Thursday, March 13, 2008

Expert League Results Forecast

Just wanted to share my forecast of the expert league results. Of course, actual results may and will vary, so engage in reckless wagering at your own peril ! As you can see below, FantasyBaseballMafia is the predicted favorite, but if he gets implicated in the Eliot Spitzer hooker scandal (5% chance ?), then Fantasy Baseball Generals should eventually be crowned league champion. Of course, don't count the crafty Guru out, as he is certain to bolster his team by working the waiver wire, and there is an estimated 7% chance he may discover the next Lou Brock in 2008.

Here is the overall ranking summary, these numbers reflect the forecasted sum of rankings across the typical 5 pitching (Wins, Saves, K's, ERA, Whip) and 5 batting (Avg,HRs,RBI,Runs, SBs) categories:






























































































Batting

Pitching

Total

1

FantasyBaseballMafia

43

41

84

2

FantasyBaseballGenerals

45

38

83

3

FantasyBaseballGeeks

35

39

74

4

JunkyardJake

37

35

72

5

FantasyFanatics

32

36

68

6

MockDraftCentral

17

46

63

7

FantasyBaseballSearch

26

36

62

8

Rotodoc

26

35

61

9

BaseballGeeks

38

21

59

10

RotoAuthority

38

19

57

11

Melnick&Greco

32

19

51

12

StoneysLounge

21

25

46




Here are the detailed predictions, based on enough space-age statistical models that they could melt your face off (Of course face-melting and accuracy are two different things, which probably means Stoney wins, and I finish last, we will see):





























































































































































































































































































































































































































Ranks

Avg

HR's

Runs

RBI's

SB's

Avg

HR's

Runs

RBI's

SB's

Total

1

StoneysLounge

0.2917

233

845

856

65

9

7

1

3

1

21

2

FantasyBaseballGeeks

0.2877

226

932

897

176

5

3

8

8

11

35

3

FantasyBaseballSearch

0.2874

237

915

873

113

4

8

4

6

4

26

4

RotoAuthority

0.2918

226

957

851

193

10

4

10

2

12

38

5

BaseballGeeks

0.2971

232

929

952

108

12

6

7

10

3

38

6

Melnick&Greco

0.2756

277

916

888

129

1

12

5

7

7

32

7

MockDraftCentral

0.2796

205

891

822

170

3

1

2

1

10

17

8

JunkyardJake

0.2934

213

960

868

151

11

2

11

5

8

37

9

FantasyBaseballGenerals

0.2904

245

963

994

119

7

9

12

12

5

45

10

FantasyFanatics

0.2777

268

919

978

80

2

11

6

11

2

32

11

Rotodoc

0.2909

230

914

865

121

8

5

3

4

6

26

12

FantasyBaseballMafia

0.2887

251

946

904

154

6

10

9

9

9

43

Ranks

Wins

Saves

K's

ERA

Whip

Wins

Saves

K's

ERA

Whip

Total

1

StoneysLounge

85

68

1054

3.5588

1.2525

7

4

7

3

4

25

2

FantasyBaseballGeeks

87

79

1142

3.5338

1.2563

10

9

11

6

3

39

3

FantasyBaseballSearch

94

68

1011

3.525

1.235

11

5

6

7

7

36

4

RotoAuthority

77

63

1073

3.7125

1.2638

4

3

8

2

2

19

5

BaseballGeeks

75

71

956

3.5375

1.2388

2

6

3

5

5

21

6

Melnick&Greco

82

60

1136

3.9238

1.3088

5

2

10

1

1

19

7

MockDraftCentral

85

82

1108

3.4863

1.2238

8

10

9

9

10

46

8

JunkyardJake

83

78

976

3.4386

1.2371

6

8

5

10

6

35

9

FantasyBaseballGenerals

63

132

858

3.385

1.195

1

12

1

12

12

38

10

FantasyFanatics

101

77

964

3.5375

1.2238

12

7

4

4

9

36

11

Rotodoc

75

104

951

3.5213

1.2125

3

11

2

8

11

35

12

FantasyBaseballMafia

87

49

1212

3.4175

1.2288

9

1

12

11

8

41




Hopefully the tables don't publish as a big jumbled mess., I think I found a cool trick to remove the huge spaces that Blogger so generously places in front of tables. If you have had the same problem, let me know.

3 Comments:

Blogger Patrick DiCaprio said...

Looks very reasonable to me :-)

Though the Mafia is going to get whacked. Evan was talking smack on his podcast, saying he was going to "crush" this league! How can they win in a league with two Geeks, a General, and a Junkyard dog?

Should be great, lets get some smack talk going. The gauntlet is thrown down....

March 14, 2008 6:53 PM  
Blogger The True GURU said...

Great analysis RC. I really like it except placing me 7th, but just means I have work to do during the season and that is my best skill.

Did Evan really think he was going to dominate the league? I can't wait for this league to start!

March 15, 2008 1:58 AM  
Blogger Stoney said...

Here's how my space age software technology sees things. This is according to actual draft results and does not reflect Add/Waives since the draft.
Since I can't post an image here I will just post a link to it.

http://i204.photobucket.com/albums/bb43/hwjohn/FBSELDraftAnalysis.jpg

It seems so odd to me that I ended up picked as having the worst draft. Was that based on anything scientific or just a few opinions?

March 17, 2008 2:05 PM  

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