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Saturday, July 18, 2009

Fantasy Baseball Tonight 7/18


Jed Lowrie was in the Red Sox lineup for the first time since April 11th, and he made the most of his return. He might have only had one hit, but it was for his first home run of the year. He is an interesting fantasy player because he doesn't hit for a lot of power and he doesn't steal a whole lot of bases. However, Lowrie will hit around .300 and he drives in a good number of runs. Last year when he came to the majors he had 46 RBI in just 81 games. If he is available, I would try to make a place for him on your roster. He has eligibility at a couple different positions and depending on the size of your league should be a nice help to your squad, even if it is just in an insurance role.

Scott Kazmir didn't get the win, but he did allow just one run over six innings, and now has three good starts of his four since coming back from the Disabled List. Even though he walked four guys in six innings, this outing will likely calm down the fear of Kazmir's owners who were sweating after he allowed seven runs in his last start. He isn't an elite pitcher, but he is definitely worthy of being your third pitcher. Kaz should be good more often than not, and you should start him in confidence against any opponent.

For all of you Johan Santana owners who are worried about your pitcher because of either his recent performances or the injury situation in New York, hopefully today rested your mind. Please remember two things. Some of his teams in Minnesota that he pitched on weren't that great. Second, Johan's career second half numbers are disgusting. After the All-Star Break for his career, Santana is 58-17 with a 2.70 ERA and a 1.05 WHIP. He also has 734 strikeouts in only 714 innings. Does that make you feel better?

Same thing with the Nolan Reimold owners. I know that a lot of you were very happy with the rookie when he was called up, but he went in a decent sized slump just before the All-Star Break. Good news is he now has two straight multi-hit games since the break has ended. He will likely be somewhat inconsistent for the rest of the season, but I still think he will have a solid season and hit 17-18 home runs.

Alex Rodriguez continues to mash the baseball and is again an elite fantasy player even without the great batting average or his usual 20 stolen bases. A-Rod bombed out his 18th dinger of the year, and now has 51 RBI, despite missing the first month of the season. I don't care that he is hitting in the .250s and he only has three homers, look for Alex to hit at least 25 taters this season, and if he gets hot, perhaps challenge 40.

Can someone please teach Mike Hampton the correct way to transition the baseball from his bare hand to his glove? Hampton looked like he was going to pound the ball into his glove in frustration after allowing a base hit, but there was just one problem. He missed his glove and the ball nearly rolled to the dugout allowing Matt Kemp to score. UGH! Not a good night to be a Houston fan.

Jered Weaver had his sixth straight start that he allowed three earned runs or more, and his amazing start is starting to become more of a distant memory than a part of the norm. He is still getting a good number of strikeouts, and is a basic lock to exceed his career high in wins, but Weaver has been disappointing his owners lately. Given the season he had last year, I can't say that I am supremely confident that this is a small bump in the road and won't continue. I still think Weaver has a good chance to win at least 15 games, but seeing that he had 10 wins at the break, is that really a very good thing?

Charlie Morton had his best start since coming to Pittsburgh from Atlanta in the Nate McLouth trade. Morton threw seven shutout innings, allowed just three hits and struck out six. Now, before you get too excited, his minor league ERA was over 4.00 for his career, and in 15 starts for the Braves last season his ERA was over 6.00. He is not a guy that I would trust unless you are in a 20 team league and you have been dealt a hand that includes a lot of injuries. Stay away from Morton at this point.

Franklin Gutierrez has been a popular pickup lately because he has been so hot, but please don't expect this hitting to continue. He showed some promise in the lower levels of the minor leagues in the earlier in the decade, but since then the projections for his future have dropped. He is already very close to his career highs for homers and RBI and he will likely surpass them, but he will not continue to produce at this clip. Sell high if you can, if not, ride him while he is hot but don't expect it to continue.

Randy Wells actually collected a win on Saturday, but it was the second consecutive start that he allowed four earned runs. He improved to 5-4, but only struck out one batter and raised his ERA to an even 3.00. For those of you who have been reading this column for a while, you know I don't have a ton of confidence in Wells going forward. I think that he will have his share of decent starts, but I think these last few where he has allowed four runs are the start of a trend. Look for that ERA to continue to climb for the rest of July and August.

Manny Parra had his second consecutive solid start since returning from the minor leagues, and now looks like he belongs on fantasy rosters again. Parra allowed only one run over six innings and struck out six against the Reds who aren't an anemic offense. I can't say that I have supreme confidence in Parra going forward, but he has at least proven that he made some sort of adjustment in his time in AAA, and hopefully will stay on the right track. He is a bit of a risk, but it is a good risk at this point.

The demise of Zack Greinke has been horribly over publicized and is just not factual, and tonight he put another chapter in his fantastic season. He might not have gotten the win, but Greinke was rock solid against the Rays. He allowed just one run over seven innings and struck out seven. For all of you who have been worried about Greinke, he has allowed more than three earned runs in a start just twice all year long, and still has more strikeouts than innings pitched. Wins are a bit more of a problem since the Royals have gone in the tank, but he is still an elite pitcher and one of the better keepers as far as pitchers are concerned.

As always, your comments and questions are welcome at fightingchancefantasy@gmail.com. I guarantee a response within 18 hours. Also, don't miss the "Fantasy Baseball Tonight" podcast four nights a week from Monday-Thursday. The Big Show on Wednesday is co-hosted by Todd Farino of fantasybaseballsearch.com, RC Rizza of junkyardjake.com and myself, Ryan Hallam at fightingchancefantasy.com. To hear the show go to www.blogtalkradio.com/the_true_guru. You can also hear me weekly on the Tuesday Night show. Join me with Jeff Mans every Tuesday night at 10pm EST for all the the info and craziness we can pack into one hour. A can't miss if you plan on winning your league.

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Saturday, June 27, 2009

Fantasy Baseball Tonight 6/27


Scott Kazmir returned to the Rays' rotation, and I have to say he pitched much better than I anticipated. Kazmir was struggling badly before he was placed on the DL, but his pitching line was pretty sharp on Saturday. Kazmir was his usual self, only lasting five innings, but allowed just two runs, walked only one and struck out five. While I expect Kazmir to be better than he was to open the year, I figured he would struggle in his first couple times to the mound. Regardless of whether he was good or not today, Kazmir is the kind of pitcher that you start every time out, regardless of the matchup. To make room for Kazmir the Rays sent Andy Sonnanstine to the minors, which is great news for David Price owners. It certainly seems like he was another candidate to be sent down.

A.J. Burnett has had a very up and down season for the Yankees, but today was what they expected when they handed out that contract. Granted the Mets have a ton of injuries, but Burnett was masterful none the less. He threw seven shutout innings, allowed just one hit and struck out ten. I don't believe that this is Burnett turning the corner, I still think that he will be very inconsistent and will have his share of difficult outings. On a positive note, he has been perfectly healthy so far in 2009.

For those of you who listen to the Tuesday podcast of Fantasy Baseball Tonight, you know I have been waiting for the start by Homer Bailey. I said he would stink, Jeff said pick him up. Now, he only allowed three runs in five innings, but Bailey walked seven. I stand by my position. DO NOT pick this guy up. Not every high ranking prospect always pans out, and I stand firm by my belief that Bailey will not be a successful Major Leaguer.

John Lackey finally pitched like the John Lackey that we know, and he is a guy that I think will round into shape and will begin to pitch better more often than not in the future. Lackey didn't allow an earned run over seven innings and struck out nine. Lackey has had some injury troubles in the past couple seasons, but when he is in there, Lackey is one of the more underrated pitchers in baseball. If you can get him kinda cheap I would think about making a move to trade for him, but if you have him, feel good that you should be getting more production from him in the future.

J.A. Happ had the performance of day though, making his fantasy owners Happ-y as he threw a complete game shutout against the Blue Jays. Happ allowed just five hits, didn't walk anyone and struck out four to raise his record to 5-0. He had a couple of rocky outings recently, so it was good to see him get back on track. To me Happ is the kind of guy that you can expect to give up three runs over six innings and strikeout four. That should be the average outing for him. Some will be better, some far worse, but overall he should be a useful pitcher to have.

Scott Podsednik continues to play for the White Sox, and he continues to produce. His four hit game on Saturday was his third straight contest with two hits or more, and all he needed was a triple for the cycle. I still don't have supreme confidence that he will be a reliable player all year long, but right now he is hot, and if you need batting average and stolen bases, Podsednik could be just the shot in the arm your team needs.

Nolan Reimold is perhaps my favorite rookie of the first half of the season. He hit his ninth homer of the year today, and continues to hover around the .300 mark. Reimold has been starting on every team that I own him on, and unless your outfield is unusually stacked, he should be starting for you as well.

I guess Pablo Sandoval wasn't happy about me saying that I didn't expect a ton of power out of him yesterday, because he went out on Saturday and hit two more homers. Sandoval is now up to 11 on the season to go with his .340 average. I was happy that I picked him for my guy in the 56 Game Hit Streak game on USA Today.com. He got my streak going again after it was broken by Curtis Granderson. Please join our group to see if you can do any better. Just follow the link above, and the private group is called Fantasy BBall 2nite and the password is fantasy.

Kyle Blanks drove in the first three runs of his major league career with a two double game against the Rangers. Blanks is one of the better power hitting prospects in the majors, but he has struggled to start his time with the Padres. Keeper league players will want to stash him on your bench, while seasonal players probably don't need to own him at this point.

Kazuo Matsui has hit in every game but two since returning from the Disabled List last week, and hit his first home run since the third game of the year. Matsui isn't the best option in the world, but if you have a need at second base or middle infield he could offer you a little help. He is traditionally a .280 hitter and has stolen 20+ bases in each of the last two seasons. He has a tough time staying healthy, but tends to be fairly productive when he plays.

Chris Davis hit his second homer in three days, and third in the last eight. He has also gotten his average above the Mendoza line, up to .212. Is this the start of the hot streak we all have been waiting for over the last three months? I am not ready to say that yet, heck I'm not even ready to take him off my bench yet. But he has my attention because of the power that he is capable of.

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