Power Rankings Week 7: FBSEL GURU Style!

There is a new #1 this week. I guess the baseball Gods don't like automatic pitcher streaming!

1. Fantasy Baseball Search - Best record in the league and best record Vs. Experts.

2. Roto Authority - He was dethroned this week, but still has top overall numbers.

3. Fantasy Baseball Geeks - Sean's team is hot and rising fast. Tied in second place Vs. experts.

4. Mock Draft Central - Holding strong with a well balanced team at #4.

5. Fantasy Baseball Mafia - Losing steam and got shutout last week.

6. Pro Fantasy Games - Being Mr. Speedy Gonzalez on the free agency tap has awarded him #6.

7. Melnick & Greco - These guys have come to life and are winning big.

8. Rotodoc.com - Troy's boys have been in a slump the last few weeks and he's dropped big to #8.

9. Baseball Geeks - You want to know luck? Has the worst record in the league, but has a power ranking of #9. That is bad luck.

10. Fantasy Baseball Generals - Hey, he won this week!

11. Junkyard Jake - He's been coming on strong, but ran into a roadblock this week called Fantasy Baseball Search.

12. Fantasy Fanatics - He's doing well, but has a big hole to dig out of.

Who Cut Carlos Pena?????

Did Lt Col. DiCaprio actually cut Carlos Pena? Wow Patrick, that is a move requiring some explanation. You certainly could have traded him. Several of us didn't even think you wanted him. I would have given you some solid players for him. Instead the human free agency sucking machine over at Pro Fantasy Games got him. Thanks for powering him up for a Opprotunity Cost of zero! You are now Major DiCaprio. Keep it up good buddy.

The True GURU.

Junkyard Jake Vs Fantasy Baseball Search

Dear RC,
You are my BFF, but for this week I will not be speaking with my opponent. I will walk around my house naked until I win again. My wife isn't happy about it, and my 4 year old son is already embarrassed of me. I will prevail, but understand I'm ignoring you only because on our match up. Good luck and God Speed.

Wait, I take both of those back. Bad Luck and God Slow.

Todd

The Clash of the Titans

With all of the craziness and gnashing of teeth that has gone on in the last two weeks in the league, I thought it would be good to get back to why we started this whole blog. To make fun of Rob Reed each other.


As fate would have it, the whole world is watching the titanic clash between the twin behemoths of Baseball Geeks and The Fantasy Baseball Generals. Not because it is a great matchup. Everyone wants to see if TFBG can get swamped again and go three straight weeks without a win. Another resounding defeat and we will have to change our team name from The Generals to The Cleveland Spiders.


So what is in store this week? With another loss, the Generals clubhouse will become even more morose, as even Farino's dating record in college will far outshine our performance. And believe me that is pretty bad. It may come to hiring a psychologist, a la the New York Knights in The Natural.


It is my sad duty to report that during a social discussion with Geoff Stein, he recalled having sand kicked in his face on the beach via a big hulking guy whose name rhymes with Saul Bleco, getting sand in Geoff's horn-rimmed glasses and his Texas Instruments sliderule. In my mind this makes him an honorary "geek" much like his brethren in Rob Reed and Sean Sultaire, both of whom proclaim their baseball geekdom to the world. Indeed the picture in Geoff's profile on the Expert League Bios page shows him at his computer desk, no doubt playing World of Warcraft and doing his best impersonation of Comic Book Guy from the Simpsons. Todd assures me that is a 100% accurate pic of Geoff.


Rob Reed has told me point blank that he hopes to strike a chord of revenge for Geoff, Sean and all the other geeks in the world by putting a smackdown on the Generals this week. The Generals have fired all their bullets, and our pitiful bullpen is only equipped for a slapfight. If there is one pretty picture to get into your head, it is picturing a slapfight between me and Rob Reed. Wearing sumo thongs.


So if you are interested in the titanic slapfight between the two worst teams to date in the league, this week is your week. The Generals' once vaunted high hopes have been dashed, much like RC Rizza's once lofty aspirations of becoming a Knicks City Dancer and meeting Isiah Thomas. The RotoAuthority team is so far ahead of us that we cannot even see them. Evan Dickens, no doubt humbled by only winning 6 points against us, was forced to quit the Fantasy Baseball Mafia Wiretap show, as Tony Cincotta told him he would sleep with the fishes if that happened again. Not that he would be whacked, but that he would be forced to pull a Troy McClure, thereby being banned from Sea World.


When my beloved Cleveland Spiders get whipped again you will know where to find me. Even the Geeks of the world will have their week and what better elixir for a last place team than to face a team whose best starter is Joe Blanton. If only there were a RotoDoc in the house.

Giving Todd Some Props

Todd, I think you are under a misunderstanding about what I think of your team. I agree that you have done a great job managing your team and deserve your current standing. I don't think you have been "lucky," only that the results have to be separated from the strategy and the decision making process.

I think you have done a good job in your decision making process, and therefore deserve your good results. But my point is that even if you were doing poorly that wouldn't impugn your strategy; it would only mean that you were on the wrong side of the randomness factor in the short term.

So keep that in mind! I am not impugning your skills or your strategy. I just wanted to point out that even if you were in last that wouldn't change my opinion.

So let's end this discussion of "luck." As we discussed on the show last week, (shameless plug--every Sunday at 7 PM on Blog Talk Radio) you just have to tip your hat and take your lumps when things go south. So a tip of the hat to you (and Tim for that matter). Though I will admit that I want to hang myself every Monday after each hammering, it is part of the game. So kudos to you and your performance so far.

That is what comes with the territory in the league. We can only hope that the results even out over time. For now though it is time to lick our wounds and pick up the corpses of the Generals’ team as they are strewn across the fantasy battlefield.

There is nothing worse than waking up on Monday to a big fat zero in points, but hopefully the tide will reverse soon. For now we are staying the course; ignoring the results and counting on the fact that the decision making process was correct and will win out in the long run.
Of course; the fact that we are losing again 8-2 this week has to give one pause….

We cannot control the results, only the decisions we make. And yours were better than mine last week for sure, so my hammering was deserved. Next time the tide will turn!

The Wakefield Mistake

I just now realized why you guys were ragging on me about starting Tim Wakefield last Sunday. Up until this point I thought we were making a big deal out of it to patronize Rob, kind of how the crowd goes nuts when the lousy kid on the Little League team finally reaches base via a dropped third strike.

Now I can see that I had all the pitching categories locked up heading into Sunday, and starting Wake was all risk, no reward. In a vacuum it was a good spot start but under the circumstances it was really dumb.

You guys may not have realized how often I have done stuff like this in this league. There is a laundry list of mistakes. I've started guys I shouldn't have, and I've accidentally sat my aces a few times.

The big to-do about Wakefield kind of woke me up. Now I am going to pay special attention to Sunday strategy. In the past I pretty much just set my lineups as normal. I can be kind of a slow learner. Anyway, thanks for alerting me to this lapse in strategy! If nothing had been said I would've kept doing it. I'm not an expert - just a guy with a website who's in a lot of leagues and enjoys it a little too much.

There is no crying in H2H Guys

"This is why traditional roto is a far better format" - Generals

Man you guys won't stop crying about it being H2H.

I think the head to head league is clearly showing how the better "fantasy managers" are this season, and not just who can assemble the best team and get the luckiest with play and injuires. All debate this point till the cows come home.

Here are some tidbits:

Tim (Roto Authority) should have beaten Rob last week and turned 2 wins into losses by starting Wakefield when he didn't need too. That was poor management on his part, but that won't reflect in traditional roto.

What is even more disturbing is you guys are actually comparing the results of this league to ROTO when no one is playing it like a roto league!!!!

Think about it. I have a feeling all the managers would have played differently and the roto results you see wouldn't be the same as they are now.

Also Patrick, you are looking solid in 5th place with 74 points, but it primarly your offense holding you up with 43 point and your pitching is not there with 31. If this had been a traditional roto league I think you would have draft differently and your score would be different.

Can we please stop trying to compare it traditional roto. I'm sorry that I'm doing so well Patrick. Either way my team would be smoking right now, and if this was traditional it would be much better cause I wouldn't have thrown all those junk pitchers who killed my second to last place ERA.

TTG

I cannot catch a break this week against Roto Authority

I'm going head to head against one of the best and on Thursday I have three guys sitting on the bench and Hanley gets rained out. That is good!

TTG

Traditional Roto Standings

Very interesting results here:

Standard Roto Scoring System Update through week 6
Roto Authority
96
Mock Draft Central
79
Fantasy Baseball Geeks
78
Fantasy Baseball Search
75
Fantasy Baseball Mafia
75
Fantasy Baseball Generals
74
Baseball Geeks
71
RotoDoc.com
62
Junkyard Jake
59
Pro Fantasy Games
54
Melnick and Greco
48
Fantasy Fanatics
40

1. The stats really confirm that Roto Authority has been the best team to date, even though based on standings they are not.
2. I am shocked at my performance, especially given that we punted Ws and Ks. This is why traditional roto is a far better format IMHO.
3. Baseball Geeks have gotten the fuzzy end of the lollipop in scheduling. This week was the first time they won a week and yet they are clearly competitive.
4. Fantasy Baseball Geeks and Fantasy Baseball Search looked equal coming into the season and they are pretty much living up to that. Based on their record FBS will likely come back to the pack a bit. Should be a hell of a race!
5. Melnick and Greco need a panacea. They get it this week.....

Some Famous Defeats

History is littered with the corpses of men who yearned for greatness. Much like the tale of Icarus and Daedalus, one can easily come to defeat when victory is expected. There have been some great historical defeats that changed the course of history:

Napoleon's defeat of the Prussians at Jena

Hannibal routing the Romans at Cannae

The U.S. getting trapped by Rommel at Kasserine Pass

Ben Affleck in Gigli

The stage version of Deliverance featuring Todd Farino and RC Rizza

The Generals getting trounced by Fantasy Baseball Search.

Of all of these defeats certainly the last is the most surprising and the most destructive. Indeed the battlefield was strewn with the corpses of once proud Generals, beaten and bloodied beyond recognition by the (p)lucky minions of Fantasy Baseball Search. Taking advantage of a circumstance, the Fantasy Baseball Search team, like vultures, swooped in at just the right time.

After some trying battles against the best teams in the league, and performing admirably under tough conditions, the Generals were ripe for the slaughter. After three straight weeks where the Generals could have been 8-2 or 7-3 and instead got routed because of matchups, the Generals were ready to be plucked, as regression from the lofty heights of a proud offense was a certainty. It was only a question of when.

Star second baseman Chase Utley said "we can only take so much defeat. We tried our best and lost. How many damn hits can I get?" These thoughts were echoed by the last words of Rafael Betancourt, who lay on his death bed; defeated by yet another damn home run by Kevin Youkilis, so summed it all up so eloquently: "WTF do we have to do to get a win around here?"

Week three 11 HR 38 RBI 4 saves and a .327 BA.

Week four 11 HR 44 RBI 5 saves, 2.67 ERA and 1.19 WHIP

Week five 8 HR 35 RBI 5 saves 4 SB.

And nary a win.

Rob Reed's funeral dirge for C.C. Sabathia could nigh well be repeated. Carl Crawford, Generals centerfielder, said "The greatest test of courage on earth is to bear defeat without losing heart."

His feelings were echoed by Aramis Ramirez, who after the last defeat committed seppuku on his favorite bat. Aramis inscribed on his tombstone: "Slump? I ain't in no slump. I just ain't hitting."

There is nothing so bad as the taste of whiskey and sour defeat on Monday mornings. I drag myself through the day like a zombie, wearing a rumpled suit, muttering under my breath about The Greek God of Walks and smelling of cheap hooch. Man, head to head leagues are a hideous bitch goddess.

I heart the two Tims

And then a [Wakefield] comes along
With the [knuckleball] to [tarry] on
And [Dierkes casts his] [whip] aside
And [Rob learns he] can survive
So when [Rob] feels like hope is gone
(He) Looks [at Wakefield] and [is] strong
And [he] finally [sees] the truth
That a hero lies in [Minnesota]
-Mariah Carey
I don't really have much to say, other than that I have absorbed some valuable things this weekend.

(1) Punt strikeouts with those teams that are loaded with starting pitching and/or who play pitch and ditch, and keep the pressure on with relievers to keep your ERA and WHIP competitive. The Generals' strategy CAN work.

(2) When you bite your nails watching the results on Sunday, don't leave the remnants on the living room coffee table or your wife won't talk to you for days. This is especially true when that Sunday happens to be a day set aside for her and other mothers.

(3) Tim Wakefield adds himself to my list of favorite 2008 experts league goats, joining Braden Looper.

(4) Stop blogging about how close the head to head competition is as the weekend comes. It is bad luck. Leave the blogging to Monday or Tuesday, where you can create a clever GIF image and gloat about the win.

(5) I owe Tim Dierkes a big, sloppy, wet kiss. Above the belt only, however.

FBSEL Report For Week 6

Read about all the expert moves and how their teams played. It was a great week of match ups.

Expert League Weekly Report Vol.1 Issue 5

The True GURU

The General Has Been Demoted to Lt. Col

Wow, was this another great week for The True Guru. Another dominating win over a East Coast adversary. My good friend and co-host Patrick was the victim. I was nice on the show, but this board is for the fun and some trash talking, so I get to gloat at least for this week! ;)

9-0-1! Come on Patrick, you have to admit that your bullpen strategy has failed, and will not recover and "even out" over the rest of the season. I think 6 weeks is a good sampling and if you were 30-30 I'd say give it another shot, but you are 16 games under .500 and in last place in your division.

The reason you are demoted until further notice is your plan, though brilliant, has majors flaws and can easily be flanked. The first flaw is when you pitch such few innings, every run and hit hurts allot more then if you settled in with 50+ innings.

If you get popped say 2-3 times out of 20 innings its going to hurt and you will lose. This week you were popped at least 3 times and finished with a 6.40 ERA !

Secondly, you failed to recognize that your opponents can match you inning for inning and with a little good fortune pick up middle relievers and outperform you.

Come on Pat, it will happen more times this season, you know it will!

As for my strategy I hand picked my starts based on match ups and got the success I expected, and my three closers performed awesome. Once I commanded wins and strikeouts I didn't need to pitch anyone except closers, so I benched them. Think about it, brilliant.

Then there is offense, which you drafted a bunch of great players, but no SP's. Sorry, but there are 4 areas to a team, starting pitching, bullpen, offense, and bench. You are getting screwed on 1/4 the battle going into any match and giving up 20% of the possible categories. You can't do that just because you drafted a good offense early.

Many offensive guys bust, so you put too much dependency on your bullpen to hold the team together and while you spent the mass majority of your 11th round+ picks grabbing pitchers, I spent that time getting sleepers and a deep bench like Kelly Johnson, Youkilis and Willingham. So that is why I shut you out this weak. It wasn't luck at all, you were out-played and out maneuvered my friend, by The True GURU.

And just to note, if this were a standard ROTO league I'd have you after week six 6-3-1.

Answer that one Lt. Col.

Strategy On Strategy: Generals Vs Team Juggernaut

We are 4 days into our 1-on-1 match up and so far its all Fantasy Baseball Search 8-2. Team Juggernaut has been steam rolling The Generals with a 5-0 hold on offensive categories and winning pitching 3-2 losing saves and WHIP. All the pitching categories are close except wins, which The True GURU has clinched, but nothing else is a clinch and I have a feeling that our match up will go down to the wire. Here it what separates us going into the weekend swing,

Avg. FBG .225 to FBS .330 - This one is a near clinch for The True GURU.

Home Runs - FBG 5, FBS 7 - Still very tight. Hey Greco, Youkilis has 4.

RBI FBG 17, FBS 21 - Way too close.

RUNS - FBG17, FBS 22. I have breathing room, but not close to being over.

Stolen bases - FBG 1, FBS 4. If I have a 3+ stolen base lead going into Saturday consider this one in the bag.

Strikeouts FBG 12, FBS 15. Very close, but I have several starts including Sabathia and Harden, so its over in my book.

ERA FBG 2.84, FBS 1.98. Solid lead in a category The General should win. This category cannot be called until late Sunday.

WHIP FBG .79, FBS .93. How insane is that for WHIP!

Wins FBG 0, FBS 4. Its over.

Saves, FBG 5, FBS 3. I have a chance here, but I will concede this category to The General.


The True GURU's predictions are

BEST CASE SCENARIO 7-3 over the General. I think he will take Saves, WHIP, and one other category.

WORST CASE SCENARIO 5-5 FBS will win Wins, Strikeouts, Stolen bases, average, and runs.

Either way I'm happy with the finish. Patrick won't be!

TTG

CORRECTED: Power Rankings: FBSEL GURU Style!

Here is the first official True GURU Power Rankings for The Fantasy Baseball Search Expert League

1. Roto Authortiy - Overall 31-11-8, H2H Expert 4-0-1 - His team is hot and still heating up.

2. Fantasy Baseball Search - Overall 31-16-3, H2H Expert 5-0 - Has the best record vs experts, and this underdog continues to stun good teams.

3. Mock Draft Central - Overall 27-21-2, H2H Expert 2-0-3 - His name should be "Pitching All Day, All The Time".

4. RotoDoc.com - Overall 25-23-2, H2H Expert 2-2-1 - His team is hot. He had a slow start, but is coming on strong.

5. Fantasy Baseball Geeks Overall 22-22-6, H2H Expert 3-2 - After a terrible start he's won the last 3 weeks with a combined record of 18-8-4. Very Hot.

6. Fantasy Baseball Mafia - Overall 24-25-1, H2H Expert 2-2-1 - This team is searching for an identity. He should be ranked much higher, but after the draft power ranking has fallen to #6.

7. Melnick & Greco - Overall 23-23-4, H2H Expert 1-2-2 - His team is under achieving right now, but has been in every match up and with a little more luck he would have allot more wins. Has notched 2 expert victories.

8. Junkyard Jake - Overall 20-28-2, H2H Expert 1-4 - RC started off horrible, but last week notched his first expert victory and over the past two weeks is 12-7-1 after having a 8-21-1 record over the first 3 weeks.

9. Pro Fantasy Games Overall 23-24-3, H2H Expert 1-2-2 - This team has been fading over the past three weeks, but has held its own with 23 wins. He's only lose two H2H match ups.

10. Fantasy Baseball Generals - Overall 19-26-5, H2H Expert 2-3 - One of the best teams in the league has had a major slump over the past two weeks. The future is not bright for this guy facing Fantasy Baseball Search in week 6.

11. Baseball Geeks - Overall 15-31-4, H2H Expert 0-4-1 - This team had bad luck, but is getting better each week. As Rob noted he's beating me 5-4-1 so the luck has to break at some point in his favor.

12 Fantasy Fanatics - Overall 18-28-4, H2H Expert 1-3-1 - This team hasn't been able to get any consistency and is basically be pile drived in many match ups. Dan is holding strong, and improvement should happen.





There you have, The True GURU's Power Rankings

Things aren't what they seem

I have asserted all season thus far that I have been the victim of bad luck. Every time I play a particular team (so far, just the division rivals), it seems that they put up extraordinary numbers, compared to their performances against other teams.

So, I decided to put some figures to the test. If this were not a head to head league, and we were merely playing straight roto, how would I fare against the first place team in my division, the True Guru (who also happens to be the second best team in the league, in terms of head to head standings right now).

Well, it turns out, I would beat the True Guru: 5-4-1.

	HR	RBI	SB	R	AVG	ERA	WHIP	W	SV	K
True_Guru	44	194	23	177	.289	4.96	1.50	19	22	185
The_Geek	44	175	31	182	.286	4.06	1.27	9	16	207

Feel free to correct the numbers, Mr. Farino. I hastily put this together, and I got excited when my calculations indicated that I actually have fared better overall than your team.

And, now, I am playing the clearly best team in the league in Tim Dierkes' RotoAuthority, so I suspect I'm gonna get slaughtered again.

So, now I end with one, simple conclusion. The Fantasy Gods want me to suffer. Perhaps, you can reference me as the coming Messiah in that fantasy bible of yours, Todd?

And, oh yah. A postscript.: Since I am not in the Guru power rankings, and he ranks himself as #2, does that make me #1.5?

Power Rankings: FBSEL GURU Style!

Here is the first official True GURU Power Rankings for The Fantasy Baseball Search Expert League

1. Roto Authortiy - Overall 31-11-8, H2H Expert 4-0-1 - His team is hot and still heating up.

2. Fantasy Baseball Search - Overall 31-16-3, H2H Expert 5-0 - Has the best record vs experts, and this underdog continues to stun good teams.

3. Mock Draft Central - Overall 27-21-2, H2H Expert 2-0-3 - His name should be "Pitching All Day, All The Time".

4. RotoDoc.com - Overall 25-23-2, H2H Expert 2-2-1 - His team is hot. He had a slow start, but is coming on strong.

5. Fantasy Baseball Geeks Overall 22-22-6, H2H Expert 3-2 - After a terrible start he's won the last 3 weeks with a combined record of 18-8-4. Very Hot.

6. Fantasy Baseball Mafia - Overall 24-25-1, H2H Expert 2-2-1 - This team is searching for an identity. He should be ranked much higher, but after the draft power ranking has fallen to #6.

7. Melnick & Greco - Overall 23-23-4, H2H Expert 1-2-2 - His team is under achieving right now, but has been in every match up and with a little more luck he would have allot more wins. Has notched 2 expert victories.

8. Junkyard Jake - Overall 20-28-2, H2H Expert 1-4 - RC started off horrible, but last week notched his first expert victory and over the past two weeks

9. Fantasy Baseball Generals - Overall 19-26-5, H2H Expert 2-3 - RC started off horrible, but last week notched his first expert victory and over the past two weeks is 12-7-1 after having a 8-21-1 record over the first 3 weeks.

10 Fantasy Fanatics - Overall 18-28-4, H2H Expert 1-3-1 - This team hasn't been able to get any consistency and is basically be pile drived in many match ups. Dan is holding strong, and improvement should happen.



There you have, The True GURU's Power Rankings

Greatest Comeback Since the 78' Yankees: Greco Vs. Farino

The True GURU 8

Pauli "The Shark" Greco 2





Well, after all the tough talk and player disagreements, The True GURU handed Pauli "The Shark" Greco another hard defeat this time via the Expert league in a 1-on-1 weekly match up. This was a particularly hard week for me to start because on both travel days I was only able to start 3-5 guys while Paul had a nearly full roster. Then I had rain outs and I lost a Fausto Carmona start. Finally I lost Josh Willingham to injury. With all that Paul Greco and his mastery of Fantasy Baseball should have taken me out big time and frankly as the weekend came he was up 5-2-3 and even went up for a short time on Saturday 6-2-2, but that was Saturday. Paul's inability to put me away cost him on Sunday and my fully loaded Team Juggernaut woke up out of its slump and hammered the ball. Not only that, but I picked up three pitchers, 2 for streaming and the other to keep. Aaron Cook and Todd Wellemeyer pitched outstanding ans Carlos Silva got cranked. The end result; I claimed 6 roto categories on his team in one day.



My strategy worked to perfection, and If I would have gotten just one stolen base from Beltran or Hanley Ramirez I would have gone 8-1-1. So the trash talk now; listen Paul fantasy baseball just isn't about finding or drafting great players, its 60% strategy and knowing who to start and when to start them. The player that hurt you badly this week was Kevin Youkilis a player I drafted in the 19th round that no expert has much respect for. Well, strategy dictated starting him and starting him at Fenway. That's the game I play and I win at. Good luck in our next meeting old friend. Maybe now you'll bring me back on your show to share some of my legitimate advice.



The True GURU

Monday blues

I looked like a genius when my pitch-and-ditch strategy proved successful, and I got wins from both Darrell Rasner and Andrew Miller (a guy who had screwed me in the recent past) yesterday.

Then, a fluke win from Brad Lidge put me over the line, even after Brad Hawpe stranded 5 runners... including a no-out, bases loaded situation against Derek Lowe in the first inning.

Still, all was looking good for me, and I was actually winning going into the early afternoon. Except that Jon Lester had to pitch one of the best games of his career. Reyes notched another SB. Felipe Lopez knocked in a late RBI. Santiago Casilla had to match Lidge's fluke win.

If Casilla doesn't get a fluke win. If Lopez goes 0-4, rather than hitting a late single with an RBI. If Reyes doesn't eek out that last SB late in the game. If Lester doesn't get that last strikeout. If Hawpe hit a SF in the first inning with the bases loaded and no outs, or Soto had an RBI in last night's game...

If those things happened, my 2-4-4 loss would have been a 6-4 victory.

I'm tired of living on IFs this season, so far.

The Case for Expertise

This has been a challenging week for The True GURU. Even though this post isn't going to give you any real fantasy advice, it's what I'm been thinking about this week and I thought I would share it with the readers.

I got a decent hammering for my opinions on closers this week. I think I went too far challenging what an expert is, and moreso trying to define whether someone is an expert. I talked to several of my colleagues in the industry this week and there were many points of view on the question of an expert. One industry expert said, "look at the credentials in writing or fantasy baseball job related experience." Another expert pointed out wins in big leagues like TOUT Wars and such. There were more supporting point of views for experts being able to look into numbers with sabermetrics and find answers just like Bill James and the Boston Red Sox did. Finally, there is the experts who have a history of making great picks whatever the method.


As a fantasy manager, I've used expert advice in the past as I'm sure we all have. Some of that advice has been great, some of it has been bad. When I was deciding on how I would do my radio show and blog, I wanted to figure out why that advice was bad and try to deliver advice that was more accurate to more league managers.


Let's face it, this discussion between experts on closer strategies has little relevance except in the mind of the expert himself if you aren't playing his game. Think about it for a moment. The expert will create his ideal fantasy baseball situation to apply his advice he offers and sell it to you from that POV. Say you took that advice not to take closers early in the draft and you were in a points league with an innings limit. That would probably be bad advice. Even an H2H 5x5 roto league with inning limits, it would probably be bad advice.


Hold on! What if it was a roto 5x5 league with no maximum on innings, it would probably be good advice. It's difficult, if not impossible, to give advice on those players that are impacted by league rules. We all know it doesn't matter what league you are in, some players are just golden.


I wanted to try and focus on a players potential in several league types (points, roto, H2H) and not just my own and try to lessen the chance bad advice simply on the variation in league rules. Try to combine several theories like Sabermetrics, statistics and others to give a more concrete decision. At least that's my goal.

In the end what really matters is not the fact that one is an amazing writer, a web site reporter/owner, win alot of leagues, or make great picks is the definition of an expert, though these are fine reasons to support a person's case.

What really matters is not whether your advice is good. What matters in the grand scheme is whether people listen to us, read us, and take our advice. If that advice is good and consistent, they will comeback and they will be the ones who consider us experts. It has nothing to do with whether I think I'm an expert or if I think Patrick DiCaprio is an expert. Its you (in this case, the reader). You determine if the advice we offer for your team in your league is the advice you want and need. It's you who decides if our overall philosophy matches yours. It's you that determines if our strategy for winning is a strategy you can and will use.


That is what its all about. So after this post you will hear nothing more about whether me or anyone else is an expert. I'll leave that up to you.


Todd "The True GURU" Farino

The Fantasy Baseball Gurus Show Sundays at 7pm EST on Blogtalk Radio.

Oh My God this week is weak! (Pun Intended)

I cannot like believe there's like 2 massive days off like this week.

Ok, enough with that.  I guess I'm sick of blown saves.  

Papelbon, no Calgone take me away!

I'm playing a tough rival and I've had like 16 at bats all week.  I go into the (Weekend Swing) (coined, it own, love it, don't copy it with out express written permission from The TRUE GURU)

So going into the weekend swing I'm down 4-5-1.  Paul is sweeping all offense categories and we are tied in wins.  

I got Sabathia on Friday, HEAR ME ROAR!

TTG

Oh-Dallas!

Dear Fantasy God:

Lord, have mercy on me. There was nothing in the free agent pool that I could get myself to click on except Odalis Perez to fill the gap left by Smoltz.

I mean, it is clear that Odalis has been praying to you. Hard. After a disastrous outing in his first start on April 4th, where he gave up 5 ER in 4 IP against the Cards, he has actually looked pretty damned dern good.

He has struck out 14 in his last 12 innings. And, he has only allowed 2 ER in that span.

So, Dear Fantasy Lord. Could you find it in your heart to give me one more quality start from Odalis? Clearly, you have had nothing to do with Pittsburgh since the early 90's. They are obviously doing some serious Sodom and Gomorrah stuff down there based on their last 16 or so years.

In the end, if this request does not please you and Odalis screws things up for my fantasy squad tonight, could you please have someone shoot him? We could use the ratings. It worked for J.R.

Oh, and lastly, as this move was done in desperation because of Smoltz' DL stint, could you please remove all texting privileges from Mr. Smoltz? I don't need him in the bullpen.

Yours sincerely,        
BaseballGeek        

In the battle of the BaseballGeeks (the original vs. the copycats), I'm down 4-5-1. The latest baseballgeeks podcast has been uploaded this morning where Rob gets unconventionally talked out of fantasy suicide.