By The Phantom Scout www.profantasybaseball.com

As we continue to delve into the intricacies of fantasy projections and who should produce this year and who won't, fantasy owners need to remember that projections are just that, projections. When drafts start, many fantasy owners put on the blinders and look at what a player might be projected for in the next season. Rarely do fantasy owners ever start to consider roster breakdowns, batting lineups and injury histories when they draft. Looking ahead into the 2009 season for the Toronto Blue Jays, you have to wonder who is really going to produce consistently this year. The lineup looks to be shaping up quite well as both Vernon Wells and Alex Rios look healthy and prepared for the season. For Wells, he will produce as he has in the past, forget the 2007 season, injuries for wells are an aberration. Rios took a rather large step back after signing a lucrative deal in the off season last year. It seemed as though he was trying to live up to that contract with every swing of the bat. He should rebound nicely this year. Rios picked up the pace last year towards the end of the season and showed the Blue Jays faithful a glimpse of what they could expect in the future and I don't think he'll disappoint. So here are my picks for fantasy stud and dud.

STUD: Alex Rios - It is difficult to try and pick between Rios and Vernon Wells this year, but Wells has started this spring with a hamstring injury, requiring an MRI, and might cause him to start off slower and less prepared than he have wanted to be. Rios was truly disappointing this past season as he struggled with even the most pedestrian pitching. He often looked as though he was trying too hard to produce and live up to the multi-year contract that he received before the season started. With all that being said, I am going with Rios. Rios has power and run producing potential and can hit for average. His speed is a definite plus and it shows in his base stealing potential, swiping 32 bags last season. If Rios rediscovers his power swing, evidence suggest that he has, he could easily put up a 30-30 season. Expect a .300 / 30 HR / 95 with 25-30 SB.

DUD: Scott Rolen - Stay away from Rolen. He continues to battle shoulder injuries and although he has been tinkering with his swing to make it more compact and quicker, it won't help him that much. For a position that requires power, Rolen has stepped back and his ability to hit for power has declined gradually over the past four seasons. I like Rolen and think he is a gritty player who would rather have his arm fall off than give up on his team. Unfortunately there is no fantasy statistic that favors the makeup of a player.

So, there you have it. The Blue Jays will not contend for the division crown this year but they have a good lineup and young talent is on the way up. Take Rios early in the draft and avoid Scott Rolen like hepatitis.

Team: Minnesota Twins
Bats: Right
Position: OF

Gomez had a tough rookie season in 2008. Not only was it his first full season in the majors, but he was traded to the American League. Everyone knows Gomez is a speed demon, but his average is a major liability. However, in 2009 we think his average will go up due to the fact that he has gotten settled in Minnesota and he will cross the 1000 at bats plateau this season. Last year his average improved 26 points in 2008. Also, speed players will take advantage of the turf in Minnesota and run out more infield hits. It does take time to master that skill. Gomez also showed some power belting 7 homeruns. Consider him a poor man's Jose Reyes, a very poor man.

Prediction: .270 average, 9 homers, 61 RBI, 89 runs scored, 44 SB

To get more from The True Guru and the other guru's Ryan Hallam and RC Rizza catch our weekly podcast at www.blogtalkradio.com/the_true_guru. Listen to us LIVE every Wednesday at 10pm EST.

Team: Minnesota Twins

Team: Los Angeles Dodgers

By Scout C.P. Staley (Pro Fantasy Baseball)

5 Reasons you can wait to build a pitching staff

These guys aren’t known as fantasy studs, but they have the potential to pitch like one. The best part? Most should be available after round 10, meaning you can use early round picks to build your offense and STILL have a solid pitching staff-as long as some of these pitchers make it onto your roster:

1. Ricky Nolasco-Nolasco was fantastic for the Marlins last year, ending the season 15-8 with a 3.52 ERA, 186K, 42 BB, 1.10 WHIP. His wins may fluctuate (10-4 pre All Star Break, 5-4 post All Star Break), but amazing peripherals after the break placed Nolasco among the top pitchers in fantasy baseball ( 95 IP, 3.29 ERA, 98 K’s, 12 BB, 0.99 WHIP, .232 opponent’s batting avg.). 25 other pitchers might be taken before his name is called on draft day, but Nolasco has a chance to pitch like a top 10 SP. Expect 14-16 Wins, 3.75 era, 160+ K’s and a WHIP south of 1.20.
   
2. Matt Cain-A quick look at Cain’s 15-30 record over the last two years and it’s easy to view him as a young pitcher struggling to find his way. A closer look reveals that Cain is on the verge of a break out. Aside from Wins/Losses, his 2008 numbers were terrific: 21 quality starts, a 3.76 ERA and 186 strike outs in 217 innings. Cain needs to continue to improve his control (91 BB), but with his skills, he could easily win 14+ games this year. Expect 14-16 Wins, a 3.70 era, 170 K’s and a WHIP around 1.30.


3. Scott Baker-Baker is on the cusp of becoming a household name in fantasy circles, but he’s still someone you’ll be able to grab in the middle rounds of your draft. Despite missing most of May, Baker ended the season with an 11-4 record, 172 IP, 3.43 era, 141 K’s, 43 BB, 1.18 WHIP. Factor in an average month’s stats to make up for the time he missed in May, and Baker would have been close to 15 W’s, a 3.60 era, 160 K’s, and a WHIP around 1.20. Expect that same level production in 2009.

4. Brett Myers-The last 2 seasons have been tough on Myers. He bounced between the starting rotation and the bull pen in 2007, then returned to the starting rotation and pitched horribly to start 2008 (3-9, 5.84 era). After the All Star break though, Myers found himself. Post Break he was 7-4, 3.08 era, 75 K’s, 21 BB, 1.16 WHIP; much closer to the way Myers pitched from 2005-2007. 14-16 wins, 3.80 era, and 160+ K’s are reasonable expectations for 2009.

5.Ted Lilly-Never flashy, and often overlooked, Lilly is the type of veteran that you don’t appreciate until he’s on your fantasy staff. Since arriving in Chicago in 2007, Lilly has averaged 16 wins, a 3.96 era, 179 K’s, and a 1.18 WHIP. Patience is required on days when the wind is blowing out at Wrigley, but at the end of the year, it will all be worth it. Expect 15 Wins, an era around 4, 160+ K’s, and a WHIP around 1.20.

5 Comebacks that can be had for a discount

1. Eric Bedard-Coming into last season, Bedard was among the top 5 pitchers in fantasy baseball. However, his season lasted just 81 innings before a shoulder injury shut him down for the season. There was some worry that Bedard had a torn labrum, but that was not the case. Instead, Bedard had off season surgery to remove a cyst from his shoulder and some scar tissue from around his labrum. So far this spring, Bedard has been throwing without pain, and looks like he’ll be ready to contribute at or shortly after the season starts. Keep an eye on his progress, because a healthy Bedard can give you 14-16 Wins, 190+ K’s, an era under 3.5, and a sub 1.2 WHIP.

2. Aaron Harang-Coming off back to back 16 win 200K seasons, big things were expected of Harang last year. Instead his 2008 season was a disaster. He finished 6-17, 4.78 era in 184 innings. Part of Harang’s struggles can be attributed to shoulder problems that flared up in July. To his credit, Harang tried to pitch through the pain, but ultimately landed on the DL. He showed signs of life after returning from the DL in mid-August, posting a 3.00 era, 25:9 K:BB ratio, and a 1.14 WHIP for the month of September. If he can regain the form he showed from in 2006 and 2007, Harang will be in line for a 15 Win, 180+K season.

3. John Maine-Maine missed 10 starts in 2008 due to nagging shoulder problems, and then had off season shoulder surgery to remove bone spurs from his throwing shoulder. Maine is not a fantasy ace, and has occasional bouts of wildness, but he can be a very useful fantasy pitcher that should be available in the latter half of most drafts. A return to his 2007 numbers (15-10, 3.91 era, 180 K’s) isn't out of the question, making Maine a nice late round choice.

4. Josh Johnson-Johnson missed all of 2007 and half of 2008 recovering from Tommy John surgery, but his performance in the second half of 2008 showed that he was all the way back. Johnson went 7-1 with a 3.61 era, 77 K’s, 27 BB in 87.1 innings after the All Star break last year. Still just 25, Johnson could take another step forward and establish himself as a solid SP2. If he’s healthy, a 14 W, sub 3.70 era, 150+ K, 1.30 WHIP season is within reach.

5. Fausto Carmona-Carmona was a big disappointment in 2008 after a breakout 19 Win season in 2007. A hip injury, coupled with serious control issues, kept Carmona from helping fantasy owners last year. Carmona seems to be over his hip injury, and his control issues may be solved as well. A flaw in his delivery, which contributed to his control problems, was reportedly fixed during the off season. If he’s healthy, 14 Wins, 130 K’s, sub 3.5 era, and 1.35 WHIP are all within reach. If Carmona is still available during the late rounds, he’s worth the gamble.
   

5 Surprises from the Second Half of ‘08

1. Randy Johnson-Post All Star Break numbers: 5-3, 2.41 era, 78 K’s, 16 BB, 1.05 WHIP in 86 innings. Johnson was outstanding during the second half of 2008. The concerns are well known: he’s 45, and has a history of back problems. Still, with reports that his back is healthy, and a move to pitcher friendly AT&T park, Johnson could be in line for a nice season.

2. Ubaldo Jimenez-Post All Star Break numbers: 8-3, 3.68 era, 78 K’s, 42 BB, 1.30 WHIP in 85.2 innings. Jimenez, who just turned 24, struggled in the first half of 2008. He owned a 4-9 record at the break, with poor control. That he managed to finish the year with a 12-12 is a testament to just how well he pitched in the second half of the season. The difference came from improved control. Jimenez cut his walks and increased his strikeouts. He ended the second half sporting an 8.23 K/9 ratio, and struck out better than a batter per inning in September with 35 K’s in 31 innings.

3. Paul Maholm- Post All Star Break numbers: 3-4, 3.40 era, 64 K’s, 31 BB, 1.28 WHIP in 87.1 innings. Maholm’s record after the break won’t get anyone excited but consider this: From August 1^st through the end of the season, Maholm went at least 6 innings in 9 of 10 starts (the other he went 5.1), and held opponents to less than 3 runs in 8 of those 10 starts. Playing for Pittsburgh means wins could be tough to come by, but Maholm could take another step forward and become a very useful fantasy pitcher this season.

4. Jorge De La Rosa-Post All Star Break numbers: 7-3, 3.08 era, 68 K’s 38 BB, 1.33 WHIP, in 73 innings. De La Rosa was traded to Colorado at the end of April in a deal that few paid any attention to and his 7.26 era before the All Star Break showed why. But something strange after the All Star Break. De La Rosa got a shot in the Colorado rotation, his command improved, and he started winning. The biggest difference? Opponent’s batting average. Before the All Star Break opponents hit .300. After the break, they hit just .228. If he can sustain his improved command, De La Rosa makes a good candidate to round out a fantasy rotation.

5. Bronson Arroyo-Post All Star Break numbers: 8-4, 3.47 era, 70 K’s, 27 BB, 1.19 WHIP in 96 Innings. One performance was stuck in the minds of Arroyo owners: 1 inning, 11 Hits, 10 ER, 1K, 1BB. That was Arroyo’s line from a June 24^th game against Toronto. He had already struggled in the first half of 2008, but this game proved to be the final straw for many Arroyo owners. Yet from that start until the end of the year, Arroyo was terrific. He went 11-4 with a 3.45 era. Usually thought of as an innings eater, Arroyo has been a surprising source of strike outs as well averaging 167 in his three years in Cincinnati. You could do a lot worse than Arroyo at the back end of your pitching staff.
   

5 Risky Pitchers

All five of these pitchers have value, and all 5 should absolutely be drafted. However, concerns surrounding each pitcher mean that if you draft them too early, you could be left disappointed.

1. Carlos Zambrano-Before the All Star Break, Zambrano was on the short list of Cy Young candidates posting a 10-3 record, 2.84 era, 78 K’s, 38 BB, 1.23 WHIP in 120 innings. However things fell apart in the second half as Zambrano battled tendonitis and inflammation in his right shoulder. He managed a second half line of: 4-3, 5.80 era, 52 K’s, 34 BB, 1.41 WHIP in 68 innings. Zambrano’s talent is undeniable: he threw a 9 inning, 110 pitch no hitter against Houston on September 14^th. However, even WITH the no-hitter, his era for the month of September was 7.08. Draft with caution.

2. Gavin Floyd-Floyd enjoyed a break out season for Chicago, finishing 2008 with a 17-8 record and a 3.63 era. However, Floyd’s performance down the stretch is cause for concern. Take a look at opponent’s batting average against Floyd for the last three months of the season:

July: .234

August: .268

September: .292

Not surprisingly, here is his era for those same three months:

July 3.34

August 4.29

September 4.81

Look for this trend to continue, and for Floyd to take a step back this year: 13-11, 4.40 era,

135 K’s, and a 1.35 WHIP.

3. Cliff Lee-Lee was hands down the biggest fantasy surprise of the year going from a fringe 5^th starter to Cy Young award winner. Of course, since his fantastic season came out of nowhere, what kind of value does Lee have next year? Prior to his disastrous 2007 season, where he made just 16 starts and was sent to the minors, Lee averaged 15 Wins, a 4.51 era, 144 K’s and a 1.37 WHIP. Taking that information into account, the most appropriate projection for Lee next year would be a slightly better version of Andy Pettite: 15 Wins, a 4.20 era, 160 K’s, 1.30 WHIP and 200 innings. Still useful, but not a fantasy ace.

4. Jake Peavy- Peavy is a widely considered a fantasy ace who is just entering his prime. As he demonstrated in 2007, Peavy has the ability to be a Cy Young caliber pitcher in any given year. However, a look at Peavy’s Home/Road splits show some reason for concern.
   

2006 HOME 6-7, 3.75 era, 1.15 WHIP, 137 K in 117 innings

2006 AWAY 5-7 4.57 era 1.35 WHIP, 78 K in 84 innings

2007 HOME 9-5, 2.51 era, 1.07 WHIP 139 K’s in 125.1 innings

2007 AWAY 10-1, 2.57 era, 1.05 WHIP 101 K’s in 98 innings

2008 HOME 5-5 1.75 era, 0.97 WHIP, 99 K’s in 98 innings

2008 AWAY 5-6, 4.28 era, 1.46 WHIP, 67 K’s in 75 innings

It’s not surprising that Peavy's numbers are better at pitcher friendly Petco Park. What

IS surprising is how poorly he has pitched away from Petco in 2 of the last 3 seasons. Add a cranky elbow (that forced Peavy to the DL in 2 of the last 3 seasons), and playing for perhaps the worst team in baseball, and doubt begins to set in. Again, Peavy is an extremely talented pitcher, but when drafting a fantasy ace, you want someone you don’t have to worry about.

5. Scott Kazmir- It’s easy to forget that Kazmir is still just 25 years old. As he demonstrated in 2007, when healthy, he’s among the best pitchers in fantasy baseball. However, Kazmir has dealt with elbow trouble that required stints on the DL in 2 of the last 3 seasons. Of added concern were his struggles pitching deep into games towards the end of last year. He pitched 7 or more innings just 5 times in 27 starts. Of those 5 starts, he pitched exactly 7 innings in 4 of them (the other was an 8 inning performance).

In fact, from July 26^th through the end of the season (including the playoffs), Kazmir never pitched more than 6 innings. He reached exactly 6 innings in 7 of his last 17 starts (5 of his last 12 regular season starts, and 2 of 5 post season starts). In that same span, Kazmir failed to go 5 innings in 5 of his last 17 (3 of 12 regular season games, 2 of 5 post season games). Kazmir has definitely has value, but be weary of counting on him to anchor your fantasy staff.

Jacoby Ellsbury and Heath Bell February 25, 2009

Live Fantasy Baseball Mock Drafts, Fantasy Baseball Player Rankings, Player Trade Calculator, Fantasy Forums and more ! at FantasyBaseballXtreme.Com

OF Jacoby Ellsbury,Red Sox, Of course, the big secret is out on Ellsbury, as he proved last year that he has the potential to become one of the more exciting base stealing threats in the league. Although he did struggle through a minor dry spell in June/July 2008, hitting only about .245 with 9 SBs during this stretch, he had an amazing May, with 18 stolen bags, and he finished the season strong, with 15 SBs in the last 2 months, and producing a .340 average in September 2008. As a left-handed batter, another interesting trend that emerged last year was Ellsbury's effectiveness against lefty pitchers, he actually hit .295 vs. lefties, compared to .275 versus righties. While this emerging Red Sox centerfielder won't help you much in the power and RBI categories, he compares favorably to Jose Reyes in terms of stolen base potential, and you should be able to get him in the 4th or 5th round.

RP Heath Bell, Padres, - Anyone who has played fantasy baseball for a while knows that trying to forecast the saves category is usually very tricky, and in some years you will be able to get them from fairly unexpected sources. Heath Bell could be one of those under-rated closers in 2009 who can pleasantly bolster your fantasy saves total. With the legendary Trevor Hoffman packing his bags for Milwaukee, Bell is considered the leading candidate to assume the closer role for the Padres, and he has a pretty good history of excelling in the late innings. Heath Bell normally comes at hitters with his 92-94 MPH rising fastball, and he complements this pitch with an effective slider. He works efficiently, consistently throws strikes, and has been durable over the past two years. If you need to reach for a potential closer late in your draft, it looks like Heath Bell is a nice value in the 15th round area.

Player Spotlights By Junkyard Jake JunkyardJake.Com

Team: Florida Marlins
Bats: Left
Position: C

John Baker will enter this season as the Florida Marlins starting catcher. At 27 years old (28 now), Baker made his major league debut last season and in 197 at bats he batted .299 with 5 homeruns. Baker has a great compact swing and by hugging the plate he will be able to extend his bat and get plenty of extra base hits. 19 of hit 59 hits were extra base hits. He has OK speed, but we don't expect too much running. He has solid power, but we expect him to hit more for average and RBI potential then anything else. Still, if you need a catcher late, John Baker is a guy to grab.

Prediction: .286 average, 14 homers, 61 RBI, 57 runs scored, 3 SB

To get more from The True Guru and the other guru's Ryan Hallam and RC Rizza catch our weekly podcast at www.blogtalkradio.com/the_true_guru. Listen to us LIVE every Wednesday at 10pm EST.

No Draft Prep, No Championship. The title says it all. Maybe I'm talking beneath some of you and certainly not above. Draft preparation is absolutely critical to your fantasy team. It single handily can end your fantasy season before it has even begun. OK, maybe I'm over exaggerating a tad, but I need to get you attention! Allot of managers this season will forget to properly prepare for a draft. You don't want to go into the draft room basing all your hopes and dreams on the decisions you will make from the draft room rankings? Are you loony, doped up on some wacky juice? Also, you don't want to depend on those out-of-date magazines with below average content. On the contrary, you don't have to kill yourself with months of research either to have a champion draft. This Todd-o-logue would go far to long if I covered all the draft preparation techniques, so I'll covered a few I think are indispensable and if I feel like it share more with you at another time, TBA.

1. Mentally Prepare - This is probably the most overlooked factor in draft preparation because its not on a piece of paper or in the news. I will always try to get to my computer at least 15 minutes prior to the start of the draft. At this point you have to relax, clear your mind of everything but baseball. You don't want anything on your mind during the draft that might delay your pick or distract you from making the right pick. Heck, if your the type that needs to do the "Something About Mary" thing to clear your mind and relax, then unload the gun. The clearer your head is, the more focused you can be on each pick.

The maximum amount of thought and consideration normally happens when it really matters, like when you have 60 seconds. Your pick should be made before you get to your turn based on a list you have prepared. If you don't believe me, in your next draft spot the guy who makes the bad picks because their mind was saturated with distracting thoughts and they were unable to focus on the task at hand. Those are the guys who run out of time and either get a computer pick or someone they really didn't want. That same type of guy will comment "I really didn't want this guy! My computer locked up on me!" No, your brain locked up on you.

Maybe he was thinking of paying bills, or in Ryan's case all the bad picks he's made directly before then or how I won his is home football league? Either way, the bad pick was made and your draft is damaged from that point.

You don't want to be THAT guy. You know, the guy who is probably very good at fantasy baseball but has to spend half the season repairing his team because he couldn't focus and concentrate on his fantasy baseball draft.

2. Have a ADP (Average Draft Position) and a Cheatsheet - Doesn't that sound so simple and so wise? Cheatsheets, ADPs they are like cereal and milk. C'mon Primetime, give me a Internet high-five at the speed of light for that one. If I took a survey today, I would find that most people probably just take a set of cheatsheets into the draft and depend on the preset draft ranking as a tandom. That's like having two sets of cheatsheets, how does that help except to give conflicting information.

I'm sure you will do alright with just cheatsheets as it's not a death sentence for your draft. However, if you combine it with a ADP and formulate the two into a rhythm Kids Incorperated style you will have a fantastic draft with steals throughout it. Everything has a rhythm to it. Think about it your car engine, air condition, fan, heart beat, and even a finely tuned draft. Just remember that the steal doesn't have to be one admired by the others in the draft. Let the season play out and determine what a steal is and not what the guys who you stole the pick from think!

To grab hold of the rhythm, your job from the beginning is to pick the right player at the right time nearly every pick. Sounds easy right? It's a tad easier said then done. As a matter of fact, it's rarely done for more than a few picks in a row, so its a big challenge. By using your handy dandy 100% trust worthy cheatsheet from your favor expert or yourself as a guide, start assessing where the players are ranked on the cheatsheet and then the ADP. For example, your cheatsheet might rank Matt Kemp 22, but his ADP is 40. That is a average variance, so its not much of a risk or surprise. Even better, Cliff Lee is ranked very low on allot of cheatsheets, say 35, but his ADP is at 70. Right there could be a steal if Cliff Lee performs at a high level like he did last year and you get him with the 68th pick.

The point is get your players at the time where it costs you the less, but gives you the most value. The only way to do that is to pit your cheatsheet against the ADP. Get a subscription to Mock Draft Central and know your ADP like you know your wife's dress size! Ahh, bra size?

The difference between winning and losing in fantasy baseball isn't based on just math, statistics, and timely pick ups, it starts with a solid foundation of research, focus and absolute preparation.

By Scott Berardi, www.profantasygames.com

Every fantasy season, there's one thing that few people seem to take note of, that eventually destroys them. And it's quite simple: The league settings.

Hopefully by the title I put on this, you don't mistakenly assume that I think you should be playing ethically or something. The opposite is true. Exploit everything you can. Lose friends if you have to. This is fantasy baseball we're talking about.

No, instead what I mean is that you should know the settings of your league like the back of your hand. Know the situations. Know the scoring categories. Because all the cheat sheets in the world won't help you when your crazy league uses holds instead of strikeouts and triples as the only hitting category.

Another problem, though, is that people who know their league settings don't know how to exploit them. Let's have a gander at some of the hot-button issues that can come up in custom leagues when the rules are tweaked.

Relievers. Some leagues only allow you to start a certain amount. Some count holds as a stat. No matter what, when the rules aren't your typical 5x5 standard joints, the odds are relievers are going to be effected in some way. But how? I'm glad I asked.

In a deeper league (like 18 or 20 teams and if you're playing with more than that you're a nutjob), as long as saves are counted, closers are going to be one of the most valuable commodities in the game. You should either target them as such or punt the category entirely, because with the talent spread that thin, most teams are going to be lucky to pin down one guy, much less two. Moreso than other leagues, this is going to require a keen eye on the waiver wire because consistent saves are just that rare.

What's that? You want a fantasy nugget? Try this on for size. Wait for it--wait for it--If your league counts holds, it greatly devalues your starting pitching. I never thought starters were worth much, but if you're in a 6x6 or something where the pitching categories look like K-W-SV-HD-ERA-WHIP, then you shouldn't be thinking about any of the high-priced starters. This one is simple math; in a normal 5x5 league, Tim Lincecum can help you in four of the five categories. 80% if you're a math major. In a league where holds count, that's another category where Lincecum, despite his amazing torque, can't help you. Which makes him less valuable. About 13% less, in fact.

Check the rules even closer to see what kind of minimums there are, because you might be able to virtually disregard starters by fielding a ton of cheap middle relievers and closers and dominating ERA, WHIP, HD and SV. Is this cheap? Yes. Is this effective? Yes. Especially in H2H.

Also make sure you check how many starters there are at each position. If your league only starts, say, 5 starters and 2 relievers, with say, 12 teams, then you can afford to wait on closers because you can figure that only 24 closers can start, maximum, at a given time. If someone wants to grab four closers, that's their problem. You can trade when they find out Frank Francisco and Bobby Jenks are worthless to them.

In a league like that, too, the dirty little secret is grabbing closers with SP eligibility. Those guys are worth their weight in gold.

Rules differ in other places too, especially in On-base percentage versus batting average. This makes a huge difference in the case of one country-strong new Washington National. The biggest fantasy knock on Adam Dunn is his low batting average. When you replace it with his upper-tier OBP, suddenly he's Albert Pujols. People don't seem to notice this.

Just like in the case of pitching, when there are extra categories (like a 6x6 league), it changes some players' value drastically. Let's say your extra category is OPS. All of a sudden, guys like Kevin Youkilis and Grady Sizemore are monsters that get on base under your bed while you sleep.

There are countless examples of common non-standard settings that throw a wrench in even the most meticulously drawn up cheat sheets. Most (if not all) of the big sites for fantasy baseball allow you to sort players by the points they would have put up last year in your league, so take advantage of that. On top of all your research, just make sure you take a glance at the settings and notice where you can take advantage.

Good things can happen to you when you play by the rules.

Team: Florida Marlins
Bats: Left

Position: 3B

Once the most feared power hitter in the minors while in the Angels' farm system, back injuries and a horrible batting average finally caused Anaheim to part ways with him. Catching on with the Marlins, McPherson has reinvented his career in the same mold as before.....as a tremendous power hitter. In 2008, Dallas crushed 42 balls over the fence at AAA in just 127 games. While his average was stalled in the lower .200s in the few chances he got at the major league level, McPherson was able to hit .275 last year. Now, there is no guarantee that he will see the majors this season, Jorge Cantu will play third and the Marlins look to start the year with rookie Gaby Sanchez at first. However, if one of them were to struggle or go down with injury, either of which is possible, McPherson will be on the first plane to Florida and immediately be in the starting line up. If that were to happen, a major power hitter would be in the free agent pool and you would be wise to try to make that move. If he can stay healthy and catch a break or two, McPherson could get his second chance at the major leagues. A little more polished and a little more mature, he would certainly look to make the most of that opportunity.

Prediction: .271 average, 25 homers, 71 RBI, 56 runs scored, 99 games

To get more from The True Guru and the other guru's Ryan Hallam and RC Rizza catch our weekly podcast at www.blogtalkradio.com/the_true_guru. Listen to us LIVE every Wednesday at 10pm EST.

Team: Cincinnati Reds
Bats: Left

Position: OF

After a fairly successful minor league career, Chris Dickerson joined the Reds on August 12th and really never stopped hitting. Dickerson got off to a hot start, as he had six hits, a homer, and steal in his first three games. In his 31 games he hit .304, six homers, drove in 15 runs, and stole five bases. So many fantasy players who are out of their race stop paying attention in the last month or so of the season, so many might not be hip to the kind of impact that Dickerson had. There is a strong possibility that Dickerson will hit second for the Reds this season, which would be ideal for his fantasy production. He will be able to drive in a decent number of runs, steal some bases, hit for a little bit of power, and score a ton of runs. If you are wondering if his numbers are for real, go back to his minor league career, and you will see that this was not smoke and mirrors. Before his call up Dickerson had hit 11 homers and stole 26 bases in his 97 games at AAA-Louisville. The batting average might be a little bit high to hope for again, but Dickerson certainly has the talent to be a potential 20/30 player and a guy I would like to have as a low end third or high end fourth outfielder. He should certainly produce again and is a great guy to target later in drafts.

Prediction: .279 average, 21 homers, 71 RBI, 82 runs scored, 27 steals

To get more from The True Guru and the other gurus Ryan Hallam and RC Rizza catch our weekly podcast at www.blogtalkradio.com/the_true_guru. Listen to us LIVE every Wednesday at 10pm EST.

Team: Seattle Mariners

Team: Atlanta Braves

Team: Boston Red Sox
Bats: Right
Position: C

This is probably no surprise to anyone reading this, but Jason Varitek is done as a fantasy player. As a Red Sox fan it is sad to say, but he has little left to offer from a offensive standpoint. Even the Red Sox feel the same way as they barely signed him back and were trying to trade for or sign other catchers. Varitek's primary skills are behind the backstop, and not in the batters box. We expect Varitek to barely see 400 at bats. He will get frequent rests and they will pitch hit for him much more often this year.

Prediction: 9 Hrs, 40 RBI, 33 Runs, .238 Avg

Team: Kansas City Royals
Throws: Right

Position: SP

When Gil Meche signed a five year, $55 million contract two seasons ago, no one thought that he was worth that kind of money. However, if you take away his win-loss record, his other statistics haven't been that bad. He has been very durable, and his wins and strikeouts have been going up. Meche was especially good in the second half of the season, as he was 11-3 after June 10th. Fantasy players will be looking at him and the slowly improving Royals as a possible third or fourth pitcher on their rotations. We urge you not to look at Meche too soon. He has had a couple decent seasons for the Royals, but his previous four years his ERA was between 4.50 and 5.09, and he wasn't striking people out at nearly this rate. I know some pitchers struggle in the beginning of their careers and then eventually figure it out, but Meche is 30 years old not the time when most pitchers get better. The Royals might have made some moves to improve their team, but Meche is still a average to below average pitcher and should only be considered in the final rounds of drafts.

Prediction: 10-14 record, 4.56 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, 165 Ks, 85 BBs

Troy Tulowitzki and Chien-Ming Wang February 21, 2009

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SS Troy Tulowitzki,Rockies, After his breakout season in 2007, where we saw Colorado's young SS hit .291 with 24 HRs and 99 RBIs, Tulowitzki and his unlucky fantasy owners suffered through a dreadful 2008, where he missed over 60 games with quadriceps and hand injuries and finished with only 8 HRs, 46 RBIs and a disappointing .263 average. As a consequence, Tulowitzi has gone from an approximate 4th round fantasy pick in 2008, to around a 9th round pick so far in 2009. At that kind of ADP, Troy Tulowitzki makes an excellent player to target in the mid-rounds of your draft.Word is that he is almost fully recovered from his troublesome quadriceps injury and there is every reason to believe that the 24-year old can recapture the productivity we saw out of him two years ago. Our early projections have Tulowitzki hitting over .280, with 19 HRs and about 80 RBI in 2009.

SP Chien-Ming Wang, NY Yankees, - Chien-Ming Wang was cruising along as his usual productive self in 2008 until he was afflicted with a foot injury before the All-Star break, and forced to miss the remainder of the season. Understandably, he is presently being ignored in many fantasy drafts, typically going after the 16th round. At this kind of ADP Wang makes an ideal addition to your fantasy pitching corps, as a value pick who can easily deliver 15 plus wins. When Wang is on, he throws a pretty good combination of pitches consisting of a power sinker, and a late-breaking slider. His sinker is considered one of the leagues best, and it allows him to work deep into many games by virtue of the groundouts he produces. While he usually won't produce more than 4-5 strikeouts per game, Wang still looks like a great value player to grab in 2009 for Wins, a sub-4 ERA and good WHIP ratio.

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Team: Atlanta Braves
Throws: Left

Position: RP

Back when he was on the lowly Pirates, Mike Gonzalez was quietly one of the better relievers in all of baseball. For three straight seasons he posted an ERA of 2.70 or better, and his last year in Pittsburgh he was a perfect 24 of 24 in save opportunities. Then, he went to Atlanta and it has all been downhill from there. He was off to a stellar start before an elbow injury derailed his season, and it required Tommy John surgery. Gonzalez missed an entire year of action before coming back to pitch late in 2008, but he wasn't nearly as effective. He didn't blow too many saves (14 of 16), but his walks and ERA flew through the roof. I know the cliche about pitchers coming back from Tommy John is that in the second year they are back to normal, but it is still a very risky proposition. He seems to be higher up people's draft boards than he should be, as he is being drafted just after some pretty reliable closers. He isn't going among the elite, but higher than a guy with an over 4.00 ERA last year should be. He appears to have the job locked down, which is one positive, but think of this. Are you sure he is fully back from the surgery, and ready to make 70 appearances? How good are the Braves? Did they really do anything to make you think that they will contend this offseason? What, bringing back Tom Glavine is exciting? Lowe and Vasquez are OK, but that doesn't make them much more than a .500 team. Gonzalez will get some saves, but he won't get to 30, and his other statistics won't help you win any categories.

Prediction: 3.74 ERA, 56 Ks, 24 saves, 1.34 WHIP

Team: New York Mets
Bats: Switch

Position: 2B

It was a long time ago, but this was a guy who once stole 62 bases in a season. Castillo was one of the more feared leadoff hitters when he was with the Marlins, and a top 5-7 option at second base in the prime of his career. A few years, injuries, and cold streaks later, Castillo is teetering on the brink of fantasy irrelevance. We are considering him a bust this year because it still seems that fantasy players are thinking of his old days and the fact he plays a shallow position. I am here to tell you to push him over that irrelevant cliff. The Mets seem to be hell bent on giving him a chance to redeem himself this season (and earn his four year, $25 million contract), and have even talked about him leading off. Here are a couple of reasons to stay clear of Castillo, even though he plays a position with a limited number of good options. First, he is constantly hurt. He played in just 87 games last year, and hasn't played 150 games since 2004. Second, he just doesn't run anymore. Since stealing 48 bases in 2004, he has only gotten back to 25 once since then, and three of the last four years he has failed to even steal 20 bags. Even if the Mets bat him at leadoff, which I will believe when I actually see it, Castillo is still not worth a draft pick, even in the last couple rounds. His average is usually in the .290s, which is OK, but it isn't enough to compensate for a complete absence of power (11 HRs in the last four years), very few RBI, and 20 steals or less. Even at the end of your draft, there are better options than Castillo

Prediction: .256 average, 2 HRs, 41 RBI, 22 steals, 54 runs scored

Team: Baltimore Orioles

Team: San Diego Padres
Throws: Right

Position: RP

It is never easy to be the guy who follows a legend. You always want to be the guy to follow the guy who follows the legend. Well, Heath Bell will follow the legend of Trevor Hoffman in San Diego. I understand that Hoffman was no longer an option for the Padres, but perhaps they could have made a better choice than Bell. He does get good strikeout totals, but only once in his career has his ERA been under 3.33 and for a relief pitcher that isn't very good. San Diego has also been relying heavily on Bell in the past couple seasons (155 appearances in '07 and '08) which COULD eventually cause some strain on his arm. On top of the fact that his stats don't jump off the page at you, but the Padres have pretty much dumped everyone who makes any money or has any time spent in the majors, or has any record of success (outside of Jake Peavy and Adrian Gonzalez). This doesn't lend itself to a ton of save chances for Bell. It is going to be a long year in San Diego, and unless there are very few closers left I would stay away from drafting Bell.

Prediction: 3.19 ERA, 23 saves, 75 Ks, 1.31 WHIP

Team: Philadelphia Phillies
Bats: Left

Position: OF

Ibanez has been a fairly consistent hitter over his career, and has barely gotten the recognition he deserved. He has often hit in the .280-.290 range with 20-30 homers and has driven in over 100 runs in three straight seasons. What? This doesn't sound like a post calling someone a bust? Oh, just wait. Regardless of this career of production, Ibanez is now going to be 37 years old in June and old age doesn't miss anyone (except for Barry Bonds and Roger Clemens, but that is a whole other story). He has hit 23 homers or less in five of the last six seasons, and he has been striking out more lately than earlier in his career. He is going to a great hitters park in Philadelphia, but he will now garner some attention from pitchers than he did in the baseball wasteland that is Seattle. Although he will most likely still produce, you should expect a downturn from his statistics from a year ago.

Prediction: .275 average, 20 HRs, 82 RBI, 81 runs scored

Dexter Fowler (S/R) -- Rockies -- There are few players in major league camps this spring that excite me as much as Dexter Fowler. He has all the ability of a young Ken Griffey Jr. with that same likeable personality. He is the Rockies CF of the future and should win the job outright out of spring training. Fowler has great awareness at the plate. His ability to take tough pitches, shorten up his stride, go the opposite way and lay down the surprise bunt are mature beyond his years. Fowler hit .335 witih a .431 OBP and .515 slugging at AA Tulsa last year while swiping 20 bags as well. He has Jose Reyes like ability to hit for double digits in 2b, 3b & HR's year in and year out. His power has been slow to come but at 6'4" and just 190 lbs. he has plenty of filling out to do and with that projects added pop. But as long as he is getting on base and using his plus speed to steal bases and score runs the Rockies nor you who take a chance on him in fantasy drafts will be disappointed.



Travis Snider (L/L) -- Blue Jays -- Nobody rose through the minor leagues in 2008 like Travis Snider. He began the season in High A ball and after making stops at both AA and AAA found his way into the starting lineup on the big league club. Then all he did there was hit .301 with 2 HR's and 13 RBI in 73 AB's for the Blue Jays. Built like a spark plug, Snider will become a true major league power hitter very soon. The only question is whether Toronto will give him that chance right out of the gate in '09 or send him to AAA Las Vegas where Todd Farino can sit in the outfield party deck and haul in Snider's HR's? Either way he will find his way to Toronto this season without a doubt. Many scouts believe Snider's swing and ability to go the opposite way will allow him to hit for a high average but I disagree with that. Most of his power numbers are to the pull field and even more importantly against RHP. Left handers have shown they can get him out especially with low off speed pitches which he chases often. Snider will hit the ball out of the ballpark and for that ability alone deserves to be one of the earlier outfield prospects taken fantasy drafts.



Drew Stubbs (R/R) -- Reds -- This is going to be a critical season for the Cincinnati Reds organization. They have themselves a wealth of young viable talent but a manager who prefers retreads like Jerry Hairston Jr., Willy Tavares and Jonny Gomes. Meanwhile talented young prospects such as Jay Bruce, Chris Valaika, Adam Rosales and Drew Stubbs waste away in minimal roles or in the minor leagues. Stubbs is a plus-plus runner with outstanding base stealing and defensive abilities. He widened his stance last year and saw a tremendous bump in making contact and hitting for high BA. Stubbs is already 24 years old and ready to take the next step in his career and that should be in setting the table in the #2 hole for guys like Jay Bruce and Joey Votto but it will take quite a showing this spring to force Dusty Baker's hand into allowing that to happen.



John Raynor (R/R) -- Marlins -- This is where you can assert your dominance in a fantasy league draft. Raynor is not on anybody's radar heading into spring training and that is just plain ridiculous to me. It seems that most fantasy baseball experts either don't want to do their homework or just live off of ESPN or Baseball America's evaluation of young talent. Raynor is a kid on the come but without the hype of fellow teammate Cameron Maybin. At 25, Raynor has out developed the minor leagues by a long shot and is awaiting his natural place as the leadoff hitter for the Marlins in 2009. He has great patience at the plate and extra base ability though he does strikeout more than he should for a top of the order guy. Most notable is his crazy, and I mean crazy base stealing ability. Raynor has stolen 123 bases in just 3 minor league seasons. He was named the South Atlantic League MVP in 2007 and has hit for the cycle twice in two seasons including in the Arizona Fall League this winter. The bit test will come in camp to see how well he has recovered from a broken wrist this offseason and if ther are any ill-effects as a result. Keep this guy on your radar!



Seth Smith (L/L) -- Rockies -- Smith has has an interesting ride since being Eli Manning's backup QB at Ole Miss. He now has the simple task of replacing Matt Holliday in LF for the Rockies. While Smith has zero chance of replacing Holliday's number all by himself, he does offer a sweet swing fromt the left side and shares Holliday's ability to get on base. While I don't see him hitting for a high average I strongly believe Smith will go for 25+ HR's in the big leagues. He hits with authority to all fields and will murder mistakes made down in the zone. The LF job is all his and the Rockies will give him some time to mature into the quality hitter they believe him to be. Big upside potential in OBP & HR's out of this young left-fielder.


Those are a few of the guys I have on my radar heading into spring training. What are your thoughts? Agree? Disagree? Post your comment below or email me at jeff@fantasybaseballsearch.com

Expert mock drafts are the latest trend over the past few years. Alex Rodriguez would call them "fashionable" to say the least. Of course, maybe they are the designer steroids for fantasy drafting? Over the past few years, the art of gathering 12 or more experts in the industry and watching them battle it out over 23+ rounds of fantasy baseball drafting is all the rage (no pun intended) . Each pick is carefully considered like a Russian chess match and all the participants are trying to claim check mate with each pick. For the novice to intermediate fantasy manager, expert mock drafts are a wealth of knowledge and useful information. Of course, this is only possible when the experts draft as if it was real world.

I've read some disturbing revelations on blogs that everyday fantasy managers are starting to look at expert mock drafts as jokes. They claim that experts are afraid to use their true draft strategies for many reasons including not giving up their methods or secrets. Another reason I've read is experts don't like to go outside the lines because the draft will be analyzed and examined by so many that it may hurt their reputation. I'm sure I'm leaving out a few other reasons, but you get the point.



I have to agree with the bloggers that those are legitimate concerns of the managers analyzing these drafts for valuable insight. Heck, its' even been discussed in our podcast chat room. Now, I take my expert mock drafts seriously. The only time I go off my strategy is when I want to make a point with a pick. I'll take a guy I probably wouldn't take with that pick in a real world draft, but I do it to make a point on the value of that specific player. I will always be prepared and draft to be the best of my abilities. I will always draft according to my strategy and not go along with the ADP as to not risk looking bad. Like last year, one site puts out a report that Albert Pujols might have surgery and all of a sudden 10 or more web sites are saying Pujols isn't first round material going along with the trending data. Bad advice obviously, and great if you stuck to your guns and drafted him later than usual cause he fell to you.

Now there are some nominee's for Nimrod of the year because of their impressive decisions on how to execute a expert mock draft. These Nimrods or dormin's if you like to it backwards or NimrodEH! in Pig Latin. Actual Nimrodonian experts as I refer to them that will use an expert mock draft as a testing ground for a risky not plausable draft strategy they have devised in their evil lair in expert LaLa Land. Now, that is perfectly A-OK if we are just in a random mock draft, but this is an expert mock draft! There could be novices that are so green they barely know all the roster spots, categories, let alone a sensible draft strategy. So they watch the best-of-the-best go at it, hoping to reach their impossible dream of a championship. Then one of the experts, one of the best-of-the-best drafts 8 pitchers in the first 8 rounds. Wow, please take a moment and ask yourself, what was the Nimrod thinking? This man who clearly is Nimrodonian in every aspect basically just screwed up an entire expert mock draft that the other 11 experts were taken very serious and really ended up making the whole draft a joke. Allot of confused watchers went home that night thinking, what the heck was that all about? That was experts?

I'm sure this expert learned plenty from trying the strategy in a controlled atmosphere, but is this a serious strategy you would ever deploy in a real draft? My, my, my...

Again I stress, practicing strategies is smart, but practice then execute to the public, not the other way around. I think all of us "experts" enjoy being invited and participating in expert mock drafts. Certainly I feel a responsibility to not only draft my proven strategy, but to also draft responsibly. Especially knowing that others are trying to learn from these drafts. If we take expert mock drafts seriously, then they will take them seriously. I for one want to restore the credibility of expert mock drafts. Please for the love of all humanity, no Wacko Jacko draft strategies at expert mock drafts anymore. Can we stop giving good advice, that is really bad advice. Can we stop thinking that in order to be the best expert that we must be creative and spunky with our craziest strategies. Slow down there James Dean. I promise you are the only Rebel without a cause who thinks that a risky experimental strategy during an expert mock draft is a cool idea. Flip your collar down and go home.

4/5 Stars

Team: Atlanta Braves

http://www.blogtalkradio.com/the_true_guru

Team: Texas Rangers

Team: Kansas City Royals
Bats: Left

Position: 1B

Once a top prospect for the New York Mets, Jacobs has come into his own over the last couple of seasons, especially in the power department. In 141 games in 2008, Jacobs hit 32 homers and drove in 93 runs. The thing that will keep Jacobs available in your drafts until very late is his batting average. Since first coming to the majors in 2005 when he hit .310, Jacobs average has been steadily declining, bottoming out at the .247 he hit last season. While he might look like a poor man's Adam Dunn, at just 27 years old, Jacobs still has time to improve his batting eye. Over his minor league career, Jacobs consistently hit better than that, and if he could ever get his average to around the .275 range, he is a fantasy steal. There's no doubt that his power is legitimate, and he will most likely be hitting cleanup for the Royals. He likely won't be drafted until around the 19th round according to MDC, and even if his average doesn't improve he should be a great bench option in case of injury.

Prediction: .265, 38 homers, 98 RBI, 87 runs scored

Team: Cincinnati Reds
Bats: Left

Position: OF

Considering the way that some top prospects fall on their face when they come to the majors (yes you, Alex Gordon), Jay Bruce's rookie season was a fairly successful one. In just 108 games, Bruce was able to pound out 21 homers and drive in 52 runs. The one bad part of his first campaign was his .254 batting average, which was considerably lower than was expected, and he struck out 110 times in those 108 games, which kind of was expected. There is a whole bunch of good news though, if you are thinking of drafting Bruce. First, he will just be turning 22 right when the season starts. That means that there is plenty of time for him to adjust to life in the majors and improve. With the expectations of being a top prospect, I'm sure there were times that Bruce was pressing to be the best that he could and tried to over do it. Second, his average over his final year and a half in the minors was always over .300, highlighted by his final 49 games at AAA in 2008 when he hit .364. Even more good news is that he hit 10 homers over that limited action. Bruce has all the makings of a .300 hitter with 30-35 homers, and well over 100 RBI. He might not quite hit that level in 2009, but he should get close, and if he did meet those numbers not many of us would be surprised.

Prediction: .293 average, 29 homers, 96 RBI, 4 steals, 90 runs scored

Team: New York Mets

Labels: 2009 sleeper, daniel murphy

Team: Houston Astros

Team: Texas Rangers

Team: Philadelphia Phillies

Team: Arizona Diamondbacks
Bats: Right

Position: 3B

There is one thing that you can not take away from Mark Reynolds, and that is his raw power. The guy knows how to put baseballs in bleachers. Unfortunately, his plate discipline is down right embarrassing. In his rookie season, Reynolds hit 17 homers and 62 RBI, but he struck out 129 times in only 111 games. His power increased in 2008 when he connected 28 times for 97 RBI in 152 games. That is the good news. The bad news is his batting averaged plummeted 40 points and he broke the single season strikeout record with a ridiculous 204 Ks. Taking a look at his minor league numbers might be misleading because he never played higher than AA, and he never played more than 37 games at that level. Lots of players can mash in the mid-minors, but are completely lost when they get to AAA, never mind the majors. Reynolds has many holes in his swing and he is unable to lay off a bad pitch. The guy can send a mistake pitch a long way, but now that he is in the major leagues he will have a hard time keeping his batting average over .250 or keeping his strikeouts out of record breaking frequency. If you are looking for power, there's no doubt that Reynolds will supply some, but until he learns how pitchers are getting him out, he will struggle to be consistent.

Prediction: .246 average, 23 HRs, 81 RBI, 176 Ks, 79 runs

Team: Baltimore Orioles
Bats: Left

Position: 1B/3B/DH

Aubrey Huff was one of the up and coming young hitters once upon a time for the Tampa Bay Devil Rays. In 2003 and 2004 he averaged 32 homers, 106 RBI, and a .304 batting average. In the three years prior to last season his numbers just kept on dropping and he saw his homer total go from 22 down to 14, and RBI drop from 92 down to 66, while his average hovered in the .260s. Somehow, Huff found the fountain of youth in 2008 as his numbers jumped all the way back to his Tampa Bay days with 32 homers and 108 RBI. So what changed with Huff? Hard to say for sure, but more important than what changed is can he do it again? As I said earlier, he did have similar seasons in his past, so it isn’t totally out of the question. If I drafted Huff, I wouldn’t expect those statistics. After Nick Markakis, there isn't another bat in the Baltimore lineup that scares you, so Huff probably won't see as many good pitches to hit in 2009 either. Brian Roberts is good, but not a guy you pitch around. He still should have a good season and help you out somewhat in the power categories, but look for a fairly significant drop.

Prediction: .285 average, 27 homers, 89 RBI, 77 runs scored

Team: Milwaukee Brewers
Bats: Right

Position: 2B

A guy with 20/30 potential, Weeks has never been able to play more than 129 games in a season, and two of his four years he has failed to play 100. Besides the fact that he spends his life on the DL, Weeks will also kill you in the batting average department, only getting out of the .230s once in his career. Weeks has a rare combination of speed and decent power, and at second base that makes him all the more valuable if you miss out on the big guys. Not only has his production been a concern in the past, but he was also benched for most of the end of the season after the team acquired Ray Durham. Durham left via free agency, so there isn't that competition for Weeks, but it just shows the concern the team had for him as well. Like I said earlier, he has had decent pop in his bat throughout his career, but his RBIs are borderline on embarrassing. He had knee surgery following the season last year, but it isn’t supposed to hinder him coming into 2009. I’ve gotten seduced by Weeks’ potential before, but I won’t let it happen again. Don’t you be fooled either.

Prediction: .239 average, 11 homers, 41 RBI, 75 runs (109 games)

Team: Colorado Rockies

Team: Pittsburgh Pirates

Team: Arizona Diamondbacks

Team: Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim
Throws: Left

Position: RP

Fuentes had perhaps the best season of his career, with a 2.73 ERA and 30 saves. Not only that, but the guy did have a great strikeout ratio (82 Ks in 62 IP). However, he is just one year removed from BEING removed from the closer's role in favor of Manny Corpas. In the previous two seasons, Fuentes had 13 blown saves and his his ERA was over 3.00. Although he has been an All-Star in the National League before, Fuentes now makes a move to the American League which brings with it a whole new set of hitters to figure out. Considering the fact that if Corpas hadn't completely lost his ability to throw strikes in 2008 Fuentes wouldn't even have gotten the opportunity, it doesn't instill a lot of confidence that he will be able to translate his success to the superior league. Given the fact that he got a pretty lucrative contract, chances are Fuentes will be on a pretty long leash, but with Jose Arrendando behind him, the pressure will be there for Fuentes to perform. He certainly won't make the All-Star team, and chances are his statistics won't be great.

Prediction: 3.45 ERA, 26 saves, 1.33 WHIP, 73 Ks

Team: New York Mets
Bats: Left

Position: 1B

Carlos Delgado was on his way to being run out of town in New York until manager Willie Randolph was fired and Delgado started hitting like it was 1999. Don't be mistaken, there is a long history of great production with Delgado, but there is one thing to consider very strongly. Father Time (or Mother Nature if it is a girl reading this) doesn't miss anyone and Delgado is starting to get up there in age. To expect 38 homers again from a 36 year old is a little much. It is obvious that he had some sort of problem with former Mets' manager Willie Randolph, because his statstics after he was gone are staggering. However, the year before in 2007, Delgado had his worst season in many, many years. His 24 homers were the lowest he had since 1995 and his .258 average was also his lowest since '95. If you are looking for a prediction for him in 2009, you can expect Delgado to take a fairly considerable step back but still be a serviceable option at first base.

Projection: .285 average, 27 homers, and 90 RBI

Team: St. Louis Cardinals
Bats: Right

Position: OF

As a Cardinals fan, this one is tough to write, but I have to be impartial. Ludwick broke out in a BIG way in 2008 with an All-Star season of .299 batting average, 37 homers, and 113 RBI. He toiled a long time without a starting job with the Rangers and Indians but thrived as soon as the Cardinals gave him the everyday chance. Now, Ludwick did hit for power at all levels of the minors, as well as his limited action while in the major leagues. For example, in 2006 he hit 28 homers at AAA, so it isn’t absolutely crazy to expect another fine season from him. Another .300 average is most likely out of the question, and although he has hit for power throughout his career, another 35+ season is a lot to hope for. Outside of Rich Harden and Roy Oswalt, the NL Central isn't full of aces, so Ludwick won't fall completely apart. In a crowded Cardinals outfield, Ludwick will will not have a problem finding at-bats, but I do not expect him to excel again at the same level.

Prediction: .275 average, 27 HRs, 87 RBI

David Freese (R/R) -- Cardinals -- With Troy Glaus likely to miss the first month or so of the season it is my belief that David Freese will open the season as the Cardinals 3B. Freese has one of those natural swings that translates into high BA and has progressed into plus power. At 26, he is getting a late start on his pro career but seems to have some veteran savvy that shows in his ability to shorten his swing and hit to the opposite field with authority. As his name suggests, Freese is prone to dry spells in which he strikeouts in bunches. After making the leap from A to AAA last season he led the Cardinals organization in OPS (.911) and RBI (91). He is in prime position to make the team now and see a lot of playing time in Glaus' absence. Keep a close eye on him in spring training and if the batting average holds true, take a shot on him in the later rounds of your draft.

Those are a few of the guys I have on my radar heading into spring training. What are your thoughts? Agree? Disagree? Post your comment below or email me at jeff@fantasybaseballsearch.com

Labels: 3b, 3b prospects, alex gordon, dallas mcpherson, david freese, josh fields, pablo sandoval, third base

Team: Chicago Cubs

Team: Tampa Bay Rays

This comment was left on a post I wrote on January 25, 2009 titled Our Expert Mock Draft 1/19/2009 Analysis & Strategy:

"The results of the draft was published somewhere and you supposedly finished last according to the Baseball HQ projections AND the "all projections." so why should we listen to you? "

I thought this was a great question and one that was at the very least entertaining. I just wish I knew who it was since whenever I get comments like these the person never reveals themselves and hides in the shadows of the masses as Mr. Anonymous. First off, I have to give Mr. Anonymous credit for even putting this post and the draft together. First he had to find the results of the draft on another site or on Mock Draft Central. Then he had to come to Fantasy Baseball Search and read about 10 posts in just to find this buried post and then of course actually read it and then leave the rather strange comment. What drives a person to go to that length just to question a person's work? I mean Mr. Anonymous must have friends and family. Doesn't he have better things to do then to bust my chops because my draft wasn't projected well or for that matter why is Mr. Anonymous even coming to my site and reading my blog if he just wants to ask why he should listen to me. Doesn't make sense.



Mr. Anonymous I'll answer your question. First off, the draft was a expert mock draft, not to be confused with the kiddy style drafts you are probably in. That means I was facing off against 10 guys who knew what they were doing and are very good at it. I did say 10, its not bad math, but there was one I don't think he knew what he was doing. So finishing last in an expert mock draft really doesn't matter. I think what matters is that I was actually invited to an expert mock draft. Maybe, and I mean JUST MAYBE someone else felt I was skilled enough to draft and hold my own against some of the top experts in the industry.

Now, as for those projections from Baseball HQ, Fantasy Sherpa, and Masterball. All of those are highly respected sites and they do great work. However, I don't play by their rules. I have my own formula for success and frankly I'd rather not have some preset computer derived projections in January tell me I had the best draft. Really, I don't want that to be that guy. My formulas are based on a series of variables and projected statistics. Now, while there are guys in the industry who don't respect my calculations not because they are wrong, but bring up my sometimes bad grammar and pronunciation as reasons I suck. Of course unlike some of my detractors, including Mr. Anonymous I'm a proven winner. They simply are not.


So Mr. Anonymous, what you can take form those projections is this. Baseball HQ has its own philosophy for fantasy baseball projections. They are great, and I respect them, but they aren't mine. Same goes for Masterball and Fantasy Sherpa. You see Mr. Anonymous this is a game. The beauty of this game is you have several choices. You can choose to get your information from Baseball HQ or Fantasy Baseball Search. As a matter of fact you can get information from dozens of sites offering you the best information in the land we call America.

Of course Mr. Anonymous you can choose to listen to who is most important, the man with the only real opinion that matters. That's right, the man who goes home to Ms. Anonymous every night. You!
If you don't like the advice I'm giving cause rather then base it on what I say or what I've done you'd rather base it on a expert mock draft then do so. Understand this. I never care that my drafts are rated high by other experts. Although its true that I like to hear warm and fuzzies about the work I do and I always appreciate kind words I honestly don't do the work just for "Atta boys". I do the work so guys like you Mr. Anonymous, the people looking for some help, advice or maybe you just feel like reading some fantasy baseball work will come to my site and get what they need. Heck, if I get one guy who comes to my site, gets the help he needs and then wins his fantasy league. That made it all worth it. So to wrap up Mr. Anonymous, remove your mask and show us your identity and come to us with your questions. We are always happy to oblige and we'd love to get to know you.

Team: New York Yankees
Throws: Right

Position: SP

Despite the ridiculous salary that the Yankees gave Burnett, he is due to be a bust this season. Let's take a look at a few reasons why. First, he had never won more than 12 games in any season before 2008 (can you say, contract year? I can). In his ten year career, he has only started 30 games twice, and thrown over 200 innings three times. Burnett spends more time on the Disabled List than Britney Spears spends on the cover of gossip magazines. Many players also often will have a hard time in their first year on the Yankees, especially recently. Burnett has pitched in Florida and Toronto in his career, which are basically wastelands of baseball coverage. Sure, the Jays have some rabid fans, but the pressure in New York will make Toronto look like Candy Land. If I have to say one positive thing about Burnett it would be that when he actually does pitch, he will get you a good number of strikeouts, as shown by his career high 231 last season. He has always gotten you about a strikeout an inning throughout his career. However, before last season's "breakout" Burnett was basically a .500 pitcher who struck people out. Would you pay $85 million for that? Would you draft him among the top 20 pitchers? Believe me, the guy will be drafted well before his value would dictate. Don't be the one to stretch thinking you are going to get 18 wins or 200 Ks again, the odds are just not in your favor given Burnett's history.

Prediction: 10-8, 4.12 ERA, 1.31 WHIP, 132 Ks, 21 starts

Team: New York Yankees
Bats: Right

Position: SS

How many more years is Derek Jeter going to be drafted just because of his name? Sure he gives you a good average, but even that average has slipped from .344 to .300 in the past three seasons. But his power numbers, which were never that great to begin with, have all been on a steady decline. In the same three year stretch, his homers went from 14 to 11, RBIs from 97 to only 69, and runs scored down from 118 to only 88. Hell, even his steals dropped from 34 to 11. He might actually even slightly improve those numbers in 2009, but even if he gains say 10% of his numbers back, does that excite you at all? In our opinion, Jeter has gone from a top three guy at shortstop to maybe out of the top 10, and that's at a weak position. He is now 34 years old, so how many even decent years does he have left? Yes, he is a Yankee legend, but don't be the owner who gets sucked into picking Jeter based on name value. Wouldn't you get more value out of Troy Tulowitzki, Jhonny Peralta, or even J.J. Hardy. I know that is blasphemy in the Bronx, but even Mike Aviles had close to similar numbers and he started the year in the minors. Don't be caught in the past, fantasy stardom is over for #2.

Prediction: .289 average, 12 HRs, 72 RBI, 92 runs scored

Team: Colorado Rockies
Bats: Left

Position: 1B

The writing had been on the wall for a while with Helton that things were not pointed in the right direction anymore because his production had been dropping off some. But now, the injury bug bit pretty hard last year, allowing him to only play in 83 games. Even in half a season the numbers were putrid. In 2006 and 2007 Helton had obviously fallen way down people's draft boards, but he was still providing you with a .300+ average and 80-90 RBI. If you take his numbers from last year and double them (making it just over a full season), he would have connected on 14 HRs and driven in a whopping 58 runs. Couple that with a .264 batting average and I have just one word for you. OUCH!!! At age 35, the biological clock is ticking with Helton and there is no reason to think that the power is ever coming back. Now if he is going to start to break down he goes from what was a decent UTIL spot option to not even worth having on your team. If that doesn't make him a total bust for 2009, add in the fact that the Rockies have a great young player in Ian Stewart that needs to start playing everyday. The Rox would love to play him at 3B and move Garrett Atkins to first, and where does that leave Helton??? If he doesn't produce quickly, it could find him riding the pine. His ridiculous salary ($16.6 million) might be the only thing that keeps him on the field. Please stay away!

Prediction: .272 average, 17 HRs, 68 RBI, 54 runs scored (will be replaced before season's end)

Team: Cleveland Indians
Throws: Right

Position: RP

After years of disappointing his fantasy owners with his inability to stay on the mound, Kerry Wood had a MOSTLY healthy season following his transition to closer. He took a quick trip to the DL, but it didn't last long. Even better than just staying healthy, Wood actually pitched pretty well too. He did blow six opportunities, but his total of 34 saves were among the best in the National League. There are two reasons that Wood is considered a bust heading into 2009. First, the guy has spent the better part of a decade on the Disabled List, do you really think that he will be able to string together two fairly healthy years in a row? The odds in Vegas are set at about 1,000 to 1 last I checked. Second, the transition from the National League to the American League could be a problem for Wood. It is well known that the lineups in the American League are better, and it's not only because of the DH. Many pitchers have struggled with the league change, and Wood could be no different. For a closer his ERA of 3.26 is high, now moving to the more offensive league, that number could go even higher. He did do some nice things last year, namely his strikeouts and WHIP, but if you draft Wood, don't do it as your number one closer, and PLEASE have a backup plan for when he gets hurt.

Prediction: 3.56 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, 26 saves, 69 Ks, two trips to the DL

Team: Atlanta Braves
Bats: Switch

Position: 3B

Sure, the guy won the NL batting title last year, but was he there for you when it counted? Did he miss time throughout the season, leaving you playing someone like Pedro Feliz or Scott Rolen multiple times during the year? Of course he did, he's Chipper Jones. If he didn't get hurt every year you would think the world might be coming to an end. Jones has averaged playing just 124 games over the last three seasons, and why should we think 2009 should be any different. Sure, you can't argue that the guy has talent, but he's 36 and these nagging injuries are really piling up. He just doesn't bounce back quickly from mild things anymore. It is getting to the point where dealing with his injuries just isn't worth the statistics he puts up. He hits for a great average, no doubt there, but the power is dwindling as he was down to 22 homers last season. And as the season wore on the power wore out. He hit just four homers after August 1st. His name and his average will get him drafted much sooner than he should be, so don't be the fantasy owner who stretches too far for this guy. Or if you do, keep the Tums (or Jack Daniels), because you will need it.

Prediction: .309 avg, 21 HRs, 89 RBI, 77 runs scored

Team: Cleveland Indians
Throws: Left

Position: SP

One of the best young pitching prospects in just a few years ago, Laffey has had a couple short stints with the Indians, and has shown small improvements over his time in the bigs. However, in 2007-2008 in AAA Laffey was 15-5 with a pretty decent strikeout rate. Last season at the major league level Laffey was 5-7 with a 4.23 ERA. The problem was he nearly walked as many batters as he struck out (31/43). Laffey did show some signs of what he could be with Cleveland. In fact, last May he made five starts and allowed just two earned runs and walked only seven hitters in 34 innings. He will need to get his strikeout numbers up to be considered one of the elite someday, but the foundation is definitely there. Laffey all but has a rotation spot lined up, and since he will turn just 24 a few weeks into the season, there is plenty of reason to expect him to continue to improve. It is important for fantasy players to remember that guys like Tim Lincecum and Cole Hamels are the exception to the rule. Most of the time young pitchers will struggle when they first break into the big leagues, but the quality guys will eventually figure it out. It may still be a little too soon for Laffey, but he is certainly worth a gamble, as his talent is undeniable.

Prediction: 12-10 record, 3.75 ERA, 1.31 WHIP, 145 Ks

Elvis Andrus (R/R) -- Rangers -- The Rangers informed their current All-Star shortstop Michael Young that he was moving to third base to make room for Andrus. If that isn't an indication of what kind of upside this kid has then I don't know what is. He will develop slowly as a hitter most likely but has crazy speed and stolen base potential. Elvis also has a patient approach at the plate and will take walks which will make use of his speed even while struggling at the dish. He won't hit many HR's but uses gaps well in racking up extra base hits. Should score a bunch of runs and steal 30+ bases right away making him quite a useful backup SS.

Alcides Escobar (R/R) -- Brewers -- Another extremely talented shortstop that will force a great player to switch positions. In this case the Brewers will have to try J.J. Hardy out at second or third to allow Escobar and his outstanding range to play short. Escobar has a still swing through the zone which allow him to spray line drives to all fields. He has good speed also and will steal 30+ bases very early in his career. He has been adding muscle the past two offseasons and has greatly improved his power potential going forward. Has 20/20 ability and will score quite a bit of runs if hitting high in the Milwaukee order.

Reid Brignac (L/R) -- Rays -- I really like the cut of Brignac's jib. He is a gamer that has fallen behind other shortstop prospects the past two years because of injury and an adjustment at the plate that has resulted in more power. I believe Brignac will make the team out of spring training and find himself platooning with Jason Bartlett against RHP. He is a big kid with good power for a middle infielder. His biggest problem is a lack of patience at the plate and the tendency to become pull happy. But Brignac is a plus defender and a streaky hitter who can carry a team for weeks at a time. He also has above average speed and good baserunning instincts. He could steal 20 bases if given regular playing time. The Rays could use him as trade bait if in contention at the trade deadline as many teams would like to give a talent like his room to grow.

Chris Valaika (R/R) -- Reds -- The problem with Dusty Baker as a manager is that he doesn't believe in giving young players a chance and especially doesn't give them time to adjust at the big league level. Thus, he is likely to give the backup SS job to light hitting Paul Janish rather than tapping a pure hitting machine like Valaika for the job. My guess is that Valaika will so outperform Janish in spring training that it will be hard for the team to not promote him. His work ethic is through the roof and hasn't hit under .300 in his life. Valaika is one of those players who skill set won't blow you away but does everything you want out on the field. Likes to hit to the opposite field which is a great sign for a young hitter and a great tell of someone who is likely to hit for high average.

Those are a few of the guys I have on my radar heading into spring training. What are your thoughts? Agree? Disagree? Post your comment below or email me at jeff@fantasybaseballsearch.com

Labels: alcides escobar, chris valaika, elvis andrus, prospects, reid brignac, shortstop, ss

Team: Colorado Rockies

Team: New York Yankees

Team: Baltimore Orioles
Throws: Right

Position: SP

Although his 10-12 record from 2008 doesn't really do anything to excite you, if you look at some of his performances there is reason for optimism for the future. Guthrie allowed two runs or less in a whopping 17 of his 30 starts on his way to a 3.63 ERA which is great for a guy with a losing record. His strikeout rate was much better in the minors than it has been with Baltimore, including 100 Ks in 136 innings in 2005 so there is hope that he will improve in that area. Also working in his favor is the fact that the Orioles are taking small steps towards becoming more respectable. They signed Nick Markakis long term, Brian Roberts is still good, and they have young catcher Matt Wieters on the way. With a fairly solid bullpen including George Sherrill and the returning Chris Ray, perhaps the O's won't be as much of a laughing stock. That should help change some of those losses and no decisions turn into wins when Guthrie gave up three runs or less. He will be 30 shortly after the season starts, so expecting a large improvement is unrealstic, but after a rough finish to the season Guthrie will be forgotten in many drafts. Given his tough luck and improving team though, look for him to have a better record than he did in 2008 because the rest of his stats weren't bad at all.

Prediction: 14-11 record, 3.76 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, 155 Ks

Team: Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim
Bats: Right

Position: C

Napoli isn't a sleeper in the sense that he is a player that we haven't heard of that will have a good season, everyone knows about him. However, between injury, Jeff Mathis, Jose Molina, and general ineffectiveness, Napoli has never played more than 99 games in a season. However, Mathis has not shown that he can be a major leaguer, and Molina is now in the Bronx. So, as long as Napoli can stay healthy and hit consistently, there's no reason that he can't get up to 130 games. He has shown some impressive power throughout his career in the majors, and his batting average has climbed for three straight seasons. Given his major and minor league statistics, hoping for that average to get higher than the .273 it was in 2008 seems unrealistic. He is, however, one of the best options at the position if you are looking at power. Napoli hit twenty homers in just 78 games, but somehow he only drove in 49 runs. In a roto league, Napoli will have more value than in a points league given his power, he won't kill you in batting average, but isn't as much help in RBI and runs as you would like. Another 20+ homer season seems a given, and his other numbers should continue to improve as well.

Prediction: .264 avg, 27 HRs, 69 RBI, 57 runs