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Monday, July 27, 2009

Fantasy Baseball Tonight 7/27


Jeff Francoeur hit his third home run as a Met, and he continues to be the offensive force the Mets have so badly needed all year long. He has 13 RBI since coming over from Atlanta and MIGHT be worth a spot on your roster. I would feel much more comfortable if he was either a fourth outfielder or some bench insurance, but in larger leagues he could be in your lineup. I really don't see this continuing, but he should be an integral parts of the Mets offense while their stars are hurt. In fact, he could be even better when the Mets' hitters are healthy, as he would be surrounded by better hitters.

When Julio Lugo was traded to the Cardinals, I wasn't sure that he would get enough playing time to warrant fantasy consideration. Since coming over, Lugo has nine hits in four games and has started each day. If you are in dire need of middle infield help, I would give him a chance. He had some pretty decent steal numbers in Boston when he was healthy.

Ryan Garko has been traded to the San Francisco Giants for a low level minor leaguer. He had finally started to get hot and the Indians were playing him in the outfield to get his bat into the lineup, but now he should have no problem playing everyday. The Giants have tried lots of guys at first, but Garko should see the lion's share of starts there. NL-only leagues or teams in need of some pop could possibly try Garko.

Kelly Shoppach could be the number one beneficiary of this trade. With Garko out of the mix, that could have the Tribe moving Victor Martinez to first base more often, which would get Shoppach in the game more. He hit 21 home runs in limited at bats last year when Martinez was injured, so he could be a nice addition down the stretch. He only hit .261 over that time, so you have to be patient with his batting average. Shoppach started tonight, keep an eye out to see how much he plays in the next couple days.

Alex Gordon has started to hit a little bit. Gordon had two hits on Monday and now has hit safely in five straight games, and he has driven in two runs over that span. I wouldn't run out and grab him right now, but the guy was an elite prospect, so if he starts to hit some more, he could be worth adding. Definitely monitor Gordon in the near future.

Michael Saunders was called up a couple of days ago by the Seattle Mariners and has been installed as the everyday left fielder. He was ranked as the second best prospect in the Mariners organization by Baseball America coming into the season, and in 64 games at AAA he was hitting .310 with 13 HRs and 32 RBI. He will also bring you a decent amount of speed and could steal 15-20 bases in a full season. In his first two games for Seattle he is 2/8 with an RBI. He seems to be flying under the radar so far, but keep an eye on him over the next couple of days to see if he can help you.

Jonny Gomes hit two home runs on Monday, and now has five in the last seven days. So, is he someone you can expect to continue to do this? In a short answer, no. Gomes has shown power in small bursts throughout his career, but he has never been a consistent enough hitter to either stay in a lineup or even in the major leagues. This is short lived, don't buy into it.

Homer Bailey pitched fairly well, but I urge you to temper your excitement. Just remember that it was against the Padres. Second, his last two starts were nightmares, so he hasn't been anything near consistent. Unless you are in an NL-only, or a 16 team league, I would just leave Bailey in free agency, it is likely where he belongs.

Nyjer Morgan reached the 30 steal plateau this season. He has been a great surprise, as his batting average is above .300 as well. He doesn't drive in many runs, but he is at least a two category guy, and if he is helping you in steals he isn't someone I would sell high on, I think he will get close to 45 for the year.

I will be joining Steve Gardner at usatoday.com for the third installment of the Fantasy Roundtable on Tuesday 7/29 at 12pm EST. This one will focus on the trade dealine, but any topic in fantasy can be discussed. It will be featuring a more user friendly chat format, and should be smoother than our previous attempts. You can join us here, and I look forward to seeing many of you at the chat.

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Friday, July 17, 2009

Fantasy Baseball Tonight 7/17


Josh Hamilton finally hit his first home run and stole his first base since returning from the Disabled List, and he did them both in the same game. Hamilton was 3/4 and drove in three runs, calming some of his fantasy owners' fears that he would not return to the form we are accustomed to after his many injuries this year. It is just one game, but this is a step in the right direction. The guy was a monster last year, if he is healthy, and we have to believe he is, he should mash in the second half.

Chris Carpenter continues his magical season with another dominating performance against the Diamondbacks on Friday. Carpenter scattered seven hits over eight innings and struck out seven batters. He is now 8-3 with an ERA of only 2.26 and a WHIP of 0.88. He was a large injury risk coming into the season, but for those of you with some stones, he is paying off big time. I certainly hope I don't need to say that Carpenter is a must start every single game he is in.

Clay Buchholz pitched very well for himself, and now the question is whether he will be able to stay in the big leagues or whether he will be headed right back down to Pawtucket. Buchholz allowed only one run over 5.2 innings, walked three and struck out three. It wasn't dominant, but it was obviously more than the Sox needed. He certainly deserves to stay with the big club, but barring a trade of Brad Penny or an injury somewhere, I have to think that he is going back down. Man, I hope I'm wrong!

Aramis Ramirez hit his first homer since May 6th, and it was his first since coming back from injury. He is a perpetual 30 home run guy, and although he won't get there this year, he should have a good second half of the year. Look for Aramis to threaten to hit 20 homers, but I believe he will fall a little short.

Ricky Romero was able to strike out eight batters on Friday, but he couldn't even get through the fifth inning, and he also walked five guys. Romero allowed four runs, and his WHIP went up over 1.30. I have been skeptical of him all season long, and to this point he has proven me wrong. Is this the start of a bad streak? I don't wish that on anyone, but I would not be surprised if he had a bad stretch at the end of July.

Edwin Encarnacion homered for the second straight game, and is now 7/7 in the two games after the All-Star Break. If all goes well, Edwin could hit ten or twelve more homers before the end of the year, and he is worth at least a bench spot on your team, I just wouldn't put much stock in him. He is helped by the fact that there are about four good 3Bs this year.

Martin Prado continues to hit, and I continue not to buy in to it. Prado doubled and homered on Friday, raising his season average to .330. He has certainly gotten a stranglehold on the second base job for Atlanta and he has five multi-hit games in the last eight. This is the first chance in his career to get regular at bats and he is certainly making the most of it, but I really don't see this trend continuing. You might be able to sell high on him while he is hot.

Chad Billingsley had his worst outing of the season by far, as he didn't even get out of the second inning. Billingsley was pounded for six runs and didn't strikeout a batter. This is his second straight HORRIBLE start. However, there is no indication that anything is wrong with Billingsley physically, so you have to continue to pitch him every fifth day. He has to turn this around sometime soon, he is too good to pitch this poorly.

Alex Gordon was back in the lineup for the first time since April 15th, and he was able to contribute a single. I have absolutely no idea what to expect from him in the second half of this season. Chances are he will continue to disappoint, not only has he not played in three months, but I have also read that he is coming back at less than 100%. If you have a roster spot that is just rotting he is worth a flier, but other than that I would leave him be.

As always, your comments and questions are welcome at fightingchancefantasy@gmail.com. I guarantee a response within 18 hours. Also, don't miss the "Fantasy Baseball Tonight" podcast four nights a week from Monday-Thursday. The Big Show on Wednesday is co-hosted by Todd Farino of fantasybaseballsearch.com, RC Rizza of junkyardjake.com and myself, Ryan Hallam at fightingchancefantasy.com. To hear the show go to www.blogtalkradio.com/the_true_guru. You can also hear me weekly on the Tuesday Night show. Join me with Jeff Mans every Tuesday night at 10pm EST for all the the info and craziness we can pack into one hour. A can't miss if you plan on winning your league.

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Tuesday, February 10, 2009

Breakout Prospects: Third Base

Alex Gordon (L/R) -- Royals -- Gordon is in a strange position heading into the 2009 season. For once, he is no longer labeled a top prospect nor is anybody touting him as a franchise player anymore. In fact, many have already labeled Gordon a major league bust. No doubt he will be passed over or forgotten altogether come fantasy draft time but I am here to tell you not so fast. Gordon played only one minor league season and will be just 25 years old in 2009. Despite a lack of eye popping numbers he improved in most statistical categories in '08 including BA, OBP, SLG, HR, R and cut his strikeout total over 10%. He also made tremendous strides against LHP and improved his fly ball rate which is a good indicator of yet-to-come power. Don't give up on Gordon. He will be available in the mid-late rounds as players with much less upside are taken ahead of him. The Royals are a team that is finally starting to build something and by allowing their young players to grow they are doing themselves and fantasy players a great service.


Josh Fields (R/R) -- Whitesox -- Fields will likely win the Whitesox starting 3B job in spring training. He has been working all offseason with the Whitesox bench coach Joey Cora in order to improve his defense which was a big irritent to manager Ozzie Guillen. Fields has big time power potential especially playing in the launching pad of U.S. Cellular Field. Fields went for above average OPB in the minor leagues but that probably won't translate as he can get fooled by quality big league pitchers. The Whitesox have another young power hitting 3B prospect on the horizon in Dayan Viciedo but Joe Crede is gone and Fields will get his chance this year to make an impact. Fields very well could knock out 35+ HR's and drive in 90+ runs in this explosive Whitesox order. Great value in the middle rounds of this years draft.


Pablo Sandoval (S/R) -- Giants -- The Giants have a wealth of young talented prospects and none were as hot as Sandoval after his September call-up last season. Pablo hit .345 with 3 HR's and 24 RBI in just 145 AB's. I have noticed that some fantasy people are praising him as the next big run producer for the G-men. Sandoval has shown over 5 minor league seasons that he has the ability to get red-hot and carry a team for a couple of weeks but also to come crashing down and get into ruts with his swing especially from the right side. He will be just 22 entering this season however and has found his power stroke of late. Sandoval also has the ability to play behind the plate and 1B as well which guarantees him plenty of AB's in '09.


Dallas McPherson (L/R) -- Marlins -- Injuries have derailed what once was a very promising major league prospect in McPherson. Just a few years ago he was the answer at 3B for the Anaheim Angels and the reason they let Troy Glaus leave in free agency. After missing the entire 2007 season due to back surgery, McPherson signed wtih the Marlins and proceeded to lead every minor leaguer in HR's with 42 last season. He has got a big time power stroke and the bonus ability to take pitches, work the count and take a walk. Although Jorge Cantu is penciled in as the starting 3B, I expect Cantu to either be traded or regulated to a platoon role at 1B/3B for either McPherson or Gaby Sanchez if one of them starts out cold. McPherson is a guy you take real late in the draft and hold onto until he gets regular time and begins racking up the OBP & HR numbers of a early round 3B.

David Freese (R/R) -- Cardinals -- With Troy Glaus likely to miss the first month or so of the season it is my belief that David Freese will open the season as the Cardinals 3B. Freese has one of those natural swings that translates into high BA and has progressed into plus power. At 26, he is getting a late start on his pro career but seems to have some veteran savvy that shows in his ability to shorten his swing and hit to the opposite field with authority. As his name suggests, Freese is prone to dry spells in which he strikeouts in bunches. After making the leap from A to AAA last season he led the Cardinals organization in OPS (.911) and RBI (91). He is in prime position to make the team now and see a lot of playing time in Glaus' absence. Keep a close eye on him in spring training and if the batting average holds true, take a shot on him in the later rounds of your draft.

Those are a few of the guys I have on my radar heading into spring training. What are your thoughts? Agree? Disagree? Post your comment below or email me at jeff@fantasybaseballsearch.com

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