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Saturday, February 28, 2009

When to switch Draft Strategies

During a draft you will find yourself keeping try to a strategy and then things start to unfold and you might need to switch. But when is the right time and what strategy do you switch to.

Throughout the draft you will keep true to your strategy and then just before your pick you will find someone steals your player and your plan. what to do. Best thing to do in this situation is to see if there is a player on the upper end of your board that can do what the player was going to do for your roster. If this fails then you will have to switch your strategy and you only have at the most 4 minutes if the player went a few picks before you or maybe as little as 90 seconds. So what do you do. It is simple. Simply go for the best player on the board in an other position that you need to fill. If it is later in the draft then you MUST go for the best player on the board even if it is only filling a roster bench spot.

When you are playing the rotisserie leagues and need to switch you can should switch to the fill a category need. in other words hit the stat category link and it should list the players that are left by the best that is left at the stat category. So if you want who is best at stolen bases then hit STOLEN BASES and it should list the remaining players by who has stolen the most bases. I don't always just take that guy. I like to look over the top 10 or so and see who has the best stats of more categories as well as stolen bases.

try that out in a mock draft and see if it has improved your roster. Coming in march will be more intense drafts as spring training fires up and the excitement of the upcoming baseball campaign will fill the draft rooms.

posted by Aj-Paul Pelletier: The Other True Guru at 9:33 AM 0 Comments

Monday, February 23, 2009

Preparing for Draft Day - Mock Drafts - Yahoo

Today we are going to have a real draft in a Competitive Yahoo Rotisserie League. This draft board i am very familiar with and will teach you a few tricks as i go through it tonight.



If you are in a Yahoo league, and i suggest you should try a few out, you have a great tool at your hands to find a few sleepers instead of going by the draft board they give you. Go to the main league page and click on players. There you will have a list of players and you are able to list them in many different ways. You can list them in a list of best to worst in every category in the draft which will help you especially in rotisserie drafts. On top of that you have the O-rank and the Rank. In a 5x5 league you will have 7 different possible lists.

Today i am finally picking in the middle of the draft at 7 and will stick true to best player on the board strategy. Remember, you take the best player on the board all the time. Important thing to remember is that i am trying to fill 5 bases, 3 outfielders, 1 utility, 2 starting pitchers, 2 relief pitchers and 3 pitchers that can be either.

With my first pick I got Miguel Cabrera (1b) and with my second i got Ryan Braun (of). I will now have to address a starting pitcher with one of my next two picks.

With my next pick i reached down a little and took Cole Hamels (sp) as i wasn't really liking any of the batters who were left at that point. I am thinking of picking up another pitcher with my next pick if the right one is there. But what has actually happened is that Carlos Queintin (of) has dropped and i took him in the fourth round as he was a value pick there.

The next round of picks i decided to start with another starting pitcher and took Francisco Liriano (sp) and followed it up with Brad Lidge who will get his share of saves helping that part of the rotisserie.

There are still a lot of great pitchers still available and i am hoping that they start to fall off the board leaving Chipper Jones for me to take with my next pick, which he did and now i will look to follow that up with the best short stop or 2nd baseman available and wait off the pitcher. But I then decided to take Victor Martinez and had him picked right before me so i then picked Rich Harden (sp) leaving me with a solid pitching staff at this point.

With my next pick i thought i would fill my short stop with Derek Jeter and then Veron Wells (of) who will be looking to bounce back after a injury filled season last year.

What i have left to fill are my catcher, 2nd base, utility, a relief pitcher and 2 other pitchers along with 5 bench players. I will now revert to the best player on the board for a few rounds no matter where they play and then fill in the blanks afterwards. My next two picks were Ryan Zimmerman (3b) and Tori Hunter (of). My next pick was Ryan Dempster who had 17 wins last year and getting him at round 14 in a 12 man league was again a value pick. Now i will have to concentrate on relief pitchers but i couldn't leave Johnny Damon and his .303 and 71 RBI's on the board.

Filling the blanks from here started with Derek Lowe who i will try to use in my main rotation and use one of my higher ranked pitchers as trade bate. Soon after i managed to fill my catcher spot with Jorge Posada (c) and then my 2nd baseman with Placido Polanco (2b).

Now i am going to go with back to back relief pitchers and took JJ Putz (rp) thinking his numbers will improve on the Mets and then Hideki Okajima (rp) of the Red Soxs. I only have two bench players Jed Lowrie (3b, ss) will be one of the them followed by Juan Pierre (of) who had 40 stolen bases and and a .283 batting average which will help with those categories in the rotisserie.

try it out and enjoy.

posted by Aj-Paul Pelletier: The Other True Guru at 7:36 PM 0 Comments

Sunday, February 22, 2009

Preparing for Draft Day - Mock Drafts

Today we will talk during another mock draft i am in. Today i am picking 3rd of 10. I have been picking late usually so i will be looking to go with A-Rod as he is falling. Then i will be looking to try to stick to my 1 pitcher 1 batter strategy. I still believe A-Rod has great value and i don't understand why this scandal should have him falling in fantasy when he hasn't been on the roids for 5 years.

And the draft has started and as predicted I got A-Rod. David Wright was there and i was tempted, but I will stand by A-Rod (3b) at three thanks to his solid numbers in ever stat category. With A-Rod falling Hanley Ramirez has been the new #1 kid on the block with Albert Pujois at #2. In the second round i will be looking for a great batter or a top tier pitcher. Since the top hitters were off the table i went with CC Sabathia (p) and will now look to get a batter in the 3rd. With a homer pick i took Roy Halladay (p) another pitcher who will have the #1 spot and will see a 15 win season so i couldn't let him go. I will look to come back with back to back batter in the outfield to boast up my batting. In the fourth round i got Jason Bay (of) and came back with Chipper Jones (3b) . In the 6th and 7th i will look to go back to pitching with at least 1 pick.

The most important thing to remember is to always be ready to change up your strategy thanks to having someone take your player in front of you or you mange to have a player drop to you.

So far everyone is staying around the draft with only 1 auto pick so it is a good mock draft and can be studied for further reference.

Now with my next pick i went with Joe Nathan (p) and was surprised to still have Magglio Ordonez (of) who i see bouncing back this year after a terrible year following up his batting greatness the year before.

in the 8th round i went with Carlos Pena (1b) as i needed a 1st baseman and he was looking the best of what was left at this point. In the 9th i went with Daisuke Matsuzaka (p) for my 3rd starting pitcher.

In this draft you basically have 3 flex players who i will be looking to fill the outfield first as i already have Chipper Jones in one of those flex positions. I myself try not to get too excited about the catcher early as if you keep attention to the early league movements you can find a decent catcher who comes out of no where within the first 20 games of so.

As i watch the picks go down i am looking at and am now very happy to get Rich Harden (p) for my 4th starter. With my next pick i am going to Raul Ibanez (of) and will only have to fill 2 more outfielders.

this is the part of the draft where i like to start taking a few chances with some picks and reaching down the draft board to get players i think will be sleepers and blow up. With some great pitchers still available i will maybe overload on a few and then in a real draft look to trade up to someone i missed earlier in the draft.

In the 12th i got Placido Polanco (2b) filling that position and followed it up with Starting Pitcher Derek Lowe (p). As I was watching the draft board i picked those as i am going to to coming back with BJ Ryan and Carlos Degardo with my next two picks. We will see what happens and I just barely got BJ Ryan (p) but did and now have my second major relief pitcher. I missed Delgardo and got Adam LaRoche (1b) who will fill my second Utility spot. Justin Verlander (p) was my next pick and then went with Jorge Posada (c) to fill the catcher position.

I will leave with that and will try to follow it up with a middle draft spot within the week so you can see the difference of my strategies.

posted by Aj-Paul Pelletier: The Other True Guru at 10:11 AM 0 Comments

Thursday, February 19, 2009

Preparing for Draft Day - Mock Drafts

Today we are going to discuss the MOCK DRAFTS that are available. A few I like to use is CBS, YAHOO and ESPN. CBS will be fine, so will yahoo, but the one you can really use to your benefit is ESPN MOCK DRAFT LOBBY. Click here http://games.espn.go.com/flb/mockdraftlobby to enter as many drafts as you want and not have to play the leagues later. not only that all the managers are usually there for the first 10 rounds at least as they have just entered the league minutes prior to the draft starting instead of days before.

Before we talk strategies lets explain what I mean by picking on an end. if you are picking number 1-3 or the last 3 in the league like 10-12 then you are picking on an end. If you are picking 4-9 you are picking in the middle. The first strategy that I want you to try is when you pick on one end or another. This strategy is the 1 BATTER, 1 PITCHER strategy and you should stay true to it for the first 10 rounds unless there a player has dropped in your lap and you can steal him and still get the other player who you really want as well. for instance, as i write this i am in a mock draft where i am picking 10 of 10. i went with Johan Santana (pitcher) and Jimmy Rollins (short stop) for my first two picks and then when round 3 and 4 came to me i managed to get Bandon Webb and Cole Hamels. I couldn't leave Webb go and i feel as though i am set at starting pitchers. the next 2 rounds i got Chipper Jones (3rd) and Johnathan Papelbon (rp) who is a stud at relief pitcher. my next 2 rounds will will address the outfield as i am solid at pitching and stray away for one go around. i then took Tori Hunter (of) and Corey hart (of). Now i will go back to 1 of each again unless there are two batters who are gifts. But what actually happened is i took Daisuke Matsuzaka (p) and Rich Harden (p). Now i have 5 solid starters and maybe use one of the as trade bate. The one sleeper at this point of the draft that i was tempted to take was Aj Burnett who will get his share of wins in New York and is still available and if still there next go around i will own him after getting another outfielder. Next up I got Chris Young (of) and Burnett (p) and now i can trade Matsuzaka or Webb and still have an amazing pitching staff.
now i get a few base players and a few relief pitchers. the two batters i then got were Placido Polanco (2b) and Carlos Delgardo (1b). Polanco under achieved after signing with Detroit and will look to rebound. Delgardo had a great end to last year and will hopefully be a great 14th round pick. i then continued with batters with Milton Bradley (of) and Lastings Milledge (of). Now i will look for a everyday Catcher if there is any left and a utility player. If a good relief pitcher is there i might go there before the utility player.

good luck all and try this mock draft lobby and this strategy.

posted by Aj-Paul Pelletier: The Other True Guru at 7:08 PM 0 Comments

Wednesday, February 18, 2009

Draft Prepartion Tip #1: List Your Picks

One of the biggest problems people have with drafting is preparation. Sure you will have your favorite fantasy sites open to the cheat sheets, magazines ready to go, and some paper to write on. We all study players for weeks before the draft, but the mistake we make is we don't make a list of the players we want to pick in time for the draft. Sort of a dream team with several choices in each position. This blog will discuss the simple, but useful method of making a pre-draft pick list.

After you have studied all the players or better yet while you are studying the players you think will be the best options for your team, write them done in sequential order for each position. Say for 1B you have the following list:

Mark Texeria
Kevin Youkilis
Chris Davis
Joey Votto
Mike Jacobs

I think 4-5 players is fine. You could go deeper than that if you want to, but over preparing can be just as bad as under preparing. Make a similar list for each infield position and catcher. For outfielders make a list 15-25 outfielders . These guys go in bunches, so having at least 20 outfielders researched and selected will give you the best advantage when your sixty seconds comes up. List 10 closers minimum and for starting pitchers make three lists; Aces, Stable Pitchers, and Sleepers/Breakouts. I would have 10 or more of each. The reason you want to break up pitchers is to balance your rotation for at least the start of the season. You can have all aces and cheap sleepers you can draft, but you also must have your stable veteran pitchers who will do just about what is expected. An even mixture of those types of pitchers is a winning formula.

Once you have the lists completed and ready to go and you enter the draft room, you are now ready for most anything the draft can throw at you. Let's examine the first pick. We will assume you have the 2nd overall pick. Hanley Ramirez is off the board. before the draft you probably determined a draft flow strategy for which positions, player types, and scoring categories you would go for first if the option was available. We will do another blog of Draft Flow Strategy later this month. You determined you want speed and power early and infield if possible. You look at your 3B list ( I assume players only qualify for the position they will play):
David Wright
Aramis Ramirez
Chone Figgins
Edwin Encarnacion
Melvin Mora

You know David Wright is out there and he is speed and power. You check over your other lists and clearly he is the correct choice. Draft David Wright and cross him off your list. Its that simple. Now, let's skip to the 5th round. Your first four picks were 3B, 2B, OF, OF. You pick is up. Lots of players are gone, but your lists are still intact. You check your information, your flow strategy, which was get infield early plus speed and power. You then check the ADP and see guys that are going off the board at this time in the draft. Then you spot your pick looking at you 1B list.
Mark Texeria
Kevin Youkilis
Chris Davis
Joey Votto
Mike Jacobs

There is your pick. In the 5th round you get Chris Davis. This strategy won't make you the best overall draft master, but it will give you an advantage to creating your dream team. In every position there are countless player combinations that can win. If you trust your theories and research then use it along with your pick list to have a great draft. Don't be the guy that makes a critical draft mistake because 60 seconds wasn't long enough to research the best players in every position. Cut that work down into 8 lists and I promise time will be on your side. If you have any questions about draft strategy, email me at toodf@fantasybaseballsearch.com.


http://www.blogtalkradio.com/the_true_guru

posted by The True GURU at 3:34 PM 0 Comments

Saturday, February 14, 2009

What does 5 x 5 mean

Here is what the 5 x 5 mean for fantasy baseball. When you are browsing the league settings you will be looking for something that looks like this. There are 5 categories for hitting and 5 for pitching

R, HR, RBI, SB, AVG,

W, SV, K, ERA, WHIP



Those are the standard 10 categories that make up fantasy baseball. Points are scored in each category when your player succeeds to score in any of them. In the rotisserie leagues the manager who scores the most points in each category will receive a point to his season total.



Here are the 5 categories for hitting.

R = RUNS scored by your player meaning each time he crosses home plate to score a run.

HR = HOME RUNS.

RBI = RUNS BATTED IN means anytime your player gets a hit and a teammate crosses home plate to score a run.

SB - STOLEN BASE is when your player advances from one plate to the next without a hit being made or another player forcing him to advance to the next base..

AVG = is the players batting AVERAGE for each time he takes a turn at bat.



Here is the 5 categories for the pitchers.

W = a pitcher is awarded a WIN when he has allowed less runs the the opposing pitcher in the innings pitched and his team holds onto the lead to win.

SV = the pitcher is awarded a SAVE if he finishes the game as the pitcher when his team is winning and they continue to win the game.

K = you are awarded a point each time your pitcher STRIKES OUT the batter.

ERA = EARNED RUNS AVERAGE is the average of players that cross home plate thanks to the pitcher not being able to strike him out or force him to hit into a play to put him out at first.

WHIP =



Now you will find leagues with 7 x 7 or even 10 x 10. Each category will score different so it is important to make sure you know what each means and how they score. Don't be intimidated by these leagues they aren't only for experts, in fact you will find that most experts will play the 5 x 5 as it is the true fantasy sport.

posted by Aj-Paul Pelletier: The Other True Guru at 3:53 PM 0 Comments

Friday, February 13, 2009

Estasblishing What Moves Work and Don't

When you are looking over all the trades and free agent signing you must remember a few things. One thing is that some teams spend lots of money on stacking a roster and then they can't pull it all together. Lets look at last years Detroit Tigers. They made the most moves of any team with the biggest names available via trades and free agency. What they ended up with is a high payroll and pretty much out of the pennant race before the 20th game of the year. they had a few runs of wins, but their losing streaks left them too far behind in a competitive American League Central. They finished last in the division with a .457 record.

So that brings me to the New York Yankees. They have done bought a pitching staff which was needed badly. Will it make the difference. Probably, but to what extent.

The importance of what i am trying to advice you about is that you shouldn't always draft an average player because he has moved into a better situation or team. Sometimes it can slow down his production because it is shared with other great players.

So when should you draft a player who has been moved? In his appropriate round once weighing his past production vs his future projected output. so before going into your draft look over all the moves made with all teams and check each players past fantasy output with what his future might hold with his new team and what he means to that team. for instance, AJ Burnett was THE MAN in Toronto and now that he is only 2nd in New York behind CC Sabathia he might not feel the urgency to get a win every night or might he not feel as much pressure and pitch even better? that is what some research or a gut feeling might help you answer.

All in all there is no proven why to say what a player in a new setting will contribute to fantasy, but always make sure you know what his importance to the new roster is.

posted by Aj-Paul Pelletier: The Other True Guru at 6:37 PM 0 Comments

Monday, February 9, 2009

Is A-Rod still a 1st overall Pick

Let's list everything A-Rod has gone through in the last few months.

a. Divorce/affair
b. Joe Torre's A-Fraud claim
c. Steroid Usage

Let's start with some stats

In his 15 year career, where he has only been a starter for 13 he has played 2042 games,has gone to the plate 7860 and has a stunning 2404 hits and 553 home runs. At 33 years old he probably has at least another 10 years of baseball ahead of him where if he only averages 30 homers a year (which is a low estimate) he would have close to 800 homers smashing the career homer record. His career average of .306 and on base percentage of .389 makes him a threat to get on base every time he steps up to the plate, but then lets not forget his 283 stolen bases once he has gotten on base.

Now the reason I am mentioning all his stats is because i have previously mentioned that you should look for players who can be valuable in as many categories as possible and A-Rod is the leader of the pack when it comes to a guy who is consistent and is close to the top in all categories. if i was to knock A-Rod for anything it is his lack of leadership in October. This is where he disappears including his MVP and World Series years. I will compare him to Ladianian Tomlinson of the San Diego Chargers for those of you that are Novice Fantasy Baseball players but know football well.

That is the past, now A-Rod has all kind of new pressures to deal with (refer to the top of this blog). The divorce is pretty much behind him and thanks to the steroid issue, A-Fraud is almost forgotten. Now people are trying to paint a negative light on A-Rod for doing something the WASN'T against the rules of the league back then. I admire him more especially for admitting straight up to using. The truth is he volunteered to the drug testing as the league promised all players that the results would NEVER be released. It has now been determined that 104 players tested positive for usage of one substance or another. So why is A-Rod the only one mentioned when he is the STAR of the league? Jealousy from either one organization or player. Worse yet the league is NOT going to reveal the other 103 names. I agree with Curt Schilling's blog called 38 PITCHES where he says and i quote "I’d be all for the 104 positives being named, and the game moving on if that is at all possible. In my opinion, if you don’t do that, then the other 600-700 players are going to be guilty by association, forever."

Now back to the question "Is A-Rod still worth the 1st pick overall in your draft? That is a tough one to answer with all this pressure on him and him not coming through in the pressures of October. But if I got the first pick i would take him for the simple fact that he is a consistent contributor to all categories during the regular season which is where we have to concentrate our thoughts of which players to take. Let's not forget that it is still possible that he comes out with a chip on his shoulder and has the best year of his career to prove to everyone that he has it with or without steroids, which if you look at his numbers since being off them you will see that his career stats haven't suffered since stopping using them.

Cheers All

posted by Aj-Paul Pelletier: The Other True Guru at 5:17 PM 0 Comments

Wednesday, February 4, 2009

Preparing for Draft Day part 2

Now that you have looked over the rules of your league and studied the point system, you must read and study what the 5x5 or the 7x7 means. Some of them can be very tricky AND most importantly you have to remember that you will never win them all so you must look into which pitchers score high in the most categories. Just because a pitcher gets lots of wins doesn't mean that he will score high in the majority of the scoring fields. Some relief pitchers in some leagues will prove to be more valuable. So when you begin to put together a solid pitching staff don't get carried away on wins and remember you will find a few gems in the free agent market which will prove to be fantastic add ons to your roster. As for batting you will need players that can score high in at least three categories and a few that are specialists in only one or two. These players will keep you competitive every week while the steady players will help you go over the top on their hot weeks.

Now go get some studying in, next i will explain how i find players who are valuable in more than 2 fields.

posted by Aj-Paul Pelletier: The Other True Guru at 3:52 PM 0 Comments

 

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