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Book 3
- The Gospel Art of Drafting
1)
Drafting is the primary building block of your fantasy
baseball team. We refer to it as “half the battle” in
fantasy baseball. Setting the foundations for your
entire season occurs in 1-2 hours of a draft. Here you
will pick your starters, sleepers, breakout players, and
All-Stars. It requires a comprehensive strategy that
covers each round, and we will examine what type of
player to get and when to grab them.
2)
Most
managers will go into a draft with a strategy of lining
up there first 2-3 rounds, marking sleepers, and will
have a list of players they most want. There is nothing
wrong with doing a draft like that except there is more
you need to do beyond just the first 2-3 rounds.
Managers must prepare and prepare plenty. Since you’ve
already read the first two gospels you know about the
scoring systems, rules, and roster. Now, its time to
put that knowledge to work for you. Knowing in-depth
how your players will score and what players fit the
bill in each position is absolutely an advantage going
into the draft.
3)
The
first draft strategy we will cover in the following
chapter is pre-draft preparedness. We will share the
expert techniques used to prepare a manager for a
fantasy baseball draft.
2.
Pre-Draft Preparations: Get Informed and Updated
4)
Before
you pull out the pen and paper, before you even write
down your sleepers you have to know what’s going on at
that time in MLB. Answer all of the following questions
by researching magazines and sites like
www.fantasybaseballsearch.com.
5)
Note
player movement, and which teams got which free agents.
Who has been traded?
6)
Who is currently injured or has a nagging injury kepping
out of spring training?
7)
Who’s been cut from spring training teams. You don’t
want to waste any of your picks on a player in free
agency.
8)
Who, especially out of the young players is excelling in
spring training?
9)
Also peak at up-to-date top 100 prospects list. You
may find some surprises.
10)
Here’ s a tip that all the best fantasy experts use and
it’s normally a few clicks away. Use the local
newspaper web sites for the MLB teams. If you are
curious about a player or even a possible sleeper, visit
the local newspaper for his team and see what they are
saying about him. The most reliable information you can
get a hold of before that information becomes mainstream
is by reading the teams’ local newspapers.
3.
Pre-Draft Preparations Step: Plan Of Attack
11)
Before
we even start picking players, we need to draw up a plan
of attack for the draft. Most drafts give 30-90 seconds
for a pick, so knowing your options early will allow you
to panic less and by panicking less you make better
decisions. You will need several sheets of paper and
something to write it.
12)
First,
grab a plain piece of white paper. Draw three large
circles on the left-hand side of the paper with enough
room to write in them. Write outfielders/utility,
infield, and pitcher. This is your outline of attack.
Your first pick will be contained in one of these
circles.
13)
From
here on it’s more decision making, and deciding which
players to take. We will get more into that later in
this gospel.
14)
Draw a short line out from each circle. Your second pick will
connect to that line. The strategy here is you don’t
want to repeat taking a certain player with your first
two picks like two pitchers or two outfielders. So for
the outfielder/utility line write “IF” (infield) and “P”
(pitching). For the pitching line write “IF” and “OF”.
For the infield line write “IF”, “OF”, and “P”. The
order in which we said to write it in is the order you
should try and get a player in that position. As you
can see we value infielders in the early rounds.
15)
Continue to use this map to through at least the first 15 picks.
Each time you make a pick based on the need for that
round circle the pick, draw a line, and determine the
positions you need for the next round. That will help
you focus on what you need by narrowing it. Maybe in
round 6 you need a SP (starting pitcher), and then an
outfielder. Marking this on your map will make sure you
don’t waste time researching a closer or first
basemen.
16)
the map aside, pull out a second sheet. Now, choose your #1
draft pick by selecting the number of players that
correspond to your draft pick location. For example,
let’s assume you have the 10th overall pick
in the draft. You would then pick the top 10 players
you would take with your pick. Let’s continue this
example by writing down our top 10 players for 2008. We
will select for the 2008 season AROD, Hanley Ramirez,
David Wright, Jimmy Rollins, Jose Reyes, Matt Holiday,
Johan Santana, Ryan Braun, Chase Utley, Carl Crawford,
and Albert Pujols.
17)
Let’s make it more interesting, by making this example
more even by using the 5th overall pick as
your draft selection. It’s the middle-of-the-road pick,
so it’s a great focal point for the draft. Now you have
to order the top 5 players out of our top 10 list.
Let’s assume your order is starting with AROD, Hanley
Ramirez, Jimmy Rollins David Wright, and Johan Santana
as your top five.
Your first round work is finished because you are
guaranteed to get one of those five players, and in some
cases you’ll get to decide from 2-3 of those players.
18)
Next on
the same sheet, prepare a list for the sleepers you
want. Put as many as you’d like to on the list. Get a
top 100-200 player rankings list. You can find these in
magazines and on web sites like
Fantasy Baseball Search. This list will be valuable
during the draft. However, make sure that the list
reflects how you feel about the players rank. The more
it reflects your ideas, the easier it will be to use it
during the draft. We recommend it over a cheat sheets
because those are just more papers to shuffle through
and waste time. If you wish to have the cheat sheets,
hold them off to the side. You shouldn’t need them
until rounds 11-15, or incase of emergency.
19)
At
draft start time, have all those papers ready and in
front of you. Those papers are your allies in the war
room. Next, we will analyze the draft rounds. Remember,
it’s a must that you draft according to your league
rules, scoring system, and roster. The advice we are
going to give will be somewhat general, but it will
provide you a guide into drafting the best team
possible. We will also try giving that advice from a
point-of-view that represents all league types.
4.
Rounds
1-2, Plan, and Control
20)
The
first two rounds are critical and will establish the
flow for the rest of your draft. It is important that
you get the players you want and that you go into the
third round in the position your plan wants you in.
Again, we will assume you have the overall 5th
pick. You have already mapped out the first five picks
and have your bubbles drawn.
21)
The 1st
round is the only round that you truly know what you
will get. We selected five players, and when your pick
is up, one of those five players has to be there. We
will assume Jimmy Rollins and Johan Santana are left
from your top five. This is where you can start to take
the advantage of the draft by selecting a dominating
player, but by forcing the other managers to consider
their picks. Not only do you want to draft according to
the league rules and scoring, but you also want to take
a franchise player . With your first two picks you must
make an attempt to dominate the positions you select
from. A player like Jimmy Rollins is probably the top
shortstop in the league and would dominate a
tough-to-fill position. Johan Santana is an ace pitcher
no doubt, but it’s much more difficult for him to
dominate his position after a tough year and with so
much competition at pitching. So, when you have a choice
between 2 or more players and you always will, ask
yourself the following questions. Any players that
cannot get a “YES” answer eliminate them from the pick.
22)
Question 1 – Can this player clearly dominate his
position? Let’s define what dominating a position
means. Most leagues will have 10-12 teams, which means
10-12 starters in a given position. Whether you are in
a rotisserie, head-to-head or points league it’s
important to dominate as many positions as possible.
For example, knowing you have the best shortstop over
all gives you a decisive advantage in head-to-head and
in a rotisserie leagues. Remember at the end of the
season you might win by only a few points. Even if you
get the 2nd or 3rd best player in certain
positions you need to win match ups.
23)
We will
talk more about match ups and dominating positions later
in the bible. Regardless of how many teams there are in
your league your goal is to be number one. The answer
to the questions is Jimmy Rollins can dominate his
position at a higher level than Santana.
24)
Question 2 – How deep is this position, can I get a high
quality player (same tier) in this position later in the
draft? For Rollins, “No”, for Santana, “Yes”. Many
pitchers will be left for the second round, but
shortstops will go quickly for the top tier.
25)
You
should ask those questions whenever you have a hard
choice for a player you plan to start. Of course in our
example we already ranked Jimmy Rollins ahead of
Santana, so we take the shortstop. Again, we want to
emphasize the importance of getting a player that
clearly dominates a position. Strategically we will
tell you that if you can get a top notch infielder
outside of 1B in the first round take that player. The
dividends from this pick will start paying off in the
draft itself.
26)
Drafting is just moves in a large long chess game, and
in chess when a player makes a great move, the other
player has to react. One way to dominate a draft is to
get the other managers to react to your pick and not
picking what they need the most. The first round is the
hardest round to establish that in since all the players
are killers and expected to go regardless of your pick,
but your pick can definitely make noise.
27)
On a
new piece of paper note how many players in each
position went in the 1st round. Leave
space for several more rounds. This is the equivalent
of counting cards. If you know what’s been played, then
you have a real good idea what’s coming. Also, on your
150 player ranking sheet, cross off the players picked
while you are waiting.
28)
Its
also a good idea to check the rosters of the 2 or 3
teams drafting in front of you. Sometimes you can tell
their needs by what they have. Even easier, you can
tell what they won’t go for because they already have.
Example, the manager who drafted David Wright in the 1st
round probably won’t be looking at another third basemen
for awhile.
29)
Round 2
is different. While you are in-between picks, its time
to pull out the piece of paper with the circles on it.
Cross out all the ones, but the pick you made. In our
example we got an infielder, which is the best pick you
could make in the first round, so on the line extending
from that circle it should have IF, SP, and OF.
30)
In the
second round, assuming you got your infielder its time
to make some noise if the drafts let you, and at some
point all drafts will let you. In our example 2008
draft we’ll say that 3 shortstops, 3 third basemen, 2
outfielders, a pitcher, and first basemen are out the
door in round one. This is where the psychology plays
into the draft. You know you have the advantage on the
managers who drafts outfielders and pitcher cause the
next crop of players in those positions aren’t far off
from them, and you know they will be fighting over the
infield leftovers. So based on that ask yourself these
questions before you pick:
31)
First,
are there any players that dominate his position? Grab
your 150 player ranking and draw an ‘x’ next to the
players you feel dominate their position.
32)
Next,
ask yourself, which player plays on a team that will
benefit that player’s fantasy stats. Meaning for an
offensive player, does he have a strong offense around
him like the Yankees lineup? For a starting pitcher,
does he have a strong offense and bullpen, and for the
reliever does he have a winning team to get him the
ball? Place a double ‘x’ next to those players. Again,
keep the list confined to 10-20 players because you know
in the 2nd round you’ll be getting one of
them on your list.
33)
This is
where your league rules come into play, because the
final question is which type (pitcher, reliever, power
hitter, or table setter) has a distinct advantage in
your scoring system. If you have determined there is an
advantage for one or more triple ‘x’ those names. You
should have narrowed your list to a handful of players.
When faced with a decision of position dominating
players on good team that have the advantage in your
scoring system go in this order needs: IF, RP, SP, and
OF. It’s that simple. Starting pitching and
outfielders are deep, so you can let them ride an extra
round. How big is the point spread between Jake Peavy
and C.C. Sabathia? Exactly. Give up Peavy and get Miguel
Cabrera. Then in the next round get C.C. Sabathia or the
next best pitcher. It’s that simple.
34)
Hopefully after two picks you have players that can
dominate their positions as the one of the best at that
position. If you have done this, then the draft is in
your control and you are in great shape going forward.
If you were unable to get dominating players at both
positions, you’ll have to make up for it round 3.
5.
Rounds
3-15, The Meat of The Draft
35)
The next 5 rounds will be the hardest of the draft and
where some of the most important picks are made. In the
first two rounds you kind of knew what the selection of
players would be and could narrow it to 25 or so. In
rounds 3-7 all bets are off and anyone can be taken in
any round. No team wins because of the picks they made
in rounds one and two.
36)
Depending on your league’s scoring system these are the
rounds to grab players in key positions. Assuming your
scoring system doesn’t burn pitchers, getting at least
3-4 from these rounds is in excellent idea. . If you’ve
already got a starting pitcher there is nothing wrong
with getting a second to back up your ace, but what is
really critical is getting a top-notch closer.
37)
Closers run many leagues, and like we mentioned earlier
in the bible they have scoring categories all to
themselves. Allot of commissioners give save points
close to the value of wins. I’ve played in leagues
where a win was 20 points and a save was 15 minus 3
points for the save opportunity. Now, the best starting
pitcher may get 22 wins for 440 points. A closer would
get 45 saves out of 50 opportunities for 525 points.
Not all leagues score wins and saves so close, but most
are in the area and either way closers are big boppers.
Their PPI is also through the roof, so in leagues where
you have an innings limit they kick butt and take
names.
38)
In rounds 3-7 get 2 closers, and 1-2 starting pitchers.
The other 1-2 picks should really be the best available
player in a position you need. Getting an awesome bat
in the outfield or a key infielder could do the trick.
Whoever the players are you want to get ask yourself the
questions we asked in verses 22-24 of this gospel. If
you have a chance to get players that dominate their
position, and are on teams that can provide them support
get them.
39)
By round 8 not only should you have the players you need
to already dominate, but you can in fact be in control
the draft from your perspective. If you drafted 2
closers you probably set-off a firestorm of closers
getting drafted, which opens the door for you to pick up
other key players for your starting roster. Rounds 8-15
are still very meaty, and still critical to building
your team so we can’t overlook them.
40)
Round 8-10 acquire another closer, starting pitcher, and
fill in another needed position. No backups. Never
take backups before round 16, unless its an outstanding
player who could be a utility player. That is the only
reason to draft a backup when you still need key
starters.
41)
Rounds 11-15 will set you in cruise control. Dominating
these rounds will put your team over the top. By now
you should have 3 closers, 2-3 pitchers, 4-5 offensive
players?
42)
Check your top 150 rankings and make sure you know which
good players are still left on the table. Odds are you
still need a little of everything. If there is still a
very good catcher out there grab him in one of these
rounds without a doubt. Getting a good catcher at this
point in the draft is a good deal compared to someone
grabbing Victor Martinez in the 2nd round.
43)
Make sure when you exit these rounds you have your
infield complete. Infielders go fast and though there
are plenty of good first basemen, get one now.
You
should have 3 dominating closers, 4-5 starting pitchers,
and 2-3 outfielders/utility players.
44)
The
reason I suggest holding back on starting pitchers,
outfielders, and utility players is there are so many of
them that if anything is going to be available in the
later rounds its those players. Let the other managers
squirm looking for a shortstop or third basemen. You’ll
have a large assortment of pitchers and outfielders to
choose from with the last 10 rounds of the draft.
6.
Rounds
16-25, its Sleeper Time!
45)
Here is
the crazy part of the draft. Not only can’t you gauge
how it will go, but you will see allot of players
drafted you never thought would. Looking to your
sleeper list, now is the time to draft them assuming
they haven’t already been taken.
46)
The
definition of a sleeper has caused problems with the
experts in the fantasy world. What exactly is a
sleeper? Some experts feel a sleeper is simply someone
who they think will do much better in the coming year
then the year before. For example, going into the 2007
season one crazy expert (whom I will not name) said
Grady Sizemore was a sleeper. Now, most if not all of
us not only knew about Grady Sizemore, but he was rated
high in several player ranking lists so therefore he’s
not a sleeper. In the next couple of verses I will give
my definition of a sleeper.
47)
A
sleeper is a player who is relatively unknown and is
earmarked for a great coming season or at some point
will join his MLB club and do great things. It can also
be a player coming off of 1 or more bad seasons and
maybe he joins a new club and his career can catch fire
again. The problem with those types of sleepers is
people tend to know about them. Some examples of
sleepers from last season are Ryan Braun and Hunter
Pence, who both came into the season after it had
started and made huge impacts. Basically, your job is
to look at spring training and see who the teams are
focusing on out of their prospects and comeback
players. There can be different tiers of sleepers as
well, from light sleepers to deep sleepers.
48)
One of
my best sleepers I ever picked besides Ryan Braun (2007)
was Jonathan Papelbon in 2006. As a Red Sox fan I saw
him pitch in limited action in 2005. Then in spring
training of 2006 I saw how Keith Foulke was not
recovering well from his injury. I drafted Papelbon
with the last pick of my draft in that league as a deep
sleeper. Well, The Red Sox pulled him out as their
closer with the first save opportunity of the year and
the rest is history. I did happen to win the
championship that season.
49)
It’s up
to you when to decide to grab your sleepers. Remember
we told you how to handle your bench, so in most cases
you’ll need more pitchers. Always try to get a closer
for your bench, and like I did take a chance on a
sleeper. It’s critical you keep your bullpen strong the
whole season. When Papelbon went down at the end of the
2006 season I had a replacement for him. Make sure you
quickly complete your outfield and get top backups.
Sleepers can make excellent backups in the outfield.
50)
Finally, get as many players as possible that you feel
good with plugging into the utility spot. By the end of
the draft, assuming your positions are relatively
normal, you should have plenty of pitching and 3-5 extra
bats on offense.
7.
Final
Draft Advice
51)
Trying
to predict a draft is nearly impossible. The chapters
above were written to help guide you through the draft.
In this final chapter we will try to remind you of some
basic, but important strategies of drafting.
52)
First
and foremost, plan ahead. As your pick approaches its
good to know a few players you want. Knowing what you
need when your pick comes up saves you from panicking
and making a bad pick that can ultimately ruin your
draft.
53)
Don’t
abandon your plan or your papers. Continue to develop
your draft plan with each pick and monitor the other
team picks by marking the positions they’ve taken.
54)
Always
know what you need. If you took third basemen in the 2nd
round, don’t take one in the 4th round unless
his name is AROD!!! We joke, but unless the player is
so good you can’t pass him and he’ll qualify for the
utility, he’s not worth it. People have asked, “Why
don’t you recommend taking the same position high in the
draft or even consecutive picks.
55)
The
answer is simple logic. The utility player can be
played by anybody and throughout the season you will
find free agents, sleepers, or just good players to not
only fill that roster spot, but maybe you pickup a
surprise free agent who becomes your third basemen and
you slide your other third basemen into the utility
slot. This position id a critical one to fill, but
because its open to all players there are so many
options that it just doesn’t make sense to draft a
player to high for it unless the player is worth the
pick.
56)
Now we
aren’t saying don’t draft Travis Hafner or David Ortiz!
Those are premiere utility players, but beware paying
too much for guys who only play utility and get there
playing time cut during inter-league play.
57)
Remember to control the draft; do not let the draft
control you. The moment you make a pick because of what
others have picked, the draft now controls you. Stay
with your plan and you should do well.
58)
Finally, relax and have fun. The draft is the most
exciting time in fantasy baseball. Remember that the
team you draft won’t be the team you win with. Injuries
will occur, free agents will shine, and sleepers will
perform. The draft is just another building block to a
championship. It’s the most important, but not the only
building block.
59)
Understanding how to properly draft is the primary
building block to a championship team. If you have any
questions about your draft, email us at
thetrueguru@fantasybaseballsearch.com. |
