Given the struggles/injuries to Phil Hughes and Ian Kennedy, the Yankees were basically forced to give Kei Igawa another shot at the majors (not to mention his huge contract). Well, Igawa was back to his old major league self on Friday, as he got spanked around again. Igawa lasted just three innings, gave up 11 hits, six runs and didn't strike anyone out. Do not touch Igawa if he was the last pitcher on Earth.

40+ year old Tigers pitcher Kenny Rogers was a little bit more than serviceable for the fourth consecutive start. During this time, Rogers hasn't given up more than three runs, and has run his record up to 3-3. It would take either a 16 or more team league, or a desperate injury situation before I picked up Kenny Rogers though.

From the very old to the very young, Brewers' rookie Manny Parra has moved to the land of the unownable (is that a word?). Parra has still yet to get through more than 5.1 innings, and has yet to give up less than two runs. He needs to show any sign of consistency before you can even think about adding him to your roster. Continue to monitor Parra, but if he keeps pitching like this, he should spend the whole year on the waiver wire.

After a really tough start, it looks like Ted Lilly is back to the form he showed in 2007. Lilly threw his fourth straight start in which he allowed three runs or less, and today he struck out ten batters in just seven innings. If he happened to be dropped in your league, definitely find a way to get Lilly on your roster in most traditional leagues.

For the second time in three starts, James Shields threw a shutout tonight. Of course he threw a total stinker out in the start between the shutouts, but he is absolutely a must start every time out. Tonight was his best start yet, as he allowed only one hit. Shields is keeping the strikeout level in the ball park of one per inning, and is turning himself into a top 20 pitcher.

Jimmy Rollins made the most of his return to the Phillies lineup Friday night, as he hit his third homer of the season. I'm not breaking any news here, but the reigning MVP needs to get immediately back into your lineup now that he is off of the DL.

Mariners 1B Richie Sexson was hit with a six game suspension after he charged the mound and threw his helmet at the opposing pitcher. Sexson is appealing the suspension, and was in the starting lineup on Friday. This shouldn't be big fantasy news, Sexson lost his fantasy appeal years ago.

C.C. Sabathia has now thrown four straight impressive starts. Ok, there was a four earned run game, but in that one he was cruising until he had just had one bad inning. Sabathia struck out nine in just seven innings, while giving up just one run. Even with this good start, his ERA is still 6.55, however, that is way down from the 13.50 it peaked at. Sabathia will go back to being a top ten pitcher after his horrible start.

For the second time in three games Alex Gordon has left the yard. Gordon is looking to improve on his disappointing rookie season, and for the most part he is doing that. After having his average around the .230-.240 range in 2007, Gordon is hitting nearly .290 in 2008 with now five homers and nearly 20 RBI. I believe it will be 2009 before Gordon realizes the potential numbers that have been thrown out there for him as his ceiling, but he should have a very respectable 2008. Look for .285, 23 HRs, and 85 RBI.

Rangers' rookie Brandon Boggs has been impressive since he was called to the majors. Boggs did hit 19 HRs in just 104 games in AA in 2007, so he has some pop, but he isn't listed as one of the top few prospects for the Rangers. In 11 games for the Rangers, Boggs is hitting .385 with two homers and eight RBI. If you have an empty or unproductive roster spot, you can give him a chance, but don't expect too much and you won’t be disappointed.

Oh, my, Lance Berkman is a man possessed. As of right now Berkman is 2-2, raising his average to .378 and hit his 14^th double and 12^th HR of the year. He is exceeding his expectations by so much it is ridiculous. Berkman is capable of 40 homers, and it looks like this season he may approach that number.

As always, your questions (adds, drops, trades) and comments are welcome at fightingchancefantasy@gmail.com. I guarantee a response within 18 hours.

Ok, I think I finally figured out what this melee is all about. Forget the differences on closers or hitters between industry experts. It is really much deeper than that. What I have figured out is something we all already knew, that each "Expert" has their own philosophy. I took this one step further and examined the several different philosophies and broke it down into to groups; The Strategists and The House Rules. Its really that simple and I will explain.



If anyone doesn't know, the term "house rules" is famous from Las Vegas and describes the gambling rules and philosophies for playing in the casinos, hence the house rules of blackjack. They always tell you double down on 11, never hit on 17 or above, if the dealer has a bust hand, its safest to for you to "stay". Those are rules we all take to the Blackjack table and play with. The same can be said for Fantasy Baseball. Now, the "House Rules Experts" (HRE) are certainly in the majority at this time and their philosophies on winning all center around playing by the fantasy baseball house rules. If you listen to these HRE's on the radio or read their blogs you will tend to notice similarities on the way they approach fantasy advice. Here are a few examples;

1. They always give advice from the point of view of a 5x5 rotisserie league.

2. They will always have ironclad rules such as no closers early, hitters are a must, etc...

3. They tend to update their rules at the beginning of the season like get power hitting outfielders in 2008, they are scarce.



Normally House Rules are simple to follow and rigid in their construction. If you follow them and you have lady luck on your side (just like Vegas) then you can certainly win your leagues. The problem with house rules are they cannot conform quickly enough to changes throughout the season and certainly do not apply to all league types. They can't be applied to Rotohog.com, H2H, or even points leagues. So house rules really only apply to the most common of league types the 5x5 rotisserie, but still that leaves out allot of owners. Another problem with house rules is they are the same year to year with minor modifications. The whole closer rule has been in place for years and certainly needs to change with the times such as the closer role has changed. However, it hasn't. We will get more into this fascinating philosophy later in this article.



Then there are the up and coming strategists, which I consider myself one. Strategists have been around since the beginning of time. If you want to spot a "Strategist Expert" look for the experts who plays and strategizes the game day-by-day, week-by-week, month-by-month. There is only one ironclad rule for a strategist, "There are no rules". A strategist will play his team based on his own personal philosophies of winning and in most cases will not bend.
Just because the common though in fantasy baseball is outfield power is scarce doesn't mean you should draft around that theory. A strategist will develop their own theory and draft around it as such. Now there are draw backs for strategists. They will tend to over think situations, trades, and players to start. Also, if their strategy is wrong from the get-go it will be hard to change strategy midway and still win your league. Still, it's the philosophy of trusting your instinct that guides the strategist.



So after reading all that you are asking me, "True GURU, which is better? Which philosophy should I listen too for great advice?



Obviously since I'm a "Strategist Expert" (SE) myself I will tell you that that is the way to go. I feel there is a revolution in the air and the new breed of expert coming out like myself, Patrick DiCaprio and others consider the strategy of the game, and this is causing a stir in the industry especially amongst the old-school experts. In my opinion, they should be scared because the advice they are giving out just simply doesn't apply anymore to all facets of the game. I'll say this, if you are new to the game of fantasy baseball, otherwise a novice, its great to learn the house rules and from HREs. Once you become more advanced, you have to move on and take yourself to the next level of developing your own winnings strategies that apply to your league. Here is an example. I'm in 6 leagues right now. Here are the league types:

16x16 Roto (this league stinks)

5x5 Roto Head-to-Head (expert league)

Total Points League

Total Points Head-to-Head

5x5 Roto Head-to-Head

Rotohog.com League



Not one of those leagues are a standard 5x5 rotisserie league, so the house rules just simple don't apply by default to any of them. For example in the points league closers are very valuable, so its best to have 5, and have good ones with a total innings maximum. So the argument over closers is in favor of the strategist. We can do that all day, but you get the point.



"House Rules Experts" play it safe. Think about it. If everyone says take Jose Reyes #2 overall, and they are right, then they all pat themselves on the back. If they are wrong they will all say, "well we all got it wrong." However, I disagreed with that philosophy and saw beyond the hype and felt Hanley Ramirez was a far superior shortstop and in the expert league took him 3rd overall directly after Jose Reyes. Who won that battle so far?
Then there was the talk of getting closers late in the draft or even free agency. I remember when I was discussing this during an expert draft it was said that you shouldn't take a closer early when you can get "Todd Jones or Joe Borowski much later in the draft."
I wonder how that "house rules" advice is holding up?

Basically comparing the two philosophies is like comparing the Yankees and Red Sox since the year 2001. Both have different ideas of building a championship team. The Red Sox used sabermetrics, team chemistry, an infusion of youth, and a few high priced veterans to get two rings. The Strategist Expert is the same. We believe you have to do lots of little things to win the championship and just drafting or picking up free agents is enough.

The Yankees philosophy was born to lose. They went out and signed huge contracts with every high-priced veteran they could find like Jason Giambi, Roger Clemens, Mike Mussina, Johnny Damon, Alex Rodriguez, and more. They didn't consider team chemistry or sabermetrics. They played by the old-school house rules, which they invented as far back as signing Reggie Jackson. Those rules are to have the better team by having the better players. As you can see, they've stunk ever since for a 200+ million dollar payroll.

So maybe some HRE's don't get it. They don't understand that times have changed and taking fancy hitters like Travis Hafner in the 2nd round in 2007 maybe wasn't a good move. They haven;t yet figured out that by simple roster manipulation you can dominate a league or by finding gems in free agency make up for taking a solid closer early. If I ended up with Joe Borowski, Kerry Wood, and Todd Jones after my draft a HRE would tell me I did great.

Mmm...

Of course the HRE would point out Soria, Sherrill, and Lyons and say you could have gotten those guys. Sure House Rules Expert, but I could have the others and frankly having a Mariano Rivera or Joe Nathan is alright in my book cause I know at year end they'll have a job.

Of course offense will suffer unless you get late round pickups on offense like Kevin Youkilis, Josh Willingham, Edwin Encarnacion , or Nate McClouth. Heck even Xavier Nady is looking good.

So when you decide on a philosophy for playing the game avoid the house rules only if you want to win and become a self-sufficient strategist.

There are several offense players right now that are playing very well that weren't drafted in the top 12 rounds or at all. We'd like to point out some players that you should consider for your team that you could get at a low price in a trade or even find on free agency in your league. If you went high for closers and low for some of these guys congratulations!

Kevin Youkilis (40/126, 23 runs, 25 RBI, 6 Hrs, 1 SB, .317 Avg) (19th Round Draft Pick)- We got Youkilis in the 19th round of our expert draft as a backup. He's filled in admirably in the wake of injuries and has been awesome. Most of the time he's a great start at Fenway and not on the road, but if you can get him cheap or in free agency we recommend it. He also qualifies for 1B and 3B in most leagues.

Nate McClouth (45/135, 31 runs, 28 RBI, 9 Hrs, 3 SB, .333 Avg) (NOT DRAFTED)- This guy is on a tear. Most likely you can't get him or even trade for him cause his value is too high. If he goes into a small slump make an offer for him and see if the owner will bite. Otherwise watch his great season.

Ryan Church (40/122, 27 runs, 24 RBI, 6 Hrs, 1 SB, .328 Avg) (19-25th Round Draft Pick)- We expected good things out of Ryan when he came over from Washington, but this is amazing. 6 Home runs and a .328 batting average. He is streaky, but I got him in Free Agency last week, so look for him.

Conner Jackson (39/115, 27 runs, 28 RBI, 5 Hrs, 2 SB, .339 Avg) (15 - 20th Round Draft Pick)- We were high on this guy coming in and he hasn't let us down. He's pounded out 5 home runs and is batting at a .339 clip. He may still be a free agent in your league. Trade for him if you can, he will only improve his numbers except for average.

Jacoby Ellsbury (27/96, 27 runs, 12 RBI, 3 Hrs, 13 SB, .281 Avg) (13-15th Round Draft Pick)- We staked allot of our reputation in this guy and he hasn't let down. He's been slowed by the Red Sox showcasing Coco Crisp for trades and by a minor groin injury. He still has 27 runs and 13 SBs in less than 100 at bats. Get this guy, especially if Stolen bases are big in your league. He is 23 for 23 in his career.

Matt Kemp (38/116, 19 runs, 25 RBI, 3 Hrs, 9 SB, .328 Avg) (11-15th Round Draft Pick)- Another player we were high on since we got to see him play plenty out here in Las Vegas. He was drafted in several leagues much higher, but was cut after his slow start. I got him in a few leagues as a free agent. Trade for him if you can, now is the time.

Josh Hamilton (40/137, 17 runs, 36 RBI, 7 Hrs, 0 SB, .292 Avg) (12-18th Round Draft Pick) - A great story and his move to Texas has been great for him. 7 home runs and 36 RBI. If you can trade for him, consider it. His stock is still undervalued, so a good deal could be made.

Carlos Quentin (28/104, 23 runs, 24 RBI, 8 Hrs, 2 SB, .270 Avg) (NOT DRAFTED)- Not the greatest player on this list, but he's a possible free agent who is absolutely crushing the ball.

Ryan Ludwick (40/126, 23 runs, 25 RBI, 6 Hrs, 1 SB, .317 Avg) (NOT DRAFTED)- He's not guaranteed a starting spot, but his play may create one for him. Batting .317 with 6 home runs and he's a free agent in many leagues.

Mike Jacobs (29/107, 16 runs, 24 RBI, 9 Hrs, 1 SB, .271 Avg) (20-25th Round Draft Pick) - We humped this guy in Spring Training and now look at him. 9 home runs and 24 RBI. Trade for him!

Josh Willingham (31/91, 16 runs, 16RBI, 6 Hrs, 2 SB, .341 Avg) (16-21th Round Draft Pick)- He's hurt right now with some back issues, but before he went down he was batting .341 with 6 home runs. He is the real deal and as long as his back holds up he will be dominating. Trade for him while he's hurt. Great value.

As we hit early May, after completing over a month of the season, I thought it would be interesting to look at a metric I like to check out every so often: xFIP. This is a statistic provided by The Hardball Times, and is similar to DIPS ERA, using the components of HRs allowed, strikeouts, and walks to estimate what the pitcher's ERA "should" be absent luck. It's easier to calculate than DIPS and gives a reasonable estimate. However, I just described the basic FIP stat. I'm actually going to be using xFIP which normalizes the HRs allowed component to a league-average and is based on the number of HRs allowed per outfield fly. This metric now eliminates the flaw in the basic FIP formula that includes actual HRs allowed, rather than expected HRs allowed, which has been shown to be mostly luck related and regress toward 10%-11% of fly balls allowed.

The lists below aren't the exact top 10 leaders and laggards, but rather the more interesting pitchers near the top and bottom. I also only included pitchers who have thrown at least 20 innings so far this year. Just to be clear, an xFIP below actual ERA suggests that the pitcher has been unlucky, whereas an xFIP above actual ERA suggests that the pitcher has been lucky.

Read the rest of the article to find out who made each list!

This has been a challenging week for The True GURU. Even though this blog isn't going to give you any real fantasy advice, it's what I'm been thinking about this week and I thought I would share it with the readers.

I got a decent hammering on my opinions on closers and how the other experts reasoned their view of them. I think I went too far challenging what an expert is and more so trying to define if someone is an expert. I talked to several of my colleagues in the industry this week and there were many points of view on the question of an expert. One industry expert said, "look at the credentials in writing or fantasy baseball job related experience." Another expert pointed out wins in big leagues like TOUT Wars and such. There were more supporting point of views for experts being able to look into numbers with sabermetrics and find answers just like Bill James and the Boston Red Sox did. Finally, there is the experts who have a history of making great picks whatever the method.



As a fantasy manager, I've used expert advice in the past as I'm sure we all have. Some of that advice has been great, some of it has been bad. When I was deciding on how I would do my radio show and blog, I wanted to figure out why that advice was bad and try to deliver advice that was more accurate to more league managers.



Let's face it, this discussion between experts on closers almost has little relevance except in the mind of the expert himself if you aren't playing his game. Think about it for a moment. The expert will create his ideal fantasy baseball situation to apply his advice he offers and sell it to you from that POV. Say you took that advice not to take closers early in the draft and you were in a points league with an innings limit. That would probably be bad advice. Even an H2H 5x5 roto league with inning limits, it would probably be bad advice.



Hold on, what if it was a roto 5x5 league with no maximum on innings, it would probably be good advice. It's hard if not impossible to give advice on those players that are impacted by league rules. We all know it doesn't matter what league you are in, some players are just golden.



I wanted to try and focus on a players potential in several league types (points, roto, H2H) and not just my own and try to lessen the chance bad advice simply on the variation in league rules. Try to combine several theories like Sabermetrics, statistics and others to give a more concrete decision. At least that's my goal.

After talking with my friend and co-host Patrick DiCaprio we came up with what we think an expert might be. We think we've solved this fascinating case on what the definition of an expert. In our discussing, we removed the fact that just because you are an amazing writer, a web site reporter/owner, you win allot of leagues, or make great picks is the definition of an expert, but are at the very least fine reasons to support a person's case. What makes us an expert is the people who listen to us, read us, and take our advice. If that advice is good and consistent, they will comeback and they will be the ones who consider us experts. It is our listeners and readers who determine that we are an expert. It has nothing to do with whether I think I'm an expert or if I think Patrick DiCaprio is an expert. Its you (in this case, the reader). You determine if the advice we offer for your team in your league is the advice you want and need. It's you who decides if our overall philosophy matches yours. It's you that determines if our strategy for winning is a strategy you can and will use.



That is what its all about. So after this blog you will here nothing more about me or anyone else being an expert. I'll leave that up to you.



And by the way, Patrick, RC, an I prefer to be called "gurus" instead of experts if you so offer the courtesy.



Todd "The True GURU" Farino

The Fantasy Baseball Gurus Show Sundays at 7pm EST on Blogtalk Radio.

There's No Place Like Home - Article found on ESPN. We wanted to share it with our readers.

By AJ Mass of ESPN

If you can't find what you're looking for in your own backyard, perhaps you'll never be able to find it all. While most players will tell you they prefer sleeping in their own bed at night, most of the time they're still able to produce away from the friendly confines of their home ballpark. However, while some players' home numbers glow like a beautiful Technicolor picture, their road numbers come through in dreary black and white. As a fantasy owner, you can hope your fortitude will lead you to do the right thing (bench a player) when you see a twister on the distant horizon, but it takes a lot of nerve to actually pull that trigger, especially when your heart might be telling you something different. Unless you want to end up in bed with a cold compress on your head, you should pick up the warning signs these guys are throwing your way:
Kosuke Fukudome, OF, Cubs (Home batting average: .407; road batting average: .227). Fukudome has "blown in" from Kagoshima, Japan and seems to have found a home inside the ivy-covered walls of Wrigley Field. Away from Wrigley, however, that's a horse of a different color.
Jason Bay, OF, Pirates (Home runs at home: 5; home runs on the road: 1). What's interesting here is the Pirates have only 11 homers at home as a team, and they've actually hit more of them on the "yellow-brick" road.

David Ortiz, DH, Red Sox (RBIs at home: 17; RBIs on the road: 4).
Big Papi is more like the Wizard at home; on the road, maybe the scarecrow, flopping around on the ground trying to collect all that lost straw?

Ichiro Suzuki, OF, Mariners (Home stolen bases: 5; road stolen bases: 1).
It's 90 feet between the bases no matter where those bases might happen to reside, but apparently Ichiro's feet simply aren't as fleet if he's not breathing in that fresh "Emerald City" air.
Paul Maholm, SP, Pirates (Home ERA: 0.89 ERA; Road ERA: 8.10 ERA). At home, Maholm is a good, good witch. On the road, his ERA is the most wicked of them all. Have a little fire, Paul! It's time to step up your game and cut down on those long balls you've been giving up in the opposing team's parks.

Jake Peavy, SP, Padres (Home K/9 rate: 9.29; road K/9 rate: 4.50).
We know Petco gives pitchers "da nerve" to take a few chances with their pitch selection, but should it really have that much of an effect on strikeouts? Hmm, sure seems like it does.
Brian Bannister, SP, Royals (Home batting average of balls in play: .183; road BIPA: .288) Sure seems like Bannister knows all too well when he's not in Kansas, er, Kansas City anymore. At the very least, he seems to have the flying monkeys known as luck working against him more when he's on the road.

Troy Percival, RP, Rays (Saves at home: 4; saves on the road: 1):
Okay, so this is more because the Rays win more at home (and also haven't played many on the road yet), but this is also a theme that carries over from last season. The Rays went 29-52 on the road in 2007. If the Rays can't play well enough in their road grays to find the need to call on Troy, then all that rust may well lead to this tin man's demise.

Now that you've been given ample warning of a few players to avoid when the schedule forces them away from the family farm, the choice is yours whether to leave them active. You can be a happy little bluebird and ignore it, but beware of the house falling from the sky and crushing your championship dreams, ruby slippers and all.

OK, so I've gotten hammered in the last few days by some of my expert friends in the industry who feel that closers are a one category play and should not be heavily invested in.

Even know I completely disagree with that I do understand the argument being presented. However, do represent a new breed of expert. One who not only doesn't think that the roto 5x5 is the almighty way of playing fantasy baseball, but also recognizes that thousands of leagues don't play that style either. I'm working on getting those Numbers to show just how many leagues this year weren't 5x5 roto, but I believe when dispensing advice you have to consider H2H and points leagues in the discussion. Now, my background is primarily H2H, but my theory still stands on roto 5x5.

The point I was desperately trying to get across was that when you are drafting, you have to draft according to several factors like rules, what other teams are doing, and your strategy. You also have to make sure you have a balanced team. Now, consider the option that you wait on a closer till the 14th round and you got low tier closer. OK, sure there is a possibility that he would be a great player, but there is also the chance he can stink and lose his job in April (refer to Corpas). Same goes for hitters, some hitters have terrible season like Andruw Jones who was a top pick until last season. Allot of teams got screwed when they picked him. Of course, nearly no one picked Mike Lowell until the extreme later rounds and he exploded.

The point is pick your team where you feel its best. If you want to gaurantee a strong bullpen get Papelbon, KROD, etc.. If you want to take a chance and get more offense, do that. I just don't think your draft philosophy going into the draft should be one of tight set rules like no closers till later.

You may not get enough closers! Finally, they are simply not 1 category players. Even in a roto 5x5 league categories are very tight at the end of the year. What if (the dreaded what if) you were in 8th place in strikeouts nd needed 45 more strikeouts to get to 5th places getting you 3 more points. Your closers are Brain Wilson, George Sherill, and Gagne.

Now imagine your closers are Papelbon, Putz, and Valverde. You get the 50 more strikeouts, and three more roto points and now you are winning the league. I can do the same thing with wins, WHIP, and ERA.

Closers are not one category pitchers.