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Although I tend to avoid the hot young prospects
in my drafting strategy (probably a function of my first mid-life
crisis dissuading me from players younger than me), I have to admit
there isn’t much in fantasy baseball as exciting as tracking the
mid-season call-ups—and there are no midseason call-ups harder to
project than starting pitchers. Sometimes you get Jered Weaver, and
sometimes you get Homer Bailey. Sometimes you’re a year early (Cole
Hamels, Mike Pelfrey), sometimes you’re right on time (Tim Lincecum).
If you’re an SP dork like me, you’ll want to be prepared for those
midseason starters that could have a major impact on their team—and
your team. Here are the Censor’s rankings of the top ten rookies who
have yet to throw an inning in the majors (thus excluding David Price,
who would be a clear #1 otherwise, as well as Nick Adenhart who would
also be in the top five) and will likely be in the minors to start
2009, but are certain to see a major league mound sooner than later.
1. Tommy Hanson – Atlanta Braves - Age: 22
2008 minor stats: 138.0 IP, 11-5, 2.41 ERA,
0.99 WHIP, 10.6 K/9
Hanson is #1 with a bullet on this list—in fact, some would argue he is
as good a prospect as David Price. He has consistently blown away
hitters on every stage he’s been on. In the Arizona Fall League, he
struck out a completely re-donkulous 49 hitters in 29 innings (winning
the AFL MVP), and has maintained similar strikeout numbers at every
level. His fastball dances around and he has an excellent strikeout
curveball. Hanson is a big guy, 6’6 and 210 lbs, which frequently
translates to stamina and innings-eating potential (John Lackey would
be a good comparison).
Hanson continued to strike fear into the hearts of the competition in
spring training, with a 2.45 ERA and 14 K in 14.2 IP. He was looking
good for the fifth spot until Tom Glavine re-signed, so now he gets to
start in the minors and tune up even further. He showed improvement in
home run rate, his one potential weakness, in 2008 and if that’s under
control we are looking at a future ace. Tommy Hanson joins Price as the
only player guaranteed to start the season in the minors who deserves a
spot on a mixed league roster right now, because Glavine’s health is
not likely to hold up very long.
2. Aaron Poreda – Chicago White Sox - Age: 22
2008 minor stats: 161.0 IP, 8-9, 3.13 ERA,
1.17 WHIP, 6.6 K/9
Poreda, another imposing physical pitcher (6’6, 240 lb), appears to be
a beefier version of Justin Verlander at this point. He has a flat-out
scary fastball that can touch triple digits; however, his lack of
mastery of secondary pitches is keeping his strikeout rate relatively
low. His fastball control is excellent, however, with a stellar BB/9 of
2.24 in 2008 and he is so overpowering that home runs have not come
easy—he only gave up six over the entire 2008 season. He is already
showing major-league quality longevity; in 11 of his 15 Double-A
starts, he pitched at least six full innings.
Ozzie Guillen said that if Poreda broke camp with the team, he would be
a reliever. On Wednesday he was sent back down to the minors after his
control got a bit wacked in spring training, which means he’ll have a
chance to work on those secondary pitches—but the reality is that
pitchers with this much raw talent are few and far between, and fellow
prospect Clayton Richard is probably just warming up Poreda’s fifth
starter spot right now. There’s no way he doesn’t see the majors in
2009.
3. Trevor Cahill – Oakland Athletics - Age: 21
2008 minor stats: 124.1 IP, 11-5, 2.61 ERA,
1.01 WHIP, 9.8 K/9
Cahill projects as a future Brandon Webb-type stud, albeit one who
could strike out quite a few more than Webb early in his career. Cahill
has shown a propensity to get ground balls and keep the ball in the
park, giving up only five home runs over the entire 2008 season. He
throws a great sinking fastball along with a totally nasty curveball
sure to have major league hitters floundering around at a pitch in the
dirt. The walk rate after his promotion to Double-A was a bit high, but
that’s common for pitchers at his level.
Cahill is undoubtedly the best Athletics prospect, even above Gio
Gonzales, and it’s very possible that he could be starting the season
in the majors after Duchscherer’s continuing injury struggles. He may
not be worth a Day 1 fantasy roster spot—after all he has no Triple-A
experience—but keep an eye on him if he gets some time in the minors,
because he is a polished pitcher who can throw in big games (witness
his 2.25 2008 Olympics ERA) and will be ready and willing to prove it.
4. Carlos Carrasco – Philadelphia Phillies - Age: 22
2008 minor stats: 151.1 IP, 9-9, 3.69 ERA,
1.35 WHIP, 9.2 K/9
Carrasco actually got significantly better after being promoted to
Triple-A for his last six minor league starts of 2008—he has fantastic
stuff, though his high WHIP shows a clear lack of control, and with
better movement on his fastball he is major-league ready right now
after three full seasons of 140+ minor league IP.
He has had a rough spring and it appears definite that he’s on his way
back to Triple-A,especially with J.A. Happ pitching so well, but no one
near the Phillies thinks that he isn’t ready to make an impact in 2009.
Just be aware that the Phillies will definitely be competing all the
way through 2009, so Carrasco’s opportunity to contribute may be
limited, and he may be called up but quickly put in a bullpen role.
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