clayton Kershaw - 5/28/09

2009-05-29T22:17:00.000-07:00

The Starting Line
by Evan "the Censor" Dickens
evan@fantasybaseballsearch.com

Clayton Kershaw @ COL, 5/27/2009
W, 6.0 IP, 3 ER, 4 H, 4 BB, 4 K

I have made the argument many times that of all the hot young pitchers in the majors right now, I'm not sure there's anyone with the upside of Dodgers lefty Clayton Kershaw, only two months removed from legal drinking age. That's not easy to see, though, if you focus on aggregate season numbers. Kershaw's boasting a pretty pedestrian 4.34 ERA, a 3-3 record in 10 starts, and a mediocre 1.29 WHIP. His K/9 is a strong 8.84, but it comes with an ugly 5.14 BB/9. His efficiency is terrible--the Kazmir-esque 4.3 pitches per batter faced is the main reason he hasn't seen the eighth inning of a game yet. Doesn't sound like a pitcher you'd want much to do with this year, right?

Kershaw is the poster child for why I believe in short-term moving averages for my analysis. The kid posted an incredible start against the Giants, striking out 13 in seven innings with only one walk--then followed that up with two road bombs at Colorado and Houston, posting a massive 15.00 ERA and 2.44 WHIP. And everyone who was so excited about his potential was ready to run for the hills.

Kershaw completed his May on Wednesday with a return to the scene of the last crime and looked comparatively better--not great, but a backdoor quality start. It capped off a run of six May starts, though, that paint quite a different picture than the aggregate season numbers. In May, Kershaw posted a 2.57 ERA, with a particularly solid 1.06 home ERA. This is the sign of a pitcher that is settling down and finding some consistency.

I love the mix of pitches that Kershaw throws--his wicked heat is complemented by a deadly curveball, and a changeup that takes a full 11 mph off his fastball (which I'd like to see him throw more). Despite his control issues--as always, a common problem with rookie pitchers--Kershaw keeps the ball in the ballpark and has not truly blown up for more than a month. His hit rate (BABIP) is a bit low and due for some upward regression, but the WHIP damage there will be offset if he can just gain some control, and very few young pitches don't post significant control improvement after they cross 150-200 IP in the majors.

Despite how unsexy Kershaw may be to many after his back-to-back blowups and lack of a real dominant performance since then, the consistency is all you need to see from a pitcher with his talent at this point in his career. Keeper league owners should know that this is the Johan Santana of the next generation, the SP you'll want to have on your roster for the entire 2010's. Even non-keeper owners should look out for owners who have lost their interest in Kershaw and see if you can snatch him up in a trade--the second half of the season could pay major dividends.

I know everyone's in love with Cueto, Scherzer, and various others--but when Clayton Kershaw is being taken in the first round of drafts in 2014, just remember who tipped you off first.

~Evan the Censor

The Starting Line: Johnny Cueto - 5/24/09

2009-05-25T09:09:00.000-07:00

The Starting Line
by Evan "the Censor" Dickens
evan@fantasybaseballsearch.com

Over the next four days, the Censor's going to take a look at some of the young guns who had everyone abuzz with their high-strikeout, high-ceiling potential at draft time and see how that potential has translated to success so far in 2009.

Johnny Cueto v CLE, 5/24/2009
ND, 7.0 IP, 2 ER, 6 H, 3 BB, 7 K

Cueto's major league debut will be forever burned in the minds of fantasy gurus--for a rookie pitcher to strike out 10 and walk zero in their first start is something incredible. Then to follow that up with another 8 K, 0 BB performance solidified Cueto as a fantasy legend. Until, of course, reality set in and Cueto's 2008 season line settled at 9-14, 4.81 ERA, 1.41 WHIP, along with a scary 1.50 HR/9, fifth-worst in the majors. Not exactly ideal fantasy numbers, but the 8.17 K/9 left some hope and Cueto was taken as a late-round flier in all mixed leagues--and is paying off huge dividends so far in 2009.

Through nine starts, Cueto is now 4-2, with a scintillating 2.37 ERA and 1.04 WHIP. That includes five starts of at least 7.0 IP, and two or fewer ER. He is certainly showing improvement, but a look at his peripherals indicates there is still some room for growth. Cueto's pitch counts are usually topping 100 earlier in the game than the Reds and their shaky bullpen would prefer, and his 3.94 pitches per batter faced (unchanged from 2008) is not an ideal level. Similarly, Cueto is still only throwing 63% of pitches for strikes, a level at the low range of acceptable. He is certainly pitching to contact more, as evidenced by a K/9 rate that has dropped to 6.97 and a BB/9 rate that has also dropped from 3.52 to a solid 2.37.

The biggest improvement is the home run rate--cut in half to 0.74 HR/9, yet you have to wonder if that's sustainable since Cueto's HR/FB is only 7%, which is well below the major league average. Similarly, it's tough to imagine his opponent BA of .216 being even close to sustainable when only 25% of batted balls have gone for hits. Regression is due.

A pitcher like Johnny Cueto, who throws fastball or slider for 95% of pitches, is going to be challenged to have long-term success as a starter. He's looked great so far this year, but has also had his share of luck, and to anyone who hurriedly snatched him up after last year's hot start you remember what regression feels like. If you've enjoyed Cueto's dynamite contribution to your 2009 stat line, no need to make a panic deal, but it's probably time to sell high and move on to something else because I think we've seen the best part of his season.

Please remember to email me if you would like any specific starter, or any other element of starting pitcher, covered in this blog. Happy Memorial Day!

~Evan the Censor

The Starting Line: Ricky Nolasco - 5/13/09

2009-05-15T00:30:00.000-07:00

The Starting Line
by Evan "the Censor" Dickens
evan@fantasybaseballsearch.com

Ricky Nolasco @ MIL, 5/13/09
L, 3.2 IP, 8 ER, 7 H, 2 BB, 3 K

I was absolutely one of the biggest fans of Ricky Nolasco going into the season--tough not to be with the numbers he put up and the composure with which he established himself as the Marlins ace last season. Now, Nolasco has extended his disastrous 2009 season through eight starts, in which he has never posted a game ERA less than 4.50 and has not pitched more than 6.0 IP once. Like many Nolasco owners, I'm sure, I got a nice offer trying to buy very low on Nolasco. At least it's something for a SP with a 7+ ERA, right? I'm not selling, and here's why I don't think you should either.

Nolasco was great for two reasons last season: his strikeout ability (7.9 K/9) combined with his pinpoint control (an incredible 1.78 BB/9)--good for seventh in the majors with a 4.43 K/BB, the Censor's favorite stat, and the third-lowest WHIP in the majors. Are the skills all gone? Not a chance: Nolasco is still striking out 7.6 batters per 9, and though walks have increased to 2.59 BB/9, that is still a quality starter number and Nolasco still throws two-thirds of pitches for strikes. No real change in ground ball rate or other unnerving peripherals.

The difference? Nolasco is on the other end of the Joe Saunders luck spectrum. Nolasco's BABIP is a ridiculous .387--which means that fully a fourth of the hits that batters are getting off him are due for regression. Even though I don't put much stock into strand rate, Nolasco's strand rate of 52.7% is positively eye-popping--the worst in the majors, and by a lot; second-worst is Daniel Cabrera at 56.6%. Hits are falling badly for Nolasco, and they're falling with men on base. His FIP, which as I've said is a useful ERA predictor, is 4.34--lower than any of his eight individual game ERAs. It sounds crazy after his start Wednesday, but seriously, this is one of the unluckiest stretches

All of this indicates that the best is yet to come for Nolasco--not only that, but it indicates he could still be the pitcher he was last year for a significant length of time. If that's the case, then you want him on your team, and you're highly advised to do what my fellow owner did and make a lowball trade offer while the bad taste is still present. I want Nolasco on my team now as much as I did in March.

~Evan the Censor