The Case for Expertise
This has been a challenging week for The True GURU. Even though this post isn't going to give you any real fantasy advice, it's what I'm been thinking about this week and I thought I would share it with the readers.
I got a decent hammering for my opinions on closers this week. I think I went too far challenging what an expert is, and moreso trying to define whether someone is an expert. I talked to several of my colleagues in the industry this week and there were many points of view on the question of an expert. One industry expert said, "look at the credentials in writing or fantasy baseball job related experience." Another expert pointed out wins in big leagues like TOUT Wars and such. There were more supporting point of views for experts being able to look into numbers with sabermetrics and find answers just like Bill James and the Boston Red Sox did. Finally, there is the experts who have a history of making great picks whatever the method.
As a fantasy manager, I've used expert advice in the past as I'm sure we all have. Some of that advice has been great, some of it has been bad. When I was deciding on how I would do my radio show and blog, I wanted to figure out why that advice was bad and try to deliver advice that was more accurate to more league managers.
Let's face it, this discussion between experts on closer strategies has little relevance except in the mind of the expert himself if you aren't playing his game. Think about it for a moment. The expert will create his ideal fantasy baseball situation to apply his advice he offers and sell it to you from that POV. Say you took that advice not to take closers early in the draft and you were in a points league with an innings limit. That would probably be bad advice. Even an H2H 5x5 roto league with inning limits, it would probably be bad advice.
Hold on! What if it was a roto 5x5 league with no maximum on innings, it would probably be good advice. It's difficult, if not impossible, to give advice on those players that are impacted by league rules. We all know it doesn't matter what league you are in, some players are just golden.
I wanted to try and focus on a players potential in several league types (points, roto, H2H) and not just my own and try to lessen the chance bad advice simply on the variation in league rules. Try to combine several theories like Sabermetrics, statistics and others to give a more concrete decision. At least that's my goal.
In the end what really matters is not the fact that one is an amazing writer, a web site reporter/owner, win alot of leagues, or make great picks is the definition of an expert, though these are fine reasons to support a person's case.
What really matters is not whether your advice is good. What matters in the grand scheme is whether people listen to us, read us, and take our advice. If that advice is good and consistent, they will comeback and they will be the ones who consider us experts. It has nothing to do with whether I think I'm an expert or if I think Patrick DiCaprio is an expert. Its you (in this case, the reader). You determine if the advice we offer for your team in your league is the advice you want and need. It's you who decides if our overall philosophy matches yours. It's you that determines if our strategy for winning is a strategy you can and will use.
That is what its all about. So after this post you will hear nothing more about whether me or anyone else is an expert. I'll leave that up to you.
Todd "The True GURU" Farino
The Fantasy Baseball Gurus Show Sundays at 7pm EST on Blogtalk Radio.
I got a decent hammering for my opinions on closers this week. I think I went too far challenging what an expert is, and moreso trying to define whether someone is an expert. I talked to several of my colleagues in the industry this week and there were many points of view on the question of an expert. One industry expert said, "look at the credentials in writing or fantasy baseball job related experience." Another expert pointed out wins in big leagues like TOUT Wars and such. There were more supporting point of views for experts being able to look into numbers with sabermetrics and find answers just like Bill James and the Boston Red Sox did. Finally, there is the experts who have a history of making great picks whatever the method.
As a fantasy manager, I've used expert advice in the past as I'm sure we all have. Some of that advice has been great, some of it has been bad. When I was deciding on how I would do my radio show and blog, I wanted to figure out why that advice was bad and try to deliver advice that was more accurate to more league managers.
Let's face it, this discussion between experts on closer strategies has little relevance except in the mind of the expert himself if you aren't playing his game. Think about it for a moment. The expert will create his ideal fantasy baseball situation to apply his advice he offers and sell it to you from that POV. Say you took that advice not to take closers early in the draft and you were in a points league with an innings limit. That would probably be bad advice. Even an H2H 5x5 roto league with inning limits, it would probably be bad advice.
Hold on! What if it was a roto 5x5 league with no maximum on innings, it would probably be good advice. It's difficult, if not impossible, to give advice on those players that are impacted by league rules. We all know it doesn't matter what league you are in, some players are just golden.
I wanted to try and focus on a players potential in several league types (points, roto, H2H) and not just my own and try to lessen the chance bad advice simply on the variation in league rules. Try to combine several theories like Sabermetrics, statistics and others to give a more concrete decision. At least that's my goal.
In the end what really matters is not the fact that one is an amazing writer, a web site reporter/owner, win alot of leagues, or make great picks is the definition of an expert, though these are fine reasons to support a person's case.
What really matters is not whether your advice is good. What matters in the grand scheme is whether people listen to us, read us, and take our advice. If that advice is good and consistent, they will comeback and they will be the ones who consider us experts. It has nothing to do with whether I think I'm an expert or if I think Patrick DiCaprio is an expert. Its you (in this case, the reader). You determine if the advice we offer for your team in your league is the advice you want and need. It's you who decides if our overall philosophy matches yours. It's you that determines if our strategy for winning is a strategy you can and will use.
That is what its all about. So after this post you will hear nothing more about whether me or anyone else is an expert. I'll leave that up to you.
Todd "The True GURU" Farino
The Fantasy Baseball Gurus Show Sundays at 7pm EST on Blogtalk Radio.
2 Comments:
I've always hated the moniker "expert" because I feel I'm just like anyone else... only after years of experience, I have developed a way of looking at things that, for the most part, has proven successful for me in my fantasy exploits.
I prefer the term "veteran" -- or even better "grizzled veteran" (although I have every intention to shave this morning).
I really want to make love to you Rob.
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