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OF Adam Lind,Blue Jays, The path to notoriety as a reputable power hitter certainly wasn't smooth for Adam Lind, but after three previous tries at the major-league level the young slugger finally settled in and produced an impressive stat line in 2009, finishing with 35 HRs, 114 RBI with a batting average of .305. Lind had always been a standout hitter in the minors, showing good patience at the plate, and ultimately finishing with a very respectable .318 BA, and 55 HRs in 419 minor league games. However, what was most surprising about Lind's terrific season last year, is that he had never shown 35 HR power before. For example, his minor league stats translated into about 22 HRs per season, while his pre-2009 major league numbers suggested 18 HRs over 162 games. If you are going to draft Lind this year, it will likely cost you a 4th round pick, but it may be realistic to expect a slight drop in HR's to the 25-30 level.
RP Leo Nunez,Marlins, - Leo Nunez pretty much inherited the Marlin's closer position out of default in 2009, but the results were generally good across the board - 26 saves, an ERA of 4.06, a WHIP of 1.25 and a .230 BAA. This of course is not to say that Nunez can now be considered a reliable closer, as he did have 7 blown saves last year. However, with the ability to throw in the mid-90's with decent control, he is off to a good start. The Marlins unloaded their 2009 opening day closer Matt Lindstrom in the offseason, and although they did recently sign Derrick Turnbow, Nunez enters 2010 as the clear favorite to close games for Florida. The really good news for fantasy purposes is that Nunez seems like one of the better values in drafts this year. He is currently being taken in about the 19th round, right after closers like Matt Capps and Kerry Wood.
The True Guru 2010 Projections: 37 saves, 4 wins, 3.60 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, 65 K
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The calendar says we are half way home, how are you doing in your leagues this year? We are now through April, May and June with July, August and September yet to go.
Adam Lind hit his 16th homer of the year, and the questions will arise again about his future. Is this a breakout season for Lind or just a one year wonder. I think it is somewhere in the middle. While I feel that Lind is going to be a quality player going forward, I don't think that he will be a consistent 30-35 homer kind of guy. Lind has a heck of a chance to get to 30 jacks this year, but he is on pace for 35+ and I can't see him reaching that.
Leo Nunez looks like he is now healthy enough to be the closer for the Marlins as long as Lindstrom will be out. After Dan Meyer got the first few chances, Nunez has gotten the last couple saves and he is looking pretty good. Nunez didn't allow a hit or a walk and struck out two. If for some reason he hasn't been added in your league, absolutely pick him up.
Jordan Zimmerman was good again, but again the Nationals weren't good enough to get him a win to show for his effort. Zimmerman allowed two runs over six innings and struck out six. The kid has five straight starts that he has allowed two runs or less. Unfortunately he has only one win to show for it. He is a good pitcher to own....unless you need wins.
Ricky Romero continues to pitch well, but for some reason I'm still not jumping on the bandwagon. Romero has an ERA under 3.00, WHIP of 1.24, and he is 6-3. What is there not to like? I still go back to his minor league statistics. I know that you can't put total stock in those numbers, but I can't forget them. I have picked him up and pitched him, but I am just waiting for the implosion.
The Orioles might have blown his win, but Brad Bergeson pitched well yet again. Bergeson allowed just one run over eight innings and struck out six. After allowing four runs to the Nationals on May 24th, Bergeson's ERA was 5.49. Seven starts and four straight wins later, Bergeson's ERA is now sitting at 3.53. Now I feel the need to point out that he faced Philly (his bad start), the Mariners twice, Atlanta, and Washington during this streak, but today was versus the Red Sox. I am not drinking the Kool-Aid just yet, but I have poured it into the glass.
Mike Pelfrey gave the Mets just what they needed, a huge outing from a starting pitcher. He threw 7.2 shutout innings, walked just two and struck out six. It was his best and longest outing in quite a while, and although I would like to trust Pelfrey, I am not adding him to my teams. The Mets are just so riddled by injuries right now that I don't trust that they can put any kind of consistent offense together (like tonight's one run), and thus their starters have to be perfect in order to win. He's decent, not great, but certain times he is very good. I wish you luck figuring out when those times might be.
Jason Hammel has been a great addition to the Rockies pitching staff, but I still do not have enough faith in him to start him every time out. He pitched a full eight innings today, allowed just one run and struck out five. He didn't deserve the loss that dropped his record to 5-4, but that is where he stands. He has now allowed three runs or less in eight of his last ten starts, but his career numbers say that this is not for real. His ERA has been well into the 5.00s throughout his career, so there has to be a correction to this great run that he is on.
Dallas Braden now has nine straight starts that he has allowed three runs or less, the problem being that tonight was his first win in his last five starts. He also isn't a huge strikeout pitcher, so his value is limited. He is helping you in ERA and WHIP (1.26), but wins and Ks he isn't bringing much to the table. Braden is a decent guy to have as your sixth pitcher, but if he is higher than that, you may need to improve your pitching staff.
Randy Wells is another guy who has been pitching pretty well that I am just not sold on based on his minor league statistics. Explain to me how a guy who had three seasons of an ERA over 4.00 and didn't even start exclusively can come up and get major league hitters out. It just doesn't add up to me. However, you can not argue with the fact that he has won three straight starts and has an ERA under 2.50. I'm standing by my opinion that Wells will come back to earth sometime in the near future.
Jose Contreras had a great outing after it seemed he was going back to being the average pitcher that we all know him as. Contreras threw eight innings, allowed two runs and struck out eight. I do not put any stock into Contreras going forward. He might be 56 years old for all we know, and I don't trust him to pitch well consistently. Don't fall into the trap.
I mentioned on tonight's Fantasy Baseball Tonight podcast that Erik Bedard might pitch on Saturday. That has now been edited that he will throw a simulated game on Friday, and could start on Tuesday now against the Orioles. He would be on a pitch limit of 80, and this start is not set in stone yet, so don't go activating Bedard just yet.
As of now Brandon Webb will avoid shoulder surgery and hopes to return in September. I am skeptical that a team going nowhere will bring back their ace pitcher with just a few weeks left. If you have DL spots left I would stash him, but if not, I am torn about what to do with him.
Aramis Ramirez will begin a rehab assignment on Friday and hopes to return ot the Cubs lineup on Monday. A guy like Aramis who has a history of injury could possibly have setbacks before he is activated, but as of now you might get your 3B back next week.
Nelson Cruz left tonight's game with a stiff back, and it is too soon to know if this injury will cost him any time. I never like to see an athlete have trouble with his back, so I am a bit concerned, but I am not ready to give any advice out until I hear more. Hopefully Cruz won't have to miss any games.
Alexei Ramirez also left the game tonight with an injured finger and his manager has already said that he will sit out Thursday's game. Ramirez has really turned it on this month, so his fantasy owners (me included) are really hoping that this is nothing. He is also supposed to undergo x-rays, so hold your breath that the news is good.
Newly acquired Cardinal Mark DeRosa will miss three to four games with a strained tendon in his wrist. Hopefully that is all that he will miss and the trade of Chris Perez wasn't for nothing. Keep DeRosa on your bench throughout the weekend.
He didn't arrive with much fanfare, but Mike Aviles has been one of the better rookie hitters so far in 2008. The Royals 2007 Minor League Player of the Year hit 17 HRs and drove in 77 runs in 2007. He was on pace to crush that season in 2008 before the Royals summoned him to play with the big boys (.336/10/42 in 51 games in '08). Aviles got off to a great start, but had many fantasy owners not believing that he was for real. Like all young hitters he will slump from time to time (no hits in last nine at-bats currently), but his track record says that he will continue to hit. And with no competition to take his job with the Royals, he should be a great pickup at a weak position.
Chase Headley, San Diego Padres
.254, 4 HRs, 6 RBI (15 games)
Headley is one of the better hitting prospects in baseball, and would have had a starting job out of Spring if he was ready to play left field. But he went down the minors, crushed the baseball, and learned the outfield. Now that he is back with the Pads, he is looking to keep on doing what he has been.....hitting baseballs out of the park. Since his call up on June 17th, Headley has only gone hitless twice, and has an eight game hitting streak going right now. He has shown pretty good power at the major league level and just needs to cut down on the strikeouts. I don't see him returning to the minors again anytime soon, so if you need some help, Headley could be a good option for you.
Max Ramirez, Texas Rangers
.150, 1 HR, 3 RBI (6 games)
Has Jarrod Saltalamacchia fallen out of favor in Texas already? Everyone thought he would be the starting catcher out of Spring, but the job was given to Gerald Laird. Then Laird gets hurt, and up from AA comes Max Ramirez. Ramirez was making the minors look like Junior Varsity as he was hitting .363 with 17 homers and 50 ribbies in just 67 games. However, it is looking like the jump from Double-A to the majors might have been too big for Max, as he is struggling mightily at the plate. Don't be surprised to see him return to the farm if he struggles more in the next few days. Keep his name in the back of your mind for next season, however, perhaps then he might be ready for prime time.
Brett Gardner, New York Yankees
.100, 1 RBI, 2 SBs (3 games)
The Yankees needed to inject some speed into their lineups and did so with the promotion of Gardner. He is certainly never going to wow you with his power, as he never even hit 10 homers in a season in the minors, but that's not why you would own him. Gardner has blazing speed and has the potential to steal 50 bases in the majors if he were ever to get regular playing time. That's a problem on the Yankees, as with Melky Cabrera, Bobby Abreu, Johnny Damon, and Hideki Matsui, at-bats in the outfield are tough to come by. But with Matsui hurt, and Damon crashing into the wall on Friday, perhaps Gardner will get some playing time, and if you need steals, this is a good place to go to get them.
Chris Davis, Texas Rangers
.316, 3 HRs, 7 RBI (7 games)
The Rangers best hitting prospect came to the majors to inject some more power into that lineup, and so far he has delivered. Davis was putting up big numbers in the minors before his call up (.333/14/42 in just 46 games) and has continued hitting in Texas. Rumors are that he might return to the minors when Hank Blalock returns from the DL, but I have two thoughts on that. One, if he keeps hitting like this, how do you send him down? Two, Hank Blalock come off the DL? Who really thinks that is going to happen anytime soon? Or even if he does it is just a matter of time before he is hurt again. I like Davis, big time.
Billy Butler, Kansas City Royals
.428, 1 HR, 1 RBI (4 games)
One of the top hitting prospects in ALL of baseball, Butler has been a guy that we have been waiting for to hit .315 or better and bash out 25+ home runs. However, in his short major league career he has yet to show that power potential that he flashed in the minors. In 2007 at AAA, Butler connected on 13 homers in just 57 games, which translates to nearly 40 over an entire season. However, in his 149 games at the major league level he has just ten. Butler has a world of talent and in deeper (16+ teams) or keeper leagues, you should probably make a move on Butler now, depending on your roster.
Adam Lind, Toronto Blue Jays
.333, 3 HRs, 10 RBI (8 games)
This is far from Lind's first stint in the major leagues, but so far it has certainly been his most productive. I have been one of Lind's biggest critics as I haven't seen anything in his game to match all the hype that surrounded his ascension to the majors. He had shown SOME power in his other trips to Toronto, but his batting average was so bad, that you couldn't afford to keep him on your roster. In his previous call-up earlier this year, Lind was only able to collect one hit in six games, while striking out three times. Something might have finally clicked for him though, as he has been a nice shot in the arm for the Blue Jays offense. He has driven in six of those runs in the past three games, and although his average is still not impressive, he might be worth a spot on your team.
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By this time of the year everyone is watching free agency trying to plug that injury hole, or that guy we thought was going to be a star that didn’t pan out.These are a few guys that could help your roster and keep you on track toward the title.
Hitters
Mike Aviles, KC.The Royals Minor League Player of the Year in 2007, Aviles has been just what the doctor ordered in Kansas City since his call up.In 18 games, Aviles is hitting .336 with three homers and 13 RBI.At AAA last season, Aviles hit .296 with 17 homers and 77 ribbies, which means this production isn’t necessarily a fluke.Given his age and the fact he plays a middle infield position, I see no reason not to take a flier on the young shortstop, he has the everyday job for now.
Elijah Dukes, WAS.In his last six games, Dukes has nine hits, two homers and three ribeyes.He is currently hitting .264, and although he looks like someone worth owning, you have to be aware of his off the field problems.Dukes is always just a day away from a possible suspension or act that could cause him to be looked upon unfavorably in the organization.Take into account the time just a couple of weeks ago where he refused to slap his manager five, after Manny Acta took exception to Dukes and Milledge dancing.It doesn’t appear to have cost him this time, but the potential is always there.
Adam Lind, TOR.When Blue Jays Shawn Marcum got hurt, it came with the recall of one of their better hitting prospects, Adam Lind. Lind has been up with the big club before, but it has seemed on each one of his tours of duty that he was completely overmatched and might not be able to hit major league pitching. So far in his first time with the big club he has been hitting this time (although it is only three games). Lind connected on his second homer in three games, and he has the talent to be a great hitter, perhaps he will start to put it together.
Jorge Cantu, FLA.It might be too late for Cantu already, but he is certainly setting the fantasy world on watch in recent weeks.Bring back memories from 2005 when Cantu was a big hitting 2B, he is hitting .280 with 14 homers and 43 driven in.Even though he is now at third and not the shallow second base position, Cantu is proving to be someone who belongs on someone’s roster, if not their starting lineups.
Just coming to the majors:Chris Davis, 3B, TEX
Pitchers
Mike Pelfrey, NYM.Is this time that he starts living up to all the potential we have been hearing about?Take it easy, it is too soon to make that statement yet.Pelfrey has been pitching better as of late, in four of his last five starts he allowed two runs or less.If I had a spot at the end of my rotation, or an injury to someone like Carlos Zambrano, I would carry Pelfrey on my roster until I got healthy.Just temper your expectations and don’t expect an ace and you won’t be disappointed by Pelfrey.
Charlie Morton, ATL.The latest rookie to try to keep the Braves’ ship afloat, Morton was called up after he was posting some pretty impressive numbers at AAA.In three starts he has yet to allow more than three runs and his record is 1-1.He pitched pretty well his last time out despite battling the flu, and in the short term Morton isn’t a bad option.He was 5-2 with a 2.05 ERA (72 Ks in 79 IP also) at AAA Richmond, but those were by far his best numbers as a minor leaguer.I am not on the Morton bandwagon as of now, but as a band-aid, he looks to be a decent option.
Darryl Thompson, CIN.He is about to make his second start of the season, and if it is like the first, you might think about picking him up.Even though he walked four batters, Thompson threw five shutout innings in Yankee Stadium in his major league debut, and immediately got the attention of some fantasy owners.He had pretty good minor league numbers, as he was 3-2 with a 1.76 ERA and nearly a strikeout an inning.It is tough to make the transition from AA to the majors, but it has been done before and the Reds seem to have the knack with young pitching all of a sudden.
Luke Hochevar, KC.Hochevar has had a very up and down rookie season, and it is looking more like he is going to be a pretty good pitcher.In three of his last four starts he has allowed only two runs, but he is still walking too many batters and striking out too few.Hochevar was a former number one overall pick, so he has a world of potential, the Royals and fantasy players are just waiting for him to become a little more consistent.
Just Coming to the Majors:John Parrish, SP, TOR
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