Expert League Results Forecast

Just wanted to share my forecast of the expert league results. Of course, actual results may and will vary, so engage in reckless wagering at your own peril ! As you can see below, FantasyBaseballMafia is the predicted favorite, but if he gets implicated in the Eliot Spitzer hooker scandal (5% chance ?), then Fantasy Baseball Generals should eventually be crowned league champion. Of course, don't count the crafty Guru out, as he is certain to bolster his team by working the waiver wire, and there is an estimated 7% chance he may discover the next Lou Brock in 2008.

Here is the overall ranking summary, these numbers reflect the forecasted sum of rankings across the typical 5 pitching (Wins, Saves, K's, ERA, Whip) and 5 batting (Avg,HRs,RBI,Runs, SBs) categories:

		Batting	Pitching	Total
1	FantasyBaseballMafia	43	41	84
2	FantasyBaseballGenerals	45	38	83
3	FantasyBaseballGeeks	35	39	74
4	JunkyardJake	37	35	72
5	FantasyFanatics	32	36	68
6	MockDraftCentral	17	46	63
7	FantasyBaseballSearch	26	36	62
8	Rotodoc	26	35	61
9	BaseballGeeks	38	21	59
10	RotoAuthority	38	19	57
11	Melnick&Greco	32	19	51
12	StoneysLounge	21	25	46

Here are the detailed predictions, based on enough space-age statistical models that they could melt your face off (Of course face-melting and accuracy are two different things, which probably means Stoney wins, and I finish last, we will see):

							Ranks
		Avg	HR's	Runs	RBI's	SB's	Avg	HR's	Runs	RBI's	SB's	Total
1	StoneysLounge	0.2917	233	845	856	65	9	7	1	3	1	21
2	FantasyBaseballGeeks	0.2877	226	932	897	176	5	3	8	8	11	35
3	FantasyBaseballSearch	0.2874	237	915	873	113	4	8	4	6	4	26
4	RotoAuthority	0.2918	226	957	851	193	10	4	10	2	12	38
5	BaseballGeeks	0.2971	232	929	952	108	12	6	7	10	3	38
6	Melnick&Greco	0.2756	277	916	888	129	1	12	5	7	7	32
7	MockDraftCentral	0.2796	205	891	822	170	3	1	2	1	10	17
8	JunkyardJake	0.2934	213	960	868	151	11	2	11	5	8	37
9	FantasyBaseballGenerals	0.2904	245	963	994	119	7	9	12	12	5	45
10	FantasyFanatics	0.2777	268	919	978	80	2	11	6	11	2	32
11	Rotodoc	0.2909	230	914	865	121	8	5	3	4	6	26
12	FantasyBaseballMafia	0.2887	251	946	904	154	6	10	9	9	9	43
							Ranks
		Wins	Saves	K's	ERA	Whip	Wins	Saves	K's	ERA	Whip	Total
1	StoneysLounge	85	68	1054	3.5588	1.2525	7	4	7	3	4	25
2	FantasyBaseballGeeks	87	79	1142	3.5338	1.2563	10	9	11	6	3	39
3	FantasyBaseballSearch	94	68	1011	3.525	1.235	11	5	6	7	7	36
4	RotoAuthority	77	63	1073	3.7125	1.2638	4	3	8	2	2	19
5	BaseballGeeks	75	71	956	3.5375	1.2388	2	6	3	5	5	21
6	Melnick&Greco	82	60	1136	3.9238	1.3088	5	2	10	1	1	19
7	MockDraftCentral	85	82	1108	3.4863	1.2238	8	10	9	9	10	46
8	JunkyardJake	83	78	976	3.4386	1.2371	6	8	5	10	6	35
9	FantasyBaseballGenerals	63	132	858	3.385	1.195	1	12	1	12	12	38
10	FantasyFanatics	101	77	964	3.5375	1.2238	12	7	4	4	9	36
11	Rotodoc	75	104	951	3.5213	1.2125	3	11	2	8	11	35
12	FantasyBaseballMafia	87	49	1212	3.4175	1.2288	9	1	12	11	8	41

Hopefully the tables don't publish as a big jumbled mess., I think I found a cool trick to remove the huge spaces that Blogger so generously places in front of tables. If you have had the same problem, let me know.

Great Job on The Draft

Despite whatever discussion we had on the show on Sunday, I think we would all agree that the rankings are very subjective and that if we did them again in two weeks they could be very different, with the possible exception of RC who went by the numbers.

I think that there is probably no more than a 10% difference between the best and worst teams, so any outcome no matter what happens will not be surprising to me. Virtually every team has a chance to win. It is a testament to the great job everyone did, and the fact that the rankings on the show were so different also shows how slim the marginal differences are from team to team. Overall it was a great draft and everyone did a great job. Excpet for the Generals, who have no good starters.

Should be a great season!

Expert League Average Draft Grades From The Fantasy Baseball GURUS

Well guys I tried to get all my posts in before the show, but I ran out of time. I'll stop at 6 because you can now listen to the latest installment of the Fantasy Baseball GURUS radio show and listen to all the details of what I, Patrick DiCaprio, and RC thought of the expert draft.

Each one of us gave each player a ranking (1-12) based on their draft performance. I then averaged our three rankings and here are the final results of the show:

12. Stoney's Lounge - Average ranking 10.67 - Lowest expert ranking 9, highest 12.

11. Rotodoc - Average ranking 9.67 - Lowest expert ranking 8, highest 12.

10. Melnick and Greco Fantasy Sports - Average ranking 9 - Lowest expert ranking 5, highest 11.

9. Baseball Geeks - Average ranking 8.33 - Lowest expert ranking 6, highest 10.

8. Fantasy Fanatics - Average ranking 7.67 - Lowest expert ranking 5, highest 10.

7. Mock Draft Central - Average ranking 6.67 - Lowest expert ranking 2, highest 12.

6. Fantasy Baseball Search - Average ranking 6.67 - Lowest expert ranking 5, highest 8.

5. Roto Authority - Average ranking 5.67 - Lowest expert ranking 1, highest 10.

4. Fantasy Baseball Generals - Average ranking 5.33 - Lowest expert ranking 2, highest 7.

3. Junkyard Jake - Average ranking 4.67 - Lowest expert ranking 3, highest 7.

2. Fantasy Baseball Geeks - Average ranking 3.33 - Lowest expert ranking 3, highest 4.

1. Fantasy Baseball Mafia - Average ranking 2 - Lowest expert ranking 1, highest 4.

Good luck in the season guys!

Expert League Draft Grades : Junkyard Jake 6 of 11

Here is 6 of 11 draft grades handed out for 2008:


Junkyard Jake

RC pulled a tough pick at #8 and managed to pull probably the steal of the first round with Matt Holiday. An excellent grab at #8. He followed that pick up with Grady Sizemore and Nick Markakis in the third. Though that pick seems a little early, he quickly developed one of the best outfields in the expert league. He outfield is built of nearly all 5 tool players who will give him all the major offensive categories including average, home runs, stolen bases, runs, and RBI. To back up that stellar outfield he drafted Adam Jones, Juan Pierre, and Felix Pie. He depth isn't very strong, but he made not need it much with the sheer health and age of is starters.

His infield is obviously going to be a bit weaker without a player drafted till the 5th round when he selected the overrated Shortstop Derek Jeter. We consider Jeter a bust this year, but he is a solid pickup with pick 56 overall. His other infield starters include Carlos Delgado, Placido Polanco, Edwin Encarnacion, and Joe Mauer. His starting infield doesn't sound like much on paper, but has incredible potential with a healthy Delgado, and a breakout Edwin Encarnacion mixed in with the gritty All-Star veterans. He backs up his infield with a mixture of young and veteran stars like Connor Jackson, Stephen Drew, Jeff Kent, Scott Rolen, and Felipe Lopez. His infield isn't the scariest, but it blends in will with his powerhouse outfield. His key utility player is Billy Butler.

His starting pitching staff was drafted well, but may need help from free agency at some point. The crafty veteran point machines that he drafted were Ted Lilly, Andy Pettite, Carlos Zambrano, Brett Myers, and Tim Hudson. None of these names are scary, but they can all produce especially when you need it. Ted Lilly and Andy Pettite are risks and we are not high on them at all.

He drafted a solid bullpen led by J.J. Putz. His other closer is the resurgent Francisco Cordero, along with setup men Scott Linbrink, and Scott Shields. Putz and Cordero will get him allot of saves, but he's best to locate a third closer in free agency or a trade.

Overall, this is a well balanced outstanding team.



Projected average weekly scoring -
HR - 9
RBI - 10
RUN - 9
SB - 7
AVG - 8

W - 6
SO - 10
SV - 7
ERA - 4
WHIP - 4

TOTAL: 74

OVERALL DRAFT GRADE: A-

Up Next, Evan Dickens of Fantasy Baseball Mafia!

Expert League Draft Grades : Fantasy Baseball Geeks 5 of 11

Here is 5 of 11 draft grades handed out for 2008:



Fantasy Baseball Geeks

Sean Sultaire had a great pick at #2 and opened the draft with an outstanding pick in Jose Reyes and forced my hand with taking Hanley Ramirez. He followed up that pick with a balanced attack taking 2 outfielders Carlos Lee and BJ Upton with Upton qualifying at 2B/OF.

His infield is impressive with Adrain Gonzalez, BJ Upton, Jose Reyes, Garrett Atkins, and JR Towles. There are no real holes and a great mixture of power, speed, and average. Gonzalez and Atkins have some risk associated with them, but they should produce great for Sean's team regardless. Backing up his infield is a great assortment of veterans and young players like Casey Kotchman, Orlando Hudson, and Troy Glaus.

Over in the outfield he looks very strong as well with Carlos Lee, Delmon Young, Jeremy Hermida, Willy Mo Pena, Justin Upton, and don't forget BJ Upton should come into play as an outfielder. His depth in the outfield could be considered very week with allot of risky players like Justin Upton, Willy Mo Pena, and even Delmon Young. I figured he rolled the dice and filled his outfield with young players ready to break out, and he did a great job. We are very high on Hermida, and Willy Mo Pena will have a full season as a starter under his belt, so big things could happen. He has tremendous power and solid speed in his outfield, but average could take a dip. Overall, a nice outfield.

On the pitching front he will have some problems, drafted a class of starting pitchers that should hold up its own. He does lead his rotation with Oswalt, Bonderman and Wainwright three very solid starters, but then follows with Phil Hughes and Jon Lester. We are high on both these youngsters, but so far that is 4 risky pitchers and Bonderman. If Roy Oswalt performs like he did a few years ago he could have a very tough starting rotation. His depth is incredible at starting pitching with Yovani Gallardo, Randy Johnson, and Rich Hill to plug in as well. His bullpen is where he will have problems and weakness. He has only two closers, but very good ones in Billy Wagner and Francisco Rodriguez. After that its just Pat Neshek.

Projected average weekly scoring -
HR - 11
RBI - 9
RUN - 9
SB - 8
AVG - 6

W - 7
SO - 7
SV - 4
ERA - 4
WHIP - 4

Total Score: 69

OVERALL DRAFT GRADE: A-

Up Next, RC of Junkyard Jake!

Expert League Draft Grades : Melnick and Greco FS 4 of 11

Here is 3 of 11 draft grades handed out for 2008:



Melnick and Greco Fantasy Sports

Paul Greco had the best draft spot at #6. With his first round pick he got the reigning NL MVP Jimmy Rollins and setup his infield to look great from the start. He followed up his next two picks with more infielders grabbing Brandon Phillips and Victor Martinez. After that the rest of his infield is either suspect as to what they will accomplish or inconsistent with Adam LaRoche and Kevin Kouzmanoff. However he has several options that could turn out to be stellar starters like Mark Reynolds, Kazuo Matsui, Ramon Hernandez, and Ryan Garko. This is the best middle infield combo I've seen and if his corner players turn out good this could be a great infield. We are high on Matsui, Garko, and Kouzmanoff, but we remain reserved on LaRoche and Reynolds.
His infield has a nice combination of speed and power, but lacks average or RBI potential. Allot of runs will come from this infield.

In his outfield he got what may be the absolute steal of the draft getting Chris Young in the 8th round! C. Young brings power and speed to the table, and will be supported by projected starters Josh Hamilton and Adam Dunn. In support and probably utility is Bill Hall, Nick Swisher, and Luke Scott. Not sure about drafting Austin Kearns who should be in free agency, or Carlos Gonzalez who is a very deep sleeper and may not provide much support in 2008.

Paul Greco did draft a solid group of starters in Felix Hernandez, Jered Weaver, Scott Olsen, Daisuke Matsuzaka, and John Maine. We aren't high on Boof Bonsor who should be a free agent and there are probably better pitchers available. Still a very sound rotation. Nothing overly exciting, but should produce wins and average strikeouts. There is allot of risk in his starting rotation as every pitcher is either young, unstable, or inconsistent. Overall, the potential is huge.

His closers are a weak spot on his team and will spell doom for him in the SAVES category. He drafted the great veteran Chad Cordero, but only supported him with Giants closer Brain Wilson who may not have that job all season. His only other RP is Masahide Kobayashi who could grab saves now and then for the Indians, but is behind Borowski and Bentacourt.

Projected average weekly scoring -
HR - 9
RBI - 6
RUN - 11
SB - 7
AVG - 2

W - 9
SO - 6
SV - 1
ERA - 3
WHIP - 5

Total Score: 59

OVERALL DRAFT GRADE: C+

Up Next, Sean Sultaire Fantasy Baseball Geeks!

Expert League Draft Grades : Mock Draft Central 3 of 11

Here is 3 of 11 draft grades handed out for 2008:



Mock Draft Central

Geoff Stein came into the draft with the 7th overall pick and opened his draft surprising everyone by taking three aces with his first three picks. His incredible pitching staff includes Johan Santana, Jake Peavy, and Brandon Webb. After that his starting pitching is a bit suspect with Gil Meche, Ian Kennedy, Kevin Slowey, and Franklin Morales. Still those 7 pitchers make up the best rotation in this expert league. He also drafted an effective bullpen lead by closers such as Kevin Gregg, Eric Gagne, and Joakim Soria. He also drafted the veteran Eddie Guardado in Texas. His bullpen isn't going to wow anyone in WHIP and ERA, but it should compete in strikeouts and do alright saves.

His first offensive player was Curtis Granderson taken in the 4th round. Along with him his outfield consists of Shane Victorino, Michael Bourne, and Jose Gullien. His outfield is obviously built for speed is is probably the fasted in the league, but lacks average, power, and RBI potential. Huge run potential does help.

Oddly he also drafted three DH's in Frank Thomas, Travis Hafner, and Jim Thome. The bad part is all three only fill the utility spot, and there is only 2 utility spots. The could news is they all have tremendous pop and with Thome and Thomas tremendous age!

His infield is a little more centered with Edgar Renteria and the stud youngster Yunal Escobar at SS. At third base he has the speedster Chone Figgins and Evan Longoria. The rest of his infield consists of Aaron Hill, Paul Konerko, and Brain McCann. They are backed up by Ty Wigginton. Again, great speed, but weak on power and average. This team will need at some point to dip into free agency for offensive help in the season.


Projected average weekly scoring -
HR - 2
RBI - 3
RUN - 10
SB - 12
AVG - 4

W - 12
SO - 10
SV - 4
ERA - 10
WHIP - 8

Total Score: 75

OVERALL DRAFT GRADE: B+

Up Next, Paul Greco of Melnick and Greco Fantasy Sports!

Expert League Draft Grades :Baseball Geeks 2 of 11

Here is 2 of 11 draft grades handed out for 2008:



Baseball Geeks

Rob Reed came in with the 5th overall pick in the draft and snatched up a great 1st round pick in Miguel Cabrera giving his team a top notch 3rd basemen. He surrounded him with a excellent infield of Mark Teixeira, Carlos Guillen, Howie Kendrick, and Geovany Soto. His infield has tremendous upside, but it also carries with it the risk of injury and inconsistency. We are very high on Teixeira, but we'd like to see him follow up his time with the braves with another great season. Guillen will eventually qualify as a SS/1B, and with Cabrera are the anchors to that infield. They are backed up by only 2 players, Hank Blaylock, Joey Votto, Ryan Theriot,Orlando Cabrera, and Ronny Paulino. He has a very successful core of backup infielders for this team.

His outfield isn't the scariest I've seen, but he drafted a fairly solid one. The three projected starters are Tori Hunter, Ichiro Suzuki, and Brad Hawpe. His depth in his outfield is shatteringly weak with Juan Riveria, Barry Bonds, and Raul Ibanez. Riveria and Bonds don't have starting jobs and may not be 100%.

On the pitching front he will have some problems, drafted a class of starting pitchers that should hold up its own. He does lead his rotation with Oswalt, Bonderman and Wainwright three very solid starters, but then follows with Phil Hughes and Jon Lester. We are high on both these youngsters, but so far that is 4 risky pitchers and Bonderman. If Roy Oswalt performs like he did a few years ago he could have a very tough starting rotation. His depth is incredible at starting pitching with Yovani Gallardo, Randy Johnson, and Rich Hill to plug in as well. His bullpen is where he will have problems and weakness. He has only two closers, but very good ones in Billy Wagner and Francisco Rodriguez. After that its just Pat Neshek.

Projected average weekly scoring -
HR - 7
RBI - 7
RUN - 3
SB - 2
AVG - 6

W - 7
SO - 7
SV - 4
ERA - 2
WHIP - 4

Total Score: 44

OVERALL DRAFT GRADE: B-

Up Next, Geoff Stein and Mock Draft Central!

Expert Bios

A few thoughts:

1. Kudos to Geoff Stein for showing us his true self. Seriously, you are a beacon of hope to a certain class of people.
2. I did NOT confuse Rob with the "fantasybaseballgeeks!" Well, actually I did I suppose, I clicked on the wrong geek link. Why the hell do we have two geeks in the league???!!!!
3. Stoney-I have to say you are a scary looking dude.

Expert League Draft Grades :Fantasy Baseball Generals 1 of 11

Here is my first draft grade handed out for 2008:



Fantasy Baseball Generals

Overall Patrick has a sound roster and a very strong infield lead by Chase Utley. Aramis Ramirez and Mike Jacobs are solid corners, and Micheal Young at shortstop along with Kenji Johjima makes this infield one of the best drafted. I would worry about Jacobs consistenty, but Carlso Pena is his backup or actual starter. He further shows the strength of his team and his draft through his outfield with Carl Crawford, Magglio Ordonez, and Bobby Abreau. Backing those guys up are Jason Kubel, Jermaine Dye, and Adam Lind. Depending on how those players perform this team could lack serious depth for the long season from the draft.

If I had to pick a weak spot on this team its definitely pitching. His best starters are Joe Blanton and Ian Snell. He carries no legitimate ace and certainly will be scouring free agency for SP's all season. The other starters on his roster are Shaun Marcum, Jake Westbrook, His bullpen is far strong with three closers and several setup men. It looks like he took his draft in the direction of WHIP with the number of setup he got. CJ Wilson is questionable as a closer, but Joba Chamberlain could be a steal if he gets saves or starts.

Another problem for this team will be filling the utility spot. Patrick has high hopes for Jason Kubel, Jermaine Dye, Carlos Pena, and Adrain Beltre, but as for March 2008 those are weak to average at best selections for the utility spots.

I think he made several great picks through the draft starting with Carl Crawford in the second round. I skipped Chase Utley because I feel he's overrated and though he is the best second basemen by far he could have gotten allot more value with the #1 pick like Ryan Howard or Albert Pujols (injury free of course). Still a solid pick.

His 4th round selection of Magglio Ordonez was fantastic. Magglio was hampered with a bad knee last season and that actually cut into his power numbers late in the season, so expect 30+ Hrs from his 4th round pick, plus a high average. Getting Mariano Rivera in the 6th round was not only awesome, but it was the pick I wanted. Good steal Patrick.

The 7th round pick of Patrick's was questionable with Carlos Pena. The guy may very well have had a fluke season and with a hefty raise under his belt we expect his numbers to come down.

He certainly made up for it in round 10 again stealing another player from me (probably many of us) in Rafael Soriano. He should turn out to be a stellar closer.

Round 14 turned up a great sleeper in Joba Chamberlain. Some might consider it a little early for the setup man, but we feel he will have a great season and he provides protection for his other closer Mariano Rivera.

Shocked me in round 16 with CJ Wilson. Wilson is a converted closer with limited action last season. The only reason I feel it was too early for Wilson is there were better closers still out there. Wilson will fight all season to keep the job.

Patrick's late run on middle relievers and set up men clearly show his strategy of control ERA and WHIP, but he'll have to get the minimum number of innings in regardless and with Joe Blanton (round 17) leading that charge, so there could be problems.

Getting Shaun Marcum in round 21 was brilliant. He would have been a solid pick in the 17th instead of Blanton.

An absolute steal came in round 23 with first basemen Mike Jacobs. We project this guy to have a solid season and worthy of a pick in the late teens let alone round 23.

Another sleeper and very good pick was Jason Kubel in the 25th round. This is another power hitting outfielder finding his own in Minnesota. He will battle with inconsistency all season, but getting him in the 25th round was of little risk and all reward.

Projected Average weekly Scoring -
HR - 5
RBI - 6
RUN - 8
SB - 6
AVG - 8

W - 2
SO - 4
SV - 9
ERA - 10
WHIP - 11

Total Score: 69

OVERALL DRAFT GRADE: B

Up Next, Rob and Baseball Geeks