Giving Todd Some Props

Todd, I think you are under a misunderstanding about what I think of your team. I agree that you have done a great job managing your team and deserve your current standing. I don't think you have been "lucky," only that the results have to be separated from the strategy and the decision making process.

I think you have done a good job in your decision making process, and therefore deserve your good results. But my point is that even if you were doing poorly that wouldn't impugn your strategy; it would only mean that you were on the wrong side of the randomness factor in the short term.

So keep that in mind! I am not impugning your skills or your strategy. I just wanted to point out that even if you were in last that wouldn't change my opinion.

So let's end this discussion of "luck." As we discussed on the show last week, (shameless plug--every Sunday at 7 PM on Blog Talk Radio) you just have to tip your hat and take your lumps when things go south. So a tip of the hat to you (and Tim for that matter). Though I will admit that I want to hang myself every Monday after each hammering, it is part of the game. So kudos to you and your performance so far.

That is what comes with the territory in the league. We can only hope that the results even out over time. For now though it is time to lick our wounds and pick up the corpses of the Generals’ team as they are strewn across the fantasy battlefield.

There is nothing worse than waking up on Monday to a big fat zero in points, but hopefully the tide will reverse soon. For now we are staying the course; ignoring the results and counting on the fact that the decision making process was correct and will win out in the long run.
Of course; the fact that we are losing again 8-2 this week has to give one pause….

We cannot control the results, only the decisions we make. And yours were better than mine last week for sure, so my hammering was deserved. Next time the tide will turn!

The Wakefield Mistake

I just now realized why you guys were ragging on me about starting Tim Wakefield last Sunday. Up until this point I thought we were making a big deal out of it to patronize Rob, kind of how the crowd goes nuts when the lousy kid on the Little League team finally reaches base via a dropped third strike.

Now I can see that I had all the pitching categories locked up heading into Sunday, and starting Wake was all risk, no reward. In a vacuum it was a good spot start but under the circumstances it was really dumb.

You guys may not have realized how often I have done stuff like this in this league. There is a laundry list of mistakes. I've started guys I shouldn't have, and I've accidentally sat my aces a few times.

The big to-do about Wakefield kind of woke me up. Now I am going to pay special attention to Sunday strategy. In the past I pretty much just set my lineups as normal. I can be kind of a slow learner. Anyway, thanks for alerting me to this lapse in strategy! If nothing had been said I would've kept doing it. I'm not an expert - just a guy with a website who's in a lot of leagues and enjoys it a little too much.

There is no crying in H2H Guys

"This is why traditional roto is a far better format" - Generals

Man you guys won't stop crying about it being H2H.

I think the head to head league is clearly showing how the better "fantasy managers" are this season, and not just who can assemble the best team and get the luckiest with play and injuires. All debate this point till the cows come home.

Here are some tidbits:

Tim (Roto Authority) should have beaten Rob last week and turned 2 wins into losses by starting Wakefield when he didn't need too. That was poor management on his part, but that won't reflect in traditional roto.

What is even more disturbing is you guys are actually comparing the results of this league to ROTO when no one is playing it like a roto league!!!!

Think about it. I have a feeling all the managers would have played differently and the roto results you see wouldn't be the same as they are now.

Also Patrick, you are looking solid in 5th place with 74 points, but it primarly your offense holding you up with 43 point and your pitching is not there with 31. If this had been a traditional roto league I think you would have draft differently and your score would be different.

Can we please stop trying to compare it traditional roto. I'm sorry that I'm doing so well Patrick. Either way my team would be smoking right now, and if this was traditional it would be much better cause I wouldn't have thrown all those junk pitchers who killed my second to last place ERA.

TTG

I cannot catch a break this week against Roto Authority

I'm going head to head against one of the best and on Thursday I have three guys sitting on the bench and Hanley gets rained out. That is good!

TTG

Traditional Roto Standings

Very interesting results here:

Standard Roto Scoring System Update through week 6
Roto Authority
96
Mock Draft Central
79
Fantasy Baseball Geeks
78
Fantasy Baseball Search
75
Fantasy Baseball Mafia
75
Fantasy Baseball Generals
74
Baseball Geeks
71
RotoDoc.com
62
Junkyard Jake
59
Pro Fantasy Games
54
Melnick and Greco
48
Fantasy Fanatics
40

1. The stats really confirm that Roto Authority has been the best team to date, even though based on standings they are not.
2. I am shocked at my performance, especially given that we punted Ws and Ks. This is why traditional roto is a far better format IMHO.
3. Baseball Geeks have gotten the fuzzy end of the lollipop in scheduling. This week was the first time they won a week and yet they are clearly competitive.
4. Fantasy Baseball Geeks and Fantasy Baseball Search looked equal coming into the season and they are pretty much living up to that. Based on their record FBS will likely come back to the pack a bit. Should be a hell of a race!
5. Melnick and Greco need a panacea. They get it this week.....

Some Famous Defeats

History is littered with the corpses of men who yearned for greatness. Much like the tale of Icarus and Daedalus, one can easily come to defeat when victory is expected. There have been some great historical defeats that changed the course of history:

Napoleon's defeat of the Prussians at Jena

Hannibal routing the Romans at Cannae

The U.S. getting trapped by Rommel at Kasserine Pass

Ben Affleck in Gigli

The stage version of Deliverance featuring Todd Farino and RC Rizza

The Generals getting trounced by Fantasy Baseball Search.

Of all of these defeats certainly the last is the most surprising and the most destructive. Indeed the battlefield was strewn with the corpses of once proud Generals, beaten and bloodied beyond recognition by the (p)lucky minions of Fantasy Baseball Search. Taking advantage of a circumstance, the Fantasy Baseball Search team, like vultures, swooped in at just the right time.

After some trying battles against the best teams in the league, and performing admirably under tough conditions, the Generals were ripe for the slaughter. After three straight weeks where the Generals could have been 8-2 or 7-3 and instead got routed because of matchups, the Generals were ready to be plucked, as regression from the lofty heights of a proud offense was a certainty. It was only a question of when.

Star second baseman Chase Utley said "we can only take so much defeat. We tried our best and lost. How many damn hits can I get?" These thoughts were echoed by the last words of Rafael Betancourt, who lay on his death bed; defeated by yet another damn home run by Kevin Youkilis, so summed it all up so eloquently: "WTF do we have to do to get a win around here?"

Week three 11 HR 38 RBI 4 saves and a .327 BA.

Week four 11 HR 44 RBI 5 saves, 2.67 ERA and 1.19 WHIP

Week five 8 HR 35 RBI 5 saves 4 SB.

And nary a win.

Rob Reed's funeral dirge for C.C. Sabathia could nigh well be repeated. Carl Crawford, Generals centerfielder, said "The greatest test of courage on earth is to bear defeat without losing heart."

His feelings were echoed by Aramis Ramirez, who after the last defeat committed seppuku on his favorite bat. Aramis inscribed on his tombstone: "Slump? I ain't in no slump. I just ain't hitting."

There is nothing so bad as the taste of whiskey and sour defeat on Monday mornings. I drag myself through the day like a zombie, wearing a rumpled suit, muttering under my breath about The Greek God of Walks and smelling of cheap hooch. Man, head to head leagues are a hideous bitch goddess.

I heart the two Tims

And then a [Wakefield] comes along
With the [knuckleball] to [tarry] on
And [Dierkes casts his] [whip] aside
And [Rob learns he] can survive
So when [Rob] feels like hope is gone
(He) Looks [at Wakefield] and [is] strong
And [he] finally [sees] the truth
That a hero lies in [Minnesota]
-Mariah Carey
I don't really have much to say, other than that I have absorbed some valuable things this weekend.

(1) Punt strikeouts with those teams that are loaded with starting pitching and/or who play pitch and ditch, and keep the pressure on with relievers to keep your ERA and WHIP competitive. The Generals' strategy CAN work.

(2) When you bite your nails watching the results on Sunday, don't leave the remnants on the living room coffee table or your wife won't talk to you for days. This is especially true when that Sunday happens to be a day set aside for her and other mothers.

(3) Tim Wakefield adds himself to my list of favorite 2008 experts league goats, joining Braden Looper.

(4) Stop blogging about how close the head to head competition is as the weekend comes. It is bad luck. Leave the blogging to Monday or Tuesday, where you can create a clever GIF image and gloat about the win.

(5) I owe Tim Dierkes a big, sloppy, wet kiss. Above the belt only, however.

FBSEL Report For Week 6

Read about all the expert moves and how their teams played. It was a great week of match ups.

Expert League Weekly Report Vol.1 Issue 5

The True GURU

The General Has Been Demoted to Lt. Col

Wow, was this another great week for The True Guru. Another dominating win over a East Coast adversary. My good friend and co-host Patrick was the victim. I was nice on the show, but this board is for the fun and some trash talking, so I get to gloat at least for this week! ;)

9-0-1! Come on Patrick, you have to admit that your bullpen strategy has failed, and will not recover and "even out" over the rest of the season. I think 6 weeks is a good sampling and if you were 30-30 I'd say give it another shot, but you are 16 games under .500 and in last place in your division.

The reason you are demoted until further notice is your plan, though brilliant, has majors flaws and can easily be flanked. The first flaw is when you pitch such few innings, every run and hit hurts allot more then if you settled in with 50+ innings.

If you get popped say 2-3 times out of 20 innings its going to hurt and you will lose. This week you were popped at least 3 times and finished with a 6.40 ERA !

Secondly, you failed to recognize that your opponents can match you inning for inning and with a little good fortune pick up middle relievers and outperform you.

Come on Pat, it will happen more times this season, you know it will!

As for my strategy I hand picked my starts based on match ups and got the success I expected, and my three closers performed awesome. Once I commanded wins and strikeouts I didn't need to pitch anyone except closers, so I benched them. Think about it, brilliant.

Then there is offense, which you drafted a bunch of great players, but no SP's. Sorry, but there are 4 areas to a team, starting pitching, bullpen, offense, and bench. You are getting screwed on 1/4 the battle going into any match and giving up 20% of the possible categories. You can't do that just because you drafted a good offense early.

Many offensive guys bust, so you put too much dependency on your bullpen to hold the team together and while you spent the mass majority of your 11th round+ picks grabbing pitchers, I spent that time getting sleepers and a deep bench like Kelly Johnson, Youkilis and Willingham. So that is why I shut you out this weak. It wasn't luck at all, you were out-played and out maneuvered my friend, by The True GURU.

And just to note, if this were a standard ROTO league I'd have you after week six 6-3-1.

Answer that one Lt. Col.

Strategy On Strategy: Generals Vs Team Juggernaut

We are 4 days into our 1-on-1 match up and so far its all Fantasy Baseball Search 8-2. Team Juggernaut has been steam rolling The Generals with a 5-0 hold on offensive categories and winning pitching 3-2 losing saves and WHIP. All the pitching categories are close except wins, which The True GURU has clinched, but nothing else is a clinch and I have a feeling that our match up will go down to the wire. Here it what separates us going into the weekend swing,

Avg. FBG .225 to FBS .330 - This one is a near clinch for The True GURU.

Home Runs - FBG 5, FBS 7 - Still very tight. Hey Greco, Youkilis has 4.

RBI FBG 17, FBS 21 - Way too close.

RUNS - FBG17, FBS 22. I have breathing room, but not close to being over.

Stolen bases - FBG 1, FBS 4. If I have a 3+ stolen base lead going into Saturday consider this one in the bag.

Strikeouts FBG 12, FBS 15. Very close, but I have several starts including Sabathia and Harden, so its over in my book.

ERA FBG 2.84, FBS 1.98. Solid lead in a category The General should win. This category cannot be called until late Sunday.

WHIP FBG .79, FBS .93. How insane is that for WHIP!

Wins FBG 0, FBS 4. Its over.

Saves, FBG 5, FBS 3. I have a chance here, but I will concede this category to The General.


The True GURU's predictions are

BEST CASE SCENARIO 7-3 over the General. I think he will take Saves, WHIP, and one other category.

WORST CASE SCENARIO 5-5 FBS will win Wins, Strikeouts, Stolen bases, average, and runs.

Either way I'm happy with the finish. Patrick won't be!

TTG