Evaluating The Hamilton/Dice-K For Lee/Qualls Trade
Melnick & Greco recently made a trade with Fantasy Baseball Geeks. Let's take an objective look.
The Geeks receive Josh Hamilton and Daisuke Matsuzaka. Melnick & Greco receive Carlos Lee and Chad Qualls.
Though competition for waiver wire closers has been fierce in this league, I have to rate Qualls as a non-factor in this trade. The fact remains that he is a third-in-line closer, and plenty of those are freely available. So in my mind, it's Lee for Hamilton/Dice-K.
My preseason dollar values had Matsuzaka at $22, Hamilton at $8, and Lee at $21. These values don't fit with their draft positions, but that's because Matsuzaka, as a starting pitcher, is riskier than Lee.
Hamilton is off to a solid start, but more importantly he hasn't shown any signs of injury. My $8 projection calls for just 425 ABs; if Hamilton gets 550 ABs that changes to $17 and the Geeks win the deal running away.
Risk must be considered in evaluating this trade though. In a way, Melnick & Greco reduced risk by moving Dice-K and Hamilton for the very safe Lee. I like that. But the Geeks' risk is spread among two players, and Matsuzaka hasn't had any recent health problems.
In subsequent waiver wire moves, Melnick & Greco added Dustin Moseley and the Geeks cut Todd Wellemeyer.
I think you can see where I'm going with this...the Geeks won this swap. Of course, time will tell.
The Geeks receive Josh Hamilton and Daisuke Matsuzaka. Melnick & Greco receive Carlos Lee and Chad Qualls.
Though competition for waiver wire closers has been fierce in this league, I have to rate Qualls as a non-factor in this trade. The fact remains that he is a third-in-line closer, and plenty of those are freely available. So in my mind, it's Lee for Hamilton/Dice-K.
My preseason dollar values had Matsuzaka at $22, Hamilton at $8, and Lee at $21. These values don't fit with their draft positions, but that's because Matsuzaka, as a starting pitcher, is riskier than Lee.
Hamilton is off to a solid start, but more importantly he hasn't shown any signs of injury. My $8 projection calls for just 425 ABs; if Hamilton gets 550 ABs that changes to $17 and the Geeks win the deal running away.
Risk must be considered in evaluating this trade though. In a way, Melnick & Greco reduced risk by moving Dice-K and Hamilton for the very safe Lee. I like that. But the Geeks' risk is spread among two players, and Matsuzaka hasn't had any recent health problems.
In subsequent waiver wire moves, Melnick & Greco added Dustin Moseley and the Geeks cut Todd Wellemeyer.
I think you can see where I'm going with this...the Geeks won this swap. Of course, time will tell.
1 Comments:
Tim,
Great analysis. However, I think the risk plays a MAJOR factor in this deal. Melnick & Greco had 2 somewhat risky players, and unloaded them for one of the op most consistent hitting OF's in a season where top-notch OF's are hard to find. Also woerk in the fact that Dice-K isn't a good ERA or WHIP pitcher and Qualls brings that to the table since SP's aren't players you have to play. That will change next season with addinf SP slots, but for now I think this trade was Hamilton for Lee. In that case Paul pulled off a steal. We will see only time will tell.
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