Brett Anderson and Scott Sizemore February 28, 2010
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SP Brett Anderson,A's, - While fellow left-hander David Price received more publicity in 2009, it was Oakland's rookie Brett Anderson who ended up looking like the more accomplished rookie pitcher. Originally drafted in the 2nd round by the Arizona Diamondbacks, Anderson was traded to the A's in 2008, and had only 6 starts at the AA level before joining Oakland’s rotation in 2009. The 21-year old didn't disappoint, compiling 11 victories with 150 K's in 30 starts. Most encouraging was the rookie's ability to improve in the 2nd half of the season, lowering his ERA from 4.64 to 3.48, and his WHIP from 1.37 to 1.19 in the 2nd half. Anderson consistently throws strikes and his fastball is usually seen in the 92-93 MPH range. He also mixes in an effective 80 MPH slider about 30% of the time, and rounds out his arsenal with an excellent curve and solid changeup. Anderson generally pitches to contact, but still generated 7.7 K/9 while walking just 2.3 batters per 9 innings in 2009.
2B Scott Sizemore,Tigers, - Scott Sizemore was relatively quiet during his first three years in the minors, compiling a .289 average and only 11 HRs in 248 games over the 2006-2008 timeframe. In 2009, after reaching the Tigers AA affiliate at the age of 24, Sizemore turned his game up a notch, hitting .307 with 9 HRs in only 59 games. After his promotion to the AAA level, Sizemore continued his offensive surge hitting another 8 HRs while maintaining a .308 average through 71 games at Toledo. Along with his good average, and recent HR power, Sizemore also offers some speed on the base paths, notching 58 steals in 378 career minor league games. With Placido Polanco being shipped out of Detroit this past offseason, and only the light-hitting Ramon Santiago seemingly in his way, Scott Sizemore has an opportunity to capture significant playing time for the Tigers at 2nd base in 2010. You should be able to snag Sizemore past the 25th round in your fantasy draft as a solid sleeper pick.
To get more from Todd Farino, RC Rizza, and Rhett Oldham. Listen to our weekly podcast at www.blogtalkradio.com/fantasy-baseball-tonight. Listen to us LIVE every Wednesday at 10pm EST for 90 minutes of pure fantasy baseball talk.
Preparation in March means victory in October and you can quote me on that. Most people who play fantasy baseball are aggregators. We find sites that can provide in depth analysis with projections, opinions, and data that can facilitate maximum knowledge that we can use on draft day. Part of this process validate what we already know; some players are posed for that breakout season and we want them at almost any costs while others need to show on someone else's sqaud because they are on my DND (DO NOT DRAFT) List.
There are just some players that are primed for a big fall no matter what the experts say or what the analysis from the Saber Heads requites. The bottom line, I just don't want them.
David Wright, 3B, Mets Power outage with no injury. The Mets sign Jason Bey but still did not address issues in the everyday lineup and Beltran will not start the season.
Ichiro Suzuki, OF Mariners This guy hits for average and steals bases. He is 36 years old and his mammoth ego now has to share locker space with some other big money people. This guy is on the decline. He will still hit .300 but will not steal 30 bases and will not have over 50 RBI.
Manny, OF Dodgers He wants to play then doesn't want to play. he can't field or throw and his big money days are behind him. The second half decline may be chemically induced or a result of a slower bat. Either way, people are still taking him in the 5th round. Not me
Bobby Abreu, OF Angels See Ichiro. At 36, and still is a stolen base threat, don't count on it. Wheels slow down and so does the bat.
Carlos Quentin, OF, ChiSox Injury plagued in Arizona so they ship him to Chicago for practically nothing. He has a great 5 months and guess what, gets hurt. Next season, gets hurt. Now here we are and I am thinking, oh yea, I think he will be great and play a full season. Not me.
Alex Rios, OF ChiSox Some interesting facts on Rios. He has only hit over 20 home runs ONE TIME in his career. He has never hit over 85 RBI. He has only stole more than 20 bases twice. Just because Toronto gave him mad money doesn't mean I will buy into the hype.
Next week I will be looking over the DND Pitcher List
To get more from Todd Farino, RC Rizza, and Rhett Oldham. Listen to our weekly podcast at www.blogtalkradio.com/fantasy-baseball-tonight. Listen to us LIVE every Wednesday at 10pm EST for 90 minutes of pure fantasy baseball talk.
This is probably the easiest breakout call this season. Anyone who knows this closer, but closers in general (shameless plug: www.thecloserreport.com ), can see what a great season Francisco Rodriguez will have. Let's face it, Rodriguez had a bad season. But consider that the Mets were terrible as a team and he still recorded 35 saves. Before 2009, Rodriguez never had an ERA above 3.00, less then 40 saves, less than 77 Ks, or a WHIP above 1.30.
Consider 2009 a bad season and a wash. I watched Francisco Rodriguez many times last season and he just didn't have it. It seemed as he was never comfortable on the mound in New York. I'm going to assume whatever was bothering him on the mound last season will be gone. Just chalk it up as another disappointing performance during a WBC year.
The Mets will be a much better team this year and after last season that isn't saying much. Rodriguez will have the chance to redeem himself by getting plenty of opportunities with a playoff competitive team. Last year was such an anomaly that I am willing to bet my expertise on closers that Rodriguez will have a big comeback year in every statistical rotisserie sabermetric category.
The True Guru Projections: 44 Saves, 5 wins, 2.84 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 81 K
To get more from Todd Farino, RC Rizza, and Rhett Oldham. Listen to our weekly podcast at www.blogtalkradio.com/fantasy-baseball-tonight. Listen to us LIVE every Wednesday at 10pm EST for 90 minutes of pure fantasy baseball talk.
James Loney was a 1st round pick of the Los Angeles Dodgers in 2002. After several seasons in the minors, he displayed the ability to hit for average with power and some speed. Since making is MLB debut in 2006, Loney has developed his power, matured into a consistent hitter, and he has surpassed the growth milestone of 1500 at bats and finished strong last season. At the age of 26, expect Loney to emerge as one of the elite major league first basemen in 2010.
Loney is primed and ready for a breakout season, entering the prime of his career. Though his stats have been consistent over the past three seasons, Loney has underachieved in average and home runs to this point in his career and will reach those expectations this season. To start, Loney will have a stable Dodger lineup and improved experience against NL pitching. With added protection in the lineup and vital improvements to the Dodger lineup, Loney will increase RBIs, runs, average, and home runs. He can even reach 10 stolen bases if things work out perfect in 2010.
The Dodgers are a young team hungry for the World Series. With the prospect of an emerging Matt Kemp, a full season with Manny Ramirez, and other offensive improvements James Loney will breakout with the rest of the Dodger offense.
The True Guru Projections: .311 BA, 20 Hrs, 101 RBI, 80 Runs, 9 SB
To get more from Todd Farino, RC Rizza, and Rhett Oldham. Listen to our weekly podcast at www.blogtalkradio.com/fantasy-baseball-tonight. Listen to us LIVE every Wednesday at 10pm EST for 90 minutes of pure fantasy baseball talk.
Brandon Wood will open the 2010 season and age 25 and is ready for primetime. Drafted out of high school by the Angels, Wood has spent 6 years maturing in the Angels farm system compiling fantastic numbers that he is now ready to turn into major league numbers. He has had three stints with the Angels, including last year. In just 224 at bats he's totaled seven home runs and a poultry .192 average. Clearly that is not the sleeper I expect him to be this year.
Wood will be the Angels third basemen with Chone Figgins departing for rival Seattle. This will be the first season that Wood will be a full spring training in and then have consecutive at bats all season as the regular third basemen. This should have a dramatic impact on his numbers and you will see a jump in all stats including average.
Throughout his minor league career, Wood was known for his power, belting 31 home runs in AAA in only 395 at bats and 41 dingers in a full season at A+. Scouts love everything about Wood. They rave about his ability to make contact, his power, and his glove. If Wood truly is ready for the majors, he will be a breakout in 2010. The Angels are not known for rushing up their prospects and Wood was given plenty of time to mature. He is entering his prime years and you can expect big numbers from him as the Angels will likely bat him in the middle of that lineup and give him ample opportunity for RBIs. Although he's not known for his speed, expect him to steal a few bases, especially since the Angels run allot.
If you draft Brandon Wood, you can get him late. Don't be afraid to take him in the 18th round or beyond. If you didn't get one of the stud third basemen, forget looking until later and get Wood. Like all rookies their is risk associated with him, but it's minimal. I'm giving my conservative projections on average, but not home runs.
To get more from Todd Farino, RC Rizza and Rhett Oldham, catch our weekly podcast at www.blogtalkradio.com/fantasy-baseball-tonight . Listen to us LIVE every Wednesday at 10pm EST for 90 minutes of pure fantasy baseball talk.
Last year, Snider's name was tossed around like a rag doll. Frankly, he deserved it. He started the season as an everyday player for the Blue Jays, but got nothing done. By the time he got sent down in late May, Snider was batting .242 with two home runs.
While he was in Las Vegas I got in a few games and watched him excel. Travis Snider a true hitter, what I'd call a professional hitter. He is very hard on himself when he makes mistakes and his frustration snowballs for him and thusly creates slumps and inconsistency. He found his grove in AAA hitting .337 with 14 homeruns before getting called up back to the Blue Jays in August.
While his average didn't improve, his power did. He pounded seven home runs in less then two months and showed he can stick in the majors. In 2010 and the young age of 22, Snider will continue to improve as a player and adjust well to major league pitchers. If you draft him, draft him as a late deep sleeper and you will get excellent value for him. He is going relatively unnoticed by most managers and could provide your fantasy team with 20 home runs and some RBIs to boot. Don't expect a huge improvement in batting average, while he is certainly capable of batting .300 he's not quite ready. Also consider his value to the Blue Jays as a left-handed hitter. Besides Lyle Overbay and Adam Lind, the Blue have no other lefties on their roster.
To get more from Todd Farino, RC Rizza and Rhett Oldham, catch our weekly podcast at www.blogtalkradio.com/fantasy-baseball-tonight . Listen to us LIVE every Wednesday at 10pm EST for 90 minutes of pure fantasy baseball talk.
Stephen Strasburg and Gordon Beckham February 23, 2010
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SP Stephen Strasburg,Nationals, - One of the most anticipated pitching prospects to come along in recent memory, Stephen Strasburg certainly appears to have the talent to match the accolades that have been showered on him since the Washington Nationals made him the #1 pick in the 2009 amateur draft. Anyway you chose to look at his pitching performance at San Diego State, the numbers are gaudy. Last season, he went 13-1 with an ERA of 1.32, striking out 195 batters in 109 innings. His career WHIP in college ball is just under .80, and he once struck-out 23 batters in a single game. His fastball has been clocked as high as an obscene 103 MPH, and he consistently throws in the high-90's with superb control and good location. Strasburg complements his heater with a hybrid curve/slider breaking pitch that typically freezes hitters, and his recent development of a change-up makes his arsenal even more imposing. For fantasy purposes, Strasburg is well worth a pick in his current 20th round ADP.
2B/SS/3B Gordon Beckham,White Sox, - A standout college middle infielder at the University of Georgia, Gordan Beckham was selected by White Sox in with the 8th pick in the 2008 amateur entry draft. This was also the year that scouts really began taking notice of Beckham, when he ultimately ended up leading the SEC in hits, slugging percentage and homeruns (28). The stocky SS also finished 2nd in the league with a .411 average that year, while displaying some skills on the basepaths with 17 swipes . During his brief stay in the minors, Beckham didn't show much power or speed, but made enough contact to generate a .322 BA in 59 games. Called up in June last year, Beckham started off slow, but ended up batting .270 with strong power/speed numbers that translate into 22 HRs/11 SBs over 162 games. Beckham's 8th round ADP in early baseball drafts seems a bit high, but if he qualifies at 2B/SS this could be a fair price to pay for a middle infielder with 20 HR potential.
To get more from Todd Farino, RC Rizza, and Rhett Oldham. Listen to our weekly podcast at www.blogtalkradio.com/fantasy-baseball-tonight. Listen to us LIVE every Wednesday at 10pm EST for 90 minutes of pure fantasy baseball talk.
On Wednesday night I had the opportunity to participate in The Fantasy Man's expert league auction draft. I played in the league last year and faired all right, but this year has a new batch of experts, analysts, and reporters duking it out in 2010. The participants are:
Todd Farino, RC Rizza, Rhett Oldham - Fantasy Baseball Tonight
Tim McCleod - Rotorob.com
Mike Kuchera - The Fantasy Man
Scott White - CBS Sports
Scott Swanay - Fantasy Baseball Sherpa
Lenny Melnick, Paul Greco FantasyPros 911
Fantasy Sports Empires - Jeff Boggis
Grey Albright, Rudy Gamble - Razzball.com
Tony Cincotta - Blog Talk Radio Podcaster
Overall I thought it was a great draft and all the managers drafted well. There were some big surprises and some bad moves. I'll share them all with you team by team and then grade the overall team. I am basing scores on my 2010 projections for the players drafted.
Definitions:
Best Buys - These are players who the manager got a great deal on and includes
steals.
Bad Buys - These are players that I feel based on my 2010 projections that the
manager overpaid for.
Ray drafted one of the more balanced offensive teams in the league. He has
tremendous batting average potential, and could end up with more home runs then
expected. I think he overpaid for only two players, that will likely haunt
him in 2010, Berkman and Qualls. On the pitching front, he went with Josh
Beckett to lead his staff with James Shields and Tim Hudson to follow. I'm
not impressed with his starting staff, but if Max Scherzer plays to his
potential that changes the dynamic of his rotation. He drafted three closers
(Nathan, Wilson, Qualls) and then Matt Thornton. Wilson and Nathan are great picks and make his bullpen an instant contender. Qualls is a candidate to
lose the job and Thornton is a candidate to get the job at some point this year.
He could end up with two true closers or possibly four.
This was a balanced team by any means. It was drafted on the foundation of
a strong outfield that should produce heavily for this team. Most of the
picks were good ones and their offense should keep them in it all season, except
for average. They'll need to find help there during the season. The
pitching staff is very good, but will depend on the health of Brandon Webb.
If he is healthy and pitches well, they will have Cliff Lee and Adam Wainwright
to add for a dominant starting staff. The bullpen will need help.
Francisco, Lindstrom, and Capps all have risks, but all could also pay off.
There are allot of question marks on this team, but a well constructed team
overall.
Scott had a all or nothing draft strategy and it worked out solid for him.
He put the mass of his money into his offense, which is very good with purchases
of Troy Tulowitzki, Hanley Ramirez, Ryan Howard, Victor Martinez, and Joe Mauer.
I don't think it was wise to spend $53 on catchers, but he couldn't ask for two
better ones. He spent all of $22 on his pitching staff, but drafted a
solid one. His most expensive pitcher was A.J. Burnett at $7, but I liked
Edwin Jackson and J.A. Happ the best. His bullpen has one closer, Leo
Nunez. That is a weak position to start from, but he will likely attempt
to improve it during the season.
To get more from Todd Farino, RC Rizza, and Rhett Oldham. Listen to our weekly podcast at www.blogtalkradio.com/fantasy-baseball-tonight. Listen to us LIVE every Wednesday at 10pm EST for 90 minutes of pure fantasy baseball talk.
Pitchers, catchers, and would be non roster invitees are preparing for the 2010 season so that means your draft day preparation begins as well. As you prepare, you need to know who is in your league and how they may be preparing. Each league is made up of different components. See if you can identify who may be in your league this year.
LAZY GUY If you are drafting online, do not use the rankings the queue gives you. After all, the rankings are from one source and the half of the league that was too lazy to rank their own players becomes incredibly predictable. Don't be part of that half. Since you are going to be working this league for six months take an extra few hours to pre rank your players.
EXPERT GUY Refrain from the mantra of, "I did alot of research so I want to show everyone how smart I am." These player are the king of the reach. They draft players earlier than most everyone has them rated and has to comment on every pick with a brush off or stamp of approval. These guys are annoying.
PRESEASON GUY Pre-draft standings are the most worthless piece of information ever invented. Immediately after the draft, their is software that will tell you who will win your league based on projections. Hey Roto breath, let's play the season first before we anoint a champion. Do not fall into that trap
SABER GUY Sabermetrics is a crutch. Saberheads will justify every pick with some obsure stat that comes from another language. I get it, you mathmeticians can read numbers and apply them. I also get that if I put twelve sabermetrics guys in one league one of them will finish last. Sabermetrics stats are a great tool, but only that, a tool for success.
HOMER GUY Before every online draft, I like to find out where everyone is from or who their favorite team is because invariably the hometown guy will tip his hand. When a guy names his team, Yankee Fanatic 26, he might as well say, man crush.
ROOKIE GUY There always seems to be one guy who drafts all rookies and young players early so he can be the guy that says, "I discovered Gordon Beckham when he was a rookie." In reality you are the guy who drafted him seven rounds earlier than anyone else. We all know about him, just didn't want him that early.
NO RESEARCH GUY This guy shows up and after every pick says, "Man I didn't have time to do any research." I never believe these guys except when they ask to borrow my notebook of information!"
SCOUT GUY This guy drafts every player on a hunch...they are a dying breed. Whether the scout guy wants to admit it, he still is using WHIP for pitchers and on base percentage for hitters. Stats and scouts are not mutually exclusive.
GIMMICK GUY These guys are fun to be in a league with because every year that show up with a draft strategy that is off the wall. They show up and draft nine pitchers in a row or the next year they take all hitters who only steal bases and hit for average. The next year they only draft relievers. Heaven forbid they win your league because from that point on they will be bragging about their league title in 1993 when they won with one of those crazy strategies.
Obviously, I am taking the most extreme cases here. Most importantly, don't fall into one of these catagories. Best of luck in your leagues this year.
To get more from Todd Farino, RC Rizza, and Rhett Oldham. Listen to our weekly podcast at www.blogtalkradio.com/fantasy-baseball-tonight. Listen to us LIVE every Wednesday at 10pm EST for 90 minutes of pure fantasy baseball talk.
On Wednesday night I had the opportunity to participate in The Fantasy Man's expert league auction draft. I played in the league last year and faired all right, but this year has a new batch of experts, analysts, and reporters duking it out in 2010. The participants are:
Todd Farino, RC Rizza, Rhett Oldham - Fantasy Baseball Tonight
Tim McCleod - Rotorob.com
Mike Kuchera - The Fantasy Man
Scott White - CBS Sports
Scott Swanay - Fantasy Baseball Sherpa
Lenny Melnick, Paul Greco FantasyPros 911
Fantasy Sports Empires - Jeff Boggis
Grey Albright, Rudy Gamble - Razzball.com
Tony Cincotta - Blog Talk Radio Podcaster
Overall I thought it was a great draft and all the managers drafted well. There were some big surprises and some bad moves. I'll share them all with you team by team and then grade the overall team. I am basing scores on my 2010 projections for the players drafted.
Definitions:
Best Buys - These are players who the manager got a great deal on and includes
steals.
Bad Buys - These are players that I feel based on my 2010 projections that the
manager overpaid for.
Great draft for Scott. One of the more balanced teams. on offense he
took some chances on some players who could provide a serious boost to his team
with guys like Chris Davis, Escobar, and Morgan. I think they will all do
just fine. On the pitching front, he again took some chances I think with
Vasquez and Peavy, but I love it. Peavy should be outstanding in 2010 and
lead his staff with Dan Haren. His bullpen is crazy. He drafted 4
relief pitchers in Jenks, Lidge, Rivera, and Dotel. The problem is Lidge,
Jenks, and Dotel might not get many saves. I gave him credit that they
will, but I have a feeling Scott will be scouring the waiver wire for closers
all year.
FantasyBaseball.com, Chris McDonnell
HR/RBI- 10
SB/Run- 7
Avg-
6
37/60
Win/SO- 8
ERA/WHIP- 5
Saves- 1
Best Buys
Michael Cuddyer, OF - $6
Miguel Tejeda, SS - $1
Bad Buys
Brain McCann, C - $21
Alex Rodriguez, 3B - $38
Derek Lee, 1B - $16
Carlos Lee, OF - $21
Overall:
I have to say I didn't like this strategy. Chris completely booted saves
and for that matter pitching. I'm sure he has a great in-season strategy
to make up for it, but for now it's not looking good. With nine starting
pitchers, four of which cost $1, it will be hard for him to maintain a stable
ERA and WHIP. He should be fine in wins and strikeouts. His offense
is outstanding and one of the stronger. He drafted a dominating catcher in
McCann and has a stellar infield of Youkilis, Pedroia, AROD, and Kinsler .
Chris's team can still win the eague, but it will be a struggle all year with
him chasing saves, ERA, WHIP, and average.
Mike drafted another excellent well balanced team. He has a great mixture
of youth and veterans poised for a big season. He got great values on
several offensive players that should have gone for more like B.J. Upton and
Nolan Reimold. His pick of David Price was excellent and he stole Chris
Cater from RC and I because I wasn't paying attention and did bid $3.
Carter could be a big player this year for the Athletics. His bullpen is
average with Cordero and Soriano though both are trade deadline trade risks.
To get more from Todd Farino, RC Rizza, and Rhett Oldham. Listen to our weekly podcast at www.blogtalkradio.com/fantasy-baseball-tonight. Listen to us LIVE every Wednesday at 10pm EST for 90 minutes of pure fantasy baseball talk.
On Wednesday night I had the opportunity to participate in The Fantasy Man's expert league auction draft. I played in the league last year and faired all right, but this year has a new batch of experts, analysts, and reporters duking it out in 2010. The participants are:
Todd Farino, RC Rizza, Rhett Oldham - Fantasy Baseball Tonight
Tim McCleod - Rotorob.com
Mike Kuchera - The Fantasy Man
Scott White - CBS Sports
Scott Swanay - Fantasy Baseball Sherpa
Lenny Melnick, Paul Greco FantasyPros 911
Fantasy Sports Empires - Jeff Boggis
Grey Albright, Rudy Gamble - Razzball.com
Tony Cincotta - Blog Talk Radio Podcaster
Overall I thought it was a great draft and all the managers drafted well. There were some big surprises and some bad moves. I'll share them all with you team by team and then grade the overall team. I am basing scores on my 2010 projections for the players drafted.
Definitions:
Best Buys - These are players who the manager got a great deal on and includes
steals.
Bad Buys - These are players that I feel based on my 2010 projections that the
manager overpaid for.
Ryan blew his wad early in the draft with his first three purchases, big time
fantasy powerhouses in Albert Pujols, Chase Utley, and Evan Logoria. They
cost him $131/$260, so he had to spend wisely for the remaining 20 players he
needed. He did just that. Ryan was able to secure several
serviceable players for $3 or less and built a very good team to enter the
season.
Fantasy Baseball Tonight, RC Rizza and Todd Farino
HR/RBI- 10
SB/Run- 9
Avg- 8
49/60
Win/SO- 6
ERA/WHIP- 7
Saves- 9
Best Buys
Mark Reynolds, 3B - $28
Brandon Wood, 3B - $3
Ryan Braun, OF - $37
Johan Santana, SP - $22
Cameron Maybin, OF - $2
Casey MaGehee, 3B - $3
Bad Buys
Jason Barlett, SS - $9
Aaron Hill, 2B - $17
Scott Kazmir, SP - $8
Andrew Bailey, RP - $11
Jonathan Broxton, RP - $19
Overall:
I'll be a bit bias towards the team RC and I drafted. We spread our money
around very well, spending $165/$260 on the offense. Across the
board we have power topped by Ryan Braun, Mark Reynolds, Matt Holiday, and Aaron
Hill. We also drafted 6 players who can steal 15 bases or more and then
Russell Martin and Elijah Dukes. Our primary weakness is in our pitching where
we have 3 very young pitchers who could have problems getting wins and
strikeouts in Davis, Latos, and Buchholtz. We do have a stellar bullpen
with Broxton, Marmol, and Bailey, but there is some risk with those closers.
I like the team that Grey and Rudy built here. They filled it up with
plenty of power and speed, but sacrificed average. In my opinion they have
the fasted team so far and scored a 19/20 between steals and home runs.
They have a solid starting staff led by Tim Lincecum and Zack Grienke. The
only problem is the lack of wins his staff as a whole can produce. His
bullpen is weak with Valverde and Wood. I believe the closer in Houston
wil be matt Lindstrom, but if Brandon Lyon wins the job their bullpen score
raises to an 8.
To get more from Todd Farino, RC Rizza, and Rhett Oldham. Listen to our weekly podcast at www.blogtalkradio.com/fantasy-baseball-tonight. Listen to us LIVE every Wednesday at 10pm EST for 90 minutes of pure fantasy baseball talk.
On Wednesday night I had the opportunity to participate in The Fantasy Man's expert league auction draft. I played in the league last year and faired all right, but this year has a new batch of experts, analysts, and reporters duking it out in 2010. The participants are:
Todd Farino, RC Rizza, Rhett Oldham - Fantasy Baseball Tonight
Tim McCleod - Rotorob.com
Mike Kuchera - The Fantasy Man
Scott White - CBS Sports
Scott Swanay - Fantasy Baseball Sherpa
Lenny Melnick, Paul Greco FantasyPros 911
Fantasy Sports Empires - Jeff Boggis
Grey Albright, Rudy Gamble - Razzball.com
Tony Cincotta - Blog Talk Radio Podcaster
Overall I thought it was a great draft and all the managers drafted well. There were some big surprises and some bad moves. I'll share them all with you team by team and then grade the overall team. I am basing scores on my 2010 projections for the players drafted.
Definitions:
Best Buys - These are players who the manager got a great deal on and includes
steals.
Bad Buys - These are players that I feel based on my 2010 projections that the
manager overpaid for.
Overall:
Jeff build a strong offensive team that has plenty of power and speed. Average will be a struggle for him to score big in along with RBIs. On the pitching front, Jeff has a solid bullpen that can hang with the best, but his starting staff which includes Liriano, Sheets, and Josh Johnson has risk written all over it. So much in fact that his other starters Yovanni Gallardo and Wandy Rodriguez aren't enough to make up if he has injury issues with those three guys.
Tony Cincotta, Blog Talk Radio Podcaster
HR/RBI- 5
SB/Run- 8
Avg- 5
45/60
Win/SO- 10
ERA/WHIP- 10
Saves- 7
Best Buys
Rod Barajas, C -$1
Julio Borbon, OF - $2
Mike Cameron, OF - $1
Bad Buys
Adam Dunn, OF - $18
Brian Fuentes, RP - $10
Michael Bourn, OF $15
Andre Either - $23
Overall:
Tony drafted one of the best and the most expensive pitching staff in the league. $133/$260 was invested into his staff
and it scores him 27/30 according to my grading scale. However, that is
allot to put into your staff and you can see its impact on the offense. Outside of Fielder, Dunn, and Either his squad lacks home runs and RBI.
He has plenty of speed, but it's "risky speed" with guys like Gardner and Bourn.
His average is lacking, but has potential to come out strong.
RotoRob, Tim McLeod
HR/RBI- 6
SB/Run- 7
Avg- 8
46/60
Win/SO- 9
ERA/WHIP- 7
Saves- 9
Best Buys
Erick Aybar, SS - $1
Andrew McCutchen, OF - $11
Franklin Gutierrez, OF - $3
Brett Anderson, SP - $11
David Aardsma RP, $9
Bad Buys
Kurt Suzuki C - $12
Paul Konerko, 1B - $6
Overall:
Tim had a very good draft. Across the board his pitching looks excellent
with a consistent number of quality pitchers who can chalk up wins and
strikeouts. He balanced his pitching with an offense based on speed and
average. He will suffer a bit in the home runs and RBI, but he has some
players that can out produce expectations.
To get more from Todd Farino, RC Rizza, and Rhett Oldham. Listen to our weekly podcast at www.blogtalkradio.com/fantasy-baseball-tonight. Listen to us LIVE every Wednesday at 10pm EST for 90 minutes of pure fantasy baseball talk.
Matt Wieters is one of a group of young hitters I'm excited to watch in 2010. Everyone knew last season that it wouldn't be long before Wieters was brought up to the big leagues. The wait wasn't long with Wieters making his major league debut May 29th. In an abbreviated season, Wieters compiled 9 home runs and 43 RBI in 354 ab bats at catcher. He provided the Orioles with an offensive spark with a .288 rookie average and started 84 games.
As the Orioles #1 draft pick in 2007, Wieters has done major damage in the minors. He consistently hits for power and supported it with a tremendous batting average nearly every year. He in smashed into a young and growing Orioles lineup with other emerging players like Adam Jones and Nolan Reimold. He will find plenty of opportunities for RBIs and see allot of good pitchers. Also, a often overlooked plus for the power hitting catcher is he's a switch hitter.
In the 2010 drafts, managers are paying high prices for McCann, Martinez, and Mauer. The M&M&M brothers are great as my friend Rhett Oldham says, but Wieters is a far superior value for his cost. In auction drafts he's going for roughly $13 and his ADP is 96th overall. Wieters will provide your 2010 fantasy team with excellent power and average from the catcher position, which gives your team the advantage. Most catchers are missing speed, average, and in most cases both. Wieters closes the gap for you with a near .300 batting average according to my projections. At 23 years old, Wieters is one of the best developed hitters at his age. The True Guru Projections: .299 BA, 20 Hrs, 80 RBI, 69 Runs, 0 SB
To get more from Todd Farino, RC Rizza, and Rhett Oldham. Listen to our weekly podcast at www.blogtalkradio.com/fantasy-baseball-tonight. Listen to us LIVE every Wednesday at 10pm EST for 90 minutes of pure fantasy baseball talk.
Cameron Maybin is only 23 years old (April 4), let's keep that in mind. He made his first major league appearance in late 2007 after being drafted by the Tigers in the 1st round. Over the past 3 years the Maybin has floundered a bit or at the very least hasn't lived up to expectations primarily because of off-field problems and coaching issues. That makes Maybin a fantasy baseball risk.
This year he is slated to start the season in centerfield for the Marlins, assuming he has a good spring. It will be his first chance to start and that will give Maybin the necessary stability and consistency he needs to produce excellent fantasy stats.
Maybin has tremendous upside and some may say I'm understating. Let's be honest, he only has 257 spread out major league at bats to grade him on. We haven't yet had a full and consistent season from Maybin and that is the gold in this sleeper. If Maybin can keep his head clear and out of trouble he will be stellar in 2010. He a gem pick late in the draft and should end up a 20/20 player if all goes well. Draft Maybin as your 4th outfielder.
To get more from Todd Farino, RC Rizza and Rhett Oldham, catch our weekly podcast at www.blogtalkradio.com/fantasy-baseball-tonight . Listen to us LIVE every Wednesday at 10pm EST for 90 minutes of pure fantasy baseball talk.
Rick Porcello broke onto the scene at the age of 20 during the 2009 season and never looked back. In his rookie season he made 31 starts with 171 innings. He had a remarkable season and showed tremendous poise at that age. I'm excited to see what Porcello will do this year with a full MLB season under his belt. Going on 22, Porcello should improve this season for several reasons one being familiarity with all the teams. He will also have an improved bullpen and offense, which should add to his win totals. He deserved his nomination for ROY, but it wasn't a perfect year for Porcello. In several bad games, he had problems establishing hit two fastballs that contributed to his high number of walks and some very bad innings. Improving his control will be the biggest improvement we'll see from Porcello this year.
From August 28th and on Porcello was great. He was 4-1 with a .ERA, 22 strikeouts in 42 innings. Porcello even improved his BB/9, which was 2.14 during that period as to 2.73 for the season. Porcello will be a great late round draft pick for your fantasy team. He will increase his strikeouts and decrease his walks. He will continue to develop into a far more dominant pitcher in his sophomore season. Draft Porcello as your number #3 fantasy starter, but expect a #2 starter performance .
To get more from Todd Farino, RC Rizza and Rhett Oldham, catch our weekly podcast at www.blogtalkradio.com/fantasy-baseball-tonight . Listen to us LIVE every Wednesday at 10pm EST for 90 minutes of pure fantasy baseball talk.
Live Fantasy Baseball Mock Drafts, Fantasy Baseball Player Rankings, Player Trade Calculator, Fantasy Forums and more ! at FantasyBaseballXtreme.Com
SP Wade Davis,Rays, Wade Davis isn't the type of pitcher who overwhelms you with his stuff, but he was an effective pitcher at the minor league level, and he continued to impress when he got the call for a major league audition in September last year. In fact when you compare his minor league numbers compiled over 6 seasons (3.28 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 3.3 BB/9, 8.7 K/9) to his composite stats over his six major league starts in late 2009 (3.72 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, 3.2 BB/9, 8.9 K/9), they are remarkably similar. Especially encouraging was Davis's ability to sustain his minor league trend of avoiding the longball. In 36 innings with the Rays he gave up only two HRs, and 14% of the flyballs hit off the 24 year-old righty turned into harmless infield outs. Davis primarily throws a 92 MPH fastball, but perhaps his best pitch is his 75 MPH, big-breaking curveball. The rookie makes an excellent fantasy pitcher to add in the late rounds of your mixed league draft.
OF Jason Heyward,Braves, - Jason Heyward entered the Braves farm system at the precocious age of 17, advancing rapidly to a limited AAA level audition at the age of 19 in 2009. Considered by many scouts to represent the best pure hitting prospect in the 2010 prospective big-league class, Heyward will be given a fair chance by the Braves to win the right-field job out of Spring Training. Judging from his minor league career, the left-side hitting Heyward has demonstrated an uncanny ability to hit almost equally well against both left and left-handed pitching. Through last year, Heyward had a .318 minor league average, while showing the type of power and speed that projects him as a possible 20HR/20SB player once he reaches the majors. More reasons for optimism concerning Heyward 1) his strong work ethic, and 2) the fact that he is an exceptional fielder with a strong arm. In early drafts, the aspiring right-fielder is going in the 24th round, but that will no doubt change if he gets the call on Opening Day.
As many experienced fantasy players know the key to winning
is value, value, value.
Many players – even the most seasoned – ignore the value
that middle relievers can present to championship caliber drafts. Fantasy GM’s
would rather grab a low-end 5th outfielder and stash him on the bench
than then use a quality middle reliever every day.
Middle relievers offer the potential for cheap pitching
stats that when combined with mid-to-late round starters can often equal or even
surpass the production of some of the first pitchers taken. Compare the
following pitching stats:
Comparison #1
IP
ER
SO
W
ERA
WHIP
Set A
239
74
208
17
2.79
1.13
Set B
242
74
189
17
2.75
1.17
The top stats represent new Phillies ace Roy Halladay. But
what about the second set of numbers? If you guess (which I know you haven’t)
the bottom numbers belong to the combination of Halladay’s teammate, J.A. Happ
and Cincinnati reliever Nick Masset. GM’s could have found the same production
Halladay represented as a 3rd-5th rounder last year
through waiver-wire pickups. Value, value, value.
Think that was just a fluke? Let’s look at two more
comparisons.
Comparison #2
IP
ER
SO
W
ERA
WHIP
Set A
217.2
70
171
14
2.90
1.18
Set B
224.0
68
160
14
2.73
1.21
Set A is San Francisco hurler Matt Cain while Set B is the
combination of Randy Wells and former New York Mets castoff (another one of
Omar’s astute moves) turned relief specialist Darren O’Day.
Name
IP
ER
SO
W
ERA
WHIP
Set A
230.0
86
197
19
3.37
1.15
Set B
236.3
81
210
18
3.08
1.08
Finally, the first pitcher is New York Yankees ace C.C.
Sabathia. Sabathia posted near Cy Young numbers but those stats are surpassed
by the vastly underrated Ted Lilly and lefty reliever Pedro Feliciano. Breakout
seasons by no-name middle relievers happen every year and fantasy owners seem to
turn a cold shoulder toward their underrated production. For instance, say your
fantasy team combines for a 3.75 ERA in 1300 IP. Good production but it could
have been improved by playing someone such as Jeremy Affeldt which would have
lowered your team ERA to 3.66 – which could be the difference between 1st
and 2nd place.
To get more from Todd Farino, RC Rizza, and Rhett Oldham. Listen to our weekly podcast at www.blogtalkradio.com/fantasy-baseball-tonight. Listen to us LIVE every Wednesday at 10pm EST for 90 minutes of pure fantasy baseball talk.
Papelbon is your quintessential stud closer. Every year you know just about what output to expect from him. Likely 38-40 saves, ERA under 2.00, and 75+ strikeouts. He is one of the more consistent, healthy, and reliable closers and worth a high draft pick. The only thing that needs to be considered with Papelbon is the secret innings limit the team sets for him to avoid wearing out his arm with "tired arm". That limit is assumed to be 70 innings and does help in keeping him healthy and rested all year. I do know that he will never pitch three games in a row and likely only three out of five straight games. However, the limit could impact your team near the end of the season where saves can mean life or death for your fantasy team. Papelbon is a hard throwing closers who pounds the high strike zone to get the outs and keeps the hitters thinking with his average splitter.
The True Guru Strategy: His ADP has him at the right spot. Personally I'd pass on him with better fantasy closers later in the draft, but if you want him round six is your spot.
To get more from Todd Farino, RC Rizza, and Rhett Oldham. Listen to our weekly podcast at www.blogtalkradio.com/fantasy-baseball-tonight. Listen to us LIVE every Wednesday at 10pm EST for 90 minutes of pure fantasy baseball talk.
This weekend will be the last time to participate in a mock darft before pitchers and catchers report. This is significant in the fact that all of us have been using the mock draft based on flat out projections and whatever sabermetrics, hunches, or hometown inside information you may have.
Because of this, I have limited my participation in mock drafts this off season because many people are only using the mock drafts to enhance a view point or to inflate a player's value to throw you off track. Playing head games in early mock drafts is a poor lesson in futility that I participate in as a bystander only.
But now the preseason is over and daily reports will be coming out of Florida and Arizona. The news will not change the minds of many that are in mock drafts but those in between players that will win your fantasy league for you need to be disected and scrutinized. Not only that but I have to look at the sure things of the early rounds as well. With that being said, let's look at some players that I am going to take a strong look at during the Grapefruit and Cactus League season.
DON'T FORGET ABOUT THE INJURIES
Albert Pujois had offseason elbow surgery and is said to be 100%. As a Cardinal fan I want to believe and he is the consensus first pick overall. Don't discount the power outage late in 2009, I want to see something that tells me he is ready to go and lead my team to the Yahoo shower.
Jose Reyes is a runner with bad hammies. I want to see some steals or at least him go from first to third like the Reyes of old.
Grady Sizemore is said to be fully healed from abdominal and elbow surgeries and has already resumed baseball activities. After a subpar 2009 season, I sure hope so.
Aramis Ramirez has an ailing left shoulder and did not have any surgery in the offseason. I want to believe but he is a Cub!
REHAB OF A CAREER-TAKE NOTICE
Brad Penny is under the watchful eye of pitching guru Dave Duncan. Can he demonstrate he is a pitcher and not just a thrower.
J J Hardy goes to the Twins with a new start and a damaged reputation. As streaky as they get but in 2007 and 2008 he had 50 home runs combined. Still alot of power and only 27 years old.
Garrett Atkins goes to the Orioles as the forgotten man. He averaged over 100 RBI a season for three years until 2009 and is looking for a fresh start. This one time keeper now has an ADP of 269.
David Ortiz is 34 years old, had a nice rebound, but is being looked at as an afterthought in most drafts. People draft him and then write in the chat room, "I had to take him here (ADP 181), didn't I." Usually silence ensues.
HE CAN STILL PITCH, CAN'T HE?!?!
Joel Pinero was a great story last year but now he goes to the Angels and the American League. Skeptics abound and Joel is getting no love.
Rich Harden also goes to the American League in the hotbox that is Texas. We all know the injury story, can he make past 150 innings, let alone 200. We will find out in August when it is 100 degrees in the shade.
Erik Bedard seems to be letting everyone know that his three-quarters of a season two years ago was just a fluke. Seattle resigns, let's him know he is the third or fourth starter with a much stronger team. Do you believe? Not right now. (ADP 215)
The Entire Reds Rotation Johnny Cueto (ADP 217), Homer Bailey (ADP 283), Edison Volquez (NR) , Aaron Harang (ADP 291), and Bronson Arroyo (ADP 308) Volquez says he will pitch in 2010 but with a rotation like this, I am not sure I want him too. The Reds think they will be better but someone will have to step up and be the man.
SOMEBODY SIGN ME PLEASE
Felipe Lopez fired Scott Boras. He might find a job now
Willy Taveras was release by the A's last week. Didn't he used to be a base stealer extraordiare not too long ago.
Carlos Delgado is old but still wants to play. Get in line
John Smoltz is old but still wants to play. Get in line
This list just scratches the surface but I love the intrigue of this season. This is the most volatile offseason I think I have ever seen. There just doesn't seem to be very many sure things in 2010.
To get more from Todd Farino, RC Rizza, and Rhett Oldham. Listen to our weekly podcast at www.blogtalkradio.com/fantasy-baseball-tonight. Listen to us LIVE every Wednesday at 10pm EST for 90 minutes of pure fantasy baseball talk.
Clayton Richard is a fascinating fantasy 2010 baseball pitcher. In 2009, Richard completed his first full season in the majors starting 38 games for two teams in two leagues. After coming over from the White Sox in the Peavy deal, Richard started 12 games for the Padres posting a 5-2 record and a 4.08 ERA.
I don't expect Richard to be a high strikeout or low WHIP pitcher this year. Richard pitches to contact and when he pitches his game, he cannot be beat. He uses an assortment of off-speed pitches to get batters out, and has a crazy change-up. He is naturally progressing and his pitches are getting more movement and speed difference. Add in the improvement being traded to a pitchers park and Clayton Richard makes a great sleeper.
At 26 (27 in Sept.), Richard has entered his the prime of his career and with a strong pitching coach Darren Balsley he will have a great season. Expect an above average number of wins, increased K/9, and a low ERA from Richard.
To get more from Todd Farino, RC Rizza and Rhett Oldham, catch our weekly podcast at www.blogtalkradio.com/fantasy-baseball-tonight . Listen to us LIVE every Wednesday at 10pm EST for 90 minutes of pure fantasy baseball talk.
Live Fantasy Baseball Mock Drafts, Fantasy Baseball Player Rankings, Player Trade Calculator, Fantasy Forums and more ! at FantasyBaseballXtreme.Com
OF Adam Lind,Blue Jays, The path to notoriety as a reputable power hitter certainly wasn't smooth for Adam Lind, but after three previous tries at the major-league level the young slugger finally settled in and produced an impressive stat line in 2009, finishing with 35 HRs, 114 RBI with a batting average of .305. Lind had always been a standout hitter in the minors, showing good patience at the plate, and ultimately finishing with a very respectable .318 BA, and 55 HRs in 419 minor league games. However, what was most surprising about Lind's terrific season last year, is that he had never shown 35 HR power before. For example, his minor league stats translated into about 22 HRs per season, while his pre-2009 major league numbers suggested 18 HRs over 162 games. If you are going to draft Lind this year, it will likely cost you a 4th round pick, but it may be realistic to expect a slight drop in HR's to the 25-30 level.
RP Leo Nunez,Marlins, - Leo Nunez pretty much inherited the Marlin's closer position out of default in 2009, but the results were generally good across the board - 26 saves, an ERA of 4.06, a WHIP of 1.25 and a .230 BAA. This of course is not to say that Nunez can now be considered a reliable closer, as he did have 7 blown saves last year. However, with the ability to throw in the mid-90's with decent control, he is off to a good start. The Marlins unloaded their 2009 opening day closer Matt Lindstrom in the offseason, and although they did recently sign Derrick Turnbow, Nunez enters 2010 as the clear favorite to close games for Florida. The really good news for fantasy purposes is that Nunez seems like one of the better values in drafts this year. He is currently being taken in about the 19th round, right after closers like Matt Capps and Kerry Wood.
The True Guru 2010 Projections: 37 saves, 4 wins, 3.60 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, 65 K
To get more from Todd Farino, RC Rizza, and Rhett Oldham. Listen to our weekly podcast at www.blogtalkradio.com/fantasy-baseball-tonight. Listen to us LIVE every Wednesday at 10pm EST for 90 minutes of pure fantasy baseball talk.
MLB Chances in 2010? Date?: 65% / September call-up
Drew Storen is as hyped as they come. A commanding closer in college for Stanford, Storen has shown a brilliance that is hard to find in a 22 year old player. The Nationals drafted him in the first round of last years draft.
Scouting Storen you can see that he has complete command of his fastball and a hard curve and both can easily get players out. His fastball tops out at 94 and that is hittable for a closer. His curve isn't the best closer pitcher. Storen will have to develop his rarely used changeup to be effective in the majors. Once developed Drew Storen could close for the Nationals and even be converted into a starter.
All the hype that I'm hearing is that by the end of 2010 Storen could be the Washington Nationals closer. I'm here to tell you to snipe the hype. This kid, this outstanding prospect will probably not see the field this year and at best a September call-up. The reason is simple, he's not ready. Getting college outs is a whole lot different from major league outs. He needs to get more muscle on his fastball and develop a sneaky changeup. Most MLB batters can spot a curve or fastball if they know that's all that is coming. Then he needs to mature, learn the system, and handle the pressure. All of that and the rest of the maturation process could easily take 1 year. Also, rushing the kid up to the majors could do more harm than good.
Don't get me wrong, if the Nationals take a major plunge and have massive injuries, sure they will bring him up. I know that there is a large group of people who seem to think that he will close this season. Here's my question to all of you, Why would the Nationals sign Matt Capps for two years?
We are already assuming he will be major league ready at some point this season, but that doesn't explain the Capps signing. Why sign a closer and why for two years? The answer is they don't know what they have and they have to find out. Will Storen close or will he start. Whichever it is, he should be an outstanding pitcher, just not in 2010.
To get more from Todd Farino, RC Rizza, and Rhett Oldham. Listen to our weekly podcast at www.blogtalkradio.com/fantasy-baseball-tonight. Listen to us LIVE every Wednesday at 10pm EST for 90 minutes of pure fantasy baseball talk.
Schafer came onto the scene last season and belted a home run in his first at bat. He cooled off after a hot start, but that was expected with a rookie. The reason for his downward spiral was his bad wrist, which he had surgery on to remove bone spurs in August effectively ending his season. He is back to hitting and hitting with full power. Schafer has a lot of competition for a starting gig in the Braves OF with Gregory Blanco, Nate McLouth, Matt Diaz, and Melky Cabrera. He’ll even have some pressure from top prospect 21-year old Jason Heyward. Still, Schafer looked great last year in his rookie season. I have no doubt that he will make the roster, unless the Braves choose to give him at bats in the minors. Either way he will come up at some point if he isn’t on the roster and he could give your fantasy team some much needed power and offense.
His best chance to make the roster is to out play Matt Diaz in spring training and that is very possible. My projections are very conservative and can change depending on his role. Schafer has the talent to be a 20/20 if he gets the playing time. You should be able to draft Schafer extremely late in the season, seeing his injury and shorten season went by quite last year.
To get more from Todd Farino, RC Rizza and Rhett Oldham, catch our weekly podcast at www.blogtalkradio.com/fantasy-baseball-tonight . Listen to us LIVE every Wednesday at 10pm EST for 90 minutes of pure fantasy baseball talk.
So far Bedard has being traded to the Mariners. Part of his problem has been injury compounded with lack of confident. Bedard is a talented pitcher, we've seen what he can do. In his first two years with the Mariners, Bedard is 11-7 with 162 strikeouts in 164 innings. He's pitched well, just not much over the two year span. 2010 will be the year he turns it around. Bedard is
finally healthy, feeling good, and has a real team around him. Good pitching, and energetic team always help a struggling veteran.
Going forward, Bedard is still recovering from season ending surgery to repair a torn labrum and in the off-season was denied arbitration by the Mariners. Eventually the Mariners wised up and signed Bedard to a one year deal. It’s likely he wouldn’t be ready to pitch until late May or early June, but when healthy he is an extremely effective starting pitcher.
At 31, Erik Bedard is still in his prime and with Cliff Lee and Felix Hernandez, he will help the Mariners dominate the American League West. The stars are aligning over Seattle and I expect big things for Bedard once he gets going..
I feel this player will achieve my projections through our formula based on 11 herbs and spices (its locked at Fort Knox). Of course we are assuming he stays relatively healthy for the entire season. Check out the rest of our breakouts here
To get more from Todd Farino and RC Rizza, catch our weekly podcast at www.blogtalkradio.com/fantasy-baseball-tonight . Listen to us LIVE every Wednesday at 10pm EST for 90 minutes of pure fantasy baseball talk.
Brandon Morrow came to the Blue Jays as part of the Roy Halladay trade and the Blue Jays may have gotten a steal. Morrow was a #1 draft pick in 2006 and quickly moved through the Mariners farm system. He was set to be the closer, but it didn't go well and his health allowed David Aardsma to take the job.
Now with the Blue Jays and 100% healthy, Morrow will try to establish himself as a stud starting pitcher. He will still have some health issues throughout the season as he and the Blue Jays balance his diabetes, but that won't stop him from finding success. Morrow has dominating stuff, including a 98-mph fastball and a knee-buckling curveball. The change of scenery and a new pitching coach should benefit him and expect a big season from Morrow. He could be the #1 or #2 started for the Blue Jays. The True Guru Projections: 15 Wins, 186 Ks, 3.42 ERA, 1.31 WHIP
I feel this player will achieve my projections through our formula based on 11 herbs and spices (its locked at Fort Knox). Of course we are assuming he stays relatively healthy for the entire season.
To get more from Todd Farino, RC Rizza and Rhett Oldham, catch our weekly podcast at www.blogtalkradio.com/fantasy-baseball-tonight . Listen to us LIVE every Wednesday at 10pm EST for 90 minutes of pure fantasy baseball talk.
Grady Sizemore had an injury plagued season, that was the worst of his career. Most of 2009 Sizemore was fighting off an injured left elbow and an abdominal strain that ended his season in early September. He had surgery on both and should be 100% come spring training. Sizemore is one of the more undervalued players this year. Last season he was a 1st round pick and this year he is falling to the third or fourth round. He no longer will bat leadoff with Brantley taking over there. Sizemore will either bat second or third and that bodes well for his RBI totals, but there won't be a lot behind him.
The Indians are in a rebuilding year, so it will be interesting to see how some of their young players turn out like Brantley and LaPorta. Overall the Indians offense is an interesting one and it should be able to put up some runs, especially with speed. All that is good news for Grady Sizemore, who is the captain of his team and will be in-charge of making sure those players develop and form a chemistry.
At age 27 and 100% healthy, Sizemore is a big time breakout candidate and should not be ignored past the third round and is an acceptable pick in the 2nd round. He will bring plenty of power and speed to your fantasy team, but will hurt your average.
Of course, there are whiney people out there who won't consider Sizemore a breakout. You guys go ahead and skip drafting him until the fourth or fifth rounds.
The True Guru Projections: .269 BA, 27 Hrs, 86 RBI, 103 Runs, 40 SB
To get more from Todd Farino, RC Rizza, and Rhett Oldham. Listen to our weekly podcast at www.blogtalkradio.com/fantasy-baseball-tonight. Listen to us LIVE every Wednesday at 10pm EST for 90 minutes of pure fantasy baseball talk.
Live Fantasy Baseball Mock Drafts, Fantasy Baseball Player Rankings, Player Trade Calculator, Fantasy Forums and more ! at FantasyBaseballXtreme.Com
SP Mat Latos,Padres, Following his call up by the Padres in July 2009, Mat Latos proceeded to notch 4 victories over his first 5 starts, including a one-hitter against the Reds in late July. Over these impressive 5 games Latos had an ERA of 2.43, a WHIP of .95, and was striking out about 7 batters per nine innings. Unfortunately, the 22 right-hander wasn't able to keep up pace in 2009, ending the season with a 4-5 record and an ERA 4.62, but don't let this discourage you from taking a chance on this promising young pitcher in this year's draft. Latos throws with good control, featuring a fastball in the 95 MPH range, and excellent complimentary pitches with good movement. During his time in the minors, Latos showed steady progress, culminating last year, where he finished with a 1.37 ERA, and a WHIP of only .747. Latos is currently going in about the 25th round in fantasy drafts. The True Guru 2010 Projections: 15 wins, 172 Ks, 3.30ERA, 1.26 WHIP
OF Jeff Francoeur,NY Mets, - After his last couple disappointing seasons with Atlanta, it's easy to forget Jeff Francoeur's auspicious rookie season back in 2005, when he hit 14 HRs in only 70 games. He followed up his 2005 rookie debut with a 29 HR campaign in 2006, and although his homeruns dropped to 15 in 2007, he still delivered over 100 RBIs for the Braves that year. In 2008, Francoeur reached the low point of his young career, batting just .239 with 11 HRs in 155 games. Right before the Braves gave up on the once promising power hitter in 2009 and traded him to the Mets, he was lumbering through another mediocre season, with just 5 HRs and a .250 average through 82 games. While he is clearly no sure thing entering 2010, it is encouraging that Francoeur hit .311 with 10 HRs in 75 games with the Mets last year, and seems like a great value in the late rounds of fantasy drafts.
To get more from Todd Farino, RC Rizza, and Rhett Oldham. Listen to our weekly podcast at www.blogtalkradio.com/fantasy-baseball-tonight. Listen to us LIVE every Wednesday at 10pm EST for 90 minutes of pure fantasy baseball talk.
Let me start this post by saying that the Blue Jays are a mess across the board. Their offense and bullpen lack defined role players and their starting pitching lacks experience. That being said, they have a whole bunch of possible closers with the addition of Kevin Gregg. I've been stating that I don't think Scott Downs or Jason Frasor make good choices at closer for the Blue Jays. Not only are both pitchers in the final year of there contracts, but Downs is better as a lefty specialist and Frasor as the primary setup man.
So what statement were the Blue Jays making by signing Gregg? It's says allot. First, management isn't confident in the backend of the bullpen and didn't like the choices they had at closer. Granted Gregg isn't the best closer and has knee issues, he will at very least compete for the job and help formulate and credible backend for the Blue Jays bullpen.
I believe at this point the job is Gregg's to lose. The Blue Jay's got the man they wanted. I veteran closer who if healthy can be a reliable 30 save closer. The problem for fantasy owners is he will never get that many saves. I project 22 saves for Gregg and only 27 save opportunities for the Blue Jays as a whole. The Blue Jays just lack offensive support to give them late inning leads.
To get more from Todd Farino, RC Rizza, and Rhett Oldham. Listen to our weekly podcast at www.blogtalkradio.com/fantasy-baseball-tonight. Listen to us LIVE every Wednesday at 10pm EST for 90 minutes of pure fantasy baseball talk.
Elvis Andrus started a blaze when he was announced as the starting shortstop in 2009, uncleeting veteran Michael Young. The hype about this speedster was there early in the year, and I had him as a sleeper. Andrus poses raw talent and energy that is still maturing. In 2009, Andrus stole 33 bases, but there was a more important observation in his stolen bases. In the first two months of 2009 he stole a total of six bases. Watching Andrus early in the year I saw he was hesitant or not sure about trying to steal a base. As he developed that skill, by June he stole more bases (7) then he did in the first two months of the season (6). The point, He's still getting better and we have more to see. Expect Andrus to steal 50+ bases in 2010.
As for batting, Andrus will improve his contact rate, which will certainly improve his average and runs. The RBIs will not be there for him, but every other stat should be very good. Andrus did display some power with six home runs in 2009 and the only thing I can say is this guy can hit a homerun at anytime. He will have the hot summer Texas air to help him, but he also can hit the ball out of any park. The word coming from Texas is that he's focusing on his contact, which would negatively impact his power numbers. I don't expect many home runs, but I will say this, don't be shocked if Elvis Andrus's power numbers amaze us come season end. The True Guru Projections: .288 BA, 8 Hrs, 42 RBI, 103 Runs, 50 SB
To get more from Todd Farino, RC Rizza, and Rhett Oldham. Listen to our weekly podcast at www.blogtalkradio.com/fantasy-baseball-tonight. Listen to us LIVE every Wednesday at 10pm EST for 90 minutes of pure fantasy baseball talk.
Last year was a miserable year for Jake Peavy. Not only was he unhappy with the Padres, but he wasn't happy about being traded especially to the American League. Then throw a long DL stint in there and it was a wasted year for Peavy.
2010 will be much better for the former 29 (in May) year old all star. He headlines a solid pitching staff for the Chicago White Sox and with his agressive style of pitching, Peavy should have no problem adjusting the AL hitters. Last season in three starts, Peavy was 3-0 with 18 strikeouts and a 1.35 ERA in 20 innings. He looked healed and back to the Jake Peavy we all knew from years past. One issue that I've heard around the fantasy baseball world was that Peavy was getting old. He's not even 29 yet. Peavy is in his prime and is ready for a monster season. If all goes well and Peavy stays healthy, he can compete for the Cy Young award.
As far as fantasy baseball relevance, expect lots of strikeouts and enough wins to make him a stud pitcher. His ERA will naturally rise going to the the American League, but overall he is one of the better values in this years draft with an ADP of 85.
The True Guru Projections: 16 Wins, 220 Ks, 3.15 ERA, 1.17 WHIP
To get more from Todd Farino, RC Rizza, and Rhett Oldham. Listen to our weekly podcast at www.blogtalkradio.com/fantasy-baseball-tonight. Listen to us LIVE every Wednesday at 10pm EST for 90 minutes of pure fantasy baseball talk.
As I prepare for my fantasy drafts this season, I tend to really work on the middle round decisions and the late round gems. After all, that is where you win your fantasy leagues. But as I turn my attention to the top of the draft board I am seeing some disurbing trends that threaten to take me out of my comfort zone.
The Top 25 used to be a place that was a very safe place to play. Sure we would debate if Chase Utley were a Top 8 or Top 15 player but we knew he would be there. We would talk about Ryan Howard's batting average or taking a pitcher early, almost always that was Johann Santana. The debates were interesting but in the end, the players were relatively consistent. Not anymore!
As I was looking at our rankings on FantasyBaseballSearch.com, and I was surprised at how some players have risen and fallen. Our site is not afraid of bucking the trend and our site administrator, Todd Farino, encourages counterintuitive thought. Some of the ranking raised an eyebrow so I decided to look at other sites and compare. To my astonishment, beyond Albert Pujois and Hanley Ramirez, no one agrees with how the players should be ranked.
Let's take a look at some sites, look at where the players are ranked, and dedicate a risk factor of one to ten on each of them with one being a safe bet and ten being a high risk selection. The sites I will use are:
FantasyBaseballSearch.com
Yahoo.com
ESPN.com
MockDraftCentral.com (Note: They determined ADP and is not necessarily a rank)
Remember, you don't win your league with your top four picks but you sure as heck can lose your league with bad ones.
JUSTIN UPTON, OF- D'BACKS Brandon Funston is working the man crush over at yahoo with a number 12 ranking. Mock Draft is at 26, ESPN is at 20, and we are #23. I know this guy is full of talent but I just can't see myself late in the first round stepping up and taking Upton as a cornerstone player. Great upside but that would flat out be scary. RISK FACTOR: 9
JOE MAUER, C -TWINS I guess I am the only guy that remembers Joe hitting the operating table like an ambulance chasing attorney! Disjointed Joe was constantly fighting an array of nagging ailments. Last years 28 dingers were awesome but he only had 29 homers in THE THREE PREVIOUS YEARS COMBINED! You know you are getting average but taking him 10 through 17, not me. RISK FACTOR: 8
JASON BAY, OF-NY METS Lot of debate on how CITI Field will affect Bay and just as important, the motivation after the big contract. FantasyBaseballSearch and MDC are almost identical at 24 and 25 but ESPN and Yahoo are at 40 and 38 respectively. I agree with the big boys on this one. I see much greater value further down the draft board and would pass on him anywhere in the first four rounds. RISK FACTOR: 9
DAVID WRIGHT, 3B-NY METS Ten Home Runs, five at home, five on the road, and I am supposed to take him as a bounce back candidate in the second round. Of the four sites, we are the most bullish at 27 Wright is far from a sure thing in the second round. I think he will bounce back but I will not pull the trigger in the first two rounds. RISK FACTOR: 7
TIM LINCECUM, P-GIANTS Great pitcher, Cy Young, filthy stuff, huge K numbers. What is not to like? How about taking him with your 8th pick overall. All four sites are right together so step up and take him in the first round. No way! I am not burning my first round pick on a guy that only won 15 games a year ago and has never won 20 games in his career. If I am taking a pitcher in the first round he has to deliver in ALL catagories. RISK FACTOR: 4
Finally, who is number three. I am still working through this as I slot my draft board and I am still undecided. Here are our choices:
AROD Mr Consistency is back, low steal total but with a full year is still pounding the rock. (YAHOO AND MOCK DRAFT)
Ryan Braun Check out his last three year numbers: .308/34/106/99/16. Yea, still has upside. I wish he played a different position, but I think this is the second best player in baseball. Hanley plays shortstop, so you have to take him number two, but Braun is a beast. (FANTASYBASEBALLSEARCH AND ESPN)
As you can see, the top tier of players is far from a sure thing. I hope we all guess right!
To get more from Todd Farino, RC Rizza, and Rhett Oldham. Listen to our weekly podcast at www.blogtalkradio.com/fantasy-baseball-tonight. Listen to us LIVE every Wednesday at 10pm EST for 90 minutes of pure fantasy baseball talk.
After a slow start last season, Huston Street came on and developed into a top 10 closer for the Rockies. He had some injury issues near the end of the season or his numbers would have been even better. Street could easily make the top five by the end of 2010. The Rockies are a formidable team with a slew of young players. Reasons I like Street are simple. He has a solid K/9, consistent, and he was born to close. At 26, Street is in his prime and heatlhy. Street makes a great #1 closer and he should have no problem.
The True Guru Strategy: Street is one of the highest value closers you can get. The NL West is notorious for tight games, so Street should have plenty of opportunities. If he stays healthy, Street will easily clear 40 saves. Currently his ADP is round 15. That is insane. He's a steal in the seventh round and a good take in the sixth. Wait as late as you can, but don't get burned.
On February 3, we will broadcast our premiere episode of 2010 and we'll do it with a bang. Join hosts Todd "The True Guru" Farino, RC Rizza, and new host Rhett Oldham as we get hot and heavy into fantasy baseball talk. Listen in and have questions ready for our special guest Lenny Melnick of Fantasypros911.com
To get more from Todd Farino, RC Rizza, and Rhett Oldham. Listen to our weekly podcast at www.blogtalkradio.com/fantasy-baseball-tonight. Listen to us LIVE every Wednesday at 10pm EST for 90 minutes of pure fantasy baseball talk.
Casey McGehee was a pleasant surprise in 2009. In 355 at bats, McGehee hit 16 homeruns and batted .301. While he never showed that kind of power in the minors, McGehee found a stroke and he was consistency hitting the ball out of the part. Our choice of him as a breakout player isn't because he's going to smoke his 2009 stats. I know many Sabermetrics guys are going to come out and tell you to avoid McGehee. They’ll use the standby excuses because the numbers don't add up like "he was lucky" or "he'll regress". While it is entirely possible that McGehee was lucky or that he could regress, I don't think it will happen.
At 27, Casey McGehee is in his prime and finally got a chance to play full time and we saw how good he was. I expect more of the same from him and even a bit better. While I expect his homerun rate will decline from 1:24 at bats to 1:27, his average should get better as he adjusts to the major league pitchers.
If you decide to draft McGehee, draft him late. He is an excellent choice for a late-round third basemen if you weren't able to draft a top notch one. He will give you power and average, but gives you zero speed. His current ADP is 237th pick, which puts him in the 20th round. I think grabbing McGehee anywhere after round 16 is a steal.
I feel this player will achieve my projections through our formula based on 11 herbs and spices (its locked at Fort Knox). Of course we are assuming he stays relatively healthy for the entire season.
To get more from Todd Farino, RC Rizza and Rhett Oldham, catch our weekly podcast at www.blogtalkradio.com/fantasy-baseball-tonight . Listen to us LIVE every Wednesday at 10pm EST for 90 minutes of pure fantasy baseball talk.
A's, - While fellow left-hander David Price received more publicity in 2009, it was Oakland's rookie Brett Anderson who ended up looking like the more accomplished rookie pitcher. Originally drafted in the 2nd round by the Arizona Diamondbacks, Anderson was traded to the A's in 2008, and had only 6 starts at the AA level before joining Oakland’s rotation in 2009. The 21-year old didn't disappoint, compiling 11 victories with 150 K's in 30 starts. Most encouraging was the rookie's ability to improve in the 2nd half of the season, lowering his ERA from 4.64 to 3.48, and his WHIP from 1.37 to 1.19 in the 2nd half. Anderson consistently throws strikes and his fastball is usually seen in the 92-93 MPH range. He also mixes in an effective 80 MPH slider about 30% of the time, and rounds out his arsenal with an excellent curve and solid changeup. Anderson generally pitches to contact, but still generated 7.7 K/9 while walking just 2.3 batters per 9 innings in 2009.
Tigers, - Scott Sizemore was relatively quiet during his first three years in the minors, compiling a .289 average and only 11 HRs in 248 games over the 2006-2008 timeframe. In 2009, after reaching the Tigers AA affiliate at the age of 24, Sizemore turned his game up a notch, hitting .307 with 9 HRs in only 59 games. After his promotion to the AAA level, Sizemore continued his offensive surge hitting another 8 HRs while maintaining a .308 average through 71 games at Toledo. Along with his good average, and recent HR power, Sizemore also offers some speed on the base paths, notching 58 steals in 378 career minor league games. With Placido Polanco being shipped out of Detroit this past offseason, and only the light-hitting Ramon Santiago seemingly in his way, Scott Sizemore has an opportunity to capture significant playing time for the Tigers at 2nd base in 2010. You should be able to snag Sizemore past the 25th round in your fantasy draft as a solid sleeper pick.
